New Directions in Disaster Studies
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Transcript of New Directions in Disaster Studies
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The Game Changes
David AlexanderUniversity College London
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Prepare for our world as it is.
Alan Kurdi 2015
Science encourages us to look at realityselectively, not holistically: and yet
we must look at all sides of the problem.
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Humanmisery
povertydisease epidemicsconflictdisplacementdisasters
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Migrationcrisis
Disaster('natural',
technological, social. intentional)
What if...?
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Disturbing trends
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DISASTER
Destructiondamage casualties
Capital Labour
(fast) reformation (slower) repopulation
temporary boomin employmentReconstruction
Recoverycapital displaces labour
unemployment andsocial consequences
Slump
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Recklesslending
Recklessborrowing
DEBT DEMOCRACY
Austerity
Inequality
Marginalisation
Disaffection
Disasterimpacts
Growingvulnerability
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London would be a very resilient city wereit not for the high price of property.
• housing agenda over-influencedby foreign investment companies
• shortage of housing that isnot for investment purposes
• large portion of disposable income spenton housing, less for other purposes
• poor quality and vulnerable housingis a feature of the property market
• personal and family security reduced.
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This situation leavespeople living on the margins of society.
For whom is resilience?
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"Resilience" viewed as a form of oppressionNew Orleans, post-Katrina
the agenda of neo-liberal urbanism.
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Capital is winning against labour:when will the tide turn?
Tax havens and world trade, inequality.
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Mobilising Science toImplement the Sendai
FrameworkJan. 2016
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• consolidate power structures
• augment profits, concentrate wealth
• allow introduction of convenientlyrepressive measures
• permit gratuitous social engineering.
The economic and socialVALUE of disasters
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• it is not necessarily harmed by disaster
• does capital safeguard people or itself?
The cheapness and redundancy of labouris a form of disenfranchisement.
Capital as a resource fordisaster mitigation and recovery
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The alternative economy• black: mafia, drugs, people trafficking,
armaments, vice, illegal investment• grey: person to person
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Displacementand migration
Climate changeadaptation
Disaster responseand mitigation
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Migrants
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• refugees of war, conflict,torture and oppression
• "economic migrants"
• the displaced
• "opportunists" – e.g. myself.
Human mobility
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Migration• voluntary (incentive)• induced (imperative)• forced [trafficked]
Human mobility• temporary (time-limited, limit unknown)• semi-permanent (time limit unknown)• permanent (emigration/immigration)• statelessness.
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• a reaction to global hegemony
• wars and proxy wars -the struggle for power
• globalisation of productionand the exploitation of labour
• a reaction to the mobilityand concentration of capital.
Human mobility
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Have we passed a threshold towardsa new organisation of society in whichhuman mobility is much more central
and important?
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Time to re-examine notionsof geographical inertia.
Places remain, people move.
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welfare mobility
sovereignty identity
entitlementproxy wars
?
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What is welfare?
The provision ofcare to a minimumacceptable standardto people who areunable adequately to look afterthemselves.
But we also needto focus on what welfare is NOT...
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Remittances: alternative welfareHaiti, Nepal, the Philippines
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XenophobiaDistrust ofunfamiliar
people
CompassionDesireto helprefugees
RejectionismIt is not
our problemDistancingNot in myback yard
The role of mass cognitive dissonance
CharityWillingnessto donate
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• prevalence of myths and misassumptions
• migration and evacuation
• informal settlements
• precarious livelihoods
• crises of leadership.
Some parallels between disaster risk reduction (DRR) and human mobility
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Currently the links between DRR andhuman mobility are relatively slight.There are abundant opportunities forthem to become more significant and
powerful.
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Antecedents: 1980 southern Italianearthquake and Italian Governmentpolicy on induced migration
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Disaster and forced migration- in a surprising variety of contexts
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Climate change Terrorism
Displacementand migration
Pandemicsand epidemics
Population increase
Env
iron
ment
al ch
ang
eConflict
Technologicaldisasters and
major incidents
'Natural'disasters
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Justice system
Rights Responsibilities
Moral
Ethical
Legal
Constitution Disaster
Context of disaster
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Conclusions
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Since 1970 the world has changed indirections not mirrored in the concurrent
development of disaster theory.
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Disaster Risk Reduction
or disaster risk creation?
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• disaster risk reduction and climatechange adaptation will partially merge
• global mobility will become a majorfactor in disaster risk reduction
• resilience acquires a double meaning
• vulnerability remains a key concept
• sustainable DRR, sustainable lives.
The future
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Three axioms
Axiom 1Disaster risk reduction (DRR) is about
vulnerability reduction and development.So is human mobility.
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Riskamplification
factors
Riskmitigationfactors
Totalvulnerability
Risk perceptionfactors- +
positivenegative
DIALECTIC
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BENIGN (healthy)at the service of the people
MALIGN (corrupt)at the service of vested interests
interplay dialectic
Justification Development
[spiritual, cultural, political, economic]
IDEOLOGY CULTURE
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Axiom 2Climate change adaptation (CCA) is
about adapting to changing vulnerability.So is disaster risk reduction.
Axiom 3Climate change will be asource of human mobility.In a situation of general
instability, so will disaster.
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Disaster as anegative windowof opportunity
But at the bottomthere was hope...
"Pandora's box"theory of disasters