Near Real-Time Verification At The Forecast Systems Laboratory: An Operational Perspective Michael...
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Transcript of Near Real-Time Verification At The Forecast Systems Laboratory: An Operational Perspective Michael...
Near Real-Time Verification At The Forecast Systems Laboratory: An Operational Perspective
Michael P. Kay (CIRES/FSL/NOAA)Jennifer L. Mahoney (FSL/NOAA)
Background
Aviation forecast verification project initiated in the early 1990s in the Aviation Division of Forecast Systems Laboratory
Initial RTVS was created in 1997. Version was transferred to operational environment at the Aviation Weather Center (AWC).
Real-time means 'as soon as possible'
System has matured to support a diverse set of forecasts with an emphasis on aviation
Fully-automated; runs 24/7 without human intervention
RTVS has an aviation focus but also includes other areas
Supports numerous forecast types including human-generated, numerical models, and algorithms from both operational and experimental settings
Example session of a user generating a time series of Critical Success Index (CSI) for two different products for an arbitrary date range
Components of a Verification System
Data Ingest
Data Pre-processing
Data Storage and Archive
Analysis and Visualization
VerificationThe actual comparison of forecast and observations
RTVS Architecture
10 node/20 CPU cluster
Redundant ingest, scheduling, database, and web servers
Currently process more than 10 Gb per day
Online storage capacity of nearly 7 Tb
Data Ingest
Scheduler
ComputationalCluster
Relational Database
Web Interface
ChallengesMeeting the needs of numerous user groups (forecasters, managers, etc.)
Creating and implementing relevant scientific techniques
Defining and meeting user requirements! (hardware and software) Is the project feasible?
Understanding what information is relevant to present Displays (e.g., maps) are highly relevant in real-time Other tools may be more useful in longer-term settings
Data management
Training and documentation
Knowledge of hardware and software performance is crucial
Real-time displays that combine meaningful information
Summary and Future Directions
www-ad.fsl.noaa.gov/fvb/rtvs/
Real-time verification is a challenging exercise requiring expertise in meteorology, statistics, software and hardware design
Forecast verification is only one part of a verification system
Numerous lessons learned over the last 10 years are factoring into a re-engineering effort to produce the next-generation RTVS