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![Page 1: Neil Donnelly, Patricia Menéndez & Nicole Mahoney NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research February, 2015.](https://reader038.fdocuments.in/reader038/viewer/2022110321/56649cf85503460f949c813c/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Neil Donnelly, Patricia Menéndez & Nicole Mahoney
NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research
February, 2015
![Page 2: Neil Donnelly, Patricia Menéndez & Nicole Mahoney NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research February, 2015.](https://reader038.fdocuments.in/reader038/viewer/2022110321/56649cf85503460f949c813c/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
BackgroundEvidence of relationship between total liquor
licence concentrations & some harms (e.g. assaults, motor vehicle accidents)
Local areas with a higher no. of liquor outlets have more of these problems (Gruenewald et al., 2006; Chikritzhs et al., 2007)
However some variability about the most important licensed premises type for these harms (e.g. hotels/on-premises or packaged liquor)
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Current outlet density study
Investigate the relationship between liquor licence concentrations and assault rates in New South Wales LGAscross-sectional design using 2011 data
![Page 4: Neil Donnelly, Patricia Menéndez & Nicole Mahoney NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research February, 2015.](https://reader038.fdocuments.in/reader038/viewer/2022110321/56649cf85503460f949c813c/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Research questions
Is there an association between liquor licence concentrations in LGAs in NSW and:
1. DV related assault rates?
2. Non-DV related assault rates?
after controlling for important covariates
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Are concentrations of particular licence types
associated with higher assault rates?
a) Hotel licences
b) Packaged liquor licences
c) On-Premises licences
d) Club licences
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Is there a linear or a non-linear relationship
between liquor licence concentration and assault?
Does this differ by liquor licence type?
Spatial autocorrelation between LGAs and assault rates measured & taken account of
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Data sourcesRecorded crime
• DV and non-DV assault incidents in 2011 (COPS data)
• DV & non-DV assault rates (per 1,ooo pop in LGAs)
Liquor licensing • Licence types operating in 2011 (OLGR, NSW)
• Hotel rates (per 1,ooo pop in LGAs)
• Packaged liquor rates • On-Premises rates• Club rates
![Page 8: Neil Donnelly, Patricia Menéndez & Nicole Mahoney NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research February, 2015.](https://reader038.fdocuments.in/reader038/viewer/2022110321/56649cf85503460f949c813c/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Other LGA data LGA population size (ERP)
LGA population density
% males aged 15-34 yrs
% Indigenous (ATSI)
Socio-economic disadvantage (SEIFA IRSD)
location category (ARIA)
% born in non-English speaking country
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LGAs included 147 of 152 LGAs used in final analyses (97% of
LGAs) Exclusions
City of Sydney Snowy River Broken Hill Urana Conargo
One LGA excluded during final analyses diagnostics as an outlier (n=146; 96% of LGAs)
Warren
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AnalysesLog transformation of each assault rate
Linear regression (OLS)Moran’s I - spatial autocorrelation present?
Simultaneous Autoregression (SAR)Lambda (λ) – spatial autocorrelation taken account of?
SAR weighted
Diagnostics – model selection
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Mean Median25th
percentile75th
percentile
DV related assault rate
(per 1,000 population)
5.13 3.67 2.55 5.68
Non-DV related assault rate
(per 1,000 population)
5.88 4.83 2.88 7.30
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SAR weighted model
(n=146)
Estimate SE p value
Constant 7.107 1.328 < .001 *
Hotels linear -0.400 0.175 = .023 *
Hotels non-linear squared -0.324 0.194 = .096
Hotels non-linear cubed 0.236 0.053 < .001 *
Packaged linear -1.647 0.255 < .001 *
Packaged non-linear squared -3.043 0.709 < .001 *
Packaged non-linear cubed 10.974 1.564 < .001 *
On-Premises linear 0.229 0.049 < .001 *
Clubs linear 0.291 0.125 = .020 *
Population density# 0.000 0.000 = .320
Indigenous (%) 0.029 0.006 < .001 *
Males 15-34 years (%) 0.055 0.024 = .023 *
Socio-economic disadvantage -0.007 0.001 < .001 *
Born NES country (%) -0.002 0.013 = .848
City 0.077 0.333 = .817
Outer regional/remote 0.167 0.094 = .075
λ (lambda) = .237
LR test = 0.60, p = .439
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0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0DV a
ssau
lt ra
te p
er 1
,000
pop
ulati
on (
log)
Hotel concentration per 1,000 population
Figure 1. Hotel concentration and DV assault rate
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0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
0.0 0.5 1.0DV
ass
ault
rat
e pe
r 1,0
00 p
opul
ation
(lo
g)
Packaged liquor concentration per 1,000 population
Figure 2. Packaged liquor concentration and DV assault rate
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0.0
0.5
1.0
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2.0
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3.5
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0
DV a
ssau
lt ra
te p
er 1
,000
pop
ulati
on (
log)
On-Premises concentration per 1,000 population
Figure 3. On-Premises concentration and DV assault rate
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0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5DV
ass
ault
rat
e p
er 1
,000
pop
ulati
on (
log)
Club concentration per 1,000 population
Figure 4. Club concentration and DV assault rate
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DV assault rate – Elasticity effectsLog-Linear
On-Premises10% increase from mean concentration level produced a
2.2% increase in DV assault rate (log)
Clubs10% increase from mean concentration level produced a
1.3% increase in DV assault rate (log)
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SAR model
(n = 146)
Estimate SE p value
Constant 6.638 0.681 < .001 *
Hotels linear -0.119 0.108 = .270
Hotels non-linear squared -0.258 0.128 = .045 *
Hotels non-linear cubed 0.146 0.044 = .001 *
Packaged linear -0.852 0.237 < .001 *
Packaged non-linear squared -1.330 0.713 = .062
Packaged non-linear cubed 5.177 1.569 = .001 *
On-Premises linear 0.314 0.051 < .001 *
Clubs linear -0.463 0.200 = .021 *
Clubs non-linear squared 0.494 0.199 = .013 *
Population density# 0.000 0.000 = .057
Indigenous (%) 0.029 0.005 < .001 *
Males 15-34 years (%) 0.090 0.016 < .001 *
Socio-economic disadvantage -0.006 0.001 < .001 *
Born NES country (%) -0.014 0.004 = .001 *
λ (lambda) = .109
LR test = 0.90, p = .342
# Population density estimate is -0.0000586
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0.0
0.5
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2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
0.0 0.5 1.0
Non
-DV
assa
ult
rate
per
1,0
00 p
opul
ation
(lo
g)
Packaged liquor concentration per 1,000 population
Figure 6. Packaged liquor concentration and non-DV assault rate
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0.0
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1.0
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2.0
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3.0
3.5
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0
Non
-DV
ass
ault
rat
e p
er 1
,000
pop
ulati
on (
log)
On-Premises concentration per 1,000 population
Figure 7. On-Premises concentration and non-DV assault rate
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Non-DV assault rate – Elasticity effectLog-Linear
On-Premises10% increase from mean concentration level produced a
3.0% increase in non-DV assault rate (log)
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0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5Non
-DV
assa
ult
rate
per
1,0
00 p
opul
ation
(lo
g)
Club concentration per 1,000 population
Figure 8. Club concentration and non-DV assault rate
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SummaryDifferent concentration effects found by licence type
and assault type adjusted for important covariates & spatial autocorrelation
Hotels, very strong non-linear predictor of DV & non-DV assault rates
Packaged liquor also a non-linear predictor but not as strong as hotels
On-Premises, strong linear predictor of both assault rates
Clubs strong linear predictor of DV assault rates non-linear predictor of non-DV assault but smaller effect size
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LimitationsHotel licences can also supply packaged alcohol
Does not apply to LGAs with a very high transient population
Lack of alcohol sales data
Cross-sectional study, not longitudinal
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General conclusionsConsistent with other cross-sectional outlet density
studies strong relationship between high concentrations of licensed
premises and assault rates
Non-linear effects for hotels of particular policy importance
Longitudinal studies also very important to assess effects of changes in the concentration of licence types