New 2017 NOAA Model Performance in Alabama · 2017. 10. 16. · Conclusions •The NOAA model did a...
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2017 NOAA Model Performance in Alabama
Michael Leach
Geoff Healan
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Huntsville Forecast vs. Observed
USG
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Forecast AQI Observed AQI Linear (Forecast AQI) Linear (Observed AQI)
AQI (OZONE)
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Birmingham Forecast vs. Observed
USG
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Forecast AQI Observed AQI Linear (Forecast AQI) Linear (Observed AQI)
AQI (OZONE)
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Mobile Forecast vs. Observed
USG
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Forecast AQI Observed AQI Linear (Forecast AQI) Linear (Observed AQI)
AQI (OZONE)
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Model Statistics
Forecast City NOAA Model Percent Correct
(Color Code) NOAA Model Bias
(AQI) NOAA FAR
Huntsville (O3) 89% 0.82 50%
Huntsville (PM) 85% 0%
Birmingham (O3) 80% 1.48 50%
Mobile (O3) 75% 2.21 75%
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Forecast City NOAA Model Percent Correct (Color
Code) NOAA Model Bias (AQI) NOAA FAR
Huntsville (2016) 76% 1.08 0%
Huntsville (2017) 89% 0.82 50%
Birmingham (2016) 66% 1.81 43%
Birmingham (2017) 80% 1.48 50%
Mobile (2016) 74% 1.89 100%
Mobile (2017) 75% 2.21 75%
Model Statistics 2016 vs. 2017
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Case Study May 15, 2017 Birmingham, Alabama
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NOAA Forecast AQI for May 15 was 140 AQI
OBSERVED AQI WAS 129
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(BMX)
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Ridge
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Conclusions
• The NOAA model did a good job of forecasting for North and Central Alabama over the summer of 2017.
• Typically as you progress farther south in Alabama, the forecast tends to be less accurate as you approach the Gulf of Mexico.
• We believe there needs to be more emphasis placed on dew points and land/sea breeze interaction along the coast. – What are NOAA’s expectations for improvements with
this?