Neil Cliffe, Department of Agriculture and Fisheries,...

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Neil Cliffe, Department of Agriculture and Fisheries, Mackay

Transcript of Neil Cliffe, Department of Agriculture and Fisheries,...

Neil Cliffe, Department of Agriculture and Fisheries, Mackay

}  Climate timescales }  Rainfall variability }  Climate drivers }  Seasonal (MJO) }  Annual (ENSO) }  Decadal }  Current seasonal conditions }  Seasonal rainfall outlooks }  Decisions, decisions…???

Components of the climate system

•  Weather (Daily) •  MJO (~40-60 days) •  El Niño Southern Oscillation (seasonal/annual) ENSO •  Indian Ocean Dipole and Southern Annular Mode •  Quasi-Decadal (9-13 years) •  Inter-Decadal (PDO, IPO; 20 years) •  Human induced trends (GHGs, aerosols, ozone hole) •  Solar variability (thousands of years, ice ages) •  Volcanic activity •  Feedback of land surface on climate

Rainfall Variability in Australia

Posi%on  of  the  Inter-­‐tropical  Convergence  Zone  (ITCZ)  or  Monsoon  Trough  in  January  and  July  

Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO)

•  Area of low pressure moving across the tropics from east Africa to eastern Pacific

•  Cycle every 40-60 days •  8 phases of location •  Each phase has a

different impact on Australian rainfall

ENSO  -­‐  El  Nino  Southern  Oscilla3on  

La Nina e.g. 2011

SST Patterns

El Nino e.g. 1982

ENSO El Nino - Southern Oscillation

SOI  values  

El  Nino  and  La  Nina  rainfall  

El Niño years

Neutral years

La Niña years

% chance of exceeding median rainfall

0-20

40-60%

70-90%

Percentile 0-10 10-20 20-30 30-40 40-50 50-60 60-70 70-80 80-90

90-100

Extremely low Average Extremely high

Quasi-­‐decadal  (9-­‐13  year  cycles)  1991- 1996 1996 - 2001 .

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2001 - 2007

www.LongPaddock.qld.gov.au

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2007 - 2012

low

high

Rainfall relative to historical records

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…..and  the  last  3  years  

   

Summary  from  Grazing  Forum  2015  •  El Nino climate pattern developing – central Pacific SST’s, SOI

values, WWB’s etc. with occasional fluctuations (e.g. MJO) triggering relief rain.

•  All surveyed models indicate this pattern will intensify towards El Nino (~70% BoM).

•  ECMWF forecast products provide a range of newer options to look at rainfall outlooks.

•  Negative SOI values will reduce rainfall probabilities during winter, spring and early summer.

Recent  condi%ons  

Summer  pasture  growth  

Recent  Pacific  Condi%ons  

SOI  values  

Chance  >median  rain  3  month  (SOI)  

Chance  >median  rainfall  3month  (ECMWF)  

Rainfall following strong El Nino breakdowns

Feb-Apr 1906 following 1905-06 El Nino Feb-Apr 1973 following 1972-73 El Nino

Apr-Jun 1998 following 1997-98 El Nino Feb-Apr 2010 following 2009-10 El Nino

Chance  >median  rainfall  3month  (ECMWF)  

ENSO  Model  outlooks  

SST  Anomalies  Forecast  

Mackay  Sugar  Mill  Rainfall  Probabili%es  -­‐  March  to  May  2016  (Consistently  Nega%ve  SOI  Jan-­‐Feb)  

 •  Mackay  Sugar  March  to  May  2016    •  100%  chance  of  exceeding  220mm    •  90%  248mm    •  80%  299mm    •  70%  305mm    •  60%  347mm    •  50%  414mm    •  40%  453mm    •  30%  547mm    •  20%  592mm    •  10%  873mm    Max  ever  recorded  this  pa\ern  911mm    Probability  of  exceeding  the  long-­‐term  median:  50%    

Grazing  decisions  made  using  weather  and  climate  forecasts  

Decisions  Short-­‐term  (tac3cal)  –  days,  weeks,  months  –  7-­‐10  days,  MJO  

Long-­‐term  (strategic)  –  season,  mul3-­‐season,  mul3-­‐years  –  ENSO,  SOI,  SST,  PDO,  ECMWF    

Stocking  rate  management  and  adjustment  (i.e.  buy,  breed,  wean,  sell,  agistment),  pasture  establishment,  animal  supplementa%on,  labour,  helicopter  hire,  holidays    

Enterprise  mix,  water  infrastructure,  fencing,  herd  dynamics,  pasture  improvement,  woody  weed  and  regrowth  control,  drought  prepara%on  (fodder  storage),  herd  reduc%on,  marke%ng,  property  investment/divestment    

   

Informa%on  sources…    

•  Numerous websites •  Weekly text based email updates from Dr Roger

Stone covering: –  Rainfall in the next week –  Experimental forecast output for two weeks ahead –  Passage of the MJO –  Seasonal update including SOI

•  Monthly reports updating climate outlook in greater depth with links to useful sites.

   

Summary  •  Current El Nino climate pattern has peaked – Watch SOI and other

climate model outputs to understand what pattern we will enter next.

•  Knowing when the MJO is likely to pass through our latitudes can be a useful guide to the timing of rainfall events.

•  ECMWF forecast products provide a range of newer options to look at rainfall outlooks with a longer lead time.

•  Strong El Nino events in the past have broken with higher than average rainfall amounts.

•  Continually update yourself with information to stay informed.

    Thanks!!  

QUESTIONS…???

Contact email: [email protected]

Grazing in Queensland

•  Native pasture occupies ~90% Qld •  Value of production $3.6b 2012/13 (35% of Qld Agriculture) •  Grazing industry is highly variable

–  Climate (decadal, annual, seasonal, daily variation) •  annual rainfall variability (Co-efficient of variation %)

–  Charters Towers 40%, Longreach 50%, Birdsville 70%, Innamincka 90% •  seasonal variability - winter pasture growth is limited by

–  moisture, frost, temperature

–  Efficiency of water use (WUE) 2-10 kg/ha/mm –  Nutrient availability is low and variable (10-30 kgN/ha/yr) which is

enhanced by competition from trees –  Use of fire has decreased resulting in an increase in the

establishment of woody weeds

SOI  projec%ons  next  12  months  

BOM  SOI  predictions  over  the  next  12  monthsMay June July August September October November December-­‐10.07 -­‐10.26 -­‐8.84 -­‐9.11 -­‐9.49 -­‐9.49 -­‐9.43 -­‐9.07January February March April-­‐8.59 -­‐9.65 -­‐8.74 -­‐6.96

Decadal  •  Pacific  decadal  

Oscilla%on  •  Inter-­‐decadal  

Pacific  Oscilla%on  •  Limited  forecast  

capability  

Nebo  –  10  year  moving  average  

Nebo  (Nov-­‐Mar)  

Chance  >median  rainfall  3month  (ECMWF)  

Chance  >median  rainfall  3month  (ECMWF)  

Madden  Julian  Oscilla%on  (MJO)