Network Benefit Cost Analysis: An Overview of the Application of NET_BC Software for Caltrans...

Network Benefit Cost Analysis:

An Overview of the Application of NET_BC Software for Caltrans

District 5’s System Analysis Study

TRB Planning Applications Conference

Houston, Texas

May 19, 2009

An Overview of the Application of NET_BC Software for Caltrans District 5’s System Analysis Study.TRB Planning Applications Conference, Houston, Texas, May 19, 2009

Project Team

Caltrans District 5

Bernardin-Lochmueller

System Metrics Group

Kimley-Horn

Judy Lang, Project Manager

Claudia Espino, Coordinator

Jeff Berkman, Modeling

Andy Richardson, GIS

Modeling & NET_BC

Cal-B/C Resource Cost Estimation

With HQ & District 4

Dean Munn, Task Leader

Arben Shasho, Software Dvlpmt

Vince Bernardin, Sr., Senior Advisor

Chris Williges, B/C Advisor Anush Nejad, Task Leader


Congestion Analysis Is Not Sufficient for Decision-making

?Scenario 1 Scenario 4


The Study Area

• Santa Clara and San Benito Counties

• SRs 152 & 156

• Major east-west routes south of SF Bay Area

• SR 25

• Commuter corridor to Silicon Valley

• US 101

• Major north-south route


VTA’s Southern Gateway Study

What combination of improvements will lead to the most efficient flow of

traffic through the region?

The challenge:


Are they economically feasible?

Decision Questions

Project Cost: $1,051 MProject Cost: $1,324 M

If so, which is the better investment?


Benefit-Cost Analysis

@Istockphoto-5467161


Network User Benefit Cost Analysis

Network Benefit Cost is the logical alternative

Captures network effects by using travel model

Incorporates a wide variety of available data

Is efficient for complex and multiple alternatives

Can help answer the phasing question


User Benefit-Cost Analysis Supports Decision-Making

User Benefits

@iStockphoto 8465949 @iStockphoto 393844

Mobility Safety Operating

Costs

Development

O&MProject

@iStockphoto 4318571

Decision Measures:

• Benefit/Cost Ratio

• Net Present Value


NET_BC Implementation for System Analysis StudyPreparation and Customization

Travel Demand Model Runs (AMBAG Model)

• Modified traffic assignments (more iterations)

• Added signal locations and vertical grade

• Updated user interface for future analyses

NET_BC Preprocessor

• Customized to attach to AMBAG model

• Added HOV details and model’s time periods


NET_BC Implementation for System Analysis StudyNET_BC

Network User Benefit-Cost Software

• Fully integrated with TransCAD

• Calibrated to Caltrans data

• Modified methodology for California crash rates

• Modified assumptions to match Cal-B/C


Parses loaded networks and trip tables for…

4 model runs:

• No-Build Base Year• Build Base Year• No-Build Forecast Year• Build Forecast Year

Multiple modes – auto & trucks

NET_BC: Features & Operation

Post-processes Model Outputs


Accepts User-Specified Assumptions

Discount rate

Analysis period

Construction assumptions

Costs

Mix of truck types

Consumer & producer price indices



Computes and discounts benefits and costs

Mobility Safety Vehicle Operating

Project Development

Operation &

Maintenance


Benefits

Costs

@iStockphoto 8465949 @iStockphoto 393844


VHT savings between build and no-build alternatives

Mobility Benefits

Consumer Surplus Theory applied to induced travel

Captured by time-of-day

Captured by mode (truck vs. auto)

Captured by purpose (work vs. non-work)

NET_BC: Mobility

@iStockphoto 8465949


Safety Benefits

Methods sensitive to each link’s characteristics

•Able to use California average accident rates

NET_BC: Safety

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Safety benefits computed by fatal, injury, and PDO crash types


Vehicle Operating Benefits

Contain specific cost factors for:

Oil

Fuel

Tire Wear

Maintenance

Depreciation

NET_BC: Vehicle Operating Costs



Cost factors vary by vehicle type:

•4-tire trucks

•6-tire trucks

•3+ axle semi-trucks

•5+ axle semi-trucks

•Small autos

•Medium/large autos




Are sensitive to:

•Stops and starts due to signalization

•Acceleration/deceleration/idle engine modes

•Vertical grades

•Flat, rolling, mountainous

•Level of congestion – flow density



Produces Detailed Output Report


Standard Measures:

•Benefit/Cost Ratio

•Net Present Value

System and Functional Class Summaries

•VMT, VHT, congestion indicators, performance indices

Mobility, Safety, & Vehicle Operating Cost Benefits Details


Improvement Scenarios for Network B/C Analysis

System Analysis Study

On existing alignments On new alignments


@iStockphoto: 7465953

NET_BC Implementation Process

Code networks and run TDM

Run pre-processor

Run NET_BC


System Analysis Study Results

Scenario Results NET PRESENT

VALUE BENEFIT/COST

RATIO

Scenario 1

$781.6 million 1.58

Scenario 2

$770.3 million 1.60

Scenario 4

$583.4 million 1.54


NET_BC Outputs for System Analysis Study

0

50

100

1 2 4 5 6

Scenario

Mil

lio

n $

Safety

Operating

Mobility

Mobility benefits dominate in 2030



0

30

60

90

1 2 4 5 6

Scenario

Mill

ion

$ Safety

Operating

Mobility

For trucks, operating benefits dominate in 2030



Rolling Terrain + Congestion

Lower Truck Operating Benefits for Scenario 4


Conclusions After Using a Network Benefit Cost Approach

Standardized tools such as NET_BC produce results that aid in project evaluation and prioritization

Results helped focus people on solutions


Conclusions After Using a Network Benefit Cost Approach

Analysis helped D5 staff better understand traffic flows in the region

Successful performance of NET_BC in D5 confirmed the merits of modifying NET_BC for Caltrans-wide use

Network benefit cost analysis is do-able


NET_BC for Systems Analysis – Questions?

For trucks, operating benefits dominate in 2030

Scenario Results NET PRESENT

VALUE BENEFIT/COST

RATIO

Scenario 1

$781.6 million 1.58

Scenario 2

$770.3 million 1.60

Scenario 4

$583.4 million 1.54

0

30

60

90

1 2 4 5 6

ScenarioM

illio

n $ Safety

Operating

Mobility

Contacts: Dean Munn [email protected], Judy Lang [email protected]


iStockphotos.com (copyrighted)

393844-PaulCowan

4318571-mypixart

8465949-fotoIE

Caltrans Other

J. Simek

Credits

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5467161-abu

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