NetPicks 2011 Market Outloook Part 3

8/2/2019 NetPicks 2011 Market Outloook Part 3

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NetPicks Market Outlook 2011

Transcript Part 3 of 7

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Mark Soberman: Okay. So yeah, so there was a question on account size, I think isn’t a

good idea so that’s fine.

Brian Short: Yeah, roughly account size at least 25,000, 50,000 would be better --

Mark Soberman: All right. And then --

Brian Short: -- in that range.

Mark Soberman: Sorry, Brian. Yeah, symbol for silver?

Brian Short: As I know for silver, silver is SI.

Mark Soberman: Okay, and then trading platform for silver, TradeStation so I mean

yeah. I mean you could do TradeStation. I can tell you right now, I chart mine on trade

station and I traded at interactive brokers --

Brian Short: Yeah.

Mark Soberman: -- but you certainly can use NinjaTrader just fine so --

Brian Short: I’m charting mine in TradeStation and I trade with Options Express.

Mark Soberman: Okay. All right. Well, there some more questions on silver, we’ll tryto get back to these as we go on. I’ll kind of move along to Will’s market outlook so,

Will, it’s all you.

Will Feibel: Okay. Thank you, Mark. My market outlook, first let’s just review 2010and what worked is a whole bunch of stuff on the futures and on the Forex and what

didn’t worked is basically the same thing. So we saw this year what’s pretty typical. Wehave periods of volatility followed by periods of consolidation and the Russell, crude,

soybeans, they all did very well part of the year and then they didn’t move well other

parts of the and this is just typical trading.

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Overall, I don’t think this year has been atypical. Performance has been very good on the

systems that I crate and let’s look at 2011 what will be hot besides Angelina Jolie.

Frankly, I don’t know. I’m not an economist. I did take Econ 101 back in college so Ifeel that qualifies me to point out a couple of macro considerations. I do think we’re in

an economic recovery. I’m not positive but I’m pretty sure things are looking up

gradually. We also have two years until the next election and I think that’s a big factor.Uncertainty, whenever we have uncertainty, we have vol -- low volatility or

consolidations in markets. We don’t know which way price is going to move. I think

with the fact that we do have the beginnings of an economic recovery and that we’re notgoing to be in a crazy period around elections for the next couple of years, I think a lot of

that uncertainty has been resolved and we will see a return of volatility, greater volatility

to the markets. That’s my macro predictions.

Now, I’ll tell you what I’m planning for 2011. I don’t know what’s going to be hot, as I

said. But what I plan to do is to diversify both instruments and for me a big change is

going to be the time frames. I’ve been a day trader these past few years. I haven’t done

any swing trading. I sat through the options course, Mike Rykse and Bob Hilt, and that’sinspired me to get swing trading a shot.

The other thing I’m going to do is I’m going to follow my minimalist trading approachwhich I talked about at the owner’s web -- webinar back in December. There are several

points associated with that but essentially it focuses on trading the volatile periods in the

market and to stop trading as soon as you can when you’re clearly in top. Specifically,this is my high level trade plan. I’m going to trade three instruments starting out which I

already do, as a matter of fact. One is crude and I trade crude on Renko bars. I use the

HVMM method slightly modified. It’s a five tick Renko bar and I only traded for half anhour. This is following that minimalist approach. I start at 8:50 and come hell or high

water I stop at 9:20.

The next thing is I move in to the Russell. And on the Russell, I’m also following the

minimalist approach that I described in the December owner’s webinar. I used a Rangebar of five. I used the HVMM method and I only trade that for half an hour. The third

instrument that I day trade is soybeans and I have an 89 tick chart using the HVMM

method. This is also just a half hour a day, 10:30 to 11:00, that’s my entire focus. Andalthough, soybeans started out the year pretty slow basically threading water, once we got

into the September time frame and we started trading the November contract, soybeans

took off again and it’s doing as well as it had in the previous two or three years. So that’son the day trading sides.

Swing trading, as I said, I intend to. I haven’t done my first trade yet but I want to trade

options using the stock charts as a guide. And if you folks haven’t taken the course, thenext time it’s offered, I strongly recommend the swing -- the options training presented

by NetPicks. It’s really an eye-opener. The system for swing trading is the SST and thetime frames, the chart time frames, either 130 or 195-minute charts depending on the

instrument and what you’re back testing tells you.



Then a couple of things I want to look out for in the coming year, interest rate futures are

used to do great a couple of years ago until the Fed brought rates down and we haven’t

seen any adjustment to the Fed’s funds rate from a quarter percent in a while. I expect

that will change. I expect as the economy continues to improve, the Fed may find itself

finally moving rates. If that happens, I believe the interest rate futures will take off again.

They were wonderful trading instruments and I’m hoping they’ll come back.

Gold and silver, Brian talked about that a whole bunch and the agriculturals. I’m sorry,

Keith, Coach Keith maybe will talk a little bit about wheat. I’ve been trading soybeansfor years now. I love these instruments. They have nice moves. You can focus your

trading using a minimalist approach and you can do very well with very few trades. So

that’s my perspective. Thank you very much.

Mark Soberman: Great. Thanks, Will. I think one thing that you point out there with the

interest rate futures, I remember a few years back, that was kind of one of the real hot

areas that all of us were trading and it’s why we always kind of sort of bang that same

drum that you have to follow a methodology where you can change markets. Thesethings change. I mean it’s, you know, unfortunately, whatever we’re probably focusing

on right now maybe different to some degree I would say by the end of 2011.

So what do you do between 10:00 and 10:30? I noticed on your trade plan you got that

wide open 30 minutes?

Will Feibel: Breakfast.

Mark Soberman: Breakfast, good choice, good choice. And I also think -- I mean youcould probably have some kind of like economic smack down since you took Econ 101

and so did I.

Will Feibel: There you go.

Mark Soberman: So, you know, one of these days I mean we’re going to do it. All right,

I got a few questions for you.

Will Feibel: So who’s next, Mark?

Mark Soberman: We’ve got Keith and we have some questions for you.

Will Feibel: Okay.

Mark Soberman: How do you trade Renko bars, especially with all the unseen wicks?

Will Feibel: You know, there is a video on the HVMM site. I should put it on to the SSTsite. Essentially, what you have to do is you have to adjust all your entries, your stops

and your targets to coincide with the Renko boundaries. And wherever your Renko bar

is, at the moment, realize that it could move within one pip of the next brick up or one pip



of the next brick down, so that’s why you have to settle those stops, targ ets and entries at

Renko boundaries. And if you do that, you can trade it. It gets a little bit more involved

in that and I’ll try to get that video up but it’s -- once you understand how Renko works,

it’s very easy to trade. It’s one of the easiest setups to identify. I don’t even use the

calculator when I’m trading it. I just use the profit line and the other indicators.

Mark Soberman: Great. And then a question from -- several people are asking as we go

and everybody is getting times. I assume this is the case, right? Well, you’re getting

Eastern New York time, correct?

Will Feibel: Yes, all New York time.

Mark Soberman: Yeah. We try to stay standardized on that when we talk times because

we know that people are all over the place so if any of the coaches give a time and it’s notEST, we’ll make sure that they make a note of that.

Will Feibel: Right. So right on the soybeans, the 10:30 was New York which is 9:30Central Time which is the open for the soybeans.

Mark Soberman: Great. Andrew was asking, what was the options course you

recommend? It’s just the options live trading that Mike Rykse and Bob Malinowski put

on. They’re just finishing up right now so it will be offered out again at some point here

and we’ll get that to -- get you guys notified. So Keith -- Brian, I don’t see Keith in thelist. Is he -- did he have an issue of any sort?

Brian Short: No, he’s here.

Mark Soberman: He is.

Will Feibel: He’s on the list.

Brian Short: He’s right there on the middle. You’ve got him muted.

Mark Soberman: Oh, that’s why. Oh, okay. Sorry I can’t change presenter so maybehe’s just mute, I don’t know.

Will Feibel: I just past control to him.

Mark Soberman: Did you? Okay. Thanks.

Keith McKenzie: Do I have control?

Mark Soberman: Yes, you have the power.

Keith McKenzie: I have the power. Mark, are you going to put my presentation up or

am I?



Mark Soberman: Oh, I had --

Will Feibel: Oh, we’re looking at your inbox right now.

Mark Soberman: Yeah, we see your inbox right now so --

Keith McKenzie: Oh, you see my inbox.

Mark Soberman: I can put up your slides if you prefer, that’s fine.

Keith McKenzie: Yeah, why don’t you do that?

Mark Soberman: Okay. All right. So let’s see. Let me get that going for you real quick.

Keith McKenzie: Because I wasn’t prepared for that. I thought you’re going to do it for

me.

Mark Soberman: Well, I think we’ll hand it off to you. I was going to ask you first butthank you for getting it off and --

Keith McKenzie: Hello, everybody.

Mark Soberman: There’s a fumble. Okay. Here you go.

Keith McKenzie: It was a fumble. We had a fumble.

Mark Soberman: Yes.

Keith McKenzie: Which that’s with me that sometimes happens.

Mark Soberman: Never mind. Just tell me when you want me to go advance. I’m here

to click.

Keith McKenzie: Okay. You’ll figure it out.

Mark Soberman: Okay.

Keith McKenzie: All right. First of all, I’m going to start of f with my 2010 review. I

don’t have any real large predictions because I’m a technical trader and that’s what I do.I just hope that the market moves. If not, then I adjust. But looking back and reflecting

on my 2010, way back in January, I was trading HVMM and I was trading crude oil and

natural gas and doing rather well just segmented in from the simple two and the advancetactics. And that first of the year, I started trading the HVMM.



Then August came round. I was introduced to the SST and immediately started trading

crude oil and one thing I started trailing one position and had great results. That wasreally helped my trading for the last half of the year. In September, I entered the wheat

trade plan and as you guys know, I’ve been following it. It’s been working pretty good.

In December, I added a silver trade plan and I kind of came up with my own. I was

trading an eight range momentum bar but first of the year I converted over to a 233. Theeight range momentum bar was just too slow and I was missing a lot of the moves that

the 233 tick was giving me.

Next page. So currently, starting last week, I’m trading the crude oil on the 377 tick chartand I’m using the TJ’s Trade Plan. And I start that at 8:50, just like everybody else, and I

am power quitting at two and positive. Then I’m also trading silver starting at 8:00 on

the 233 also using the default calculator and I am POQ on that. I haven’t -- even though

a lot of times I’m out there at almost 11:00, a lot of times I’m done by 9:00 so I have to

look at that Brian’s time frame. I’ve also introduced the trading the one-day swing trade

using the pound-U.S. dollar and the euro-U.S. dollar and the U.S. dollar-Yen. I love

doing that. I like waking up in the morning having 160 or 120 pips of win over the nightso I’ve really been like a man. I’ve also swing trading some stocks using options on the

195-minute chart. And like Brian, I am simplifying. I’m kind of would limit right now

my trading to two markets. I’m going to keep the wheat plan in the bull pen. I’m stillgoing to track it. I’ll still teach it. But right now, I got that on site.

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