Negative Ads
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Transcript of Negative Ads
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Negative Ads
• What make an ad “negative”?
• How do voters respond to such ads?
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Negative Campaign Ads
• As a strategy– Classic examples– What lessons– Always wrong?– What effects?
• Turnout• Voter opinions• Blow-back
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Negative Campaign Ads
• Classic examples– Begs questions:
• What is negative?• What is unfair?
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Negative Campaigns
• Classic examples– LBJ Daisy Girl ad– 1964 vs. Barry Goldwater Ad– Just once
• What are voters supposed to hear? • What did they hear?
– Vote LBJ, or they’ll nuke your kid
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1964 & Goldwater
• Daisey Girl• Ice Cream• KKK• Convention• East coast
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1964 & Goldwater
• Would Goldwater have lost anyway?– Economy strong– Incumbent popular– LBJ also running positive ads– Nation at war– Goldwater did say those things
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Negative Campaigns
• Classic Examples– Willie Horton– 1988 Bush I vs. Dukakis– Lee Atwater… “only question, which hand”– Just once (or twice)
• How define candidate?• Why able to define candidate?
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Negative Campaigns
• Classic examples– Willie Horton
• Why did this one reach legend status?– Aired only once ‘anonymously’– Spawned free coverage– Woven into ‘official’campaign message– Opinion shifted
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Negative Campaigns
• Classic examples– Bush v. Dukakis 1988– Informal co-ordination (compare to superPacs)– Bush campaign could define an unknown
candidate – Dukakis made it easy on them TANK AD– Media felt guilty, took it out on Bush I in 1992?
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Negative Campaigns?
• Dukakis had it coming?• Tank photo among 100 photos that change
the World– Anne Frank portrait– Fire hoses and dogs in Birmingham, AL– Tienneman Square (tank standoff)
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Tanks
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1988 & Dukakis
• Would Dukakis have lost anyway?– GHW Bush Reagan’s VP– Reagan popular– Economy OK
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Negative Campaigns
• Classic example– Jesse Helms, Hands– 1990 US Senate vs. Harvey Gantt
• Context matters– Helms campaign guilty of letters threatening
black voters with jail if they voted– “qualifications don’t matter…”
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Negative campaigns
• Playing the race card?– Call Me, Harold Ford Jr.– Corker ad
– RNC / Corker campaign accused of racism
– Would Ford have lost anyway?• TN a “red” state
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Negative Campaigns
• Classic examples– Chambliss vs Max Cleland US Senate 2002– Karl Rove painting. Vietnam vet as unpatriotic
• Link conservative Dem to OsBL – Could ad have happened if not for 9/11?– Bill Clinton recently said MoveOn ad lowest
thing since this
– Would Cleland have lost?
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Negative Campaigns
• More recent examples– 2004 National elections– Karl Rove– GOP, “These are the stakes”
• Democrats = you will die?– at least that’s how they spun it
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Negative Campaigns
• Bush v. Kerry, 2004– SwiftBoat Vets (Kerry’s words)– SwiftBoat Vets (Kerry lying)
• Independent hit from 527 org• Wolves• Windsurfing
– Policy content? No appeal to fear?
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Kerry & 2004
• Would Kerry have lost anyway?– Bush incumbent– Economy OK– Close election– Kerry led in national polls until August
• No robust response to SBVT ads
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Negative Campaigns
• Recent examples– McCain 2008
• First ad• Disrespectful• Highest percent of ads negative
– Obama 2008• Country• Embrace• Enough $ to go negative and positive
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2008 Campaign
• Any Democrat would have won– What effect of ads?– What effect of money?
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2012 Primaries
• SuperPac spending vs. candidate spending– Gingrich SuperPac “What kind of man?”– Gingrich SuperPac “Blood Money”– Gingrich SuperPac ad Unelectable– Romney SuperPac Reagan ad– Romney SuperPac Unelectable– Romney Tom Brokaw ad
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2012 Primaries
• Compare to 2008 Primary• What effect negative ads?• Romney able to beat back Newt’s SC surge
in FL• Could Romney win nomination w/o
negative ads?– Romney’s “unfavorable” rating rising
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Negative Campaigns
• What lessons• Some on winning side, some on losing side• Potential to define a candidate
– Goldwater, Dukakis, Kerry• Potential to de-mobilize (this may be goal)• Potential for blowback
– Clinton ‘08 (3am ad)
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Negative Campaigns
• When wrong• What criteria to say, too negative?
– Fear– Race– Religion– Policy?– Do we learn something…(other than fear, race,
religion..)
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Negative ads
• What effects?– Reduce turnout (???)– Generate interest / attention to news– Generate dissatisfaction with choices
– (Re)define candidate• Goldwater, Dukakis, Kerry, Romney• What if target lacks resources to respond…
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The Virtue of Negative Ads
• What effects; Prof. John G. Geer• Is there policy content/ learning
– To change, to hold accountable, to change status quo needs being critical
– Must have ‘vetting’• Analysis of ballot initiative ads• The Geer ad
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Best Ad of Late
• Dale Peterson for Alabama Agriculture Commission
– First– Second