NETL’s Systems Engineering & Analysis Library/Events/2017/ucfe/5-16-1120-NETL-s... · 3 Vision...
Transcript of NETL’s Systems Engineering & Analysis Library/Events/2017/ucfe/5-16-1120-NETL-s... · 3 Vision...
Solutions for Today | Options for Tomorrow
NETL’s Systems Engineering & Analysis
May 16, 2017
Overview
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NETL Core Competencies
Materials Engineering & Manufacturing
• Structural & Functional
• Design, Synthesis, &
Performance
Geological & Environmental
Systems
• Air, Water & Geology
• Understanding &
Mitigation
Energy Conversion Engineering
• Component & Device
• Design & Validation
Systems Engineering & Analysis
• Process & System
• Optimization, Validation,
& Economics
Effective Resource Development • Efficient Energy Conversion • Environmental Sustainability
ComputationalScience &
Engineering
• High Performance
Computing
• Data Analytics
Program Execution & Integration
• Technical Project
Management
• Market & Regulatory
Analysis
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Vision
Systems Engineering & AnalysisVision
Systems Engineering & Analysis vision is
• to become the world’s premier resource for the
development and analysis of innovative advanced
energy systems and
• to provide unprecedented breadth of integrated
modeling and optimization capability to support
decision making and analysis across multiple scales.
This competency will support technology innovation and
maturation at the process level as well as enable better
identification, evaluation and prioritization of R&D
concepts at earlier stages, including the consideration of
broader energy system and market needs and impacts.
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Energy Systems Analysis
Systems Engineering & Analysis (SEA)Teams and Scope
Process Systems Engineering Research
Energy Process Analysis
Energy Markets AnalysisEnergy Economy Modeling and Impact Assessment• Enhanced fossil energy representation• Multi-model scenario/policy analysis• Grid, infrastructure, energy-water
Resource Availability and Cost Modeling• CO2 storage (saline and EOR)• Fossil fuel extraction• Rare earth elements• General subsurface technology
evaluation and support
Environmental Life Cycle Analysis
Energy Process Design, Analysis, and Cost Estimation• Plant-level modeling, performance assessment• Cost estimation for
plant-level systems• General plant-level
technology evaluation and support
• Economic impact assessment• General regulatory, market
and financial expertise
• Process synthesis, design, optimization, intensification
• Steady state and dynamic process model development
• Uncertainty quantification• Advanced process control
Design, optimization, and modeling framework to be expanded to all SEA “systems”
Travis Shultz
Dr. Peter Balash
Dr. Charles Zelek
Associate Director, Kristin Gerdes Senior Research Fellow, Dr. David Miller
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• 35 Federal Personnel
• Site Support Contractors• ~50 FTEs
• Mission Execution & Strategic Analysis (MESA)
• Research & Engineering Services (RES)
• Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education (ORISE)• ~15 graduate students, post doctoral students, faculty
• Partnerships
SEA Personnel ResourcesEngineers, Scientists & Economists
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• Develop new computational tools and models to enable industry to more rapidly develop and deploy new advanced energy technologies• Base development on industry needs/constraints• Emphasis on supporting post-combustion capture technologies
• Demonstrate the capabilities of the CCSI Toolset on non-proprietary case studies• Examples of how new capabilities improve ability to develop capture
technology
• Deploy the CCSI Toolset to industry
• Collaborate with industry to use the tools to support technology development and scale up
Goals & Objectives (2011-2016)
Industry Collaborators
➢ Early stage R&D
‒ Screening concepts
‒ Identify conditions to focus development
‒ Prioritize data collection & test conditions
➢ Pilot scale
‒ Ensure the right data is collected
‒ Support scale-up design
➢ Demo scale
‒ Design the right process
‒ Support deployment with reduced risk
New Capabilities for Modeling & SimulationMaximize the learning at each stage of technology development
2016 R&D 100 Award
• Challenge: Develop and utilize multi-scale, simulation-based computational tools and models to support the design, analysis, optimization, scale-up, and troubleshooting of innovative, advanced fossil energy systems with carbon capture.
• Next generation modeling and optimization platform
– Current tools insufficient to address demands of integrated advanced fossil energy systems. Needs a more flexible and open modeling environment
– Supports advanced solvers and computer architecture
– Process Synthesis, Integration, and Intensification
– Process Control and Dynamics
– Link to larger systems
• Apply to development of new and novel energy systems
Development of Innovative Advanced Energy Systems
Through Advanced Process Systems Engineering
• Advanced computational tools and simulation techniques enable innovation and the more rapid development of advanced highly efficient, low-emission power plants
• Assess new concepts using computational simulations to enable prioritization of research areas
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• Systems/Subsystems Modeled• Combustion Systems
(coal and natural gas)• Gasification Systems (dry and
slurry feed, coal and biomass)• Oxycombustion Systems
(atmospheric and elevated pressure)
• Chemical Looping • Solid Oxide Fuel Cells• Fuels and Chemicals
Production from Fossil Fuels Supercritical CO2 Power Cycles (direct and indirect)
• Process Water Treatment/ Zero Liquid Discharge Systems
• Direct Power Extraction/ Magnetohydrodyanmics
Process Modeling Experience
• CO2 Capture Systems (solvent, sorbent, membrane, cryogenic)
• CO2 Purification and Compression
• Air Separation Units (cryogenic, ion transport membrane)
• Hydrogen Recovery (membranes, sorbents)
• Combustion Turbines• Steam Turbines (subcritical
through adv. ultrasupercritical steam conditions)
• CO2 Utilization Technologies (EOR, Cements, Plastics, Chemicals
1. Process Simulation and Conceptual Design• Process synthesis and system integration
• Simulation of major chemical processes
• Modeling of major equipment
3. Discounted Cash Flow Analysis• Project finance structure
• Capital expenditure and
operational schedule
• Taxes and Depreciation
• Inflation and escalation rates
Tools• Aspen Plus ®
• Thermoflow
• Chemcad
• NETL Models
Performance Calculations• Detailed mass and
energy balances
• Efficiency and
emissions
• Water consumption
• Equipment sizing,
specs
Cost Data• Vendor Quotes
• EPC Database
• Published Data
• Commercial
Software
• DOE RD&D
Projects
• Internal
Estimates
• R&D Targets
• NETL Models
Tools
• NETL’s Power
Systems Financial
Model (PSFM)
• Other financial
tools
2. Cost Estimation • CAPEX
(equipment,
labor, EPC fees,
contingencies)
• O&M Costs
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• TEA - system-level performance and cost analysis at commercial scale• Comprised of multiple cases – State-of-the-art reference
and advanced technology case(s)
• NETL Baseline series frequently used as SOA reference.
• Comparison of relevant figures of merit (e.g., efficiency, cost of electricity) can provide:• Identification of critical performance and cost parameters
for novel process technology
• Quantification of performance and cost goals for the novel process technology
• NETL QGESS provides detailed guidance and best practices for executing a TEA
Quality Guidelines for Energy System StudiesPerforming a Techno-Economic Analysis (TEA) for Power Generation Plants
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• Example CO2 Transportation and Storage (T&S) Costs1
• CO2 transported 100 km, stored in the Illinois or Powder River
Basins and monitored for 50 years post-injection
CO2 Transport and Storage Cost Modeling
1National Energy Technology Laboratory. Quality Guidelines for Energy System Studies: Carbon Dioxide Transport and Storage Costs in NETL Studies. Pittsburgh, PA : Department of Energy, 2014. DOE/NETL-2014/1653
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Produce unbiased LCAs of energy systems
• Inform and defend technology programs, and identify opportunities for R&D
• Baseline different energy technologies
• Understand technology strengths andweaknesses from a life cycle perspective
Life Cycle Analysis (LCA) Research at NETLA comprehensive form of analysis that evaluates the environmental, economic, and social attributes of energy systems ranging from the extraction of raw materials from the ground to the use of the energy carrier to perform work.
System of Interest
Product transportation, use & disposal
Resource extraction, processing & transportation
Additional environmental impacts to air, soil & water
Improve LCA methods
• Expand environmental inventory
• Characterize both variability and multiple types of uncertainty
• Build flexible models
• Enhance interpretation & comparability of inventory results without losing depth and transparency
Inform energy policy decision-makers
Conduct cooperative research and provide national leadership
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• Proximity to storage analysis
• Projected capture deployment analysis (MarkAl)
• Plant age analysis
• Unit operation and profitability analysis (PROMOD)
• Remaining operational life analysis (NEMS)
• Market/Local incentive analysis
• Optimal plants identified
Optimal Project Siting Through Infrastructure Analysis22 plants in 10 states as candidates for carbon capture retrofit
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Assessing Program Portfolio Impacts: Coal Program Example
Baseline Data & Model
Development
Set R&D Goals and Evaluate Progress
Project deployment of Technologies
Estimate Potential Benefits of RD&D
NETL Cost and Performance Baseline for Fossil Energy Plants
NETL CO2 Capture, Transport, Utilization, and Storage -National Energy Modeling System (CTUS-NEMS)
• Detailed, transparent account of plant information
• Key resource for government, academia and industry
• Adopted by EIA; used in AEO’s 2014/15/16/17
NETL CO2 Saline Storage Cost Model (onshore and offshore)
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CO2 Utilization Factor
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CO2 Retention Factor
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Annual Oil Production
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Borehole bottom locations mapped by play name
NETL CO2 Prophet Model for Enhanced Oil Recovery
NetPay
GrossPay
Oil Bearing Formation
Gas Cap
Aquifer/ ROZ
Oil Zone
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Assessing Program Portfolio Impacts:Coal Program Example
Evaluate Technology
Potential
Set Program and Technology Goals
Assess Market Competitiveness
Baseline Data & Model Development
Set R&D Goals and Evaluate Progress
Project Deployment of Technologies
Estimate Potential Benefits of RD&D
NETL Current and Future Technology Pathway Studies
IGCC, IGFC, Oxy-combustion, Post-Combustion Capture
Goals shown are for greenfield plants. Costs are nth-of-a-kind and include compression to 2215 psia but exclude CO
2 transport and storage costs.
SOTA 2025 Demo 2030 Demo
Cost of Electricity Reduction Targets
New Plants
Consider regulatory, environmental constraints including full life cycle emissions and costs
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No RD&D RD&D No RD&D RD&D
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awat
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NG Retrofits
New Gas CCS
Coal Retrofits
New Coal CCS
Assessing Program Portfolio Impacts:Coal Program Example
Baseline Data & Model
Development
Set and Evaluate
Progress to R&D Goals
Project Deployment of Technologies
Estimate Potential Benefits of CCRP RD&D
Estimate Potential Benefits of RD&D
New CCS Capacity and Associated Captured CO2
2025 2040
New NG CCS
New NG CCS
Coal Retrofits
New Coal CCS
NG Retrofits
New NG CCS
Coal Retrofits
U.S. Benefits of the Program, Cumulative through 2040
Benefit Area Metric
Economic Growth Total Electricity Expenditure Savings
Employment
Income
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Environmental
Sustainability
CO2 Captured at Coal and Gas CCS Facilities
Energy Security Additional Domestic Oil Production via EOR
$
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[email protected]://www.netl.doe.gov/research/energy-analysis