New climate change adaptation in Eastern...
Transcript of New climate change adaptation in Eastern...
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Building the business case
for climate change adaptation in
Eastern Canada at the municipal
level
presented by ,
Charles-Antoine Gosselin, Economist
Authors: Laurent Da Silva, senior economistCharles-Antoine Gosselin, economistCaroline Simard, economistTravis Logan, Climate scenarios specialist
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Ouranos is a boundary organizationOuranos
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Presentation plan
Project background
Cost of inaction
• Urban heat islands
• Stormwater management
Benefits of adaptation
• Urban forest pest control strategies
• Campaigns against alien invasive species
• Complete streets program
Conclusion
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Project background
• Quebec city - Population : 531 000
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COST OF INACTION BENEFITS OF ADAPTATION
Estimating inaction sectorial costs of climate change impacts
Impacts• Rising temperature• Increased rainfall
Critical issues• Urban heat islands• Stormwater management• Flood
Estimating benefits of adaptation to climate change
Impacts • Rising temperature• Longer growing seasons• +
Adaptation measures to criticalissues• Campaigns against alien invasive
species • Urban forest pest control
strategies• Smart streets program
RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5
EXPECTED CHANGES FOR AVERAGE SUMMER TEMPERATUREDegree Celsius, Quebec city, 2050, 2100
EXPECTED CHANGES FOR TOTAL ANNUAL PRECIPITATIONSMillimetre, Quebec city, 2050, 2100
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Cost of inaction : Urban heat islands
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Cost of inaction : Air conditioning related to urban heat island
• The province of Quebec has one the cheapest electricity rates in the world
• But the Quebecers, in 2013, were alsothe third largest consumers in the world
• By 2050, temperature increase willreduce by 9,1% the energy demand in Quebec for the residential sector(Lafrance, 2015)
• However, the demand for air conditioning will increase by 4,1% (Lafrance, 2015)
EVOLUTION OF THE TOTAL COST OF AIR CONDITIONING RELATED TO HEAT ISLANDMillions of Canadian dollars, Quebec city, 2020-2050
Residential sector
Commercial sector
Administrative sector
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2020 2050
EVOLUTION OF THE ANNUAL COST PER DWELLING-UNIT FOR AIR CONDITIONING Millions of Canadian dollars, Quebec city, 2020-2050
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EVOLUTION OF MORTALITY ASSOCIATED WITH HEAT ISLANDSNumber of annual cases, Quebec City, 2020-2050
Other causes
Respiratory causes
Cardiovascular causes
Cost of inaction : Health impacts of heat islands
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57%
40%
3%
Commercial areaResidential areaAdministrative area
Negatives externalities: Looking at the big disaggregated picture
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Cost of inaction : Stormwater management
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Cost of inaction : Stormwater management
EVOLUTION OF TOTAL ANNUAL COST FOR WASTE-WATER TREATMENT PLANTS Millions of $, Quebec City, 2020-2050
HISTORICAL AND PROJECTION OF ANNUAL DURATION OF STORMWATER OVERFLOWThousands of minutes, Quebec City, 2020-2050
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Benefits of adaptation : Emerald ash borer control program
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Benefits of adaptation : Emerald ash borer control program
20 years 5 years
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CUMULATIVE NET PRESENT VALUE: EMERALD ASH BORER CONTROL PROGRAMMillions of $, Quebec City, 2017-2050
PROJECTED ASH POPULATIONNumber of dead ash trees, Quebec City, 2017-2050
Benefits of adaptation : Emerald ash borer control program
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CUMULATIVE NET PRESENT VALUE: COMMON REED CONTROL PROGRAMMillions of $, Quebec City, 2020-2050
Benefits of adaptation : Common reed control
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Benefits of adaptation : Complete streets program
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Benefits of adaptation : Complete streets program
• 2 streets renewed
• Net present values for both streets : 734 000$ and 73 000$
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Benefits of adaptation : Complete streets program
Encouraging active transportation
• Optimal loss of parking space• Intersection safety increased for bikers and walker• Bikes paths more visible• Net benefit regarding health costs
(bicycle accident costs < lower cost related to healthimprovement)
• One way : speeding up traffic?
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Benefits of adaptation : Complete streets program
Creating green streets
• Modelizing value of ecosystem services
with iTree
• Carbon
• Air Quality
• Avoided Runoff
• Energy Effects
• Structure
• Increasing diversity of species
• Long-term benefit
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Benefits of adaptation : Complete streets program
CUMULATIVE NET PRESENT VALUE: STORMWATER BEST MANAGEMENT PRACTICESThousands of $, Quebec City, 2020-2050
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Benefits of adaptation : Complete streets program
Designing for four-season use
• Limited economic results
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Regular members
Affiliate members
Co-authors: Laurent Da Silva, senior economistCaroline Simard, economistTravis Logan, Climate scenarios specialist
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@ouranos_cc
Charles-Antoine Gosselin
www.ouranos.ca
Charles-Antoine Gosselin
Economist