NEW HOME HIGHLIGHTS EXISTING HOME HIGHLIGHTS · 2013. 12. 20. · October 2013 Monthly Report 2 New...
Transcript of NEW HOME HIGHLIGHTS EXISTING HOME HIGHLIGHTS · 2013. 12. 20. · October 2013 Monthly Report 2 New...
THE BOTTOM LINE… The relationship between supply and demand in the Las Vegas housing market appears to be more balanced today than at any time since the boom-bust cycle began. While this is not to suggest market conditions are ideal, it does indicate that pricing has remained relatively stable in recent months and more in line with incomes. At the same time, supply conditions have moved toward more healthy levels. Effective levels of availability in the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) have risen to 3.3 months. With approximately 8,600 available units
and a reduced pace of closings through the MLS, the environment has improved for those seeking homes. Another key contributor is the reduced number of sales to investors; approximately 60 percent of sales in the first few months of 2013 were to cash buyers, and that figure has dipped down to 44 percent of sales in the MLS. Most telling is the mix of homes that are being sold in the resale market. In October 2013, non-distressed (or equity) sales accounted for 70 percent of all sales, or 7 out of every 10. That figure stood at 45 percent of all sales 12 months ago and a modest 26 percent 24 months ago. To be clear, the market has some dark clouds looming on the horizon, including significant mortgage delinquency and potential investor divestures, but if asked, the REALTOR® community would likely suggest that conditions are getting better as opposed to worse. Price gains over the past 18 months have allowed hopeful home sellers to exit outside of short sale situations, and the market has emerged stronger. While not necessarily a question of health, the key measurement for the coming year will center on sustainability and the prospects for supply and demand conditions to remain aligned particularly if cash buyers begin to exit the market, whether by choice or necessity.
October 2013
Monthly Report
●● NEW HOME CLOSINGS: The number of new home closings held relatively flat (-.05 percent) compared to the same month of the prior year at 577 sales. During the past 3 months, sales volumes are up 7.8 percent, and during the past 12 months, they remain up 47.4 percent.
●● NEW HOME PRICING: Pricing within the new home segment remains elevated as the median price reached $289,521 in October 2013. Compared to one year ago, prices are up 34.0 percent and reflect the first month-to-month gain of any size (+$21,665) since the April to May jump of $17,372 and the May to June increase of $11,160. Median prices essentially stabilized in the June to September timeframe. On a per-square-foot basis, new home prices reached $128, representing a 22.8 percent increase.
●● NEW HOME SUPPLY: The number of new home construction permits pulled in October was up slightly from September and slightly ahead of the 12-month average (587 vs. 566). The top 10 most active builders included: DR Horton (95), Lennar (78), Beazer Homes (71), Ryland (38), American West (34), KB Home (32), Richmond American (29), Harmony Homes (25), William Lyon (25), and Woodside Homes (24).
●● EXISTING (RESALE) HOME CLOSINGS: During October 2013, a total of 3,976 resale units changed hands. Closing volumes are slightly off the prior year (-6.6 percent). During the past 3 months, closings are off 2.8 percent and for the past 12 months they remain down 8.9 percent.
●● EXISTING (RESALE) HOME PRICING: Pricing within the resale market pushed north to $157,500 during Oc-tober 2013 following a three-month stall in the $155,000 range. Compared to a year ago, the median price was up 27.0 percent, and on a per-square-foot basis, the average price was up 31.6 percent to $105.
●● RESALE AVAILABILITY (MLS LISTINGS): Availability in the resale market appears to be treading water in re-cent months, hovering in the 8,000-unit range. However, in recent months, the number of homes being sold through the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) is pulling back, resulting in rising effective availability of 3.3 months (more than two times the 1.3 months reported one year ago).
●● BANK FORECLOSURES (REPOSSESSIONS): Bank repossessions totaled 347 during October, which was 32.4 percent higher than October of the prior year. Despite the recent uptick, foreclosures are down 47.4 percent on a year-to-date basis.
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NEW HOME HIGHLIGHTS EXISTING HOME HIGHLIGHTS
NEW HOME MARKET SNAPSHOT Value Annual Growth
Median Home Price $289,521 +34.0%Average Price Per Square Foot $127.70 +22.8%
No. of Closings - Month 577 -0.5%No. of Closings - Year-to-Date 6,118 +44.7%No. of Closings - Last 12 Months 7,280 +47.4%
New Home Permits - Month 587 +8.1%New Home Permits - Year-to-Date 5,962 +19.9%New Home Permits - Last 12 Months 6,836 +21.9%
Active Subdivisions 153 -16.8%Average Sales per Subdivision 3.77 +19.6%
EXISTING (RESALE) HOME MARKET SNAPSHOT Value Annual Growth
Median Home Price $157,500 +27.0%Average Price Per Square Foot $104.88 +31.6%
No. of Closings - Month 3,976 -6.6%No. of Closings - Year-to-Date 40,778 -8.9%No. of Closings - Last 12 Months 48,590 -10.8%
Bank Repossessions - Month 347 +32.4%Bank Repossessions - Year-to-Date 2,106 -47.4%Bank Repossessions - Last 12 Months 2,505 -57.5%
MLS Listings (Available) 8,631 +81.1%Effective MLS Inventory (in Months) 3.3 +146.8%
October 2013Monthly Report
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New Home New Home Median New Home New Home Active Average Sales Closings Closing Prices Avg $/SqFt Permits Subdivisions Per Subdivision
Oct-11 323 -0.6% $197,443 -8.2% $98.42 -4.5% 197 -28.9% 243 6.6% 1.33 -6.8%
Nov-11 347 -11.3% $207,286 3.0% $95.51 -9.6% 250 64.5% 240 4.8% 1.45 -15.3%
Dec-11 365 4.0% $211,265 -3.5% $93.17 -8.9% 384 30.2% 235 3.1% 1.55 0.9%
Jan-12 215 -5.3% $211,970 1.8% $92.13 -7.8% 222 -4.7% 235 0.4% 0.91 -5.7%
Feb-12 286 7.5% $196,483 3.3% $95.40 -1.7% 236 0.0% 241 2.6% 1.19 4.8%
Mar-12 348 23.0% $204,370 3.0% $98.46 3.8% 514 43.2% 225 -5.9% 1.55 30.6%
Apr-12 350 38.9% $202,653 6.7% $95.05 2.8% 596 90.4% 220 -9.8% 1.59 54.0%
May-12 413 45.4% $197,945 2.0% $96.18 -1.3% 654 50.0% 221 -11.2% 1.87 63.8%
Jun-12 373 4.5% $193,875 -3.7% $103.32 5.5% 648 41.8% 217 -13.2% 1.72 20.4%
Jul-12 468 49.0% $204,111 1.6% $98.19 1.7% 549 92.0% 212 -13.1% 2.21 71.5%
Aug-12 602 59.7% $204,737 3.5% $105.44 8.6% 573 70.0% 206 -14.2% 2.92 86.0%
Sep-12 592 48.7% $198,845 -3.1% $102.64 4.0% 437 73.4% 186 -22.8% 3.18 92.7%
Oct-12 580 79.6% $216,045 9.4% $103.98 5.6% 543 175.6% 184 -24.3% 3.15 137.1%
Nov-12 557 60.5% $219,000 5.7% $109.56 14.7% 477 90.8% 181 -24.6% 3.08 112.8%
Dec-12 605 65.8% $219,963 4.1% $108.21 16.1% 397 3.4% 184 -21.7% 3.29 111.7%
Jan-13 512 138.1% $220,355 4.0% $116.05 26.0% 599 169.8% 168 -28.5% 3.05 233.1%
Feb-13 497 73.8% $231,573 17.9% $119.45 25.2% 463 96.2% 152 -36.9% 3.27 175.5%
Mar-13 581 67.0% $222,201 8.7% $114.09 15.9% 680 32.3% 153 -32.0% 3.80 145.5%
Apr-13 650 85.7% $238,194 17.5% $109.08 14.8% 643 7.9% 151 -31.4% 4.30 170.6%
May-13 714 72.9% $255,565 29.1% $113.79 18.3% 764 16.8% 155 -29.9% 4.61 146.5%
Jun-13 616 65.1% $266,725 37.6% $116.21 12.5% 606 -6.5% 151 -30.4% 4.08 137.3%
Jul-13 636 35.9% $267,254 30.9% $118.86 21.0% 514 -6.4% 152 -28.3% 4.18 89.5%
Aug-13 755 25.4% $266,389 30.1% $122.99 16.6% 641 11.9% 153 -25.7% 4.93 68.9%
Sep-13 580 -2.0% $267,856 34.7% $126.08 22.8% 465 6.4% 155 -16.7% 3.74 17.6%
Oct-13 577 -0.5% $289,521 34.0% $127.70 22.8% 587 8.1% 153 -16.8% 3.77 19.6%
New Home Sales
Note: Growth rate (%) reflects year-over-year changes
SalesTraq Fast-Facts Page 1
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October 2013Monthly Report
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Existing Home Sales
Note: Growth rate (%) reflects year-over-year changes
Existing Home Median Existing Home Bank Available MLS Effective MLS Closings Closing Prices Avg $/SqFt Repossessions Listings (Resale) Inventory (in months)
Oct-11 4,200 -0.7% $105,000 -4.5% $67.33 -7.8% 928 -45.1% 12,228 -24.9% 3.2 -30.4%
Nov-11 4,572 5.0% $103,000 -14.7% $66.58 -12.3% 984 2.2% 11,086 -33.0% 3.2 -31.9%
Dec-11 5,153 14.2% $104,900 -8.7% $67.13 -9.1% 904 -40.8% 10,540 -35.3% 2.8 -33.3%
Jan-12 4,418 11.2% $100,000 -8.3% $65.10 -10.7% 1,021 -36.8% 9,536 -37.8% 2.8 -42.9%
Feb-12 4,331 7.7% $101,000 -7.3% $65.83 -8.9% 620 -35.2% 7,873 -45.3% 2.2 -53.2%
Mar-12 5,299 2.4% $105,000 -2.8% $67.44 -3.9% 356 -83.2% 5,897 -58.7% 2.1 -48.8%
Apr-12 4,657 -7.3% $107,000 0.5% $68.57 -2.0% 258 -86.1% 4,738 -66.6% 1.3 -66.7%
May-12 4,833 -5.6% $112,000 5.9% $75.55 7.3% 408 -82.2% 4,577 -67.1% 1.1 -68.2%
Jun-12 4,658 -18.3% $115,000 9.2% $78.20 14.2% 313 -84.0% 4,636 -66.5% 1.2 -60.6%
Jul-12 4,078 -16.2% $116,000 11.5% $79.81 16.9% 285 -81.3% 4,713 -62.8% 1.4 -58.4%
Aug-12 4,526 -21.1% $119,000 14.5% $81.80 18.7% 272 -81.9% 4,911 -62.7% 1.4 -56.2%
Sep-12 3,684 -26.0% $122,781 17.0% $79.60 16.1% 210 -81.0% 4,930 -61.4% 1.6 -51.3%
Oct-12 4,257 1.4% $124,000 18.1% $79.67 18.3% 262 -71.8% 4,767 -61.0% 1.3 -57.8%
Nov-12 3,776 -17.4% $125,000 21.4% $82.09 23.3% 186 -81.1% 4,694 -57.7% 1.5 -53.8%
Dec-12 4,036 -21.7% $130,000 23.9% $83.88 24.9% 213 -76.4% 4,516 -57.2% 1.3 -53.7%
Jan-13 3,371 -23.7% $130,000 30.0% $87.59 34.5% 253 -75.2% 4,226 -55.7% 1.6 -44.3%
Feb-13 3,637 -16.0% $130,000 28.7% $86.96 32.1% 212 -65.8% 4,022 -48.9% 1.3 -41.0%
Mar-13 3,862 -27.1% $138,151 31.6% $90.42 34.1% 205 -42.4% 4,193 -28.9% 1.2 -42.6%
Apr-13 4,456 -4.3% $143,500 34.1% $96.84 41.2% 188 -27.1% 4,316 -8.9% 1.2 -8.6%
May-13 4,685 -3.1% $142,150 26.9% $95.43 26.3% 173 -57.6% 4,806 5.0% 1.3 12.9%
Jun-13 4,199 -9.9% $151,000 31.3% $99.52 27.3% 119 -62.0% 5,750 24.0% 1.6 33.8%
Jul-13 4,455 9.2% $155,000 33.6% $101.96 27.7% 209 -26.7% 7,667 62.7% 2.2 60.7%
Aug-13 4,249 -6.1% $155,000 30.3% $101.68 24.3% 165 -39.3% 8,319 69.4% 2.6 94.7%
Sep-13 3,888 5.5% $154,995 26.2% $102.07 28.2% 235 11.9% 8,842 79.4% 2.8 80.3%
Oct-13 3,976 -6.6% $157,500 27.0% $104.88 31.6% 347 32.4% 8,631 81.1% 3.3 146.8%
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October 2013Monthly Report
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Existing Home Sales NUMBER OF SALES MEDIAN CLOSING PRICE
Distressed Sales Categories Non- Total Distressed Sales Categories Non- Total Auction REO Short Sale Distressed All Types Auction REO Short Sale Distressed All Types
Oct-11 506 1,789 804 1,101 4,200 $94,750 $103,500 $111,500 $105,000 $105,000
Nov-11 530 1,949 908 1,185 4,572 $89,050 $103,000 $113,500 $103,500 $103,000
Dec-11 503 2,121 1,026 1,503 5,153 $85,100 $100,500 $115,000 $109,900 $104,900
Jan-12 550 1,796 888 1,184 4,418 $80,000 $100,000 $110,000 $104,101 $100,000
Feb-12 628 1,679 923 1,101 4,331 $93,801 $99,900 $108,000 $104,500 $101,000
Mar-12 602 2,036 1,078 1,583 5,299 $89,450 $105,000 $109,000 $108,000 $105,000
Apr-12 423 1,652 1,071 1,511 4,657 $92,200 $110,000 $110,000 $108,000 $107,000
May-12 408 1,440 1,219 1,766 4,833 $109,350 $114,000 $110,000 $115,000 $112,000
Jun-12 345 1,217 1,028 2,068 4,658 $101,400 $120,000 $105,000 $120,000 $115,000
Jul-12 355 782 1,267 1,674 4,078 $102,100 $120,000 $111,000 $121,667 $116,000
Aug-12 321 768 1,486 1,951 4,526 $109,000 $127,000 $112,000 $125,000 $119,000
Sep-12 224 548 1,315 1,597 3,684 $112,250 $127,690 $115,500 $130,000 $122,781
Oct-12 290 572 1,493 1,902 4,257 $113,850 $130,800 $117,900 $126,250 $124,000
Nov-12 231 494 1,235 1,816 3,776 $111,000 $137,013 $118,500 $128,000 $125,000
Dec-12 167 484 1,514 1,871 4,036 $110,100 $140,000 $129,450 $130,000 $130,000
Jan-13 235 449 911 1,776 3,371 $127,000 $149,000 $120,000 $134,945 $130,000
Feb-13 242 377 1,103 1,915 3,637 $120,250 $134,000 $126,000 $137,000 $130,000
Mar-13 222 364 1,094 2,182 3,862 $120,050 $143,846 $125,000 $146,000 $138,151
Apr-13 226 419 1,115 2,696 4,456 $135,550 $145,900 $125,118 $150,000 $143,500
May-13 313 376 1,137 2,859 4,685 $110,100 $145,501 $133,000 $150,000 $142,150
Jun-13 252 314 1,015 2,618 4,199 $133,013 $140,376 $135,000 $163,000 $151,000
Jul-13 378 316 933 2,828 4,455 $125,639 $158,250 $137,000 $165,000 $155,000
Aug-13 247 344 807 2,851 4,249 $119,000 $144,950 $137,000 $165,000 $155,000
Sep-13 276 290 604 2,718 3,888 $120,600 $143,250 $140,000 $162,000 $154,995
Oct-13 268 292 643 2,773 3,976 $120,050 $142,250 $149,500 $165,000 $157,500
●● NON-DISTRESSED SALES (69.7%): Non-distressed sales, sometimes referred to as equity sales or transac-tions that do not fall within one of the other three dis-tressed categories listed below, remain elevated relative to recent history. With 2,773 non-distressed resale clos-ings accounting for 69.7 percent of activity, the market has shifted dramatically. Two years ago, 44.7 percent of closings were non-distressed. The median price of non-distressed sales in October 2013 was $165,000, which was up 30.7 percent from a year ago. On a price-per-square-foot basis, the average non-distressed transaction was $112, the highest among all segments and well ahead of the $105 market-wide average.
●● SHORT SALES (16.2%): The number of successful short sales totaled 643 units in October, which represent-ed 16.2 percent of all resale closings. The median price of short sales that ultimately closed reached $149,500, the highest since the mid-2009 timeframe. Compared to last year, short sales prices are up 26.8 percent. The average price per square foot was $89, an increase from $85 in September.
●● BANK-OWNED PROPERTIES (7.3%): REO sales (bank-owned sales) accounted for a minimal 7.3 percent of total activity. With fewer units moving through the foreclosure process, there are simply fewer bank-owned homes to be sold. The median price of REO sales was $142,250 in October, up only 8.8 percent from the prior year. The average price per square foot was $94.
●● AUCTION SALES (6.7%): The count of properties ac-quired at auction was 268 in October, which was down 2.9 percent from September and off 7.6 percent from one year ago. The median price of auction sales was a below-average $120,050 and only 5.4 percent ahead of the prior year. Per-square-foot prices edged up to $81, the lowest among all segments.
October 2013Monthly Report
5Note: Inventory includes available homes (excluding contingent and pending properties) relative to closings.
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89119 4.1
89101 6.5
89110 3.8
89156 5.1
89115 4.4
89030 5.3
89032 2.8
89130 2.8
89149 3.0
89122 3.6
89129 2.4
89031 2.6
89081 3.1
89144 4.0 89145
4.4
89014 2.7
89143 2.9
89166 4.2
89138 2.1
89124
Months of Housing Inventory by Zip Code Las Vegas, Nevada
November 2013 SalesTraq™
89085 2.4 Effective
Housing Inventory By Zip Code (in Months)
Zip Code Inventory Zip Code Inventory
89002 1.7 89119 4.1 89011 5.5 89120 4.9 89012 2.8 89121 2.6 89014 2.7 89122 3.6 89015 2.5 89123 2.8 89030 5.3 89128 3.5 89031 2.6 89129 2.4 89032 2.8 89130 2.8 89044 3.5 89131 2.5 89052 4.0 89134 4.8 89074 2.4 89135 3.7 89081 3.1 89138 2.1 89084 3.2 89139 2.7 89085 2.4 89141 4.4 89086 5.7 89142 2.4 89101 6.5 89143 2.9 89102 5.0 89144 4.0 89103 3.3 89145 4.4 89104 3.3 89146 4.7 89106 3.3 89147 3.7 89107 6.1 89148 4.6 89108 3.0 89149 3.0 89109 4.4 89156 5.1 89110 3.8 89166 4.2 89113 3.9 89169 4.5 89115 4.4 89178 2.7 89117 3.6 89179 4.4 89118 2.4 89183 2.3
Note: Effective inventory (in months) is computed based on available (non-contingent) listings in the Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors’ Multiple Listing Service (MLS) and resale closings in the MLS.
October 2013Monthly Report
6
SalesTraq Fast-Facts Page 5
0500
1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,000
Auction REO Short Sale Non-Distressed
$80,000$90,000
$100,000$110,000$120,000$130,000$140,000$150,000$160,000$170,000
Auction REO Short Sale Non-Distressed
SalesTraq Fast-Facts Page 5
0500
1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,000
Auction REO Short Sale Non-Distressed
$80,000$90,000
$100,000$110,000$120,000$130,000$140,000$150,000$160,000$170,000
Auction REO Short Sale Non-Distressed
010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,00090,000
100,000
'02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12Resale Homes New Homes
$75,000$100,000$125,000$150,000$175,000$200,000$225,000$250,000$275,000$300,000$325,000$350,000
'02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12Resale Homes New Homes
010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,00090,000
100,000
'02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12Resale Homes New Homes
$75,000$100,000$125,000$150,000$175,000$200,000$225,000$250,000$275,000$300,000$325,000$350,000
'02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12Resale Homes New Homes
By Type
Key Statistics
Home Closings Median Home Prices
By PriceEXISTING HOME CLOSINGS
RESALE HOMES NEW HOMES RESALE HOMES NEW HOMES
Closings PricingResale Closings Month 12 Months Median Avg PSF
Auction Sales 268 7% 3,057 6% $120,050 $81
Short Sales 643 16% 12,111 25% $149,500 $89
REO Sales 292 7% 4,519 9% $142,250 $94
Non-Distressed Sales 2,773 70% 28,903 59% $165,000 $112
Total 3,976 100% 48,590 100% $157,500 $105
SalesTraq is a comprehensive residential real estate research and analysis solution. For more than two decades, SalesTraq has been providing home pricing, sales and development data to real estate agents, homebuilders, appraisers, buyers and investors. Our firm also maintains an archive catalogue of nearly 20,000 floor plans of Nevada homes. The following highlights our products and services:
SALESTRAQ STANDARD: A database of new residential con-struction in southern Nevada providing an easy-to-navigate search feature. The product also includes access to nearly 20,000 searchable floor plans, which is ideal for listing pre-sentations, brochures and more.
SALESTRAQ PRO: In addition to the features of SalesTraq Standard, the professional version includes reporting func-tions for residential permits, new home closing data, existing (resale) home closings, final mapped lots and raw land sales activity.
FASTFACTS MONTHLY REPORT: The monthly statistical publication on relevant housing market information trends new and existing housing data. Information spans supply and demand factors, including foreclosure activity and break-downs of the type of transactions taking place.
NEW HOME LINK: This marketing and research tool for REALTORS® assists agents and their clients in identifying relevant new home communities and properties. This powerful tool also allows for increased communication between buyers and their agents.
CUSTOM MARKET RESEARCH: For those with more diverse research and analysis requirements, our team of analysts are available to provide professional consulting services. Our ser-vices include: pricing and absorption analyses, market analy-ses, feasibility studies, market segmentation assessments, product positioning and other research project-specific as-signments.
CRYSTAL BALL SEMINARS: Known for providing timely, ac-curate and insightful presentations, Crystal Ball Seminars is dedicated to an interactive learning and information sharing experience. The seminars are also recognized for networking and business development opportunities.
SalesTraq ● 6385 S. Rainbow Blvd., Suite 105 ● Las Vegas, NV 89118 ● T: 702.949.3333 ● E: [email protected] ● SalesTraq.com
44% 53%of October Sales were CASH
of October Sales were VACANT