NEW DEVELOPMENT - Joyce Blackburnjoyceblackburn.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/10... · 4/10/2017...

NEW DEVELOPMENT

82 CALIFORNIA ECONOMIC FORECAST

Residential Development

Residential Project Entitlements

Commercial and Industrial Development

Commercial and Industrial Entitlements

The Forecast

NEW DEVELOPMENT / SANTA CLARITA VALLEY 2017

2017 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 83

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Residential Development

Santa Clarita Valley

During 2016, an estimated 1,421 residential units were authorized through the permitting process in the Santa Clarita Valley. This represents a sizeable increase over 2015, in which 1,134 units were authorized. The peak of home building occurred in 2003 when 4,029 units were permitted, and the trough occurred in 2010 with 272 units. Housing production increased marginally within the city limits of Santa Clarita, with total production up by 5 percent. A total of 401 single-family homes were started in 2016, along with 52 multifamily units.

The San Fernando Valley

In the 2016 calendar year, 4,537 total residential permits were issued in the San Fernando Valley, a decrease of 12 percent from 2015. There was approximately the same number of single family permits issued as last year, but substantially fewer multifamily permits.

Despite a decrease in multifamily permitting across the San Fernando Valley, there were some pockets of growth, such as Burbank and Glendale. In each of these areas, multifamily activity rose by more than 100 units over the previous year.

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City 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 ---- units permitted ---- City of Santa Clarita Single-Family Units 199 111 75 98 81 93 306 290 320 401 Multifamily Units 24 31 30 20 0 0 0 31 111 52 Total Units 223 142 105 118 81 93 306 321 431 453

Unincorporated Santa Clarita Valley Total Units 653 336 176 154 206 237 778 707 703 968

Santa Clarita Valley Total Units 876 478 281 272 287 330 1,084 1,028 1,134 1,421 City of Burbank Single-Family Units 40 47 9 15 8 6 7 22 5 15 Multifamily Units 144 272 6 3 15 20 0 5 20 251 Total Units 184 319 15 18 23 26 7 27 25 266 City of Calabasas Single-Family Units 8 2 2 0 2 1 3 3 3 7 Multifamily Units 0 0 0 75 0 60 0 12 20 18 Total Units 8 2 2 75 2 61 3 15 23 25 City of Glendale Single-Family Units 65 26 12 7 11 10 11 19 9 12 Multifamily Units 576 230 125 92 227 82 214 81 105 220 Total Units 641 256 137 99 238 92 225 100 114 232 City of Hidden Hills Single-Family Units 5 3 1 3 2 4 3 7 7 2 Multifamily Units 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Units 5 3 1 3 2 4 3 7 7 2 City of San Fernando Single-Family Units 12 4 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 6 Multifamily Units 37 0 0 0 0 20 10 6 0 8 Total Units 49 4 5 3 2 21 10 6 0 14 City of Los Angeles (Portion within SFV) Single-Family Units 532 246 157 204 159 280 340 513 588 594 Multifamily Units 2,698 2,008 788 1,073 1,792 1,856 3,017 3,222 4,418 3,670 Total Units 3,230 2,254 945 1,277 1,952 2,136 3,356 3,734 5,006 4,264 San Fernando Valley Single-Family Units 828 328 186 232 184 296 357 542 607 621 Multifamily Units 3,492 2,510 919 1,243 2,034 2,018 3,241 3,321 4,543 3,916 Total Units 4,320 2,838 1,105 1,475 2,219 2,314 3,597 3,862 5,150 4,537Source: CIRB, The Siracusa Company, and the California Economic Forecast

New Residential Units Permitted Santa Clarita and San Fernando Valleys 2007 - 2016



New Development SummarySanta Clarita Valley Total Residential Units in Principal Projects March 2017 Units Approved Units in Projects Units in Planning in Projects not Currently Under but not yet Total Units Under Construction Construction Entitled Newhall Ranch 21,242 0 0 21,242 Valencia/ Santa Clarita 7,566 4,503 1,850 1,213 Saugus 1,697 203 274 1,220 Castaic 4,664 3,749 0 915 Canyon Country 0 0 0 0 Newhall 47 47 0 0 Total 35,216 8,502 2,124 24,590Sources: The City of Santa Clarita and The California Economic Forecast

The Status of New Residential Project Entitlements


Among the principal projects in the Santa Clarita Valley, there are 2,124 units in developments that have started construction and 8,502 units in approved projects that have not yet begun construction. In addition, there are approximately 24,590 units that are in larger conceptual projects, or in projects that have not yet been approved.

The entire residential pipeline includes 35,216 housing units. The majority of these units are in Newhall Ranch.

Newhall Ranch

The largest residential project in California that appears close to ground breaking is the Newhall Ranch Project. FivePoint (formerly Newhall Land) is developing the project. The project

includes 21,242 homes and 11.5 million square feet of office, retail, industrial, recreational and public space. Newhall Ranch will be built within five distinct villages: Landmark, Mission, Homestead South, Homestead North and Potrero, each of which requires a separate EIR. Each village will have an array of detached and attached homes, commercial and business centers, schools, parks, public services and major open space.

In addition to the villages within the Newhall Ranch Specific Plan, three additional villages –Entrada South, Entrada North and Legacy– will be developed by FivePoint. These projects are expected to provide a combined total of 5,000 additional homes.

The California Supreme Court invalidated the EIR in 2015. In November 2016, the planners addressed two of the environmental issues of concern to the California Supreme Court; emissions of greenhouse gases and protection

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of an endangered fish, the three-spined stickleback. The developer is updating the two specific plans for the first and second phases, Landmark and Mission Village. The comment period ended last year, and the county still needs to recertify the EIRs.

When approved, FivePoint estimates that grading for Landmark and Mission Village would begin sometime in 2018.

The Landmark Village community will be developed on 293 acres within Newhall Ranch and contain up to 1,444 residential units, approximately one million square feet of mixed-use commercial space as well as an elementary school and park.

Mission Village will be developed on 1,262 acres and contain up to 4,055 residential units and 1.5 million square feet of mixed-use commercial space, along with an elementary school, fire station and public library.

As grading is completed, land sales to builders would occur by 2020, and home sales would begin in 2021. Consequently, construction crews will start to mobilize in 2018, permits for individual housing units would start to be issued in 2020 and, the first sales and move-ins would occur as soon as 2021.

RiverVillage

RiverVillage (approximately 1,100 homes) is located east of Bouquet Canyon Road and

Source: Santa Clarita Valley Business Journal, February 2017, page 4



north of the Santa Clara River in the City of Santa Clarita. Additional areas of RiverVillage are still yet to be developed and are currently planned for attached product on the north side of Newhall Ranch Road.

As of early 2017, the project is well under construction. The project is composed of 4 land areas: A, B, C, and D. Areas A and B are completely built. Beazer Homes is currently constructing area C, which is at least 50 percent, built. Area D is currently a roughly graded site, and there is no builder on board yet.

Northlake

The Northlake project, which was being developed by TRIPointe, is located just north of Valencia in the unincorporated Castaic region. It is situated on approximately 1,330 acres and is approved for up to 3,623 homes and a new jobs/employment center with 170,000 sq. ft. of commercial office and community-serving retail.

The Castaic Area Town Council and the LA County Board of Supervisors approved Northlake in 1992. The approved Specific Plan for Northlake was included in the 2012 One Valley, One Vision General Plan update for the greater Santa Clarita Valley. Northlake Associates, LLC has acquired the property and intends to build Northlake as approved by the County of Los Angeles.

Aliento (Golden Valley Ranch)

The Golden Valley project is now being developed by TRIPointe Homes on Golden Valley Road, south of the Antelope Valley Freeway. The project is separated into five

single-family detached neighborhoods and a senior restricted neighborhood, totaling 499 units.

Of the 499 units, 95 will be detached single family, condo and senior units, while the remaining 404 will be traditional single-family homes. Model homes are in place and the first phase of residences were sold out on opening weekend. Construction is expected to begin in 2017.

West Creek/West Hills

West Creek and West Hills, a 2,444 home community, is located on the west side of San Francisquito Creek and north of Decoro Drive. In November 2016, the city of Santa Clarita is moving ahead with the annexation of the West Creek and West Hills communities.

West Hills has approximately a dozen homes left to build. West Creek has 4 planning areas that have not started construction yet, 3 of these areas are under review by the city.

Five Knolls

Five Knolls is a 595-unit project located at the intersection of Newhall Ranch Road and Golden Valley Road. Its primary developer is Brookfield Homes, while additional builders include Christopher Homes, TRIPointe Homes, Meritage Homes, and KB Homes. The five developers and the statuses of their communites are broken down as:

• Haywood by KB Homes has 68 out of 115 units complete.

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Principal Residential Projects in the Santa Clarita Valley by City and/or Town March 2017

Units toProject Name be built Description Project Status

Santa Clarita Valley Santa Clarita / Valencia Whittaker Bermite 2,911 SFH (1,244) and MFU (1,667) Approved, clean-up in progress Vista Canyon 1,100 SFH Grading and infrastructure construction Sand Canyon Plaza 580 312 Apts, 122 TH, 146 Condos Entitlement process Aliento (Golden Valley Ranch) 499 SFH and MFU Construction anticipated to begin in 2017 West Creek 463 SFH and MFU Approved, 4 planning areas in review Placerita Meadows 392 SFH Application submitted RiverVillage Area D 277 MFU Approved, construction plans not submitted RiverVillage Area C 239 MFU Under construction Five Knolls 220 SFH Under construction Five Knolls (Senior) 140 Senior Homes Approved Trestles 137 SFH Under construction Mancara 99 SFH Pending, on hold Avanti @ Westcreek 92 SFH Pending, approval expected by end of 2017 Q1 Saugus Skyline Ranch 1,220 SFH (876) and Detached Condos (344) EIR process pending Plum Canyon Ranch 203 SFH Approved in August 2015 Canyon Heights 161 SFH Under construction Canyon Crest 83 SFH Under construction Phantom Trail 30 SFH Under construction Newhall Newhall Crossings 47 MFU Approved, construction expected in late 2017

Unincorporated Northern LA County Castaic Northlake 3,150 SFH Inactive Los Valles 497 SFH Approved Tapia Ranch 405 SFH EIR process pending Project 2 274 Apartments EIR process pending Project 1 236 Apartments EIR process pending Aidlin Hills 102 SFH Approved Newhall Ranch Newhall Ranch 21,242 Master Planned Community Addressing state EIR concerns

Sources: City of Santa Clarita and The California Economic Forecast

SFH: Single Family Homes, MFU: Mulitfamily Units, TH: Townhomes



• Evert by Meritage Homes has 55 out of 59 units complete.

• Grayson by TRIPointe has 54 out of 80 units complete.

• Monterra by Christopher Homes has 20 out of 59 units complete.

• Brighton by Brookfield Homes has 23 out of 82 units complete.

• Highglen by Brookfield Homes has 15 out of 60 units complete.

An age-qualified community composed of 140 units by CalAtlantic was approved in June 2016 with construction expected to begin in 2017.

Vista Canyon

The 185-acre approved project is located west of the intersection of Sand Canyon Road and State Route 14 in the City of Santa Clarita. The land use plan includes four primary components: a town center, a corporate office campus, a transit station, and surrounding residential neighborhoods. The “town center oriented project” will be comprised of retail shops, restaurants, entertainment, parks, trails, and residential neighborhoods. Plans call for 1,100 residential units and 950,000 square feet of commercial space.

The site is in the process of being graded; construction of phase one is expected to begin this year. Phase one consists of apartments and offices and is being built by JPI Construction. A

60,000 SF office building is scheduled to break ground this year.

Whittaker Bermite

In May 1995, the Santa Clarita City Council approved the Porta Bella Specific Plan, and approved a tentative tract map and development agreement, which vested land use entitlements. While the Development Agreement will expire in 2016, the Specific Plan for the property will remain in place indefinitely until it is amended or replaced by another entitlement granted by the City Council in the future. Development of the site will require additional public infrastructure investment (roads, parks, schools, etc.).

The site is currently being remediated in coordination with the Whittaker Corporation and the Department of Toxic Substances Control. It is estimated that all soil remediation for the entire property will be completed by 2018 or 2019. Cleanup of the contaminated groundwater beneath the site will be an ongoing, long-term

Source: KHTS Radio, September 28, 2016, online

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pump and treat process which will potentially require 20-40 years to fully complete. There is no timeline for development post clean up.

Castaic

Los Valles

Los Valles is located on a 430-acre parcel just north of Hasley Canyon Road, east of its intersection with Del Valle Road. Los Valles is planned to be an upscale residential community consisting of 497 single family homes with approximately five miles of pedestrian trails, over 200 acres of open space, and a large park that will be open to the public.

A large portion of the property was graded between 2006 and 2008 pursuant to the existing approvals for a golf course development, and it remains in this partially developed condition today.

The Los Valles project was approved by the Los Angeles County Regional Planning Commission in early February 2017. The project’s developer is New York-based iStar Incorporated.

Tapia Ranch

Tapia Ranch, owned by DACA Castaic LLC and represented by JMP Development LLC, is located just east of Interstate-5 in Tapia Canyon on 1,167 acres. This project is planned to consist of 405 units with an average lot size is 8,665 SF. The community will also contain many miles of trails and outdoor public space. The project is currently in holding pattern for next tentative tract map submittal. Tapia Ranch

is currently pending water supply and access verification, among other considerations.

Commercial and Industrial Development


In 2016, a total of $28.1 million was invested in new commercial and industrial structures, a meaningful increase from the $23.4 million invested in 2015.

There was an increase in investment in several prominent categories, including hotels and retail structures. However, the office and industrial sectors continue to struggle – in 2016 there was no meaningful investment in either of these categories.

A total of $57 million was spent on in the renovation of existing structures in 2016. When investment in new structures is combined with renovations of existing structures, total nonresidential permit valuations reached $84.9 million during calendar 2016 – a 41 percent jump from the previous year.

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Investment in New Commercial & Industrial Structures Santa Clarita Valley millions of

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New Commercial and Industrial Development Summary March 2017

Industrial & Commercial Square Feet in Principal Projects –– square feet –– Pending Approved Total Commercial 1,571,478 3,452,617 5,024,095Industrial 0 6,477,075 6,477,075Total 1,571,478 9,929,692 11,501,170

Summary Status of Commercial & Industrial Development –– square feet ––Under construction 2,214,134

Approved/not under construction 7,715,558

In planning (not yet approved) 1,571,478Source: California Economic Forecast

Commercial and Industrial Entitlements


Currently, there are 9.8 million square feet of approved commercial and industrial projects in the Santa Clarita Valley. Approximately 3.0 million square feet are under construction, and 6.8 million square feet have been approved but are not yet under construction.

There are also 1.6 million square feet of space that is awaiting approval. In total, the commercial and industrial pipeline includes 11.4 million square feet of space.

Henry Mayo Newhall MemorialHospital Expansion

Henry Mayo Newhall Hospital is adding a new patient tower with a helipad, as well as an underground parking structure to its Valencia

Source: The Signal, October 5, 2016

campus location. The $151 million, 6-story patient tower broke ground in October 2016 and will increase bed capacity by up to 142, adding about 160,000 square feet. The project is set to open in 2019.

Construction on a medical office building, which houses a new Education Center and administrative offices, was completed in May 2014. The expansion is all a part of the hospital’s 15-year master plan that was approved by the City of Santa Clarita.

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Southern California Innovation Park

The existing campus, located off of Rye Canyon loop in Valencia, CA, contains 612,075 square feet of current medical offices and buildings. There is an additional 600,000 to 800,000 square feet of potential development space remaining in the lots for build-to-suit tenants. Conceptual plans that summarize the build-out of this space have been developed, but no anticipated schedule for new building construction has been formalized.

In June 2016, SetPoint Medical signed a 10-year lease for 14,292 square feet at the park. Boston Scientific recently renewed their lease at the park for another 15 years. Also, in mid 2016, there was a partial reclassification of the development space in the park. The reclassification reallocated 314,873 square feet of industrial space into office space, making the office component 495,000 square feet out of the total 612,075 square feet.

Gateway V

Gateway V is an industrial, technology and office business center located near the Valencia Commerce Center. This project contains close to 650,000 square feet of potential development. As part of the Valencia Gateway master plan, this project is part of the largest industrial center in Los Angeles County. In September 2016, vertical construction began on Class-A buildings sized at 105,047 square feet, 88,752 square feet, and 60,923 square feet. Construction is expected to finish by the end of the first quarter of 2017.

Gateway VSource: CBRE

Source: SCVBJ November 11, 2016



IAC Commerce Center

Source: http://www.iaccommercecenter.com/property/

IAC Commerce Center

IAC Commerce Center, formerly Sterling Gateway, is a planned 75-acre business with current plans calling for up to 1.3 million square feet of new industrial space. The overall project will have buildings ranging in size from 93,600 square feet to 216,320 square feet, and build-to-suits are available for as large as 550,000 square feet. Once complete this project can create 2,600 potential jobs.

The business park is located at the terminus of Witherspoon Parkway. The project is situated one mile west of Interstate 5 at Hasley Canyon Exit and 1.5 miles north of Highway 126 at Commerce Center Drive Exit.

Groundbreaking for the project occurred in October 2016, with vertical construction beginning in February 2017. Phase 1 will be made up of 3 buildings totaling 398,220 square feet.

Logix Headquarters

Logix Federal Credit Union is planning on moving from its current offices in Burbank to Valencia. This move will bring 379 workers from Burbank to the Santa Clarita Valley once the operation is completed. The project will be located off the 5 Freeway at Commerce Center Drive and Franklin Parkway. The headquarters will be made up of 170,000 square feet of office space, accommodating over 500 employees. The company will start out with a 170,000 square foot building and will have the capability of adding another 85,000 square feet over time for a total of more than 255,000 square feet.

Ground broke on the project in October 2016 with construction beginning in 2017. Officials are optimistic to have the building ready by Q4 2018 or Q1 2019.



Needham Ranch (Gates King Project)

Needham Ranch is a subdivision of a 508-acre project site in the Santa Clarita Valley. It is currently the most significant industrial project in Los Angeles County. The site contains sixty-eight lots for industrial / business park use. The project’s industrial plots would accommodate up to 4.2 million square feet of space. The project is under a 15-year development agreement that was approved on July 15, 2009.

Needham Ranch is fully entitled and all permits have been approved. Phase one will account for one million square feet, with groundbreaking anticipated sometime in March 2017.

Scorpion

Scorpion, a website design and internet marketing firm, is expanding into a new headquarters building located on Entertainment Drive in Valencia. The 100,000 square foot four

story office building will be a duplicate of the adjacent Sunkist Headquarters. Project ground breaking occurred on November 30, 2016. Scorpion and its development partners are hoping to meet a Q3 2017 completion date.

Disney | ABC Studios at the Ranch

Disney | ABC Studios at the Ranch will be constructed on a 56-acre portion of the 890-acre Golden Oak Ranch property. The project would provide development of state-of-the-art studio uses and associated film and television production facilities on the westernmost portion of the Ranch.

Developers plan to construct 6 pairs of sound stages. However, dependent on market conditions, this may be reduced to 4 pairs of sound stages and 100,000 fewer square feet of studio office space than originally planned.

Disney | ABC Studios at the Ranch, 510,000 square feet

Source: http://www.studiosattheranch.com/tour



Principal Commercial & Industrial Projects in the Santa Clarita Valley March 2017

Project Name/Developer Square Feet Type Project Status

Industrial

Needham Ranch 4,200,000 Industrial Park Groundbreaking anticipated March 2017

IAC Commerce Center 1,300,000 Industrial Center first 3 buildings under construction

Northlake 305,000 Industrial Approved, inactive

Oak Ridge Industrial 300,000 Commercial & Industrial Business Park Approved, inactive

Gateway V 254,722 Industrial Center Under construction

Commercial

Newhall Ranch 11,500,000 C, I, R, & P* Addressing EIR concerns

Vista Canyon 950,000 Theater, Hotel, Retail Grading and infrastructure underway

Southern California Innovation Park 612,075 Medical and Office Approved, no timeline for construction

Disney | ABC Studios at the Ranch 510,000 Movie Studio Approved, inactive

Master’s College Expansion 240,000 Campus Extension Approved, project revisions in review

Tourney Road Hotels 201,425 290 Hotel Rooms Approved, construction anticipated in 2017

Logix Headquarters 170,000 Office Under construction

Henry Mayo Newhall Mem. Hospital 160,000 Hospiital Master Plan Under construction

Sand Canyon Plaza 130,600 Retail, Restautrant, Assisted Living Entitlement process

Homewood Suites/Hampton Inn 124,000 185 Hotel Rooms Planning commission meeting April 2017

Oliver Hotels 101,000 134 Hotel Rooms Approved, construction anticipated in 2017

Scorpion 100,000 Office Under construction

Chinquetera 91,000 Office Park Approved, site graded

Oakmont (West Creek) 85,000 95 Bed Assisted Living Facility In architectural review

Northlake 67,000 Commercial Approved, inactive

Rent a Bin 60,000 Recycling Facility Approved administratively

Providence Healthcare 60,000 Medical and Commercial New project submission

Tourney Place 51,000 Medical Office Approved; Should break ground this year

VTC Square 49,000 Commercial Under construction

*C, I, R, & P = Commercial, Industrial, Recreational, and Public SpacesSource: City of Santa Clarita Planning Department, Calfornia Economic Forecast



New Development Forecast Santa Clarita Valley History 2011-2016

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016New Residential Development City of Santa Clarita --number of units permitted-- Single Family Units 81 93 306 290 320 401 Multiple Family Units 0 0 0 31 111 52 Total Units 81 93 306 321 431 453 Santa Clarita Valley Total units 287 330 1,084 1,028 1,134 1,421Commercial and Industrial Investment --millions of constant 2016 dollars--

City of Santa Clarita 112.9 25.7 72.4 45.3 57.8 79.8Source: California Economic Forecast, March 2017

The draft EIR was released in May 2013, and the County Board of Supervisors granted tentative approval for the two different versions of the project in August 2013. An approval by the Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors in January of 2014 granted permission for the construction of either plan. Further action is still dependent on market conditions. The project has been approved for a time extension by Los Angeles County Planning, and there is no foreseeable development schedule.

The Forecast

While the forecast presents a year-by-year distribution of new housing units (permits), it is not practical to forecast housing units by year with any accuracy. There are too many non-market influences that produce great variability in the distribution of housing units at the regional level.

These influences include the uncertain entitlement process that requires an

environmental impact report, public review and comment, mitigation methods of environmental impacts, architecture review, and final tract map reviews by local decision makers – who exercise significant discretion into the process. The sum of housing units over the next 5 years is more important than the year-by-year allocation of units.

Over the past three years, new housing development has materially improved. There have been more detached homes started, and more multifamily permits have been issued than any point in the last decade. Because of the low levels of production during the housing bust, new units will need to be developed at a rather rapid pace to accommodate expected population growth.

Our forecast calls for approximately 14,100 new housing starts in the Santa Clarita Valley between 2017 and 2021. This includes more than 3,400 units within the City of Santa Clarita, with the remaining units in the unincorporated



2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022New Residential Development City of Santa Clarita --number of units permitted-- Single Family Units 412 425 436 448 452 480 Multiple Family Units 113 121 128 135 137 155 Total Units 525 546 564 582 589 635 Santa Clarita Valley Total units 1,628 1,747 1,820 2,467 2,905 3,484Commercial and Industrial Investment --millions of constant 2016 dollars--

City of Santa Clarita 84.8 80.8 87.7 85.8 94.9 106.8Source: California Economic Forecast, March 2017

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The first permits for Newhall Ranch issued in 2020

areas outside the City limits. Investment in non-residential structures will be in the range of $75 million to $110 million annually, totaling more than $540 million for the entire 5-year span.

Currently, the Newhall Ranch project plan is before state and county decisions makers and if approved, the developer, FivePoint estimates that grading for the first village would begin

sometime in 2018. This would result in land sales to builders in 2020, and home sales beginning in 2021. Consequently, permits for vertically constructed homes would occur in 2020 and the first sales and move-ins would occur as soon as 2021.

New Development Forecast Santa Clarita Valley Forecast 2017-2022

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