Net Zero Energy ReadyTrends for construction & retrofits

Tom-Pierre Frappé-Sénéclauze@tompierrefs

FEN-BC Conference, 21 February 2017

Leading Canada’s transition to a clean energy futureThe Pembina Institute advocates for strong, effective policies to support Canada’s clean energy transition.

@tompierrefs

Research pembina.org/buildings

ConveningThought Leader Forum: 80+ organizations, 100+ participants: 2015: Can we get new buildings ‘net-zero ready’ by 2030?2016: How do we accelerate deep retrofits?

@tompierrefs

Advocacy

A subset of the 100+ signatories: local governments, organizations, businesses, etc.

Call to Action on Climate and Energy in the Building Sector (2016)

Net zero energy buildings:Market and policy trends

New buildings� Market evolution� Policy commitments and implementation

Existing buildings

� Market evolution

� Targets for the sector

� Policy recommendations

Net-Zero Energy buildings: rapid growth in North America

Figure: NBI

NZE: A home or building that produces as much energy as it consumes on an annual basis.

NZE-ready* • A home designed to be NZE, but where the

renewables have NOT yet been installed.• A building with ultra-low energy use.

* Working definition; no consensus yet

Certifications

Source: J.Draper, Postmedia network

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Cum

ulat

ive

Squ

are

Foot

age

(Mill

ions

)

Cumulative Square Footage

Dual Certified - Projected PHIUS - Projected PHI - Projected PHIUS - New PHI - New PHIUS - Cumulative PHI - Cumulative

Passive House in North America

Data: PHI, PHIUS and Passive House Canada

Vancouver:14 projects600 units25% of all sqft

Net Zero Ready CommitmentsB.C.

� Code to require Net Zero Ready by 2032

Feds

� Net Zero Ready code released in 2020 for broad adoption by 2030

How do we get there?

✔ Energy Step Code

❓ Incentive program for high performance buildings

❓ Training and education

❓ Energy use benchmarking and disclosure (by 2019)

What about existing buildings?

Certified Energy Advisor audits

Data: Gov. of B.C.

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

Post

-aud

its p

er m

onth

% o

f elig

ible

sto

ck re

trof

itted

ecoENERGY v.i

ecoENERGY v.i / LSBC v.i

LSBC v.ii

LSBC v.iii

LSBC v.iii / ecoENERGY v.ii

LSBC v.iv

HERO Bonus v.i & ERS

Average energyreduction: ~ 25%

Reference case

CLP + Fed. Carbon price

-33%BC 2020

target

-30% from 2005, based on federal

target

-80%BC 2050

target0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Ann

ual e

mis

sion

s in

Mt C

O2e

CIMS modeling by Navius

(+ forestry credits)

B.C. Emissions

Proposed building sector targets

40-50% by 2030

80-100% by 2050

Buildings emissions

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Build

ings

em

issi

ons

(Mt)

NZEr building code

Shallow retrofits

Low carbon pathway

Base case

Retrofit 3% of buildings each year,with average savings of 25%.

+Electrify one out of two.

Homes MURBs ICICurrent stock 1 million 25,000

(575,000 units)60,000(100 million m2)

3% 2,500 per month 800 per year(17,000 units)

1,800 per year(3 million m2)

3% per year…

How does that compare?

Data: Gov. of B.C.

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

Post

-aud

its p

er m

onth

% o

f elig

ible

sto

ck re

trof

itted

ecoENERGY v.i

ecoENERGY v.i / LSBC v.i

LSBC v.ii

LSBC v.iii

LSBC v.iii / ecoENERGY v.ii

LSBC v.iv

HERO Bonus v.i & ERS

Average energyreduction: ~ 25%

Five guiding principles

1. Drive electrification and fuel switch

2. Ensure all replacements go to high efficiency

3. Liberate energy information

4. Market co-benefits and connect to values

5. Unlock capital from institutional investors

Call to Action on Climate and Energy in the Building Sector

A subset of the 100+ signatories: local governments, organizations, businesses, etc.

Question to you…

1. Drive electrification and fuel switch

2. Ensure all replacements go to high efficiency

3. Liberate energy information

4. Market co-benefits and connect to values

5. Unlock capital from institutional investors

How can the fenestration industry help ensure that a client coming for window/doors replacements leaves with best-in-classfenestration and a retrofit plan leading to a net-zero ready home?

Regulatory tools1. Labelling at time of renovation and/or sale

2. Annual benchmarking and disclosure

3. High efficiency standards for equipment

4. Retrofit code

Thanks!

Tom-Pierre Frappé-Sénéclauzetompierrefs@pembina.org tw: @tompierrefs

pembina.orgtwitter.com/pembina facebook.com/pembina.institute

Building stock evolution

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Build

ing

Floo

r A

rea

(mill

ion

m2)

Pre-2000 construction

2000-2010 construction

Net-zero energy ready

Current code and high performance

Building stock evolution

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Build

ing

Floo

r A

rea

(mill

ion

m2)

Pre-2000 construction

2000-2010 construction

Net-zero energy ready

1/3

2/3 1/2

1/2TODAY

Building sector emissions: 11%

7 MtCO2

e

Commercial (other than offices), VALUE

Office, 1.0

Institutional, VALUEApartments, 0.7

Ground oriented, 3.5

Data: NRCan CEUD 2014 & SCIEU 2009

2050 targetsEnv. & Climate Change Canada overall: -80% (below 2005)

Stationary sources -87%

Trottier, current technology scenario overall: -65% (below 2015)

residential - 87%

commercial - 76%

Trottier, new technology scenario overall: -65% (below 2015)

residential -89%

commercial -88%

Deep decarbonization pathways overall: -89% (below 2015)

residential -99%

commercial -99%

... B.C. buildings:

-80% to 100% By 2050

i.e. near total decarbonization

Sources: University of Massachusetts & energy efficiency industrial forum

$1M spent

5.3 jobsin energy sector

13-18 jobs in energy efficiency sector