Nearshore Surface Oil Forecast Deepwater Horizon...
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h Bay St Louis Gulfport Pascagoula Mobile Pensacola Freeport Milton St. Andrew Apa Venice Atchafalaya Bay Barataria Bay Breton Sound Chandeleur Sound Terrebonne Bay Caillou Bay 86°0'0"W 86°0'0"W 87°0'0"W 87°0'0"W 88°0'0"W 88°0'0"W 89°0'0"W 89°0'0"W 90°0'0"W 90°0'0"W 91°0'0"W 91°0'0"W 92°0'0"W 92°0'0"W 31°0'0"N 31°0'0"N 30°0'0"N 30°0'0"N 29°0'0"N 29°0'0"N 28°0'0"N 28°0'0"N 27°0'0"N 27°0'0"N 26°0'0"N 26°0'0"N 25°0'0"N 25°0'0"N 24°0'0"N 24°0'0"N h Bay St Louis Gulfport Pascagoula Mobile Pensacola Freeport Milton St. Andrew Apa Venice Atchafalaya Bay Barataria Bay Breton Sound Chandeleur Sound Terrebonne Bay Caillou Bay 86°0'0"W 86°0'0"W 87°0'0"W 87°0'0"W 88°0'0"W 88°0'0"W 89°0'0"W 89°0'0"W 90°0'0"W 90°0'0"W 91°0'0"W 91°0'0"W 92°0'0"W 92°0'0"W 31°0'0"N 31°0'0"N 30°0'0"N 30°0'0"N 29°0'0"N 29°0'0"N 28°0'0"N 28°0'0"N 27°0'0"N 27°0'0"N 26°0'0"N 26°0'0"N 25°0'0"N 25°0'0"N 24°0'0"N 24°0'0"N Nearshore Surface Oil Forecast Deepwater Horizon MC252 Uncertainty Light Medium Heavy Trajectory Potential beached oil X This forecast is based on the NWS spot forecast from Wednesday, June 23 PM. Currents were obtained from several models (West Florida Shelf/USF, TGLO/TAMU, NAVO/NRL) and HFR measurements. The model was initialized from Wednesday satellite imagery analysis (NOAA/NESDIS) and overflight observations. The leading edge may contain tarballs that are not readily observable from the imagery (hence not included in the model initialization). Oil near bay inlets could be brought into that bay by local tidal currents. Forecast location for oil on 26-June-10 at 1200 CDT Next Forecast: June 24th PM Mississippi Canyon 252 Incident Location Moderate SE winds (8-12 kts) are forecast to become E overnight and continue to have an easterly component (E/ESE/ENE) through Saturday. Trajectories indicate westward currents within the Mississippi Bight region will inhibit further movement of the slick to the east. Coastal regions between Ship Island, MS and Freeport, FL are threatened by shoreline contacts within this forecast period. Under persistent easterly winds, the Chandeleur Islands, Breton Sound and the Mississippi Delta are increasingly threatened by shoreline contacts in this forecast period. 0 40 80 20 Miles The offshore forecast has been temporarily stopped due to small amounts of oil offshore, the absence of recent observations confirming significant amounts of oil in offshore areas, and the large separation between the loop current complex and the oil slick. Forecasts will resume if the threat returns. Nearshore Estimate for: 1200 CDT, Saturday, 6/26/10 Date Prepared: 2100 CDT, Wednesday, 6/23/10 NOAA/NOS/OR&R
Transcript of Nearshore Surface Oil Forecast Deepwater Horizon...
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Bay St LouisGulfport Pascagoula
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NearshoreSurface Oil Forecast
Deepwater Horizon MC252
UncertaintyLightMediumHeavy
Trajectory
Potentialbeached oilX
This forecast is based on the NWS spot forecast from Wednesday, June 23 PM. Currents were obtained from several models(West Florida Shelf/USF, TGLO/TAMU, NAVO/NRL) and HFR measurements. The model was initialized from Wednesdaysatellite imagery analysis (NOAA/NESDIS) and overflight observations. The leading edge may contain tarballs that are notreadily observable from the imagery (hence not included in the model initialization). Oil near bay inlets could be broughtinto that bay by local tidal currents.
Forecast location for oilon 26-June-10 at 1200 CDT
Next Forecast:June 24th PM
Mississippi Canyon 252Incident Location
Moderate SE winds (8-12 kts) are forecast to become E overnight and continue to have an easterlycomponent (E/ESE/ENE) through Saturday. Trajectories indicate westward currents within theMississippi Bight region will inhibit further movement of the slick to the east. Coastal regionsbetween Ship Island, MS and Freeport, FL are threatened by shoreline contacts within this forecastperiod. Under persistent easterly winds, the Chandeleur Islands, Breton Sound and the MississippiDelta are increasingly threatened by shoreline contacts in this forecast period.
0 40 8020
Miles
The offshore forecast has been temporarily stopped due to smallamounts of oil offshore, the absence of recent observationsconfirming significant amounts of oil in offshore areas, and thelarge separation between the loop current complex and the oilslick. Forecasts will resume if the threat returns.
Nearshore
Estimate for: 1200 CDT, Saturday, 6/26/10Date Prepared: 2100 CDT, Wednesday, 6/23/10
NOAA/NOS/OR&R
