New Digital Deal for Post COVID economic recovery
Transcript of New Digital Deal for Post COVID economic recovery
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New Digital Deal for Post COVID economic recovery
Alison Gillwald (PhD)
Research ICT Africa
Mandela School of Public Governance
The impact of unequal access to ICT infrastructure on the Geography of
COVID-19 Diffusion
10 May 2020
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v pandemic and lockdown has brought into stark relief the implications of digital inequality not longer only for moving ones’ work, schooling, banking and play online but also for access to social grants, filing for business relief, unemployment and even food relief (life opportunities & survival).
Ruptured informal values chains preventing informal sector to act as usual bugger to global economic shocks.
COVID-19 Pandemic & digital inequality
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7 SDG ICT indicators - 6 targets under SDG Goals 4, 5, 9,17• Digitalisation has been identified as a crucial
ingredient for achieving some SDGs.• Digitalisation plays a crucial role accelerating access
to knowledge, economic growth, job creation, equality - and can create new opportunities for innovation.
• Is critical to facilitating international trade by providing access to and accelerating communication and facilitating payments.
• Digital advancement is commonly linked with growth and economic integration. But the process is not automatic. Technological advancements are not a guarantee of greater trade and economic integration nor social and economic inclusion.
• Understanding what factors limit participation in the digital economy is crucial to policy makers if we are to address digital inequality and realise the benefits of advanced technologies.
• ITU and Broadband Commission have warned that we are far off meeting ICT target for 2030.
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Technology will not necessarily translate to economic development, wage growth or productivity. Unless very intentional balancing of commercial, supply side valuation in allocation of resources to demand side valuation considerations, advanced technologies will exacerbate digital technology rather than alleviate it
Countering the hype of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, 5G, Smart Cities…deflects attention from 2 &3 IR issues of universal access and use…
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Digital Inequality Paradox• While connectivity is clearly a
precondition of digital inclusion, connectivity in a data environment, on its own, does not redress digital inequality
• as more people are connected, digital inequality is increasing
• Not only the case between those online and those offline (as is the case in a voice and basic text environment), but also between those who have the technical and financial resources to use the Internet optimally and those who are barely online.
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Global cooperation to realise global public goods at national level
One of the wickedest policy problems and governance challenges today as a result of rapid digitalisation anddatafication of increasingly complex globalised economy requiring adaptive response to inherent tendency towards concentration and inequality at the national and global governance level and to limit harms and mitigate risks.
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Broadly penetration tracks GNIpc
iNTrODuCTiON 21
against other similar countries and some best perȒ#,/*"/0Ǿ��21�&!"+1&Ɯ"0�1%"�/"�0,+0�#,/�1%"�-,0&1&,+�,/�/�+(&+$Ǿ��+!�1%"/"�6�-,&+10�1,�1%"�/"*"!6�,/�&+1"/Ȓ3"+1&,+�/".2&/"!�1,��!!/"00�&1ǽ��%&0�"5"/ &0"�!/�40�,+�1%"�02--)6Ȓ0&!"��+!��!*&+&01/�1&3"�!�1���3�&)��)"Ǿ�4%& %�&0�1/&�+$2)�1"!�4&1%�1%"�-/& &+$��+!�.2�)&16�of service databases gathered by RIA as well as the !"*�+!Ȓ0&!"�!�1��#,/��,21%��#/& ��&+���/1��ǖǞ.�%"�0" 1&,+��"),4�"5�*&+"0�1%"�)&+(�$"0��"14""+�
the size of the economy (GNI) and per capita incomes, against the nationally representative !"*�+!Ȓ0&!"�&+!& �1,/0� ,))" 1"!��0�-�/1�,#�1%"�After Access Survey, providing some comparison with other large and populous countries, such as Nigeria, Bangladesh and Colombia, that appear 1,�#� "�0&*&)�/� %�))"+$"0�Ȕ�#,/�"5�*-)"Ǿ�)&*&1"!�-,)&1& �)�,/�)"�!"/0%&-� �-� &16��+!�0, &,Ȓ" ,+,*& �&+".2�)&16ǽ�
1.3. COMPArATivE ASSESSMENT OF GLOBAL SOuTH COuNTriES iN THE 2017 AFTEr ACCESS SurvEyAs noted at the outset, ICTs, and particularly mobile 1" %+,),$&"0Ǿ�%�3"��""+�&!"+1&Ɯ"!��0� /&1& �)�!/&3"/0�of social and economic development. Smartphones, in particular, have revolutionised the telecommuniȒcations industry by becoming the principal means of Internet connectivity. These technologies have become the primary platforms for innovation in developing countries and are contributing directly �+!�&+!&/" 1)6�1,�" ,+,*& �$/,41%��+!�',�� /"�1&,+ǽ��0�&$2/"�ǖ�0%,40Ǿ�*,�&)"�-%,+"�-"+"1/�1&,+��+!�Internet use is broadly aligned with Gross National Income (GNI) per capitaǗǕ. &$2/"�Ǘ�0%,40�1%�1�1%"�$�-� ,//")�1&,+�4&1%�1%"�
GNI per capita is also broadly true of the gender gap. �%,2$%����-"/� �-&1��*�0(0�"51/"*"�&+".2�)&1&"0�&+�
Figure 1: Mobile phone ownership, Internet use and GNI per capita�,2/ "0ǿ������ƞ"/�� "00��2/3"6Ǿ�ǗǕǖǜȀ��,/)!���+(Ǿ�ǗǕǖǝ
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Mobile phone ownership Internet use GNI per capita
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Modelling shows that determinants of access education & incomeGender gap and urban-rural divide
iNTrODuCTiON 22
South Africa, the country performs well in relation to $"+!"/�".2&16ǽ�
Although South Africa’s Internet penetration levels compare well with other African and Asian developing countries, it does not perform as well when compared with countries in Latin America with similar incomes. With only half the population online, the potential of the Internet in a developing economy to drive social and economic integration is not optimally tapped.
While an increased number of Internet connections suggests there is a bridging of the digital divide, -�/�!,5& �))6Ǿ���/1���0%,40�1%�1Ǿ��0�*,/"�-",-)"��/"� ,++" 1"!Ǿ�!&$&1�)�&+".2�)&16�&+ /"�0"0ǽ��%&0�&0�+,1�,+)6�1%"� �0"��"14""+�1%,0"�,+)&+"��+!�1%,0"�,ƛ)&+"Ǿ��21��"14""+�1%,0"�4%,�%�3"�1%"�0(&))0��+!�Ɯ+�+ &�)�resources to use the Internet optimally and those barely online. Without policy interventions to reduce
1%"0"�!&0-�/&1&"0Ǿ�,ƛ)&+"�&+".2�)&1&"0�4&))�0&*-)6��"�*&//,/"!�,+)&+"�ȕ�,/�-,1"+1&�))6��*-)&Ɯ"!ǽ��%"/"#,/"Ǿ�as the information society matures, not everyone &0�".2�))6�4"))�0"/3"!��6����0ǽ���+6�&+!&3&!2�)0��+!�households do not use the Internet, or do not have 1%"�!"3& "0�1%"6�+""!�1,�� "00�1%"��+1"/+"1ǽ��%"��ƞ"/�� "00��2/3"6�Ɯ+!0�1%�1��,21%��#/& ��%�0�1%"�%&$%"01�*,�&)"�-%,+"�țǝǙʢȜ��+!��+1"/+"1�-"+"1/�1&,+�/�1"0�țǚǘʢȜ��*,+$�02/3"6"!� ,2+1/&"0ǽ
Digital inequality is even higher among urban and rural area dwellers, with less than half of South Africa’s rural population connected to the internet.
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Figure 2: Gender gap in Internet use�,2/ "ǿ������ƞ"/�� "00��2/3"6Ǿ�ǗǕǖǜ
Figure 3:��/��+Ȕ/2/�)�!&3&!"�&+��+1"/+"1�20"�,2/ "ǿ��ƞ"/�� "00��2/3"6Ǿ�ǗǕǖǜ
Male Female Gap
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Smartphone penetration aligned with Internet penetration
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iNDiCATOrS AND iNDiCES 92
with disparities between urban and rural populations being more substantial. However, the mobile phone $"+!"/�$�-�&0�0&$+&Ɯ �+1�&+��,7�*�&.2"Ǿ���+7�+&���+!��&$"/&��ț0""�&$2/"�ǗǖȜǽ��%"�ǗǕǖǜ��#1"/�� "00��2/3"6�0%,40��,21%��#/& �ȉ0�
0*�/1-%,+"�-"+"1/�1&,+�01�+!&+$��1�Ǚǜ�-"/ "+1Ǿ�),4"/�1%�+�ǜǕȔǝǕ�-"/ "+1�0*�/1-%,+"�-"+"1/�1&,+�in OECD countries as reported by Pew Research Centre6��+!�ǘǚ�-"/ "+1���,3"�1%"��3"/�$"�0*�/1Ȓphone penetration of the surveyed countries. Pew Research Centre estimates smartphone penetration �1�ǚǖ�-"/ "+1Ǿ���#&$2/"�1%�1�&0�#,2/�-"/ "+1�%&$%"/�1%�+�1%"�ǗǕǖǜ��#1"/�� "00�02/3"6ǽ��"��11/&�21"�this difference to the different methodologies "*-),6"!Ǿ�4&1%�1%"�����ǗǕǖǜ��#1"/�� "00�02/3"6�being nationally representative. Despite Kenya having best performance regarding mobile phone -"+"1/�1&,+Ǿ�,+)6��/,2+!���.2�/1"/�,#��"+6�+0�,4+���0*�/1-%,+"ǽ��4�+!���+!��,7�*�&.2"�%�3"�1%"�lowest smartphone penetration, with only four and seven percent respectively of the whole population owning one, which translates into nine percent and ǖǜ�-"/ "+1�,#�*,�&)"�-%,+"�,4+"/0%&-Ǿ�/"0-" 1&3")6�ț0""�&$2/"�ǗǗȜǽ
Unsurprisingly, the study finds that mobile phones are the most commonly used devices to access the Internet in South Africa. Amongst those 20&+$�1%"��+1"/+"1Ǿ�ǜǗ�-"/ "+1�!,�0,�20&+$�*,�&)"�phones (i.e. smartphones), with almost the rest of 1%"�ǗǛ�-"/ "+1�20&+$�-"/0,+�)� ,*-21"/0ȡ)�-1,-0Ǿ�and a very small number using tablets as their -/&*�/6�!"3& "�ț0""�&$2/"�ǗǘȜǽ
Figure 22: Penetration level by type of mobile phone �,2/ "ǿ������ƞ"/�� "00��2/3"6�!�1�Ǿ�ǗǕǖǜ
Figure 23:��,-2)�1&,+�$/,2-"!��6�Ȉ!"3& "�20"!ȉ�1,�access the Internet �,2/ "ǿ������ƞ"/�� "00��2/3"6�!�1�Ǿ�ǗǕǖǜ
6. � �20&+"00�" %Ǿ�țǗǕǖǝȜǽ��,/"�1%�+�%�)#�,#��,21%��#/& �+0�+,4�,4+�0*�/1-%,+"ǿ�012!6ǽ��3�&)��)"��1ǿ�%11-0ǿȡȡ�20&+"001" %ǽ ,ǽ7�ȡ
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iNDiCATOrS AND iNDiCES 92
with disparities between urban and rural populations being more substantial. However, the mobile phone $"+!"/�$�-�&0�0&$+&Ɯ �+1�&+��,7�*�&.2"Ǿ���+7�+&���+!��&$"/&��ț0""�&$2/"�ǗǖȜǽ��%"�ǗǕǖǜ��#1"/�� "00��2/3"6�0%,40��,21%��#/& �ȉ0�
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Unsurprisingly, the study finds that mobile phones are the most commonly used devices to access the Internet in South Africa. Amongst those 20&+$�1%"��+1"/+"1Ǿ�ǜǗ�-"/ "+1�!,�0,�20&+$�*,�&)"�phones (i.e. smartphones), with almost the rest of 1%"�ǗǛ�-"/ "+1�20&+$�-"/0,+�)� ,*-21"/0ȡ)�-1,-0Ǿ�and a very small number using tablets as their -/&*�/6�!"3& "�ț0""�&$2/"�ǗǘȜǽ
Figure 22: Penetration level by type of mobile phone �,2/ "ǿ������ƞ"/�� "00��2/3"6�!�1�Ǿ�ǗǕǖǜ
Figure 23:��,-2)�1&,+�$/,2-"!��6�Ȉ!"3& "�20"!ȉ�1,�access the Internet �,2/ "ǿ������ƞ"/�� "00��2/3"6�!�1�Ǿ�ǗǕǖǜ
6. � �20&+"00�" %Ǿ�țǗǕǖǝȜǽ��,/"�1%�+�%�)#�,#��,21%��#/& �+0�+,4�,4+�0*�/1-%,+"ǿ�012!6ǽ��3�&)��)"��1ǿ�%11-0ǿȡȡ�20&+"001" %ǽ ,ǽ7�ȡ
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Platform work
RESEARCh DESIGN AND SCOPE 9
Internet penetration remains lower. This could be attributed to supply side issues such as data prices or 1%"�!"�/1%�,#�0(&))0�1,�"+��)"��+1"/+"1�20"ǽ
Given its strong growth and new innovative products, the global mobile industry is now a major source of employment opportunities. Mobile &+!201/6�',�0� �+��"� )�00&Ɯ"!��0�!&/" 1��+!�&+!&/" 1Ǿ�with a diverse labour force supplying each category. �&/" 1�',�0��/"�-/,#"00&,+�)�&+�+�12/"��+!�/".2&/"�0,*"�#,/*�,#�1/�&+&+$��+!�0(&))0ǽ��%"6��/"� /"�1"!��6�mobile operators and manufacturers in professions that range from engineers to managers and sales 02--,/1�01�ƛǽ�+!&/" 1�',�0Ǿ�%,4"3"/Ǿ�!,�+,1�+" "00�/&)6�/".2&/"�
IT expertise. Mobile operators, manufacturers and 1%&/!Ȓ-�/16� ,+1"+1��+!�!"3& "�-/,!2 "/0Ǿ�&+ )2!&+$�entrepreneurs, create these jobs. Indirect jobs are generally small in nature, providing employees with -�/1Ȓ1&*"�"*-),6*"+1ǽ��+!&/" 1�',�0�ț*& /,4,/(Ȝ�have shown potential for growth but, in most cases, are found to compete with traditional employment ,--,/12+&1&"0ǽ�,/�&+01�+ "Ǿ���"/�,/���5��/"��&$� ,*-"1&1,/0�1,�1%"�1/�!&1&,+�)�1�5&�0601"*0ǽ�,/�*�+6�individuals in developing countries, a mobile device is a tool used not only for contacting customers and accessing the Internet, but also as a platform that -/,3&!"0�',�0�02 %��0�!/&3&+$�#,/�/&!"Ȓ�--)& �1&,+0Ǿ�
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very low when analysed using a full sample. This is *�&+)6�!2"�1,�*& /,4,/(��"&+$��+�,+)&+"�-)�1#,/*�that can only be used by individuals who have access to the Internet. Internet penetration in the surveyed countries is very low. Among the surveyed countries, only two countries – Nigeria and South Africa –have "5 ""!"!�1%"�ǘǕ�-"/ "+1��+1"/+"1�-"+"1/�1&,+�)"3")ǽ��%&0�&0���#2/1%"/�"5-)�+�1&,+�,#�4%6�*& /,4,/(�%�0�not yet reached its potential in Africa. Restricting the sample to respondents who stated that they have used the Internet in the past three months, 1%"�0�*-)"�/"!2 "0�1,�Ǘ�ǜǞǘ�/"0-,+!"+10�#/,*��))�1%"� ,2+1/&"0ǽ�, 20&+$�,+�1%"�/"01/& 1"!�0�*-)"Ǿ�the results show that countries with high Internet -"+"1/�1&,+��/"�*,/"�)&(")6�1,�%�3"�%&$%�)"3")0�,#�*& /,4,/(�-�/1& &-�+10�1%�+�1%,0"�4&1%�),4��+1"/+"1�-"+"1/�1&,+ǽ����)"�ǘ�0%,40�1%�1���,21�"&$%1�-"/ "+1�,#��+1"/+"1�20"/0�&+��&$"/&���+!��,7�*�&.2"�-�/1& Ȓ&-�1"�&+�*& /,4,/(�� 1&3&1&"0Ǿ�4%&)"�&+�&$2/"�ǖǾ�,+)6�three percent of Internet users in Nigeria and South �#/& ���/"�*& /,4,/("/0ǽ�& /,4,/(�&0�*,/"� ,**,+�&+���1&+��*"/& �+�
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I per
cap
ita v
alue
Internet use Microwork GNI per capita
86%
73%
53%
73%
63% 65%
19%
30%
17%
26%
13%
36%
26%
15%9% 10%
5%13%
3% 5% 4% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 1%
Informal sector Internet access 7% on average across Africa and as low as 1% in least developed countries
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Price, quality, digital literacy Affordability of devices
Barriers to access
ACTiviTiES ON THE iNTErNET 100
11.4 MOBiLE PHONE PLATFOrMSMobile technologies have not only led to improved Internet access and use of the Internet in Africa and the Global South, but they have also helped a number of African communities, especially those living in rural areas, to access services that were not provided �6�1%"�*�/("1�!2"�1,�1%"�%&$%�&+01�))�1&,+� ,010�&+�low population areas. The evolution of the mobile +"14,/(0Ǿ� ,2-)"!�4&1%�1%"��!3�+ "*"+1�,#�*,�&)"�technologies, has led to the emergence of various initiatives that rely on mobile phones to provide Ɯ+�+ &�)Ǿ�%"�)1% �/"Ǿ��$/& 2)12/�)Ǿ�$,3"/+*"+1��+!�other servicesǖǙ.
Mobile phones today enable consumers to use 1%"*�1,�� "00���+(�� ,2+10Ǿ�1/�+0#"/�*,+"6��+!�*�("��+!�/" "&3"�-�6*"+10Ǿ��+!�-"/#,/*�,1%"/�Ɯ+�+ &�)�,-"/�1&,+0ǽ��%"�*,01� ,**,+�#,/*�,#�*,�&)"���+(&+$�&+��#/& ��&0�*,�&)"�*,+"6�0"/3& "0Ǿ� ,**,+)6�/"#"//"!�1,��0��Ȓ�"0��&+��"+6�ǽ��,�&)"�*,+"6�%�0�&*-/,3"!�1%"�!"$/""�,#�Ɯ+�+ &�)�&+ )2Ȓsion in Africa by allowing people to transfer, save and pay bills using their mobile numbers as their account 4&1%,21�1%"�/".2&/"*"+1�1,�,-"+�����+(�� ,2+1ǖǚ.
Mobile money has become a thriving business in Africa, which has the highest levels of mobile money penetration in the world16ǽ��%"�ǗǕǖǜ������ƞ"/�� "00�
Figure 29: Reasons for not using the Internet�,2/ "ǿ������ƞ"/�� "00��2/3"6�!�1�Ǿ�ǗǕǖǜ
I don’t know what the internet is
No access devices
Too expensive No interest/not useful
Don’t know how to use it9,05
9,05
15,6714,99
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1,26
1,58
1,77
1,86
1,87
5,52
5,71
5,84
6,71
8,00
8,06
8,36
8,39
8,90
9,01
9,48
11,19
11,52
14,05
16,78
16,78
Egypt
Tunisia
Mozambique
Kenya
Uganda
South Africa
Sierra Leone
Botswana
Gabon
DRC
Congo Brazzaville
Eswatini
Togo
Namibia
Sao Tome and Principe
Mauritania
Comoros
Libya
Seychelles
Chad
Guinea-Bissau
1 GB data prices(USD) on the RAMP Index (2020Q2)
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COVID - contact tracking, mobility monitoring, dashboard
v Bluetooth enable smart phones do not exist in sufficient numbers to may of the applications worthwhile
v Invisibility or bias in data for dashboards
v Rights and data protection framework not in place-lack of trust – private and state surveillance
v Simply not the physical resources even to follow up on mobile data for contact tracking purposes
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v Global public goods not available to vast majority of Africans. v Many countries are below the 20% critical mass to enjoy network
effects (penetration and use). (Roller and Waverman 2006)v Policy uncertainty, little effective regulation of markets to make
them competitive - negative impacts on investments and consumer welfare.
v Low levels of human development prevent harnessing digital technology for personal wellbeing and entrepreneurialproduction.
v Cost and quality of broadband not conducive to innovationv Little contribution to national prosperity (value add to GDP and
development).
Problems of being unconnected
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What do we need to do?
v Even if there was effective regulation of markets current prices even on basis of effective regulated prices the majority of African would be able to afford services.
v Current business models, exclusive licencing frameworks, extractive rents by governments through retrogressive/irrational taxation/spectrum fees/unused or misused universal service levies; and by dominant mobile companies who are able to set prices and leverage dominance in their market.
v Dominance of global platforms accountable to no one – unable to exercise data governance/privacy protections for citizens on the one hand, not gain access to private data for common good (public health)
We cannot continue to do the same things and hope for different results/we cannot go back to ‘normal’
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What policy interventions could more equitably allocate resources (from
spectrum to data) to ensure meaningful access to quality public goods in the digital
era?
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“The broad aim is to catalyse a big transformative push by breaking with austerity economics, promoting public investment and crowding-in productive private investment…While the appropriate mixture of recovery, regulation and redistribution will vary across countries (and with policy experimentalism of particular importance in the developing world), all policymakers must translate new digital deal to the global level to leverage the opportunities of today’s inter-dependent world.” (UNCTAD policy brief 63, 2017)
Global (Green) New Deal
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New Digital Deal
v New social compact will require :v competent state to play enabling role (institutional capacity);v crowd-in [productive public investments so that public
investments directed at ‘uneconomic’ access and services challenges;
v conduct low risk experimentation in market structure, alternative access strategies and business model, licensing
v guard dangers of instrumental competition regulation, acknowledgement of competitive & complementary OTTs, IOTs requiring dynamic efficiency models and adaptive regulation to deal with global complexity and not to inhibit innovation
v engage in global regional governance of public goods - global digital taxation (substitute for regressive/irrational sin tax and content and data protection.
• Overhaul of institutional arrangements to deal with digitalisation
Global processes of digitalisation and datafication cut across economy and society requiring a non-sectorally siloed, transversal national & international supply and demand side policy to:
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Experimentation now for transformationv Market reviews to determine market dominance and
remedy through enabling wholesale access to enable market entry of multiple players, fair competition between licensees, competition on price and quality.
v New spectrum assignments accompanied by default lower cost, secondary/dynamic spectrum in rural areas, community, low powered licences, greater commons (free public wi-fi at all public buildings)
v Removal of excise tax on entry level smart phone devices and services
v Leverage private investments (transfer risk) for fibreextension through long term state anchor tenancy in uneconomic areas/ low cost satellite.
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