Networks, plant health and biodiversity

Marco PautassoFRB, Paris, 28 April 2011

from: Pautasso & Parmentier (2007) Botanica Helvetica

(c)

(d)

(a) (c)

log 1

0sp

pri

chne

ss (n

)

(b)

Living collections of the world’s botanical gardens

(d)

(yr)

from: Golding et al. (2010) Annals of Botany

Living collections of the world’s botanic gardens (2)

Global biodiversity patterns: vascular plants

from Barthlott et al. (2007) Erdkunde

from: Pautasso & Gaston (2005, 2006) Ecology Letters and Global Ecology & Biogeography

Bird abundance surveys with indication of plot area

Survey year

Log 10

plot

are

a (k

m2 )

Log 1

0as

sem

blag

e ab

unda

nce

(indi

vidu

als)(c)

Log10 plot area (km2)

Some recent studies of the spp-people correlation

World wilderness map from: UNEP-WCMC World Atlas of Biodiversity, GIS analysis by R. Lesslie (ANU), method developed for the Australian Heritage Commission

Balmfordet al. (2001) ScienceReal et al.

(2003) J Biogeog

McKinney (2003) Biol Cons

Vazquez & Gaston (2006) Biodiv & Cons

Chown et al. (2003) Ecol Appl

Luck (2007)J Biogeog

Araujo(2003) GEB

Hunter & Jonzon(1993) CB

Ding et al. (2006) J Biogeog

Moreno-Rueda &

Pizarro (2008) Ecol Res

Diniz-Filho et al. (2006) Acta Oecol

from: Lonsdale et al. (2008) European Journal of Forest Research

Random sample of 100 papers per year on ‘species richness’ in WOS (1991-2004)

n = 2877, r2 = 0.18, y = 1.75+ 0.22x, p < 0.0001

1

2

3

4

2 3 4 5 6 7

log10 human population size (n)

log1

0 vas

cula

r pla

nt s

pp ri

chne

ss (n

)

A positive species-people correlation for vascular plants in US counties

Data from the Synthesis of the North American Flora

from: Chiari et al. (2010) Journal of Animal Ecology

Locally, the spp-people correlation tends to be negative

birds in Florence

Does sampling bias explain the positive regional species-people correlation?

from: Pautasso & McKinney (2007) Conservation Biology

US counties with (•) or without (o) Universities and/or Botanical Gardens

from: Pautasso & McKinney (2007) Conservation Biology

• N = 692, r2 = 0.13, y = 2.15 (SE = 0.08) + 0.15 (SE = 0.01) x, p < 0.0001

o N = 2187, r2 = 0.10, y = 2.18 (SE = 0.05) + 0.15 (SE = 0.01) x, p < 0.0001

From: Hufnagel et al. (2005) PNAS (air) & Kaluza et al. (2010) Interface (sea)

Plant (and botanist) movements in a globalized world

passengers

NATURAL

TECHNOLOGICAL SOCIAL

food webs

airport networks

cell metabolism

neural networks

railway networks

ant nests

WWWInternet

electrical power grids

software mapscomputing

gridsE-mail

patterns

innovation flows

telephone calls

co-authorship nets

family networks

committees

sexual partnerships DISEASE

SPREAD

Food web of Little Rock Lake, Wisconsin, US

Internet structure

Network pictures from: Newman (2003) SIAM Review

HIV spread

network

Some recent applications of network theory

urban road networks

from: Moslonka-Lefebvre et al. (2011) Phytopathology

From Brown & Hovmøller (2002) Science

Examples of invasions of plant pathogens

Phytophthora ramorum in the

US: forest outbreaks vs. national risk

Map from www.suddenoakdeath.orgKelly, UC-Berkeley

Hazard map from Koch & Smith (2007)

III SOD Science Symposium

from: McKelvey, Koch & Smith (2008) SOD Science Symposium III

Source: United States Department of Agriculture, 2004Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, Plant Protection and Quarantine

Trace forward/back zipcode

Positive (Phytophthora ramorum) site

Hold released

Importance of trace-forward data in networks of plant movements

from: Cushman & Meentemeyer (2008) Journal of Ecology

Multi-scale correlation of human presence and Phytophthora ramorum disease incidence

Sudden Oak Death in California

from Brasier & Webber (2010) Nature

Sudden Larch Death in SW-England

Source: Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, UK

Phytophthora ramorum in England & Wales

Network of co-occurrences at infected sites (England & Wales, 2003-2005) of plant genera susceptible to Phytophthora ramorum

from: Pautasso et al. (2008) Proceedings of the 3rd SOD Science Symposium

A very short overview of network theory

Minor and Urban (2008) Conservation Biology

Different types of networks

modified from: Keeling & Eames (2005) Interface

random scale-free

local small-world

from: Shirley & Rushton (2005) Epidemiology & Infection

Degree distribution of nodes in a scale-free network

based on a reconstruction of the UK foot-and mouth

disease network.Fitted line:

y= 118.5x -1.6, R2 = 0.87

Clustering vs. path length

modified from: Roy & Pascual (2006) Ecological Complexity

randomlocal small-world

local small-world random

path length

clustering

Biodiversity conservation at the interface between disciplines

Kiss et al. (2010) Journal of Informetrics

step 1

step 2

step 3

step n

…

Simple model of spread and establishment in a network

pt probability of transmission

… 100node 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

from: Moslonka-Lefebvre et al. (2011) Phytopathology

pp probability of persistence

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00

probability of transmission

prob

abili

ty o

f per

sist

ence

localrandomsmall-worldscale-free (two-way)scale-free (uncorrelated)scale-free (one way)

Lower epidemic threshold for scale-free networks with positive correlation between in- and out-degree

from: Moslonka-Lefebvre et al. (2011) Phytopathology

Epidemic does not develop Epidemic develops

Lower epidemic threshold for two-way scale-free networks (unless networks are sparsely connected)

N replicates = 100; error bars are St. Dev.; different letters show sign. different means

at p < 0.05

from: Moslonka-Lefebvre et al. (2009) Journal of Theoretical Biology

Correlation of epidemic final size with out-degree of starting node increases with network connectivity

N replicates = 100; error bars are St. Dev.; different letters show sign. different means at p < 0.05

from: Pautasso et al. (2010) Ecological Complexity

Proportion of producers/

wholesalers/retailers

in networks depending on:

a) category definition, b) network

structure and c) connectance

N replicates = 100; error bars

are St. Dev.

from: Pautasso et al. (2010)

Journal of Applied Ecology

Correlation between proportion of producers (wholesalers) and correlation between links in and out of nodes

N replicates = 100from: Pautasso et al. Journal of Applied Ecology (2010)

MacLeod et al. (2010) Food Security

Plant health and stakeholder engagement

governance

Plant health policy/governance quadrangle

policy makerseconomists

publicsexpertsrisk perception

risk a

nalysis

cons

ulta

tion/

en

gage

men

t

values

prio

ritis

atio

n

impacts

From Mills et al. (in press) Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B

Human inequality and biodiversity threat

from Holland et al. (2009) Conservation Biology

International horticultural networks

Dehnen-Schmutz et al. (2010) Scientia Horticulturae

(European trade in ornamental plants)

Brenn et al. (2008) Mycological Research

Nurseries as hubs

Geographical genetics and the conservation of forest trees

from Vendramin et al. (2008) Evolution

Pinus pinea

Geographical genetics and the conservation of forest trees

from Gao et al. (2007) Molecular Ecology

Taxus wallichiana

Acknowledgements

Claude Steck, Birmensdorf

Mike Jeger, Silwood

Ingrid Parmentier,

Bruxelles

Kevin Gaston,

Sheffield

Diego Fontaneto,Stockholm

Birgit & Florian Schlick-Steiner, Innsbruck

Mike McKinney, Knoxville

Lorenzo Marini, Padova

Alessandro Chiarucci,

Siena

Susanne Fritz, Copenhagen

Ottmar Holdenrieder, Zurich

Peter Weisberg, Reno

Glen Powell, London

Mathieu Moslonka-Lefebvre, Paris

Tom Harwood, Canberra

Caroline Pecher, Bozen

References Barbosa AM, Fontaneto D, Marini L & Pautasso M (2010) Positive regional species–people correlations: a sampling artefact or a key issue for sustainable development? Animal Conservation 13: 446-447Dehnen-Schmutz K, Holdenrieder O, Jeger MJ & Pautasso M (2010) Structural change in the international horticultural industry: some implications for plant health. Scientia Horticulturae 125: 1-15Golding J, Güsewell S, Kreft H, Kuzevanov VY, Lehvävirta S, Parmentier I & Pautasso M (2010) Species-richness patterns of the living collections of the world's botanic gardens: a matter of socio-economics? Annals of Botany 105: 689-696Moslonka-Lefebvre M, Pautasso M & Jeger MJ (2009) Disease spread in small-size directed networks: epidemic threshold, correlation between links to and from nodes, and clustering. Journal of Theoretical Biology 260: 402-411Moslonka-Lefebvre M, Finley A, Dorigatti I, Dehnen-Schmutz K, Harwood T, Jeger MJ, Xu XM, Holdenrieder O & Pautasso M (2011) Networks in plant epidemiology: from genes to landscapes, countries and continents. Phytopathology 101: 392-403Pautasso M (2009) Geographical genetics and the conservation of forest trees. Perspectives in Plant Ecology, Systematics and Evolution 11: 157-189Pautasso M & McKinney ML (2007) The botanist effect revisited: plant species richness, county area and human population size in the US. Conservation Biology 21, 5: 1333-1340 Pautasso M & Parmentier I (2007) Are the living collections of the world’s botanical gardens following species-richness patterns observed in natural ecosystems? Botanica Helvetica 117: 15-28Pautasso M, Moslonka-Lefebvre M & Jeger MJ (2010) The number of links to and from the starting node as a predictor of epidemic size in small-size directed networks. Ecological Complexity 7: 424-432 Pautasso M, Xu XM, Jeger MJ, Harwood T, Moslonka-Lefebvre M & Pellis L (2010) Disease spread in small-size directed trade networks: the role of hierarchical categories. Journal of Applied Ecology 47: 1300-1309