NE Climate Change Adaptation Action Plan FINAL · PDF fileName of project: New England...

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Climate Change Adaptation Action Plan New England Strategic Alliance of Councils (NESAC) Local Adaptation Pathways Program FINAL REPORT 31 August 2009

Transcript of NE Climate Change Adaptation Action Plan FINAL · PDF fileName of project: New England...

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Climate Change Adaptation Action Plan

New England Strategic Alliance of Councils (NESAC)

Local Adaptation Pathways Program

FINAL REPORT 31 August 2009

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Climate Change Adaptation Action Plan New England Strategic Alliance of Councils (NESAC) Local Adaptation Pathways Program

FINAL REPORT 31 August 2009

Sinclair Knight Merz ABN 37 001 024 095 590 Orrong Road, Armadale 3143 PO Box 2500 Malvern VIC 3144 Australia Tel: +61 3 9248 3100 Fax: +61 3 9248 3000 Web: www.skmconsulting.com COPYRIGHT: The concepts and information contained in this document are the property of the New England Strategic Alliance of Councils. NESAC grants the Australian Government a non-exclusive right to use the material.

LIMITATION: This report has been prepared on behalf of and for the exclusive use of Sinclair Knight Merz Pty Ltd’s client, and is subject to and issued in connection with the provisions of the agreement between Sinclair Knight Merz and its client. Sinclair Knight Merz accepts no liability or responsibility whatsoever for or in respect of any use of or reliance upon this report by any third party.

While every reasonable effort has been made to ensure that this document is correct at the time of publication, NESAC, its agents and employees, disclaim any and all liability to any person in respect of anything or the consequences of anything done or omitted to be done in reliance upon the whole or part of this document.

The Australian Government Department of Climate Change has assessed this report in accordance with the terms and conditions of the Local Adaptation Pathways Funding Agreement. However, this does not constitute endorsement of the material contained in this report by the Australian Government.

This report has been partly funded by the Australian Government Department of Climate Change under its Local Adaptation Pathways Program. It was prepared by Sinclair Knight Merz on behalf of NESAC which owns the copyright for this document.

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Contents

1.  Introduction 1 1.1.  Project Context 1 1.2.  Purpose and Scope of Climate Change Adaptation Action Plan 1 1.3.  New England Strategic Alliance of Councils 2 1.4.  Methodology 2 

2.  Climate Change Risk Assessment 5 2.1.  Risk Assessment Methodology 5 2.2.  Results of Risk Assessment 5 

3.  Background to Climate Change Adaptation 7 3.1.  What is Climate Change Adaptation? 7 3.2.  Why Get Involved in Adaptation? 8 

4.  Climate Change Adaptation Action Plan 10 4.1.  Purpose of Action Plan 10 4.2.  Vision and Objectives 10 4.3.  Process of Developing Adaptation Actions 11 4.4.  Adaptation Actions 12 

5.  Implementation of Action Plan 35 5.1.  Implementation and Governance 35 5.2.  Monitoring Action Plan 35 5.3.  Review of Action Plan 36 

6.  References 37 

Appendix A  Risk Assessment Report 38 

Appendix B  Adaptation Workshop Participants 40 

Appendix C  Extract from Adapting to Climate Change, A Queensland Local Government Guide 43 

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Document history and status Revision Date issued Reviewed by Approved by Date approved Revision type

1 15 April 2009 R. Ducker P. Locke 15 April 2009 Draft to client

2 4 June 2009 R. Ducker P. Locke 4 June 2009 Draft Final to client

3 17 June 2009 R. Ducker S. Gow 17 June 2009 Draft Final to client

4 31 August 2009 R Ducker P. Locke 31 August 2009 Final Report to client

Distribution of copies Revision Copy no Quantity Issued to

1 1 1 Stephen Gow, Armidale Dumaresq Council

2 1 1 Stephen Gow, Armidale Dumaresq Council

3 1 1 Stephen Gow, Armidale Dumaresq Council

4 1 1 Stephen Gow, Armidale Dumaresq Council

Printed: 31 August 2009

Last saved: 31 August 2009 02:29 PM

File name: I:\QENV\Projects\QE06384\Deliverables\NE Climate Change Adaptation Action Plan Final 240809

Author: Rachel Ducker

Project manager: Paul Locke / Rachel Ducker

Name of organisation: New England Strategic Alliance of Councils

Name of project: New England Strategic Alliance of Councils Climate Change Adaptation Project

Name of document: NESAC Climate Change Adaptation Action Plan

Document version: 4

Project number: QE06384

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1. Introduction 1.1. Project Context

Local government can play a critical role in addressing climate change as it is the level of government closest to communities and the immediate impacts of climate change. Local government provides local community governance, leadership, policy setting and decision making and is well positioned to assist the community to adapt to the physical, environmental, economic and social impacts of climate change.

Climate change has been recognised internationally as a significant issue with the potential to have a major impact on human and natural systems. The Australian and NSW Governments have responded to increased community interest in climate change by committing resources to climate change research, policy setting, mitigation and adaptation. The Australian Government Department of Climate Change has been established to lead the development and coordination of national climate change policies. The NSW Government Department of Environment, and Climate Change and Water coordinates the NSW Government’s reponse to climate change including policy development and program delivery.

This project has been funded by a grant from the Australian Government’s Local Adaptation Pathways Program (LAPP) and by the New England Strategic Alliance of Councils (NESAC) through a cash and in-kind contribution. The Australian Government’s LAPP was established to provide local government with resources to assist in assessing risks from climate change and developing an Adaptation Action Plan. NESAC is one of the first groups of Councils across Australia to prepare a coordinated, regional strategy to respond to risks associated with climate change.

1.2. Purpose and Scope of Climate Change Adaptation Action Plan

Climate change will create risks and opportunities for the region that need to be managed and/ or capitalised on in order to ensure the ongoing prosperity of the region. NESAC has prepared this Action Plan to provide a coordinated, regional approach to respond to risks associated with climate change.

Substantial attention has been given to climate change mitigation or actions to reduce the extent of future climate change both in Australia and overseas. Less effort has been given to identifying actions required to respond to the unavoidable impacts of climate change which are now seen as inevitable, to ensure ongoing economic, environmental and social sustainability.

This project has identified key risks to local government functions and service delivery associated with climate change and identifies strategies which respond or adapt to risks associated with

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climate change. It focuses on addressing extreme and high level risks resulting from climate change identified through a risk identification process which formed an earlier stage of the project (see Appendix A). Other risks identified as being tolerable or low level risks are not addressed as part of this Action Plan.

This Climate Change Adaptation Action Plan (Action Plan) is based on an acceptance by NESAC that climate change is occurring and will continue to affect the New England region in the future. Detailed examination of climate change evidence is beyond the scope of the project.

1.3. New England Strategic Alliance of Councils

NESAC was formed on 16 February 2004 with member Councils comprising the Armidale Dumaresq Council, Guyra Shire Council, Uralla Shire Council, Walcha Council and the New England Weeds Authority (NEWA). NESAC was established to identify and examine opportunities for delivering services cooperatively across the New England region with greater economic efficiency without sacrificing community independence or representation.

NESAC operates under a charter setting out arrangements for the conduct and management of shared services provided by one or more member organisations of NESAC. The charter establishes the following NESAC vision for the region:

“A region with vibrant and sustainable communities where all residents have the opportunity to achieve an enhanced quality of life, supported by an innovative and collaborative partnership between local government bodies in the region.”

Walcha Council resolved to withdraw from NESAC in 2009/10 but still remains committed to working with other NESAC partners to complete and implement this project.

1.4. Methodology

This Action Plan has been prepared in the following stages:

1. Stage 1 Risk identification.

2. Stage 2 Climate change adaptation planning.

Stage 1, the risk identification stage, included:

Assessing climate change data/scenarios used.

Risk assessment workshops.

The risk assessment workshops identified, analysed and evaluated climate change risks based on the following three themes; planning and environment; infrastructure and infrastructure services

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and corporate and community services. A further risk workshop was held to review the outcomes of the previous three workshops.

The second stage of the project, climate change adaptation planning, involved holding workshops with key Council Officers and Councillors, representatives from other environmental agencies and the University of New England (see Appendix B). The workshops involved discussing and developing actions which respond to the impacts/risks associated with climate change identified in Stage 1 of the project.

A Draft Climate Change Adaptation Action Plan was prepared and released for community and stakeholder feedback in June 2009. Submissions were recevied from the following parties:

NSW Department of Environment and Climate Change (now NSW Department of Environment, Climate Change and Water).

NSW Department of Primary Industries (now part of NSW Industry and Investment).

State Emergency Services (SES).

Northern Inland Regional Development Board.

Northern Rivers Catchment Management Authority.

Namoi Catchment Management Authority.

Australian Building Codes Board.

This project has been undertaken in accordance with the broader methodology developed in Climate Change Impacts and Risk Management: A Guide for Business and Government (Australian Greenhouse Office 2006) and the Australian Standard for Risk Assessment and Management (AS/NZS 4360).

This Action Plan also builds on the work undertaken by the NSW Community Climate Consensus Project (NSW CCC Project, 2008) which included community forums to discuss climate change issues in Armidale, Uralla and Guyra. The NSW CCC Project was initiated by the Nature Conservation Council of NSW as a community education program to enable community representatives to work collaboratively to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and participate in climate change decision making.

The NSW CCC Project focused on actions to mitigate or reduce the impacts of climate change. However, it also recommended the following actions which focus on responding to impacts of climate change which are adaptation actions:

Prepare a communication strategy to inform businesses and residents.

Organise community forums and events and prepare community displays.

Prepare newsletters and articles in the media.

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Prepare community education programs.

Improve access to information (ie. website).

Plant community gardens/ planting.

Increase engagement with community (focus groups).

Develop and implement award programs to promote behavioural change.

Matters identified through the NSW CCC Project have been considered in the development of this Action Plan.

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2. Climate Change Risk Assessment 2.1. Risk Assessment Methodology

The initial phase of this Action Plan’s development included a climate change risk assessment for the New England region. A copy of the full risk assessment report is included in Appendix A of this document.

The risk assessment was carried out in accordance with AS/NZS 4360: 2004 Risk Management which prescribes a series of steps in the climate change risk management approach. It is also consistent with advice contained within the Australian Government Department of Climate Change publication, Climate Change Impacts and Risk Management: A Guide for Business and Government prepared to assist in the integration of climate change impacts into risk management and other strategic planning activities within Australian public and private sector organisations.

The risk assessment was based on a climate change scenario developed by the Australian Government Department of Climate Change for the New England region for 2050 and CSIRO climate change projections for the region. This climate change scenario projects that the New England region is likely to become warmer, with more hot days and fewer cold nights. Increased rainfall is projected in spring, summer and autumn with reduced rainfall during winter. Further details of the climate change scenario used are included in Appendix A, Attachment 1

Risks were identified through three workshops held on 26 and 27 November 2008. These workshops identified, analysed and evaluated climate change risks based on the following themes: planning and environment, infrastructure and infrastructure services and corporate and community services which reflect the core responsibilities of participant Councils. The workshops were attended by key NESAC officers representing a range of disciplines and other agency staff. Each workshop involved risk identification and assessment of the likelihood of impacts arising from climate change using a scale rating from extreme risk, high risk, tolerable risk, low risk to no risk. A further workshop was held to review the outcomes of the previous three workshops.

The findings of the risk assessment process were circulated to participants and Council officers and the Australian Government Department of Climate Change for consideration and comment. Subsequent amendments were made to the risk report to reflect responses received.

2.2. Results of Risk Assessment

A summary of the risk assessment process and outcomes is provided in Table 1 below. Risks are either identified as extreme risks which are unacceptably high, where action should be taken to address these risks as a matter of priority, or high risks which are less urgent but where action is still required to make the risk as low as reasonably achievable.

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Table 1 Climate Change Risk Assessment Summary

Themes Sub-Theme Risks Risk Rating Planning and Environment

Water Changes in water table impacts on quality and security of water supply

Extreme

Increased algal bloom in water supply High

Reduction in non-reticulated water supply for rural/domestic use

High

Reduction in surface water available for agricultural use

High

Waterways Reduced health of waterways due to sedimentation and eutorophication

Extreme

Flooding Increased flooding in low lying developed areas and extension of flood range

High

Ecosystems Loss of aquatic ecosystem services/values High

Biodiversity Loss of biodiversity Extreme

Weeds Increased weed infestation Extreme

Vegetation Loss of non-urban vegetation Extreme

Species composition Change in species composition of local environment

Extreme

Bush fire Increased bushfire risk to settlements and infrastructure

High

Infrastructure and Infrastructure Services

Dams Increased risk of dam failure Extreme

Bridges Reduced structural stability of timber bridges with heightened chance of failure

Extreme

Pipes Increased cracking of pipes High

Buildings Increased noise complaints due to growth in air conditioner use

High

Increased expenditure on upgrades to insulation/cooling systems and building storm water systems

High

Roads Increased damage to road surfaces High

Increased damage to unsealed roads High

Stormwater Inadequate stormwater infrastructure capacity resulting in larger floods

High

Increased stormwater infiltration into sewerage system

High

Corporate and community services

Agricultural production Increased agricultural production pressure with negative environmental impacts

Extreme

Air transport Reduced reliability of air transport services High

Health Increased demand for mental health services High

Increased potential for water borne disease High

Increased heat stress on staff and residents with potential for increased mortality

High

Increased storm related injury and death High

Economic development Failure to identify and take advantage of emerging markets

High

Climate driven economic crisis High

Infrastructure Reduced reliability of power supply High

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3. Background to Climate Change Adaptation 3.1. What is Climate Change Adaptation?

The focus of this Action Plan is on climate change adaptation rather than climate change mitigation. Climate change mitigation relates to management and reduction of energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. While consideration of climate change mitigation is important, a substantial amount of effort has been given to reducing the impacts of processes contributing to climate change. Less attention has been given to climate change adaptation, which is critical to managing impacts of projected climate change.

Climate change adaptation is described as:

“Adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities. Various types of adaptation can be distinguished, including autonomous and planned adaptation:

autonomous adaptation – adaptation that does not constitute a conscious response to climatic stimuli but is triggered by ecological changes in natural systems and by market or welfare changes in human systems – also referred to as spontaneous adaptation.

planned adaptation – adaptation that is a result of a deliberate policy decision, based on an awareness that conditions have changed or are about to change and that action is required to return to, maintain or achieve a desired state.

reactive adaptation - adaptation that takes places after impacts of change have been observed.

(Australian Greenhouse Office (AGO), 2007).

Adaptation actions or response measures are developed in response to actual or projected climate change impacts that lead to a reduction in risks or realisation of benefits (Marsden Jacob Associates (et al), 2008). They often involve making adjustments to existing and planned practices so that vulnerability to potential impacts associated with climate change can be reduced or opportunities realised. This has the potential to greatly reduce the costs of climate change impacts provided the response measures are carefully considered and implemented (AGO, 2007).

Adaptive capacity is described as:

“The ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including climate change viability and extremes) to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or cope with the consequences.” (PMSEIC Independent Working Group, 2007).

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3.2. Why Get Involved in Adaptation?

“Adaptation is critical to deal with the unavoidable impacts of climate change to which the world is already committed” (Stern, 2006)

There are a wide range of reasons for climate change adaptation including:

Adopting a precautionary approach, as waiting for full certainty is too late. Avoiding taking decisions now will make it more difficult to manage climate change risks in the future.

Responding to community concerns.

Improving community awareness about climate change risk.

Improving the capacity of community and the Councils to respond to climate change risks.

Avoiding loss of life and property.

Sound financial management.

Protecting resident and community investment.

Responsible planning and management.

Managing risk and legal liability.

Safeguarding assets for the future.

Ensuring property and assets are insurable.

Recent research indicates that 89% of Australians are concerned about climate change (Climate of the Nation, 2006). At the regional level, the New England CCC Project recommended that:

“Local and State Government has the foresight and will to act, to put the planning and thought into understanding the risks and carry out the actions required to cope with the predicted changes in climate.”

Climate change adaptation planning is a method by which local government can respond to community concerns regarding climate change and to increase community awareness about climate change and community capacity to respond to climate change including providing access to information which may influence personal and business decisions.

Climate change adaptation planning can increase the capacity of Councils and other authorities to respond to climate change risks by increasing access to education and encouraging information sharing and working in collaboration with other agencies.

An issues paper prepared by Griffith University (2007) also indicates that local governments are at risk of incurring legal liability if they fail to take reasonable steps to take into account the likely effects of climate change. This paper recommended that local government take into account relevant State planning policies regarding, flooding, bush fire and landslide, referral agencies

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advice and relevant Australian and State Government climate change strategies when making policies and decisions potentially subject to climate change implications.

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4. Climate Change Adaptation Action Plan 4.1. Purpose of Action Plan

This Action Plan will be used to guide actions undertaken by NESAC and member organisations to adapt to risks arising from projected climate change over the long term to 2050. The focus of the Action Plan is on actions which the NESAC member Councils can take to adapt to climate change within the New England region. However, a range of other agencies including the Australian and State Governments, the Northern Rivers, Border Rivers/Gwidir and Namoi Catchment Management Authorities, landcare agencies, local water utilities, the NSW Rural Fire Service and the State Emergency Service (SES) also have a role in planning for climate change adaptation.

This Action Plan has been prepared to:

Respond to known climate change risks identified in the climate change risk analysis stage of the climate change adaptation project.

Achieve integrated governance and management of climate change risks.

Build NESAC’s capacity to respond to risks and to address any organisation barriers to adapting to climate change.

Increase community awareness of risks and strengthen community capacity to respond to climate change risks.

It contains an overall vision for responding to climate change, identifies objectives (what we want to achieve) for climate change adaptation and identifies actions (what we will do) to respond to risks arising from climate change.

4.2. Vision and Objectives

Local government is already undertaking action to manage climate change risks. NESAC’s vision for climate change adaptation within the New England region is to:

“Safeguard the future of the New England region by proactively identifying and managing climate change risks, in partnership with all levels of Government, the community and other stakeholders, to minimise harm to residents and property, facilitate long term sustainability of the natural and physical environment and enhanced quality of life for the community while making the best possible advantage of changed climatic conditions.”

This vision was developed in a Councillor workshop held to develop this Adaptation Action Plan. This vision will be delivered through:

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Considering climate change risks as a fundamental component of NESAC’s long term planning, financial management, operations and service delivery.

Engagement with the community to raise increased awareness of climate change risks and a commitment to community capacity building.

Strong leadership by NESAC and member Councils.

Innovative and collaborative partnership between all three levels of Government, the community and other key stakeholders in the New England region.

The key objectives of this climate change adaptation action plan are to:

Minimise all high and extreme risks arising from projected climate change within the New England region.

Provide practical, cost-effective actions to minimise risks for all high and extreme risks led by NESAC and member Councils.

Develop climate change adaptation actions which could be potentially applied more generally to other climate change risks elsewhere in Australia.

4.3. Process of Developing Adaptation Actions

Adaptation actions were developed through a series of four climate change adaptation workshops. Workshops were held between 2 and 3 March 2009 on the three themes of; planning and environment; corporate and infrastructure. A further workshop was held on 2 March 2009 with Councillors representing each of the four Councils and the General Manager of NEWA. A list of meeting participants is included in Appendix B.

Following the workshops, a process was undertaken to refine and screen the actions. The screening process involved qualitative consideration of the issues identified in Table 2 below.

Table 2 Climate Change Adaption Action Screening Criteria

Criterion Description

Effectiveness Ability of the action to reduce vulnerability and risk either directly or indirectly.

Immediacy Ability of the action to provide immediate risk mitigation or benefit. Financial viability Ability of the action to be implemented within existing budget

allocations, revenue expansion schemes (i.e. rates or levies) or cost sharing with other levels of government or public/private partnerships (i.e. grants).

Political feasibility Action is within the scope of the Councils’ responsibility or sphere of influence and is considered an acceptable course of action by Councillors and Council Officers.

Community acceptance Action would be acceptable to the community and does not unduly infringe upon the rights of residents and businesses.

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Criterion Description

Flexibility Action is able to respond to new information about climate change, and can be modified over time.

Concurrent effects Action avoids negative environmental, social or other unintended consequences and offer benefits beyond mitigating climate change related risk where possible.

Source: Adapted from Climate Change in the Western Port Region: Risks and Adaptation

4.4. Adaptation Actions

Climate change adaptation actions for the New England region are set out in Table 3- 6 based on the following themes:

Table 3 General climate change Table 4 Planning and environment Table 5 Corporate including health, corporate planning,

economic development and emergency management

Table 6 Infrastructure

Table 3 outlines general climate change adaptation actions. Tables 4-6 outline the climate change risk/impact and risk classification (extreme or high) identified in the risk identification stage of this project. The tables also identify actions to address each identified risk, the reasons for identifying particular actions, the priority for implementation of each action, the lead agency nominated for implementation and other contributors to implementation of each action.

Adaptation actions included in this Action Plan primarily include the following types of actions:

Further investigations.

Planning (corporate, land use, emergency management, catchment, parks, infrastructure, natural resources, pest management, risk management, economic development)

Advocacy to State Government and peak industry bodies for increased research/funding.

Education and information programs.

Design (infrastructure, water supply, waste facilities, buildings).

Finance (investment, budgets, procurement, subsidies, grants, rebates and levies)

Regulatory/policy change.

Diversifying or relocation of activities.

Modifying Council/NESAC operations and service delivery.

Building community capacity.

Building organisational capacity and collaborative effort.

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Actions focus on considering risks associated with climate change as an integral part of existing NESAC and member Council activities where possible. This will assist in reducing costs associated with climate change adaptation and ensure that climate change adaptation is a key consideration of Council policy setting, resource allocation, operations and decision making. However, additional actions will be required in some circumstances to address specific climate change risks.

The timeframes for commencement of actions are as follows:

Short term priority: commence within 1-2 years.

Medium term priority: commence within 2-5 years.

Long term priority: commence within 5-10 years.

Regional-wide actions can be coordinated by NESAC while actions specific to individual Councils will need to be led by the respective Council.

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Table 3 Climate Change Risk Adaptation Table – General

Climate Change Risk/Impact

Risk Classification Actions Reason for Action Priority Lead Agency Other Contributors

General

-

Consider climate change risks/impacts when preparing each Council’s Community Strategic Plan and Operational Plan and develop a KPI metric for climate change performance.

Climate change impacts/risks identified through this project need to be taken into account when planning future development, provision of infrastructure and services. Community Strategic Plans, which guide future Council operations and investment decisions, and annual Operational Plans are appropriate planning processes to consider climate change impacts.

Appendix C contains an extract from the Local Government Association of Queensland Incorporated (2007), Adapting to Climate Change, A Queensland Local Government Guide. For further information about proposed changes to the Community Strategic Plan and Resourcing Strategy see the NSW Government (2009) Department of Local Government’s Planning and Reporting Guidelines for Local Government in NSW, Draft for Public Feedback.

Short term/ Ongoing

NESAC/Councils

Advocate to the NSW Department of Planning to consider climate change impacts when developing new and revised planning instruments, guidelines and practice notes.

Planning at a local and regional level is influenced by State planning policy and standard planning instruments, guidelines and practice notes. Many of these policies and guidelines need to be reviewed to assist regional planning to respond to climate change impacts.

Short term NESAC/Councils NSW Department of Planning

Prepare master plans/development plans, which take into account projected climate change, to guide long term use and development of areas:

Projected to experience significant future population growth.

Projected to be significantly impacted by climate change (i.e. flood prone areas).

With the potential to create significant environmental impacts under a climate changed future.

Master plans/development plans may be required to guide future use and development in specific areas which are either particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change (i.e. flood prone) or are identified for substantial future growth and development. In other cases the location of uses such as industries may cause significant environmental impacts on flood prone areas.

Short term NESAC/Councils NSW Department of Planning

Review land use policy and provisions of LEP and DCP as new climate change data becomes available.

LEP and DCP manage the location and type of land use and development across the region. Policies and provisions could be used to identify areas where certain uses are encouraged and areas where other uses are prohibited (including due to water shortage or other impacts associated with climate change).

Medium term NESAC/Councils NSW Department of Planning

Develop strategic alliances with other cities/ research and other institutions with a strong commitment to climate change adaptation.

Information sharing with institutions such as the University of New England and CSIRO will assist in ensuring up to date information to assist in responding to climate change. In addition, developing relationships with other municipalities within NSW or Australia will assist in sharing experiences about the effectiveness of climate change adaptation actions.

Medium term NESAC/Councils International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives (ICLEI) University of New England Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)

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Climate Change Risk/Impact

Risk Classification Actions Reason for Action Priority Lead Agency Other Contributors

General

- Consult local businesses, organisations and the community to understand level of awareness of climate change impacts and identify actions to assist them to adapt to climate change.

A series of climate change adaptation actions aim to increase community awareness of climate change impacts and identify actions to adapt to climate change. These actions could be coordinated into a single climate change adaptation education program.

Medium term NESAC/Councils Australian Government Department of Climate Change

Develop a forum for ongoing community involvement in climate change adaptation.

A forum, building on the New England Climate Change Consensus Project, could be established to assist in engaging the community to adapt to climate change and monitor the effectiveness of this Action Plan from a community perspective.

Medium term NESAC/Councils

Prepare an education and communications plan for climate change risk and adaptation actions.

An education and communications plan would assist in coordinating delivery of climate change and risk adaptation actions. The Plan could focus on educating the community and Council Officers and Councillors and in communicating the outcomes of the Action Plan and its implementation over time.

Medium term NESAC/Councils

Continue to support the Sustainable Living Expo as a vehicle to raise awareness and stimulate action regarding climate change.

The New England Sustainable Living Expo is an important forum to increase community awareness about climate change risks and the need to plan for climate change adaptation. Ongoing support of this expo will assist delivery of climate change education programs.

Medium term NESAC/Councils

Review State of Environment Reporting to include reporting on climate change impacts and adaptation actions.

The last regional State of Environment Report, which comprises a general environmental report card for the region, was prepared in November 2004. When updated this report should report on climate change impacts/risks as key issues.

Medium term/ Ongoing

NESAC/Councils

Consider climate change adaptation as part of each Council’s Business Continuity Plans.

Business Continuity Plans plan to ensure long-term survivability and reinstatement of services following a disruptive event such as severe climatic events. These plans are currently being reviewed and could take into account risks associated with climate change.

Short term NESAC/Councils

Report on the implementation of this Action Plan through each Councils Annual Report.

Each Council’s Annual Report provides a forum to report on progress towards implementing this Action Plan.

Short term/ Ongoing

NESAC/Councils

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Table 4 Climate Change Risk Table – Planning and Environment

Climate Change Risk/Impact

Risk Classification Actions Reason for Action Priority Lead Agency Other Contributors

Increased flooding in low lying developed areas and extension of flood range

High Risk

Advocate to the NSW Department of Environment, Climate Change and Water or other relevant agencies for:

Review of current flood studies (prepared by former Department of Water Resources)

Funding for regional flood modelling

Funding for Preparation of Floodplain Risk Management Plans for all Councils (except Walcha).

Funding for Floodplain Risk Management Projects. Increased stormwater levies for new development. Review of Rural Floodplain Management Plans.

Councils have a lead responsibility for managing flood prone areas. The NSW Department of Environment, Climate Change and Water are responsible for providing advice on modelling, policy, planning and environmental considerations and community education. The NSW Department of Environment, Climate Change and Water have provided substantial funding across NSW for flood investigations and flood protection works. Funding for a Flood Risk Management Plan has been allocated to Walcha Council. Some funding for floodplain risk management projects has been allocated to the Armidale Dumaresq Council. The existing flood study and flood modelling needs to be updated and used to assist preparation of Floodplain Risk Management Plans.

Short term NESAC/Councils NSW Department of Environment, Climate Change and Water

Review floodplain studies and modelling to identify flood risks to assist in planning for projected climate change.

Flood modelling data needs to be updated on a regular basis to support planning within flood affected areas, to advise the community about flood risks, to inform future investment in public and private infrastructure and to assist land use planning and decision making. Walcha Council prepared a flood study for the Walcha township in 2005. Armidale Dumaresq Council has prepared a Floodplain Management Study and Plan, and Armidale Flood Mitigation Study. Dam break studies have also been prepared for Dumaresq Dam and Malpas Dam, with a consequent risk assessment.

Short term NESAC/Councils NSW Department of Environment. Climate Change and Water

Prepare Floodplain Risk Management Plans and review floodplain management policies to plan for projected climate change and identify measures to mitigate impacts of flooding in high risk areas.

Walcha Council is currently preparing a Floodplain Risk Management Plan to determine the level of flood protection of the Walcha levees, the flood risks to people and property if the levees were overtopped, and possible ways of reducing these risks. The study will form the basis of investigations and advice, to residents and businesses of Walcha, the Council, SES and other relevant personnel, regarding the awareness, response and minimisation of the risks associated with flooding. Armidale Dumaresq Council prepared the Draft Armidale Interim Flood Plan and has also purchased flood prone land to prevent more intensive development of this land. Guyra and Uralla Councils do not have any specific floodplain management plans. Floodplain Risk Management Plans and floodplain management policies could also guide implementation of high priority actions in Catchment Action Plans for riparian management and be integrated with urban drainage planning.

Medium term NESAC/Councils NSW Department of Environment, Climate Change and Water SES

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Climate Change Risk/Impact

Risk Classification Actions Reason for Action Priority Lead Agency Other Contributors

Increased flooding in low lying developed areas and extension of flood range

High Risk Update Local Environmental Plan and Development Control Plan provisions for developing on flood prone land consistent with the NSW Government’s Flood Prone Land Policy and the principles of the Floodplain Development Manual, 2005.

LEP(s) and DCPs will be updated as new information on the projected impact of climate change on flood levels becomes available. Reviewed LEP and DCP policies should be consistent with the NSW Government’s Flood Prone Land Policy, the principles of the Floodplain Development Manual, 2005 and Ministerial Direction No. 15 – Flood Prone Land. These guidelines and policies aim to reduce the impact of flooding on individual owners and occupiers of flood prone property and to reduce private and public losses resulting from floods.

Medium term NESAC/Councils NSW Department of Environment, Climate Change and Water NSW Department of Planning

Provide on-going advice to community and raise community awareness about flood risks and preventative practices through:

Council websites.

Sustainble Living Expo. New residents pack. Landcare initiatives. Development application process including pre application.

consultation and assessment of applications.

Flood risk advisory services are important to provide information to the community about flood risks and flood mitigation measures including clearing gutters and drains and minimising hard surfaces. This is particularly important as part of the development assessment application process to ensure applicants are aware of flood risk and integrate flood mitigation measures into building design.

Medium term NESAC/Councils NSW Department of Environment, Climate Change and Water Landcare

Prepare or review Urban Stormwater Management Plans to plan for increased volume of stormwater projected due to climate change.

Guyra and Armidale Dumaresq Councils have prepared an Urban Stormwater Management Plan to plan for upgrades in urban stormwater infrastructure while other Councils’ do not currently have a strategy. Urban Stormwater Management Plans could outline mechanisms including staged upgrades to urban stormwater management system and encouraging on site water re-use and harvesting systems which act as mitigation works to cater for increased volumes of stormwater projected due to climate change.

Medium term NESAC/Councils NSW Department of Environment, Climate Change and Water Catchment Management Authorities

Implement Urban Stormwater Management Plan to upgrade critical stormwater infrastructure to provide for increased volumes of stormwater projected due to climate change

Implementing Urban Stormwater Management Plans requires a staged approach over time focussing on the most critical stormwater infrastructure required.

Longer term NESAC/Councils Catchment Management Authorities

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Climate Change Risk/Impact

Risk Classification Actions Reason for Action Priority Lead Agency Other Contributors

Increased bush fire risk to settlements and infrastructure

High Risk

Advocate to the NSW Department of Environment, Climate Change and Water, NSW Rural Fire Service and NSW Department of Planning to:

Review State planning bush fire controls.

Review allocation of resources from fire insurance levies.

Obtain funding for bush fire mapping and to strengthen LEPs and DCPs in response to bush fire risks.

Increase funding for Local Bush Fire Management Committees.

Improve bush fire research and risk management in National Parks and State Forests.

Obtain funding for community education and communication programs for bush fire risk.

Local planning controls are developed in accordance with State planning bushfire controls which require regular review and update particularly in response to relevant recommendations from the Victorian Royal Commission On Black Saturday fires. Funding could also be sought for strengthen local planning provisions and to develop and deliver of increased community education and communication programs regarding climate change risks. Further advocacy should be undertaken to improve bushfire risk management and regularly review fire management strategies for National Parks and State Forests to ensure that bushfire risks are minimised. Local bush fire management committees established under the NSW Rural Fires Act coordinate fire management planning, prevention and suppression in local areas.

Short term NESAC/Councils NSW Rural Fire Service SES

Advocate to the NSW Rural Fire Service to: Review bushfire prone land mapping taking into account long term

projected climate change.

Continue to review the Planning for Bushfire Protection Guide at least every two years.

Up to date, accurate bushfire risk modelling and mapping is required to identify bushfire risks and to inform local planning controls which identify and manage development in bushfire prone areas. NSW Rural Fire Service has a statutory obligation to protect life, property and the natural environment through fire suppression and fire prevention. The NSW Rural Fire Services Commissioner provides information to Councils to prepare maps identifying bush fire prone land, which is used to inform planning provisions. Planning for Bushfire Protection, A Guide for Councils, Planners, Fire Authorities and Developers, NSW Rural Fire Services 2006, contains guidelines for suitable defendable space, access considerations, vegetation management, on site emergency management arrangements, water supply provisions, site assessment for building construction requirements and planning framework for developments in rural and urban areas close to land likely to be affected by bush fire. These Guidelines are intended to be reviewed and updated as new research becomes available or at least every two years.

Short term NESAC/Councils NSW Rural Fire Service

Review bushfire management provisions in LEPs and DCPs taking into account:

Long term climate change projections.

Any changes to State planning bush fire management provisions and Planning for Bushfire Protection Guide.

Relevant recommendations from the Victorian Royal Commission On Black Saturday Fires and Canberra Bushfires Enquiries.

All Councils’ have recently upgraded bushfire mapping. However, local bushfire risk management provisions contained in LEPs and DCPs need to be reviewed regularly to respond to new data and modelling which identifies bushfire risk or risk management planning provisions and to any changes in State planning bushfire management provisions.

Medium term NESAC/Councils NSW Department of Planning

Work in partnership with the NSW Rural Fire Service and other relevant stakeholders to develop community education programs regarding increased fire risk and fire management in response to climate change.

A community education program could inform the community regarding risks associated with bushfire and bushfire management and inform future private investment and development in bushfire prone areas.

Medium term NESAC/Councils NSW Rural Fire Service

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Climate Change Risk/Impact

Risk Classification Actions Reason for Action Priority Lead Agency Other Contributors

Increased bush fire risk to settlements and infrastructure

High Risk

Work in partnership with the NSW Department of Environment, Climate Change and Water, the NSW Rural Fire Service and the Peel District Emergency Management Committee and the SES to build Councils’ capacity for planning and responding to bush fire.

Additional information sharing and working in collaboration is required to building councils’ capacity to plan for and respond to bush fire risks.

Medium term NESAC/Councils NSW Department of Environment , Climate Change and Water NSW Rural Fire Service Peel District Emergency Management Committee Emergency Management NSW SES

Work in collaboration with the Peel District Emergency Management Committee to review and implement the Peel District Disaster Plan every five years to ensure that it responds to increased risks associated with bush fire due to projected climate change.

Councils’ within the New England Region are located within the Peel Emergency Management District. The Peel District Disaster Plan (Displan) needs to be regularly reviewed and updated to ensure that it responds to increased fire risks associated with bush fire.

Short term NESAC/Councils Peel District Emergency Management Committee Emergency Management NSW SES

Change in water table impacting on quality and security of water supply

Extreme Risk

Advocate to the NSW Department of Environment, Climate Change and Water to:

Regularly monitor changes in the water table and its impact on quality and security of water supply.

Fully implement the NSW Salinity Strategy. Allocate increased resources to land management and education

programs focus on salinity.

Increased levels of salinity can impact rivers and aquifers and reduce long term quality and security of water supply. Full implementation of the NSW Salinity Strategy is required to take action to protect and manage native vegetation and ensure water is used efficiently and less water enters the groundwater table to reduce the impacts of salinity.

Short term NESAC/Councils NSW Department of Environment, Climate Change and Water

Advocate to the NSW Department of Planning to:

Prepare practice notes/guidelines in considering water table changes in land use planning decisions.

Further guidance regarding the impacts of changing water tables would assist Councils’ to plan for new use and development and to assess planning applications.

Medium term NESAC/Councils NSW Department of Planning

Review planning provisions in LEPs and DCPs regarding the impact of land uses on the water table and the quality and security of water supply.

Planning provisions require regular updates in response to revised information to ensure security of the water supply. In the future regional and local environmental plans will be required to be consistent with the strategic objectives, targets and actions outlined in Catchment Management Plans.

Longer term NESAC/Councils Catchment Management Authorities

Contribute to the development of Catchment Management Plans by Catchment Management Authorities to guide salinity management actions.

Catchment Management Plans are intended to guide salinity management actions on a regional basis.

Medium term NESAC/Councils Catchment Management Authorities

Reduction in surface water available for agricultural use

High Risk

Advocate to NSW Department of Environment, Climate Change and Water to:

Increase the frequency of monitoring surface water supplies.

Provide regular updates about monitoring surface water supply to Council and the community.

Consider reduced availability of surface water resulting from a

Additional monitoring of surface water supplies to advice uses of water for agricultural purposes is required to enable landowners to plan for future climate change. Monitoring changes in availability of water resources would enable forward planning to change farming practices. Controls regarding water usage need to be reviewed over time to respond to any changes in the availability of water for agricultural and

Short term NESAC/Councils NSW Department of Environment, Climate Change and Water

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Climate Change Risk/Impact

Risk Classification Actions Reason for Action Priority Lead Agency Other Contributors

climate changed future in preparing/revising water sharing plans.

Strengthen controls regarding water usage. other uses.

Increased weed and pest infestation

Extreme Risk

Advocate to NSW Industry and Investment for: Ongoing funding and support for NE Weeds Authority (NEWA) to

ensure full implementation of the NEWA Weeds Program as part of delivery of NSW Invasive Species Plan.

Development of best practice guidelines for roadside weed control programs.

Funding for weed management on Council land targeting roadside weeds.

NSW Industry and Investment has prepared the NSW Invasive Species Plan and the Weeds Strategy to manage priority weeds and pests in key locations in NSW. NSW Industry and Investment are able to allocate grants for noxious weeds control and inspection programs on roadsides and on council lands to local Councils and other weed control authorities to help tackle weed issues. NEWA manages the NESAC Councils’ weed management functions under the Noxious Weeds Act 1993 with a key aim being to reduce the impact of weeds and other pests resulting in more profitable agricultural production and lower costs of control for land managers. It receives funding from NSW Industry and Investment and NESAC Councils. Weed Officers provide assistance regarding; weed identification and advice; weed management programs; educational material and weed identification and local area knowledge.

Medium term NESAC/Councils NEWA NSW Industry and Investment

Advocate to NSW Industry and Investment and Livestock Health and Pest Authorities for:

For full implementation of NSW Invasive Species Plan and feral animal control programs.

Update pest animal survey 2004-2006 and the New England District Rural Lands Protection Boards Maps.

Development of regional management plans for plant and animal pest species.

Additional resources for advice to assist the community in eradicating declared pests and for delivery of education programs

There is an increased risk of plant and animal pests under a climate change future and surveys have shown that while drought in neighbouring regions was thought to have caused significant reductions in the extent and associated impacts of many pest species, broad-scale reductions in animal populations were not apparent and some species even marginally increased their range. Full implementation of the NSW Invasive Species Plan and feral animal control programs are required to manage pests and the pest animal survey will ensure that pest populations are monitored. The Livestock Health and Pest Authorities (formerly Rural Lands Protection Boards), play a key role in pest management in safeguarding agricultural production from the biosecurity risks posed by disease and pests and managing stock movement and in providing identification and assistance with drought relief. Livestock Health and Pest Authorities (formerly RLPBs) help landholders by providing advice and assistance in eradicating declared pest species. We also work with private and government stakeholders to develop vertebrate pest management plans and cooperative management programs.

Short term NESAC/Councils Catchment Management Authorities Landcare NEWA

Prepare/review and implement pest management plans to manage pest species on Council administered land.

Under the Rural Lands Protection Act 1998 all land managers in NSW, whether on public or private land, have an obligation to control declared pest species on their land.

Medium term NESAC/Councils NSW Industry and Investment Landcare NEWA Livestock Health and Pest Authorities

Build capacity of Council land managers to recognise and manage pests on Council administered land to respond to increased occurrence of pests associated with climate change.

Additional training of Council Officers is required to ensure recognition of plant pest species and pest management techniques.

Longer term NESAC/Councils NSW Industry and Investment Landcare NEWA

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Climate Change Risk/Impact

Risk Classification Actions Reason for Action Priority Lead Agency Other Contributors

Increased weed and pest infestation

Extreme Risk

Finalise Draft Regional Weed Strategy to ensure it takes into account increased risk and impact of weeds arising from climate change.

The Northern Inland Weeds Advisory Committee which includes the NEWA has prepared a draft NIWAC Regional Weed Strategy to manage noxious weeds. This Strategy could be modified to consider the increased risk and impact of weeds projected to occur as a result of climate change.

Medium term NEWA NESAC Landcare Catchment Management Authorities

Build organisational capacity of NEWA to: Deliver weed education programs and provide ongoing weed

identification and management advice.

Strengthen information sharing and relationships with landowners, the Northern Rivers Catchment Management Authority, Landcare and Councils to manage weeds within the region.

Weeds Officers currently service the region and additional officers may be needed over time to respond to increased demand for weed advisory services within the region. NEWA has a key role in sharing information and developing effective relationships to assist land owners and Council to manage weeds.

Longer term NEWA NESAC Landcare Catchment Management Authorities

Develop an education program for weed identification and management targeting residents, farmers and the nursery and garden industry.

An education program targeted to the New England region could build on delivering existing initiatives including:

The ‘NSW – No Space 4 Weeds’ state-wide weed awareness program.

‘Weedbusters’- an awareness program that works with the community to achieve sustainable land and water management, primarily through increased public involvement in weed management, education and awareness projects.

‘Grow Me Instead Project’ first initiated by the Nursery and Garden Industry of NSW & ACT (‘NGINA’) as a voluntary partnership with its member nurseries to encourage the removal from production and sale of plants known to be invasive in the natural environment.

These programs could identify target audiences including school age children, new residents, farmers and identify forums such as the Sustainable Living Exp and the New Residents Guide as methods to educate the community regarding weed identification and management.

Medium term NEWA NESAC Landcare

Reduced health of waterways due to sedimentation and eutrophication

Extreme Risk

Prepare/review and implement Council stormwater management plans to reduce the impacts of sediment and diffuse sources of water pollution entering waterways under a climate changed future.

Stormwater management plans typically contain a range of strategies and actions to improve stormwater quality and may also consider methods to reduce and re-use the overall volume of stormwater (i.e. promoting water harvesting).

Short term NESAC/Councils Catchment Management Authorities NSW Department of Environment, Climate Change and Water

Advocate to the Catchment Management Authorities to review Catchment Action Plan objectives, strategies and policies to:

Reduce sediment entering catchment.

Reduce impacts of nutrients entering systems.

Catchment Management Action Plans contain a series of strategies and actions to manage use and development within catchments.

Medium term NESAC/Councils Catchment Management Authorities

Work in collaboration with the Catchment Management Authorities and Landcare to develop and implement an education program for land owners regarding the health of waterways.

Initiatives could include adding information about maintaining the health of waterways and about general land care in new resident’s kits. Councils could also play a role in building on existing land management programs available through Landcare agencies and the CMA.

Longer term NESAC/Councils Catchment Management Authorities

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Climate Change Risk/Impact

Risk Classification Actions Reason for Action Priority Lead Agency Other Contributors

Reduced health of waterways due to sedimentation and eutrophication

Extreme Risk

Advocate to the NSW Department of Environment, Climate Change and Water and NSW Department of Planning for:

Improved, regularly accessible data on vegetation and biodiversity. Inclusion of riparian buffer zones in standard planning instruments. Increased funding for the Northern Rivers CMA.

There is a lack of comprehensive, publicly available data on vegetation and biodiversity and more widespread availability of this data would assist Councils and the community in responding to climate change risks. Additional planning provisions are required in standard planning instruments to manage riparian buffer zones and minimise impacts of flooding arising from climate change. All CMA’s have experienced funding cuts and require additional funding to continue to plan for and respond to climate change risks.

Medium term NESAC/Councils NSW Department of Environment, Climate Change and Water NSW Department of Planning Landcare Catchment Management Authorities NSW Industry and Investment

Implement State planning controls for riparian buffers in LEP and DCPs.

Once strengthened, local Councils should implement State planning controls for riparian buffers in LEPs and DCPs to minimise impacts of flooding arising from climate change.

Longer term NESAC/Councils NSW Department of Environment, Climate Change and Water Catchment Management Authorities NSW Industry and Investment

Change in species composition of local urban environments

Extreme Risk

Review local street tree planting policy to ensure new and replacement tree species selection responds to projected climate change.

Street trees make a significant contribution towards the amenity of towns and it is important that species selection responds to impacts of climate change. This will ensure that trees survive over the longer term and are appropriate to the location in terms of minimising overall water use. Street tree species selected should be either indigenous or low water use species.

Short term/Ongoing

NESAC/Councils

Provide information to the community about tree and plant species suitable for a climate changed future.

Information could be provided to the community to encourage planting of tree and plant species suitable for a climate changed future.

Medium term NESAC/ Councils

Loss of aquatic ecosystem services/values

High Risk Work collaboratively with the Catchment Management Authorities to monitor role of effluent disposal and diffuse sources of water pollution in affecting aquatic ecosystems.

Land based effluent treatment systems have the potential to affect aquatic ecosystems by leaching or discharging into aquatic ecosystems. This will involve on-going monitoring of waterways to detect volumes and sources of discharge and ensuring compliance with the Guidelines for Best Practice Management of Water Supply and Sewerage.

Medium term NESAC/Councils Catchment Management Authorities NSW Industry and Investment

Support and publicise intiiatives to improve health of waterways and aquatic ecosystem services.

Increased community education is considered to be a fundamental method to improve health of waterways and aquatic ecosystem services.

Medium term NESAC/Councils Landcare Catchment Management Authorities NSW Industry and Investment

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Climate Change Risk/Impact

Risk Classification Actions Reason for Action Priority Lead Agency Other Contributors

Loss of biodiversity

Extreme risk

Advocate to the NSW Department of Environment, Climate Change and Water and NSW Industry and Investment to:

Review the NSW Biodiversity Strategy taking into account projected climate change impacts on biodiversity.

Prepare regional/ localised studies which assess the impacts of climate change on biodiversity and identify ‘biodiversity hotspots” which require further intensive management in a climate changed future.

Increase statutory controls to prevent biodiversity loss.

The NSW Biodiversity Strategy requires regular updates to ensure that it takes into account the impacts of climate change on biodiversity. Consideration should also been given to identifying the regional impacts of climate change and appropriate actions to minimise loss of biodiversity. Increased statutory controls are required to prevent biodiversity loss as existing controls are not considered to be sufficient to respond to this extreme risk.

Medium term NESAC/Councils NSW Department of Environment , Climate Chanage and Water Catchment Management Authorities University of New England NSW Industry and Investment

Review/develop planning policy and provisions in LEPs and DCPs for species migration corridors.

Species migration corridors require identification and protecting through local planning provisions.

Medium term NESAC/Councils Department of Environment, Climate Change and Water NSW Industry and Investment

Apply for grants from the Environmental Trust to build capacity for Council staff and deliver community education programs regarding biodiversity loss.

The Environmental Trust has a specific role to encourage and support restoration and rehabilitation projects and promote environmental education. The Education and Research (major and minor categories) grants offer grants for education programs which could be accessed to build capacity regarding biodiversity management on Council land and delivery of education programs to the community.

Short term NESAC Councils

Environmental Trust Landcare Catchment Management Authorities

Reduction in non-reticulated water supply for rural/domestic use

High risk Advocate to the Australian Building Codes Board (ABCB) to review minimum requirements for water tank sizes to ensure adequate potable water supply taking into account projected climate change.

An adequate potable water supply, including adequate water storage, is required in non-reticulated areas.

Short term NESAC/Councils Australian Building Codes Board NSW Department of Environment, Climate Change and Water NSW Rural Fire Service

Increased agricultural production pressure with negative environmental impacts

Extreme risk

Advocate to the NSW Industry and Investment to: Allocate increased resources to developing and implementing a

community education program to raise awareness about improving efficiency of water use and utilising sustainable farming practices.

Encourage winter feed production. Develop an incentive program to encourage organic and

biodynamic agricultural production.

Increased resources are required to raise community awareness about improving efficiency of water use and utilising sustainable farming practices including holistic management of rural properties, developing and implementing farm management plans using sustainable farming practices. NSW Industry and Investment are currently running sessions regarding long term viability planning, technical skills, diversifying into new crops and temporary water trading and leasing the farm and subdividing the property.

Short term NESAC/Councils NSW Industry and Investment Landcare

Advocate to the Soil Conservation Service to:

Review land use capability mapping.

Accurate, up to date land use capability mapping is required to identify the productive potential of agricultural land and to identify areas which should remain in agricultural production rather than be used for urban development.

Short term NESAC/Councils Soil Conservation Service NSW Industry and Investment

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Climate Change Risk/Impact

Risk Classification Actions Reason for Action Priority Lead Agency Other Contributors

Increased agricultural production pressure with negative environmental impacts

Extreme risk Review land use policy and provisions of LEP and DCP in response to revised land capability mapping to ensure that the most productive land remains available for agricultural use.

Local planning provisions and controls should be updated when land capability mapping is available to ensure that the most productive land remains available for agricultural use and potential land use impacts are managed.

Medium term NESAC/Councils NSW Department of Planning NSW Industry and Investment

Support and publicise initiatives for sustainable land management. Council Officers may be able to provide an informal referral services to landowners to other agencies regarding sustainable land management practices.

Medium term NESAC/Councils Landcare NEWA Catchment Management Authorities

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Table 5 Climate Change Risk Table – Corporate (including Health, Corporate Planning, Economic Development, Emergency Management)

Climate Change Risk/Impact Risk Classification

Action Reason for Action Priority Lead Agency Other Contributors

Climate driven economic crisis Failure to identify and take advantage of emerging markets.

High risk Develop and implement a regional economic development strategy which includes strategies to:

Diversify the regional economic base. Diversify agricultural activities including uses/crops which are less

water intensive. Help local businesses maintain their competitiveness in a climate

changed world.

A regional economic development strategy would provide an opportunity for strategic consideration of the impact of projected climate change on key land uses which underpin the region’s economy. It would also provide a forum to develop strategies to diversify the region’s economic base to ensure that the region’s economy would not be able to be sustained in a climate change future.

Short term NESAC/Councils NSW Industry and Investment Northern Inland Regional Development Board – Area Consultative Committee

Review each Councils investment policy to ensure diversified investments and reduce reliance on investments sensitive to the impacts of climate change.

Council investments which are sensitive to the impacts of climate change should be reviewed to ensure prudent financial management.

Medium term NESAC/Councils

Increased heat stress with potential for increased mortality

High risk Prepare/review and implement Public Health Plan/s which includes an extreme heat strategy which includes:

Identification of refuge centres for extreme heat events.

Development of a ‘buddy system’ to monitor the elderly and other vulnerable groups.

Preventing sport on Council administered parks in high temperatures.

A community education/awareness program which raises awareness about the impacts of extreme heat projected due to climate change.

Councils should develop/review Public Health Plan/s to outline action to prevent or minimise public health dangers, as well as to enable people living in the municipality to achieve maximum health and wellbeing. While plans are not mandatory in NSW they could include an extreme heat strategy which would respond to risks associated with climate change. The strategy could include consideration of temporary safe places for people without adequate cooling or water to shelter during extreme heat events and to methods to monitor those groups most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The strategy could also include a community education/awareness program which raises awareness about the impacts of extreme heat.

Short term NESAC/Councils

NSW Department of Health

Prepare/review and implement master plans for open space and recreational areas to ensure:

Adequate shade is provided in public areas including playgrounds and public swimming pools.

Water fountains are available at regular intervals.

Master plans provide long term guidance for use and development of public parks and open space. Master plans should be prepared/reviewed to ensure that adequate shade and water is provided in public areas in response to climate change impacts.

Medium term NESAC/Councils

Increased injury and death - storms/hail

High risk

Advocate to the Australian Building Codes Board for higher building standards in the Building Code of Australia regarding wind loading and storm intensity and regular review of the eight climate zones which relate to building standards.

The Building Code of Australia (BCA) contains performance requirements and also the building solutions (prescribed building standards) which apply to building construction in high wind areas. The BCA contains State and Territory variations to address the various climatic conditions found throughout Australia. These building standards enable construction to respond to impacts associated with climate change and are continually updated and modified to reflect changing environmental conditions, community expectation and changes in building technology. A Council of Australian Government (COAG) report on protection from natural disasters made recommendations that priority be given to reviewing the BCA and standards in respect of mitigating the effects of natural hazards. This work is ongoing, in conjunction with several other organisations including Emergency Management Australia and Standards Australia.

Medium term NESAC/Councils Australian Building Codes Board SES

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Climate Change Risk/Impact Risk Classification

Action Reason for Action Priority Lead Agency Other Contributors

Increased injury and death - storms/hail

High risk Prepare/review and implement a Public Health Plan which includes a community awareness raising/ community education program regarding risks associated with storms and hail and preventative actions.

Public Health Plans, which sets the strategic direction for Councils to improve health and wellbeing outcomes for the people of the municipality, are not mandatory in NSW. Preparation of a health plan could include development of a community awareness raising/education program to inform the community about risks associated with storms and hail which are projected to increase due to climate change.

Short term NESAC/Councils

NSW Department of Health

Build capacity of existing health and community services to ensure they are able to cope with increased demand for services in extreme weather events including storms.

Increased occurrence of storms causing injury and death in a climate changed future will place increased demand on existing health and community services delivered by local and state government and other agencies. Work is required to build the capacity of health and community services to ensure that they are equipped to meet this increasing demand.

Medium term NESAC/Councils NSW Department of Health

Increased potential for water borne disease

High risk Obtain or prepare a GIS map of surface and arterial water supply and catchments within the New England region.

A GIS map of surface and arterial water supply would show the location and quantity of water resources and assist in protection of water supplies and catchments, particularly open catchments where stock graze.

Medium term NESAC/Councils NSW Department of Environment, Climate Change and Water Catchment Management Authorities

Develop/ implement a water security strategy and public health plan/s which include:

Review/ increased water monitoring program to detect and report algal blooms, water borne diseases and other potential contaminants.

Identification of methods to control diseases and disease vectors and improve alert systems for potential outbreaks.

Awareness/ education campaign including risks and impacts of water borne diseases and other potential contaminants.

Alternative water supply/emergency storage.

Enhance infectious disease and food safety programs.

Development and implementation of a water security strategy could assist in ensuring sufficient potable and agricultural water supply across the region and also to plan strategically to ensure reduction of risk of water borne diseases such as E. Coli, toxic algae, and viruses entering water supply catchments. Strategies to ensure safe water supplies would also be a fundamental issue within public health plans. The water security strategy could outline water monitoring regimes detect changes in nutrient levels to detect and prevent algal blooms and community awareness and education campaigns. It would also include alternative water supply sources and storage in the advent of contamination of the region’s principal water supply and storage.

Short term NESAC/Councils NSW Department of Environment, Climate Change and Water NSW Department of Health Catchment Management Authorities SES

Investigate and implement upgraded water treatment solutions. Some municipal water supplies within the region are currently treated using chemical or ozone treatment while other potable water supplies servicing small communities and individual properties remain untreated. In order to reduce the impacts of water borne diseases in the future, further consideration of water treatment solutions such as ozone treatment should be investigated.

Short term NESAC/Councils NSW Department of Environment, Climate Change and Water

Increased demand for mental health support

High risk

Advocate to the NSW Department of Community Services to review and increase capacity for mental health/ counselling services.

Impacts arising from climate change including increased heat and dryness and associated economic stress have the potential to impact on the health and wellbeing of residents and potential for loss of life. The type and capacity of mental health and counselling services offered may need to be reviewed over time in response to increased need for services due to the impacts of climate change.

Longer term NESAC/Councils NSW Department of Community Services

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Climate Change Risk/Impact Risk Classification

Action Reason for Action Priority Lead Agency Other Contributors

Increased demand for mental health support

High risk Develop, review and deliver programs which aim to improve community cohesion and reduce social isolation including:

Community welcoming activities such as the new residents' morning tea.

Further programs which aim to increase community cohesion and reduce social isolation will be required as preventative measures to address community well being in response to the impacts of climate change.

Medium term NESAC/Councils

Provide information to the community regarding available community health and well-being services.

Accessible information regarding community health and well-being services is important to respond to increased demand arising from residents due to the impacts of climate change. This could include reviewing community directories which provide information services and reviewing material contained within the new resident’s information packs. Increased coordination with the NSW Department of Community Services will also be required to ensure coordinated delivery of services and that hard to reach groups are accessed.

Short term NESAC/Councils NSW Department of Community Services NSW Department of Health

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Table 6 Climate Change Risk Table – Infrastructure

Climate Change Risk/Impact Risk Classification

Action Reason for Action Priority Lead Agency Other Contributors

Increased risk of dam failure Extreme risk Regular monitoring, surveillance and safety reviews of existing water supply dams within the New England region taking into account the projected long term impacts of climate change.

Dams within the region are regularly inspected to ensure their safety. The NSW Dam Safety Act 1978 requires all dam owners to arrange for regular monitoring and surveillance of their dams, regular review of the compliance of dams with current standards and preparation of dam safety emergency plans for dams where dam failure could cause loss of life. Dam Safety Surveillance typically obtains, collates and analyses data on the performance of a dam including structural adequacy and stability, leakage control, adequate flood capability, good operation, maintenance and emergency management practices, and regular surveillance and design reviews based on current standards. Safety Reviews may also be undertaken to identify remedial works, options for dam safety upgrading dams and to develop a remedial action program. Design reviews should also be carried out at regular intervals related to significant changes in technology and methodology (e.g. revised flood estimation procedures in Australian Rainfall and Runoff ). The Malpas Dam Safety Study assessed the safety of the dam based on a 1 in 100 000 yr flood and considered the dam was safe under this scenario. Inspections for other dams within the region should consider the impact of increased flood intensity scenarios.

Short term NESAC/Councils NSW Dams Safety Committee

Continue to implement recommendations of dam safety surveillance, safety reviews and design reviews for the region’s water supply dams.

The recommended works outlined in the Malpas Dam Safety Study including construction of a new spillway have been implemented. Other dams within the region are regularly inspected and any maintenance works are also undertaken to ensure safety of dams.

Short term NESAC/Councils NSW Dams Safety Committee

Prepare dam safety plans for all existing water supply dams within the New England region by 2012 and review these plans on a 5 yearly basis.

The NSW Dams Safety Committee is responsible for reviewing Dam Safety Plans and ensuring that dams comply with the Committee’s current requirements and conform to current accepted national and international practices. These requirements are generally in line with the Australian National Committee on Large Dams (ANCOLD) publication “Guidelines on Dam Safety Management” updated in August 2003. A Dam Safety Plan currently exists for Malpas Dam. Safety Plans should also be prepared for other dams to address the projected long term impacts of climate change.

Short term NESAC/Councils NSW Dams Safety Committee

Advocate to the NSW Dam Safety Committee to consider the long term impacts of climate change when reviewing the “Guidelines on Dam Safety Management” and dam safety emergency plans.

Considering the long term impacts of climate change including increased incidence of flooding, potential for increased ground movement is a key consideration when reviewing dam safety emergency management plans and guidelines on dam safety management.

Medium term NESAC/Councils NSW Department of Environment, Climate Change and Water SES

Advocacy to the NSW Department of Environment, Climate Change and Water for funding for dam surveillance and capital works to upgrade dams.

Additional funding is required to monitor and upgrade dams in response to increased safety standards and requirements to respond to increased design life requirements arising from climate change.

Medium term NESAC/Councils NSW Department of Environment, Climate Change and Water

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Climate Change Risk/Impact Risk Classification

Action Reason for Action Priority Lead Agency Other Contributors

Reduced water supply High risk Develop a regional water strategy which responds to a climate changed future and:

Identifies the need for additional and/or alternative water supply and storage sources.

Examines the feasibility of developing a water grid capable of transferring water across the New England region and water efficiency objectives and targets.

Identifies the appropriateness of infrastructure in response to projected climate change.

Identifies potential sources of water contamination and includes strategies to reduce contamination risks.

Consider the need for additional or larger volume water supply dams in the future as part of broader consideration of the region’s water supply needs.

Considers long-term water allocation strategies.

A regional water strategy could identify strategies to respond to projected climate change. The New England region is not currently experiencing a shortage of water. However, the availability of water supply may be reduced in the future as a result of climate change and the need for water conservation strategies and/or additional supply or storage capacity will need to be monitored. Careful consideration would need to be given to the impact of dams on the environment and longer term water allocation strategies during preparation of a regional water strategy.

Short term NESAC/Councils NSW Department of Environment, Climate Change and Water

Advocate to the NSW Department of Environment, Climate Change and Water to seek funding to implement the regional water strategy.

Increased funding is required to implement a regional water strategy in response to climate change risks.

Medium term Local Water Utility NESAC/Councils

NSW Department of Environment, Climate Change and Water

Develop/review a water efficiency and conservation program which identifies measures to improve efficiency of urban water use such as; water saving incentive programs; stormwater harvesting; community education; open space watering and showerhead exchange programs.

Best practice water conservation and demand management are essential for efficient management of a LWU water supply business and for efficient use of water resources. This should include a demand management program to monitor current and future demand, water saving measures and community education programs.

Short term Local Water Utility Councils NSW Department of Environment, Climate Change and Water

Increased cracking of water supply pipes

High risk

Prepare and review strategic business plans and asset management plan/s for the piped water supply network every five years. Plans should consider the projected long term impacts of climate change and include:

Proposed monitoring of pipe condition.

Proposed maintenance and replacement of the network including; replacing pipes with pipes made of more resilient materials (appropriate to area) and improved construction techniques with improved bedding and backfill materials.

Local Water Utilities prepare a strategic business plan which is the principal planning tool for its water supply and sewerage businesses. This plan typically includes asset management plan which comprises operation and maintenance plans and capital works plans. Asset management plans are typically prepared to outline the existing condition of infrastructure assets including water pipes and stormwater drains and recommend maintenance and asset renewal. These plans could be prepared and reviewed to take into account the impacts of climate change and to consider construction techniques or materials in response to climate change impacts.

Short term Local Water Utility NSW Department of Environment, Climate Change and Water

Seek additional funding for implementation of asset management plans for capital and recurrent expenditure for the water supply network through:

Each Council’s Community Strategic Plan.

Each Council’s Operational Management Plan.

Advocacy to the Department of Environment, Climate Change and Water for increased funding for asset management, monitoring, maintenance and replacement of the piped water supply network.

Funding for capital and operational expenditure for water supply infrastructure is typically sought through Council’s annual Operational Management Plan. In addition, the Community Strategic Plan could also outline the staging of capital expenditure required to upgrade infrastructure. Additional funding may be required to respond to climate change impacts and could be sought from the Department of Environment, Climate Change and Water.

Medium term NESAC/Councils NSW Department of Environment, Climate Change and Water

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Climate Change Risk/Impact Risk Classification

Action Reason for Action Priority Lead Agency Other Contributors

Increased cracking of water supply pipes

High risk

Implement asset management plans for the water supply network. Asset management plans typically outline maintenance and capital works required to upgrade water infrastructure over time. Implementation of these plans is a key component of planning for climate change.

Medium term NESAC/Councils NSW Department of Environment, Climate Change and Water

Increased stormwater infiltration into sewerage system

High risk Prepare and review strategic business plans and asset management plan/s for the sewerage network every five years. Plans should consider the projected long term impacts of climate change and include:

Proposed monitoring of stormwater infiltration and pipe condition.

Proposed maintenance and replacement of the network including replacing pipes with pipes made of more resilient materials (appropriate to area) and improved construction techniques with improved bedding and backfill materials.

Local water utilities prepare a strategic business plan which is the principal planning tool for its water supply and sewerage businesses. This plan typically includes asset management plan which comprises operation and maintenance plans and capital works plans. Asset management plans are typically prepared to outline the existing condition of infrastructure assets including water pipes and stormwater drains and recommend maintenance and asset renewal. These plans could be prepared and reviewed to take into account the impacts of climate change and to consider construction techniques or materials in response to climate change impacts.

Short term Local Water Utility NSW Department of Environment, Climate Change and Water

Seek additional funding for implementation of asset management plans for capital and recurrent expenditure for the sewerage network through:

Each Council’s Community Strategic Plan.

Each Council’s Operational Management Plan.

Advocacy to the NSW Department of Environment, Climate Change and Water for increased funding for asset management, monitoring, maintenance and replacement of the sewerage system works.

Funding for capital and operational expenditure for water supply infrastructure is typically sought through Council’s annual Operational Management Plan. In addition, the Community Strategic Plan could also outline the staging of capital expenditure required to upgrade infrastructure. Additional funding may be required to respond to climate change impacts and could be sought from the NSW Department of Environment, Climate Change and Water.

Medium term NESAC/Councils NSW Department of Environment, Climate Change and Water

Implement asset management plans for the sewerage network. Asset management plans typically outline maintenance and capital works required to upgrade water infrastructure over time. Implementation of these plans is a key component of planning for climate change.

Medium term NESAC/Councils NSW Department of Environment, Climate Change and Water

Update infrastructure design standards for stormwater. Council infrastructure design standards require regular updating in response to climate change to ensure that materials and designs respond to climate change risks.These standards should also take into account any new data arising from any updates to rainfall and runoff data/ studies.

Short term NESAC/Councils

Monitor system performance of reticulated sewerage infrastructure including:

Sewerage treatment plant/s.

Performance of sewerage infrastructure in preventing infiltration (including lid selection, seals in access chambers and lids).

Responding to complaints about illegal connections to the sewerage system.

Monitoring performance of reticulated sewerage infrastructure is fundamental to preventing increased stormwater infiltration into the sewerage system which could arise through climate change. Key elements of infrastructure which require specific monitoring include sewerage treatment plants and performance of infrastructure. Responding to complaints will also assist in monitoring and remedying illegal connections to the sewerage system.

Medium term NESAC/Councils NSW Department of Environment, Climate Change and Water

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Climate Change Risk/Impact Risk Classification

Action Reason for Action Priority Lead Agency Other Contributors

Inadequate stormwater infrastructure capacity resulting in larger floods

High risk

Prepare and review asset management plan/s for the stormwater network and stormwater management plan/s every five years. Plans should consider the projected long term impacts of climate change and include:

Proposed monitoring of pipe condition.

Staged extensions to the pipe stormwater network, duplication of stormwater system and targeting high risk areas.

Proposed maintenance and replacement of the network including replacing pipes with pipes made of more resilient materials (appropriate to area) and improved construction techniques with improved bedding and backfill materials.

Options for increased stormwater harvesting for use as recycled water.

Diffuse source water pollution management principles.

Asset management plans are typically prepared to outline the existing condition of infrastructure assets including water pipes and stormwater drains and recommend maintenance and asset renewal. These plans could be prepared and reviewed to take into account the impacts of climate change and to consider construction techniques or materials in response to climate change impacts.

Short term NESAC/Councils NSW Department of Environment, Climate Change and Water

NSW Industry and Investment

Seek additional funding for preparation and implementation of asset management plans for capital and recurrent expenditure for the stormwater network through:

Each Council’s Community Strategic Plan.

Each Council’s Operational Management Plan.

Advocacy to the NSW Department of Environment, Climate Change and Water for increased funding for asset management, monitoring, maintenance and replacement and new stormwater drainage works.

Advocacy to Department of Environment, Climate Change and Water for increased drainage charge for property protection.

Funding for capital and operational expenditure for water supply infrastructure is typically sought through Council’s annual Operational Management Plan. In addition, the Community Strategic Plan could also outline the staging of capital expenditure required to upgrade infrastructure. Additional funding may be required to respond to climate change impacts and could be sought from the Department of Environment, Climate Change and Water.

Medium term NESAC/Councils NSW Department of Environment, Climate Change and Water

Implement asset management plans for the stormwater network and stormwater management plan.

Asset management plans typically outline maintenance and capital works required to upgrade water infrastructure over time. Implementation of these plans is a key component of planning for climate change.

Medium term NESAC/Councils NSW Department of Environment, Climate Change and Water

Prepare designs for new infrastructure which take into account changes in rainfall and runoff data/ studies.

Designs for new stormwater infrastructure should take into account climate change projections and the design standards should reflect the most recent rainfall and run off data/studies for the region.

Medium term NESAC/Councils NSW Department of Environment, Climate Change and Water

Increased damage to sealed and unsealed road surfaces Reduced structural stability of timber bridges with heightened chance of failure

High risk Extreme risk

Prepare and review road asset management plan/s every five years. Plans should consider the projected long term impacts of climate change and include:

Increased frequency of road surface and bridge condition inspections.

Increased scheduled maintenance of sealed and unsealed roads

Asset management plans are typically prepared to outline the existing condition of infrastructure assets including roads and bridges and recommend maintenance and asset renewal. These plans could be prepared and reviewed to take into account the impacts of climate change and to consider construction techniques or materials in response to climate change impacts. Asset management plans should specifically consider the frequency of road surface and bridge condition inspections with a view of

Short term NESAC/Councils Roads and Traffic Authority NSW SES

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Climate Change Risk/Impact Risk Classification

Action Reason for Action Priority Lead Agency Other Contributors

Increased damage to sealed and unsealed road surfaces Reduced structural stability of timber bridges with heightened chance of failure

Extreme risk

including provision for increased surface maintenance.

Increased scheduled bridge repair, strengthening and replacement including consideration of removing or relocating bridge placement and materials with those more suited to anticipated conditions.

Consideration of revised service and design standards for bridges including consideration of overtoppable bridges and removal of some bridges.

Emergency repairs to road surface and bridges.

inspections being at 1-3 year intervals. They should also consider road and bridge maintenance and repair frequency and procedures for emergency repairs. Consideration should be given to revised service and design standards for bridges including whether some bridges should be removed over time and the implications for residents if this should occur. Additional consideration should also be given to bridge design standards including overtoppable bridges that can withstand additional water projected to occur as a result of climate change.

Seek additional funding for implementation of works identified in asset management plans for capital and recurrent expenditure for local roads administered by Councils through:

Each Council’s Community Strategic Plan.

Each Council’s Operational Management Plan.

Funding applications to the Roads and Traffic Authority NSW (RTA).

Funding applications to Australian Government roading programs.

Local Councils have responsibility for funding, determining priorities and carrying out works on local roads provided for local circulation and access. Roads and Traffic Authority NSW has responsibility for funding state roads (including freeways, highways and important main roads) and also administers funding programs for: regional roads (routes serving an intermediate function between the main arterial road network and local roads). Funding is available for roadworks on regional roads through the Block Grant Agreement (general road program for regional roads), the REPAIR program (for larger rehabilitation and development projects including pavement rehabilitation, road widening, bridge repairs and replacement and initial sealing) and the Regional Roads Timber Bridge Partnership (replacement of timber bridges). RTA funding is also available for reimbursement to Councils of costs incurred by damage in declared natural disasters and roads managed by State Forests or the Department of Environment, Climate Change and Water. Australian funding is also available for roads as part of the Australian Financial Assistance Grants, Roads to Recovery and AusLink Strategic Regional Projects.

Medium term NESAC/Councils Roads and Traffic Authority NSW

Advocate to the RTA for increased funding and resources, including changes in methodology for funding allocation, for asset management planning, monitoring, capital works, road maintenance and repair to the regional and local road network and bridges.

Funding for roads requires places a significant drain on each Councils financial resources. Advocating for additional funding for roads in response and amendments to funding criteria, to the projected impacts of climate change will assist Councils’ to address this short fall.

Medium term NESAC/Councils Roads and Traffic Authority NSW

Prepare designs for new road infrastructure which:

Takes into account changes in rainfall and runoff data/ studies.

Consider the most appropriate designs, materials and construction methods for road and bridge construction and maintenance including road drainage and bridge strengthening.

New roads and bridges design will require consideration of current rainfall and run off data/studies and consideration of the design life of road assets. Further consideration will be required of the most appropriate designs, materials and construction methods to ensure these assets withstand the impacts of climate change.

Short term NESAC/Councils Roads and Traffic Authority NSW

Update road design standards. Council road infrastructure design standards require regular updating in response to climate change to ensure that materials and designs respond to climate change risks.

Short term NESAC/Councils

Increased expenditure on upgrades to insulation/ cooling systems and building storm water systems Noise impacts from increase

High risk

Prepare and review whole of life asset management plan/s every five years for all Council buildings. Plans should consider the projected long term impacts of climate change and include:

Consideration of ESD features which showcase best practice in climate sensitive building design for public buildings.

Consideration of changes to construction materials and methods.

Asset management plans are typically prepared to outline the existing condition of infrastructure assets including Council buildings and recommend maintenance and asset renewal. These plans could be prepared and reviewed to take into account the impacts of climate change and to consider construction techniques or materials in response to climate change impacts. Plans should specifically consider ESD features including passive

Short term NESAC/Councils

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Climate Change Risk/Impact Risk Classification

Action Reason for Action Priority Lead Agency Other Contributors

in number of cooling systems Increased expenditure on upgrades to insulation/ cooling systems and building storm water systems Noise impacts from increase in number of cooling systems

High risk

Consider retrofitting insulation/ cooling systems to minimise cost.

Maintenance and operational costs. heating and cooling, appropriate solar orientation, consideration of energy efficiency in operating buildings and use of recycled materials and water and seek to reduce the impacts of higher operating costs resulting from climate change (i.e. increased electricity usage)

Design new/upgraded Council administered buildings to include: Ecologically sustainable design features which consider the

impacts of projected climate change including passive heating and cooling, solar or wind generated energy and appropriate solar orientation and recycled water.

Use appropriate designs to minimise lifecycle costs and maximise building performance.

Designs for new Council buildings should take into account climate change projections and the design should take into account ESD principles. Overall building design should minimise lifecycle costs and maximise building performance.

Short term NESAC/Councils

Prepare and deliver an education campaign to the community about the need to reduce the noise impacts of air conditioners and heat pumps on neighbouring properties in the late evening and early morning. .

Clause 52 of the NSW Protection of the Environment Operations (Noise Control) Regulation 2008 requires that a person must not cause or permit an air conditioner or heat pump water heater to be used on residential premises in such a manner that it emits noise that can be heard within a habitable room in any other residential premises (regardless of whether any door or window to that room is open): (a) before 8 am or after 10 pm on any Saturday, Sunday or public holiday, or (b) before 7 am or after 10 pm on any other day. Further education of the community and developers is required to manage the amenity impacts of air conditioners and heat pumps and to encourage placement of new infrastructure in locations away from habitable rooms of neighbouring dwellings.

Longer term NESAC/Councils NSW Department of Environment, Climate Change and Water

Encourage developers to design buildings to avoid the need for heat pumps and air conditioners.

Council Officers could encourage homeowners and developers to include design features in new buildings to take advantage of passive heating or cooling opportunities.

Short term/Ongoing

NESAC/Councils NSW Department of Planning Australian Building Codes Board

Advocate to Government to continue to consider innovative and climate change responsive legislation to improve the performance of buildings and to indicate energy and water efficiency of existing buildings as part of the conveyancing process.

Governments can legislate for minimum standards in building design (eg. the NSW BASIX system for water and energy efficiency)

Short term/Ongoing

NESAC/Councils Australian Building Codes Board

Reduced reliability of power supply

High risk

Investigate options for alternative energy generation (including generators and solar power) to essential Council and community infrastructure including:

Hospitals, water and sewerage infrastructure and aged care facilities.

Reduced availability of power supply including increased occurrences of black outs may result from increased storms and bushfires. Provision of alternative energy generation including backup power supply is costly and not typically provided for all uses. Hospitals, water and sewerage infrastructure and aged care facilities have been identified as essential infrastructure which requires an ongoing power supply.

Medium term NESAC/Councils Emergency Management NSW NSW Industry and Investment SES

Advocate to electricity supply companies to develop emergency response plans which:

Prioritise reinstatement of electricity following black outs for all essential services including hospitals, water and sewerage infrastructure and aged care facilities.

Respond to risks associated with bushfires.

Outages in power supply have the greatest impact on vulnerable groups and critical physical infrastructure which services the community. Consideration should be given by power companies to prioritise reinstatement of electricity following black outs to essential services including hospitals, water and sewerage infrastructure and aged care facilities.

Medium term NESAC/Councils Electricity supply companies Emergency Management NSW SES

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Climate Change Risk/Impact Risk Classification

Action Reason for Action Priority Lead Agency Other Contributors

Reduced reliability of power supply

High risk

Develop an education program to encourage energy efficiency and increased ESD features in building design to reduce reliance on power supply.

Councils could work in collaboration with the NSW Department of Environment, Climate Change and Water, NSW Department of Planning and the electricity supply companies to develop and deliver an education program to encourage energy efficiency and increased ESD features in building design to reduce reliance on power supply. This would develop capacity of the community to adapt buildings in response to projected climate change.

Medium term NESAC/Councils Electricity supply companies NSW Industry and Investment NSW Department of Planning

Reduced reliability of air transport services

Extreme risk Investigate options to improve reliability of regional air transport services, taking into account climate change projections, including:

Consider the cost and benefits of options to lengthen the Armidale Regional Airport runway.

Discuss options with airlines to use alternative, fuel efficient aircraft.

Air transport services from Armidale Regional Airport are currently affected during high temperatures in summer months as planes have either had to reduce their overall weight or have been delayed from take off as they require a longer runway for takeoff in high temperatures. Options to address this issue such as investigating options to lengthen the runway or use alternative plans require further investigation to ensure that air transport services are reliable in the future. This may involve reservation of land for future land purchase.

Short term NESAC/Councils NSW Department of Transport Infrastructure

Advocate to the NSW Transport and Infrastructure to develop a funding program for capital works at regional airports including the Armidale Airport.

The NSW Department of Transport and Infrastructure has advised that no State Government funding is currently available for capital works in regional airports. Other state Government and territories provide funding for regional and remote airports and air services.

Medium term NESAC/Councils NSW Department of Transport and Infrastrucutre

Investigate availability of Australian Government funding for capital works at the Armidale Airport including extension of the airport runway.

The Australian Government Department of Infrastructure, Transport, Regional Development and Local Government advised that a range of grants available for regional Australia and for infrastructure projects could be investigated to determine whether funding for a runway extension is available.

Medium term NESAC/Councils Australian Government Department of Infrastructure, Transport, Regional Development and Local Government

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5. Implementation of Action Plan 5.1. Implementation and Governance

Implementation of this Action Plan will require a coordinated effort by NESAC, its member Councils and other authorities and internal coordination within each agency. While this is a long term Action Plan, its emphasis is on actions which are achievable within the next ten years. Achieving these actions is likely to require advocating for the inclusion of short term, high priority actions in State Government budgets and Council Community Strategic Plans and Operational Plans to ensure that sufficient resourcing is obtained to achieve these actions.

Budgetary and resource constraints are likely to be significant barriers to implementing this Action Plan. However, actions have been identified to focus on building on existing Council programs and initiatives to minimise cost and resource implications to NESAC and member Councils.

Appropriate co-ordination within each Council will be critical to the success of implementing this Action Plan. Each Council would need to take responsibility for communicating with Council Officers and Councillors about the Action Plan and priority actions, monitoring implementation of the Action Plan and reporting on progress towards implementing priority actions contained within the Action Plan. Ideally each Council would nominate a person with overall responsibility to managing implementation of this Action Plan and each action would also need a “champion” with responsibility for procuring funding and resources for implementation of each action and regularly reporting progress on implementation.

5.2. Monitoring Action Plan

NESAC is committed to ensuring that this Action Plan is monitored on an annual basis to ensure that priority actions are implemented and that the Action Plan adequately responds to risks of projected climate change over time.

Annual monitoring is intended to include:

Reporting on implementation of actions.

Consideration of any barriers and challenges to implementing the Action Plan.

Consideration of any new information regarding climate change risks.

Revising any priorities to implementing the Action Plan.

Identifying opportunities to revise the Action Plan or bring implementation back on schedule.

Annual monitoring should be reported in each Council’s Annual/State of the Environment reports.

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5.3. Review of Action Plan

It is anticipated that this Action Plan will be reviewed every five years, or earlier if circumstances require. NESAC, in collaboration with the Walcha Shire, will determine the nature of the review, review progress to implement the Action Plan, and will determine whether major changes in direction are required to take account of new information, new risks or other changing circumstances.

The first review of the Action Plan is anticipated to commence in 2014 and will be aligned with revision of each Council’s Community Strategic Plan.

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6. References Australian Greenhouse Office, Department of the Environment and Water Resources (2007), Climate Change Adaptation Actions for Local Government. Canberra: Australian Government.

Australian Greenhouse Office, (2006) Climate Change Impacts and Risk Management – A Guide for Business and Local Government. Canberra: Australian Government.

Climate Institute, (2006) Climate of the Nation Australians Attitudes to Climate Change and Its Solutions. NSW, available at www.climateinstitute.org.au.

Council of Australian Governments (2007), National Climate Change Adaptation Framework.

England, P (2007), Climate Change – What Are Local Governments Liable For ? Urban Research Program, Issues Paper 6, Griffith University.

Local Government Association of Queensland Incorporated (2007), Adapting to Climate Change, A Queensland Local Government Guide.

Marsden Jacob Associates (et al) (2008), Impacts of Climate Change on Settlements in the Western Port Region, Climate Change Risks and Adaptation.

Nature Conservation Council of NSW, (2008), New England Climate Consensus Project Report.

Nature Conservation Council of NSW, (2009), NSW Community Climate Change Summit, Community Feedback Report, Recommendations to Government.

Planning Workshop Australia (2008), New England Draft Development Strategy, Prepared for NESAC.

PMSEIC Independent Working Group (2007), Climate Change in Australia: Regional Impacts and Adaptation – Managing the Risk for Australia, Report Prepared for the Prime Minister’s Science, Engineering and Innovation Council, Canberra.

Sinclair Knight Merz (2009), Assessment of Climate Change Risks to New England Strategic Alliance of Councils. Report for NESAC.

Stern, N (2006), Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change, United Kingdom Treasury. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

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Appendix A Risk Assessment Report

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Assessment of Climate Change Risks to New England Strategic Alliance of Councils

Revision 7 17 June 2009

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Assessment of Climate Change Risks for New England Strategic Alliance of Councils

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Assessment of Climate Change Risks to New England Strategic Alliance of Councils

Revision 7 17 June 2009

Sinclair Knight Merz ABN 37 001 024 095 32 Cordelia Street South Brisbane QLD 4101 Australia PO Box 3848 South Brisbane QLD 4101 Australia Tel: +61 7 3026 7100 Fax: +61 7 3026 7306 Web: www.skmconsulting.com COPYRIGHT: The concepts and information contained in this document are the property of the New England Strategic Alliance of Councils. NESAC grants the Australian Government a non-exclusive right to use the material.

LIMITATION: This report has been prepared on behalf of and for the exclusive use of Sinclair Knight Merz Pty Ltd’s client, and is subject to and issued in connection with the provisions of the agreement between Sinclair Knight Merz and its client. Sinclair Knight Merz accepts no liability or responsibility whatsoever for or in respect of any use of or reliance upon this report by any third party.

While every reasonable effort has been made to ensure that this document is correct at the time of publication, NESAC, its agents and employees, disclaim any and all liability to any person in respect of anything or the consequences of anything done or omitted to be done in reliance upon the whole or part of this document.

The Australian Government Department of Climate Change has assessed this report in accordance with the terms and conditions of the Local Adaptation Pathways Funding Agreement. However, this does not constitute endorsement of the material contained in this report by the Australian Government.

This report has been partly funded by the Australian Government Department of Climate Change under its Local Adaptation Pathways Program. It was prepared by Sinclair Knight Merz on behalf of NESAC who owns the copyright for this document.

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Contents 1.  Summary of Key Findings 1 

Extreme Risk To Land Use Planning 3 Extreme Risks To Environment And Natural Resources 3 Extreme Risk To Water Supply 4 Extreme Risk To Transport 4 Extreme Risk To Economic Development 4 High Risks For Land Use Planning 4 High Risks To Environment And Natural Resources 5 High Risk To Water Supply 5 High Risks To Waste Water 5 High Risks To Storm Water 5 High Risks To Roads 6 High Risks To Buildings 6 High Risks To Economic Development 6 High Risks To Community Health 6 High Risks To Air Transport Services 7 

2.  The Project 9 3.  Risk Context 11 4.  Analysis of Priority Risks 14 5.  Climate Risk Register: Planning and Environment 20 6.  Climate Risks Register: Infrastructure and Infrastructure Services 25 7.  Climate Risks Register: Corporate and Community Services 29 Attachment 1: Climate Change Scenario 33 Attachment 2: NESAC Climate Risk Framework 36 Attachment 3: Workshop Participants 38 

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Document history and status Revision Date issued Reviewed by Approved by Date approved Revision type

1 3 /12/08 Paul Locke Paul Locke 3/12/08 Project manager

2 11/12/08 Chris Beale Paul Locke 12/12/08 Practice review

3 12/12/08 Paul Locke Paul Locke 12/12/08 Incorporation of practice review comments

4 5/01/2009 NESAC Stephen Gow 19/12/08 Client review

5 3/03/2009 Dept of Climate Change

Commonwealth review

6 23/3/2009 Paul Locke Paul Locke 23/3/2009 Incorporation of Australian Government Department of Climate Change review comments

7 17/6/2009 Rachel Ducker Stephen Gow 17/6/2009 Incorporation of Australian Government Department of Climate Change review comments

Distribution of copies Revision Copy no Quantity Issued to

1 1 1 Paul Locke

2 1 1 Chris Beale

3 1 1 (PDF) NESAC (Sarah Sheehan)

4 1 1 (PDF) NESAC (Sarah Sheehan)

5 1 1 (PDF) NESAC (Stephen Gow)

6 1 1 (PDF) NESAC (Stephen Gow)

7 1 1 (PDF) NESAC (Stephen Gow)

Printed: 19 June 2009

Last saved: 19 June 2009 12:25 AM

File name:

Author: Danielle Kidd

Project manager: Paul Locke

Name of organisation: New England Regional Councils

Name of project: NESAC Climate Change Risk Assessment

Name of document: Assessment of climate change risks to New England Strategic Alliance of Councils

Document version: Revision 7

Project number: QE06384

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1. Summary of Key Findings This report details the risks that climate change poses to the New England Strategic Alliance of Councils (NESAC) with respect to planning and environment, infrastructure and Council services. The assessment is based on a single high global warming scenario to 2050. The use of a high warming scenario is consistent with current trends in global greenhouse gas emissions.

Figure 1 Extreme and High Risks: Planning and Environment summarises the extreme and high risks for NESAC with respect to planning and environment. Figure 2 Extreme and High Risks: Infrastructure and Infrastructure Services summarises the extreme and high risks for NESAC with respect to infrastructure and infrastructure services. Figure 3 Extreme And High Risks For NESAC Corporate And Community Services summarises the extreme and high risks for NESAC with respect to corporate and community services. Extreme risks are unacceptably high and action should be taken to address these as a matter of priority. High risks are less urgent, but action is still required to make the risk as low as reasonably achievable.

Figure 1 Extreme and High Risks: Planning and Environment

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Figure 2 Extreme and High Risks: Infrastructure and Infrastructure Services

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Figure 3 Extreme And High Risks For NESAC Corporate And Community Services

Extreme Risk To Land Use Planning

The NESAC area draws heavily on groundwater resources for urban, industrial and agricultural use. Potential changes in the location of the water table will impact on quality and security of water supply. Exposure to this risk is variable across each of the councils. The direction of change in the water table is unclear at this stage. Increased runoff may lead to rising water tables, however if the drier end of the climate change projections were to be realised the water table may decline in the region.

Extreme Risks To Environment And Natural Resources

Increased water availability during the summer and autumn months may lead to increased weed infestation on both private and public land. Existing controls are limited in their effectiveness at managing current weed infestations, which are likely to worsen with climate change out to 2050.

Increased runoff in summer and autumn months may lead to reduced health of waterways due to sedimentation and eutrophication. Control measures are currently only moderately effective at

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managing sedimentation due to runoff related erosion and therefore are unlikely to be effective out to 2050.

Changes in rainfall, temperature, and bushfire regimes as a result of climate change are likely to impact on species composition of the local environment. Existing controls are relatively ineffective in managing the current risk. As such they are unlikely to be effective in managing additional climate related impacts.

Climate change poses a threat to native vegetation in non-urban areas. Current controls to maintain vegetation cover are moderately effective. However, they are unlikely to be adequate for ensuring desirable levels of vegetation cover in the period to 2050.

The risk of reduced biodiversity in the NESAC region is likely to increase with climate change due to changes in rainfall, temperature, extreme events, bushfires, and water quality/quantity. Existing controls for managing biodiversity in the region are of limited effectiveness.

Extreme Risk To Water Supply

There is an increased risk of dam failure due a possible increase in rainfall intensity and flows during extreme events out to 2050. Existing controls to monitor and mitigate dam failure are considered to be fairly effective. However consideration needs to be given to the suitability of these controls given the potential for extreme rainfall events as a result of climate change.

Extreme Risk To Transport

Increased water pressure and flow rates associated with high rainfall events have the potential to decrease the structural stability of bridges, with heightened chance of failure. This risk is highest for timber bridges (with other non timber bridges rated as tolerable risk). In the event that this risk materialises, a significant repair effort or replacement would be required.

Extreme Risk To Economic Development

Rainfall is projected to increase in the New England region during all months except winter, while rainfall in other regions is projected to decline (e.g. the southern Murray Darling Basin). As such there is a risk of negative environmental impacts created from increased agricultural production levels in the region due to increasing viability. Existing controls are considered to be relatively ineffective in managing this risk, which is highly likely to eventuate by 2050 given the current projections.

High Risks For Land Use Planning

Increased rainfall and flows during summer and autumn may lead to increased flooding in low lying developed areas and extension of flood range. Councils’ control measures include flood standards and the acquisition of properties in low lying areas. Flood extents may need to be revised to accommodate future climate change.

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Increased frequency of bushfires will increase the risk to Council buildings and other assets. Fire protection systems combined with fire and emergency services are highly effective in preventing fire damage to buildings at present, but these may be inadequate for keeping fire risk in the tolerable range as climate change occurs.

High Risks To Environment And Natural Resources 

If the dry end of the range of climate change projections were to be realised NESAC may face a reduction in surface water available for agricultural use. Harvestable water rights limitations already render drought proofing difficult and existing controls are only moderately effective in managing drought conditions (though this is variable between regions). Furthermore reduction in non-reticulated water supply for rural/domestic use may also be reduced if climate change results in reduced rainfall in the region.

Water supply systems are at risk of increased frequency of algal blooms due to higher temperatures out to 2050. While current controls are relatively effective at managing algal blooms, an increased frequency of these events may require additional treatment and management at a considerable cost.

Climate related damage to creeks, rivers and aquatic ecosystems across the region would result in the loss of aquatic ecosystem services/ and values that these systems currently provide, many of which are not fully understood. Current controls for maintaining the integrity of aquatic ecosystems are of limited effectiveness, so additional action is likely to be required.

High Risk To Water Supply

Changes in the water table and possible tree root intrusion (under a dry scenario) will lead to an increased risk of cracking of pipe networks. Current preventative and reactive controls are relatively effective at managing the current risk, however maintenance costs may increase under climate change. This risk is also applicable to wastewater and storm water networks

High Risks To Waste Water

Increased storm water ingress into sewerage system may result from higher rainfall events placing pressure on existing services. This will also result in additional cost for sewage treatment plants to manage the increased volume in waste water. Current controls are moderately effective at managing this risk.

High Risks To Storm Water

An increase in the frequency and intensity of high rainfall events will place pressure on existing storm water infrastructure. Current drainage infrastructure is moderately effective in managing high rainfall events. Higher rainfall events are likely to result in an increase in the size of floods resulting in more widespread damage.

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High Risks To Roads

Climate change is likely to result in increased damage to road surfaces. Existing design standards and maintenance/ repairs are moderately effective in managing current climate related damage however, these are unlikely to be adequate over the period to 2050.

Additional flooding and erosion of the many unsealed roads within the NESAC area would require a significant additional repair and maintenance effort, with impacts on Council resources.

High Risks To Buildings

Higher temperatures will reduce the thermal performance of existing buildings. Buildings will require additional energy for cooling, even though current building management systems are moderately effective. This will have an impact on Council finances due to higher power bills and expenditure on insulation. Council will also have to manage potential noise issues associated with the increase in cooling systems.

Extreme weather events are likely to result in increased damage to Council buildings. Current design standards, maintenance regimes, and emergency systems are highly effective in managing building damage at present. Nevertheless, it is anticipated that there is a high additional risk due to climate change.

High Risks To Economic Development

Reduced reliability of power supply due to an increased frequency of extreme events (storms, floods, bushfires) may negatively impact on essential services and operations. Councils will need to work with other stakeholders to plan for such events.

Whilst outside of Council’s control, NESAC will need to be aware of the risk of a climate driven economic crisis. This may impact on Council’s financial reserves and its ability to retain staff and carry out its core functions.

Climate change will present opportunities as well as risk. A key risk for NESAC is the failure to identify and take advantage of emerging opportunities as a result of climate change. Current economic development strategies and investment plans are generally ineffective in identifying such opportunities and diversifying the local economy.

High Risks To Community Health

Increased heat stress on staff and residents due to an increase in the number of extreme heat days may result in increased mortality and pressure on the health system. In addition, increased storm related injury and death may also stress the existing hospital system. The hospital system is currently moderately effective in managing such occurrences so additional planning for future increases in demand is likely to be required.

Climate related changes in water quality and quantity may lead to increased potential for water borne disease. Water treatment plants are currently highly effective in managing water borne

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disease outbreaks, however this may come at additional cost if instances become more frequent out to 2050.

Increases in the frequency and severity of extreme events that result in hardship, loss of life or property will likely lead to an increased demand for mental health support. Mental health support services are already strained due to the recent events including drought, therefore it is likely that additional health professionals will be needed to provide a satisfactory service in the future.

High Risks To Air Transport Services

Reduced reliability of air transport services may eventuate as a result of higher temperatures and increased extreme weather events in the region. Higher temperatures reduce runway capacity (planes require longer runways to land in hot weather) and extreme weather introduces safety risks. Reduced capacity due to temperatures is already a high risk for Armidale airport. Controls currently in place are highly effective in managing the current risk, however these may not be reliable out to 2050 with higher temperatures and more severe weather events.

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The risk assessment process identified and analysed 71 risks to NESAC. Figure 4 Distribution Of Climate Change Risks shows that the majority (58%) of climate change risks to NESAC are classed as moderate or low after current control measures are taken into account. However, there are a sizeable number of extreme and high risks that need to be addressed in order to enable NESAC to deal with climate change over the next 40 years.

Figure 4 Distribution Of Climate Change Risks

Legend

Consequence Likelihood Risk Rating

Catastrophic Major Moderate Minimal Insignificant

Cat Maj Mod Min Insig

Almost Certain Likely Possible Unlikely Rare

AC L P U R

Extreme High Tolerable Low Negligible

 

 

Insig

Min

Mod

Maj

Cat

01234567891011121314

AC

LP

UR

8

11

5

1

14

12

26

7

3

1

1

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2. The Project Objectives The objective of this project is to identify and assess the key risks that climate change poses to the achievement of local government objectives in the New England region of NSW (NESAC region only), and identify appropriate risk management and adaptation strategies. The project is being undertaken in two phases.

1) Risk Assessment – this phase involved facilitating risk assessment workshops with key NESAC staff and contractors with responsibility for infrastructure planning, delivery and operation

2) Adaptation Strategy – this phase will involve developing strategies for addressing extreme and high level risks identified through the risk assessment.

This report provides the outcomes of the first phase of the project only.

The project is examining the impacts of climate change on environment and planning within the NESAC region, Council controlled infrastructure with respect to construction, maintenance and Council service delivery. It is considering changes in climate from its current state to 2050 based on the climate scenario provided in Attachment 1: Climate Change Scenario. The scenario assumes high-global warming to 2050, which is consistent with current emissions trends.

Method The risk assessment was carried out in accordance with AS/NZS 4360: 2004 Risk Management and the Department of Climate Change publication, Climate Change Impacts and Risk Management: A Guide for Business and Government.

Establishing context

Workshop participants were provided with a background paper that summarised the key elements of the internal and external risk context for NESAC. The paper included the relevant consequence and likelihood scales and the climate change scenario (Attachment 2)

Risk identification, analysis and evaluation

Three risk workshops were held with relevant technical specialists from across NESAC (Attachment 3). The workshops were organised around three key themes:

Planning and environment;

Infrastructure and infrastructure services;

Corporate and community services.

The workshop themes are logical grouping of the key elements considered in the risk assessment process. Key elements were selected to reflect the core responsibilities of the NESAC councils, irrespective of organisational structure. Alignment with council responsibilities ensures that the

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findings of the risk assessment process and adaptation plan can be effectively addressed by councils irrespective of their existing organisational structures. A detailed breakdown of key elements considered within each workshop is provided in Table 1 Key Elements For Risk Assessment Process.

 

Table 1 Key Elements For Risk Assessment Process

Planning and environment Infrastructure and infrastructure services

Corporate and community services

Land use planning

Environment and natural resources

Water supply

Waste water

Storm water

Transport infrastructure

Buildings

Waste management

Economic development

Property

Community health

Aged and disability services

Disaster and emergency planning and management

Parks and Recreation

Transport services

 

A fourth workshop was also conducted to review the outcomes of the previous three workshops in terms of whole of Council issues.

  

Consultation and Communication NESAC sought to involve key stakeholders and experts from across council and the community in the project through participation in the risk assessment and adaptation planning workshops (Attachment 3). The findings of the risk assessment process were circulated to participants and council officers for consideration and comment. Appropriate amendments have been included in this report. As part of this project, a special briefing session was held for elected representatives to raise their knowledge and awareness of climate change, explain the project and its findings and obtain their support and a sense of their priorities for adaptation planning. NESAC proposes to consult with the broader community once a draft adaptation plan has been developed.

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3. Risk Context Climate Change is Real The fundamental premise underpinning this project is an acceptance by the NESAC councils that that climate change is real and will affect the New England region. Climate change will create risks and opportunities for the region that need to be managed and/ or capitalised on in order to ensure the ongoing prosperity of the region. Detailed examination of the evidence for climate change is beyond the scope of this report. Readers with reservations about reality of climate change are encouraged to examine the resources available at the following websites:

Department of Climate Change: www.climatechange.gov.au

CSIRO: www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: www.ipcc.ch

The climate change scenario used for this project is provided in Attachment 1: Climate Change Scenario.

 

The New England Region The New England Region is located in inland northern NSW, approximately half way between Sydney and Brisbane via the New England Highway. It consists of four local government areas:

Armidale – population 23 368

Guyra – population 4 229

Uralla - population 5 734

Walcha – population 3 187

Most of the region is more than 1000m above sea level giving it a mild temperate climate. Rainfall in the region is highly reliable and is rarely significantly affected by drought.

 

Key Industries The regional economy is dominated by education and agricultural production. A summary of key industries by region is provided below.

Armidale Dumaresq Guyra Uralla Walcha

Agriculture Fine wool Lamb Beef

Education Prime lamb Beef Merinos and lambs

Scientific Research and Development

Beef Fine wool Fine wool

Tourism Potatoes Woollen garments Ecotourism

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Information Technology

Tomatoes Wine Timber

Service industries Tourism Teas

Aquaculture Herbs

Organisational Objectives - New England Strategic Alliance of Councils’ The New England Strategic Alliance of Councils (NESAC), incorporating Armidale, Guyra, Uralla and Walcha, was established as an alternative to the amalgamation of councils, as recommended by the “Vardon Report” and the 2004 Boundaries Commission Report. NESAC’s objective is to:

Provide residents and their communities with the best possible and most economically efficient community services and facilities to achieve a quality lifestyle that is self-sufficient and sustainable, without sacrificing local representation, employment opportunity or local identity.

Shared service delivery is at the heart of NESAC’s role. It provides an opportunity to achieve economies of scale leading to more effective and efficient outcomes.

Governance NESAC is governed by the New England Strategic Alliance Advisory Committee (NESAAC) which is comprised of high-level representatives from each Council. The Alliance is structured to provide:

organisational autonomy and control for individual councils;

cooperation to provide enhanced and increased service levels.

In addition to high-level governance, NESAC Council’ officers cooperate at all levels to achieve the Alliance’s objectives. In practice, the Alliance framework presents significant political, policy and program coordination challenges. The pervasive nature of climate change risks is likely to exacerbate the current governance and administrative challenges.

Financial Position The 2007-08 Audit of Council finances found that three of the four NESAC councils are in an acceptable financial position. Council’s financial position will influence their ability to respond to climate change effectively.

External Influences NESAC’s ability to effectively manage climate change risk is complicated by the external political and jurisdictional context. Local governments do not have jurisdiction over, or share responsibilities with, other levels of government in key policy areas. State Government decisions can have a particularly significant impact on NESAC’s approach to addressing climate risks. Key elements of local government responsibility are summarised in Figure 5 Local Government Responsibilities.

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Figure 5 Local Government Responsibilities

SKM (2007) Adapting to Climate Change: A Queensland Local Government Guide: LGAQ.

Risk Analysis The criteria for analysing the identified risks were developed by SKM in consultation with NESAC Councils. It was developed for the purpose of this project on the basis of NESAC’s existing risk assessment framework and the Department of Climate Change publication, Climate Change Impacts and Risk Management: A Guide for Business and Government. The scales for consequence criteria, likelihood criteria and risk analysis are included in Attachment 2.

These scales are defined for NESAC and are not necessarily transferrable to another jurisdiction as the risk context for each area will differ. Similarly the criteria for Australian or State Government organisations would also require development within the objectives of these organisations.

Uncertainties Uncertainty is an inherent feature of climate change. Our climate is shifting into a state that we have no experience of, and therefore limited reference points from which to make judgements and decisions. Risk assessment is a valuable tool for understanding and managing uncertainty. Although it is possible to identify the hazards with a reasonable degree of certainty, the immediate and consequential impacts and the likelihood that they will occur are uncertain. This is particularly true of impacts on natural systems, which are less well understood than man-made infrastructure or systems.

Decisions about consequence, likelihood and risk are inherently driven by perception. The risk assessment process drew on the opinion of experienced professionals in their respective fields so that the perceptions of risk were as informed as possible. The absence of quantitative analysis should not be confused with a lack of rigour. When managing uncertainty, it is better to be approximately right that precisely wrong.

The impacts of climate change will be increased or reduced over time by other contextual factors such as population and demographic changes, social and behavioural change, and capacity for adaptation.

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4. Analysis of Priority Risks Key element Impact Assumptions Existing Controls

Effectiveness of controls

Consequence scale used

C L Risk

Rating

Land use planning

Change in water table impacting on quality and security of water supply

Direction of change in water table uncertain, quality highly

variable across regions

State government controls/water licensing, LEP(integrated water

cycle management) 5% - 33% Env Maj L Extreme

Environment and natural resources

Increased weed infestation

Private and public land

New England Weeds Authority, private land holder management,

rural lands protection boards, RTA, DECC, State Forests

5% - 33% Env Cat L Extreme

Environment and natural resources

Reduced health of waterways due to sedimentation and

eutrophication

DCP, LEP, State Government

controls 33% - 66% Env Maj L Extreme

Environment and natural resources

Change in species composition of local

environment

LEP, CMA, Native Vegetation Act (controls clearing)

5% - 33% Env Maj L Extreme

Environment and natural resources

Loss of non-urban vegetation

DCP, LEP, State Government

controls, CMA, change in farming practice

33% - 66% Env Maj L Extreme

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Key element Impact Assumptions Existing Controls Effectiveness

of controls Consequence

scale used C L

Risk Rating

Environment and natural resources

Loss of biodiversity EPBC Act, CMA, EPA Act, TSC

Act 5% - 33% Env Maj L Extreme

Water supply Increased risk of dam

failure Over topping of

earth dams

Design standards, regular dam safety reviews, flood warning

systems, flood plans 66% - 95% Assets Cat P Extreme

Transport

Reduced structural stability of timber bridges with heightened chance

of failure

Design standards, maintenance

regimes, replacement 5% - 33% Assets Maj L Extreme

Economic development

Increase agricultural production pressure with negative environmental

impacts

Land clearing controls (under management of DECC), land care

activities, CMA controls, DWE controls

5% - 33% Env Mod AC Extreme

Land use planning

Increased flooding in low lying developed areas and extension of flood

range

Design standards, flood standards, Local Environmental Plan (LEP) acquisition of flood

prone properties, waterway management

66% - 95% Assets Mod L High

Land use planning

Increased bush fire risk to settlements and

infrastructure

Rural Fire Service, bushfire management plan, map of

bushfire prone areas 5% - 33% Assets Maj P High

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Key element Impact Assumptions Existing Controls Effectiveness

of controls Consequence

scale used C L

Risk Rating

Environment and natural resources

Reduction in surface water available for

agricultural use

Assumes drying, harvestable water rights limitations renders drought proofing difficult

Dam capacity/design, development controls for water harvesting, embedded supply,

water sharing plans

33% - 66% Econ Mod L High

Environment and natural resources

Loss of aquatic ecosystem

services/values

DCP, LEP, State Government controls

5% - 33% Social Mod L High

Environment and natural resources

Reduction in non- reticulated water supply for rural/domestic use

Assumes drying and/or change in

seasonality, impact vary

across regions

DCP 33% - 66% Social Mod L High

Environment and natural resources

Increased algal blooms in water supply

Controls vary by supply authorities, mostly secondary controls (end of

line)

Ozonation plant (Armidale), water treatment, creation of wetlands

66% - 95% Pol Mod L High

Water supply Increased cracking of

pipes All pipe networks

Design standards, maintenance regimes, infrastructure replacement programs

66% - 95% Assets Mod L High

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Key element Impact Assumptions Existing Controls Effectiveness

of controls Consequence

scale used C L

Risk Rating

Wastewater Increased stormwater ingress into sewerage

system

Variable across regions

Design standards, maintenance regimes, infrastructure

replacement programs, building regulations

33% - 66% Env Mod L High

Stormwater Inadequate stormwater infrastructure capacity

resulting in larger floods

Design standards, flood mapping, building standards, emergency

plan 33% - 66% Social Mod L High

Transport Increased damage to

road surfaces

Design standards, maintenance regimes, asset renewal, post

event repair 33% - 66% Assets Mod L High

Transport Increased flood damage

to unsealed roads

Design standards, maintenance regimes, asset renewal, post

event repair 33% - 66% Assets Mod L High

Buildings

Increased expenditure on upgrades to insulation/ cooling systems and & building storm water

systems

Cooling systems, education,

BASIX 33% - 66% Pol Mod L High

Buildings Noise impacts from

increase in number of cooling systems

Noise control legislation/

enforcement 33% - 66% Social Mod L High

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Key element Impact Assumptions Existing Controls Effectiveness

of controls Consequence

scale used C L

Risk Rating

Economic development

Reduced reliability of power supply

State Government electricity

market regulation, design standards, BASIX

66% - 95% Safety Maj P High

Economic development

Climate driven economic crisis

Diversity of economic base,

economic development strategy, investment plan

33% - 66% Econ Maj P High

Economic development

Failure to identify and take advantage of emerging markets

Diversity of economic base,

economic development strategy, investment plan

5% - 33% Econ Mod L High

Community health

Increased heat stress on staff and residents with potential for increased

mortality

Cooling systems, OHS plan 33% - 66% Safety Maj P High

Community health

Increased injury and death

Building design standards,

weather warnings, education 66% - 95% Safety Maj P High

Community health

Increased potential for water borne disease

Water treatment, multiple

legislation (public health is the main)

66% - 95% Safety Maj P High

Community health

Increased demand for mental health support

Mental health programs 33% - 66% Social Maj P High

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Key element Impact Assumptions Existing Controls Effectiveness

of controls Consequence

scale used C L

Risk Rating

Transport services

Reduced reliability of air transport services

Australian Government control 66% - 95% Social Mod L High

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5. Climate Risk Register: Planning and Environment Key element Impact Assumptions Existing Controls

Effectiveness of controls

Consequence scale used

C L Risk

Rating

Land use planning Increased flooding in low lying

developed areas and extension of flood range

Design standards, flood standards, Local

Environmental Plan (LEP) acquisition of

flood prone properties, waterway management

66% - 95% Assets Mod L High

Land use planning Increased bush fire risk to

settlements and infrastructure

Rural Fire Service, bushfire management plan, map of bushfire

prone areas

5% - 33% Assets Maj P High

Land use planning Increase in population due to

climate related migration Potential for aged

migration LEP 66% - 95% Social Min P Tolerable

Land use planning Change in land use urban/rural/industrial

Implications for council service

delivery, requires compliance with

State Government Agencies

LEP 66% - 95% Pol Min L Tolerable

Land use planning Increased competition for

land/resources Land considered as

primary resource LEP 66% - 95% Env Min L Tolerable

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Key element Impact Assumptions Existing Controls Effectiveness

of controls Consequence

scale used C L

Risk Rating

Land use planning Increase risk of landslide and

erosion

Guyra, Uralla, Walcha don’t have

a slope hazard policy for urban

areas and Armidale’s policy requires updating

LEP, DCP, policy on slope hazards,

engineering 33% - 66% Assets Mod P Tolerable

Land use planning Change in agricultural practice

& nature of agribusiness Limited controls DCP, LEP 33% - 66% Econ Min L Tolerable

Land use planning Change in population spatial

distribution LEP 66% - 95% Social Min P Tolerable

Land use planning Change in water table

impacting on quality and security of water supply

Direction of change in water table

uncertain, quality highly variable across regions

State government controls/water

licensing, LEP(integrated water cycle management)

5% - 33% Env Maj L Extreme

Land use planning Increased use of renewable

energy - change in aesthetics

Direction of change in aesthetics

uncertain DCP, LEP 66% - 95% Social Mod U Tolerable

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Key element Impact Assumptions Existing Controls Effectiveness

of controls Consequence

scale used C L

Risk Rating

Environment and natural resources

Reduction in surface water availability for town water &

industrial supply Assumes drying

Dam capacity/design, development controls for water harvesting,

embedded supply

Fully effective Social Min U Low

Environment and natural resources

Reduction in surface water available for agricultural use

Assumes drying, harvestable water rights limitations renders drought proofing difficult

Dam capacity/design, development controls for water harvesting, embedded supply, water sharing plans

33% - 66% Econ Mod L High

Environment and natural resources

Increased weed infestation Private and public

land

New England Weeds Authority, private land holder management, rural lands protection boards, RTA, DECC,

State Forests

5% - 33% Env Cat L Extreme

Environment and natural resources

Increase in bushfires with damage to commercial

forestry, grazing and farming, conservation areas

Rural Fire Service, bushfire management plan, map of bushfire

prone areas

33% - 66% Econ Mod P Tolerable

Environment and natural resources

Increased bushfires resulting in increase in ash and

sediment contamination of town water supplies

grazing policy, controls on vegetation around

dams, 5% - 33% Pol Min P Tolerable

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Key element Impact Assumptions Existing Controls Effectiveness

of controls Consequence

scale used C L

Risk Rating

Environment and natural resources

Reduced health of waterways due to sedimentation and

eutrophication

DCP, LEP, State Government controls

33% - 66% Env Maj L Extreme

Environment and natural resources

Change in species composition of local

environment

LEP, CMA, Native Vegetation Act

(controls clearing) 5% - 33% Env Maj L Extreme

Environment and natural resources

Loss of aquatic ecosystem services/values

DCP, LEP, State

Government controls 5% - 33% Social Mod L High

Environment and natural resources

Loss of non-urban vegetation

DCP, LEP, State Government controls,

CMA, change in farming practice

33% - 66% Env Maj L Extreme

Environment and natural resources

Loss of biodiversity EPBC Act, CMA, EPA

Act, TSC Act 5% - 33% Env Maj L Extreme

Environment and natural resources

Reduction in non- reticulated water supply for rural/domestic

use

Assumes drying and/or change in

seasonality, impact vary across regions

DCP 33% - 66% Social Mod L High

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Key element Impact Assumptions Existing Controls Effectiveness

of controls Consequence

scale used C L

Risk Rating

Environment and natural resources

Increased algal blooms in water supply

Controls vary by supply authorities, mostly secondary controls (end of

line)

Ozonation plant (Armidale), water

treatment, creation of wetlands

66% - 95% Pol Mod L High

Environment and natural resources

Loss of non-native vegetation in urban areas

Assumes drying LEP, street tree policy Fully effective Social Mod P Tolerable

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6. Climate Risks Register: Infrastructure and Infrastructure Services Key element Impact Assumptions Existing Controls

Effectiveness of controls

Consequence scale used

C L Risk

Rating

Water supply Increased overtopping of dams

and weirs

Design standards, regular dam safety

revues, flood warning systems, flood plans

66% - 95% Social Min L Tolerable

Water supply Increased risk of dam failure Over topping of

earth dams

Design standards, regular dam safety

reviews, flood warning systems, flood plans

66% - 95% Assets Cat P Extreme

Water supply Increased cracking of pipes All pipe networks

Design standards, maintenance regimes,

infrastructure replacement programs

66% - 95% Assets Mod L High

Wastewater Increased corrosion of sewer

pipes Design standards 66% - 95% Assets Min P Tolerable

Wastewater

Increased hydrogen sulphide gas in sewers leading to

increased odour and complaints

Design standards 66% - 95% Assets Min P Tolerable

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Key element Impact Assumptions Existing Controls Effectiveness

of controls Consequence

scale used C L

Risk Rating

Wastewater Increased stormwater ingress

into sewerage system Variable across

regions

Design standards, maintenance regimes,

infrastructure replacement programs,

building regulations

33% - 66% Env Mod L High

Wastewater Increased range of pests in

drainage network All drainage

networks None Safety Min U Low

Wastewater Impaired efficiency of chemical

and biological wastewater treatment processes

Design standards,

licensing, operational standards

Fully effective Env Min U Low

Wastewater Reduced effectiveness of

waste disposal through ponds

Wastewater disposal methods

vary across councils

Licensing, design standards

66% - 95% Env Mod P Tolerable

Stormwater Inadequate stormwater infrastructure capacity

resulting in larger floods

Design standards, flood mapping, building

standards, emergency plan

33% - 66% Social Mod L High

Stormwater Damage to stormwater

infrastructure due to pressure

Design standards, maintenance regimes, replacement/upgrading

66% - 95% Assets Mod P Tolerable

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Key element Impact Assumptions Existing Controls Effectiveness

of controls Consequence

scale used C L

Risk Rating

Transport Increased damage to road

surfaces

Design standards, maintenance regimes,

asset renewal, post event repair

33% - 66% Assets Mod L High

Transport Increased flood damage to

unsealed roads

Design standards, maintenance regimes,

asset renewal, post event repair

33% - 66% Assets Mod L High

Transport Reduced structural stability of

non timber bridges with heightened chance of failure

Design standards,

maintenance regimes, 66% - 95% Assets Maj U Tolerable

Transport Reduced structural stability of timber bridges with heightened

chance of failure

Design standards, maintenance regimes,

replacement 5% - 33% Assets Maj L Extreme

Transport Increased damage to runway Design standards,

maintenance regimes, 66% - 95% Assets Min L Tolerable

Transport Reduction in aircraft capacity

due to increased temperatures Design standards 66% - 95% Econ Min L Tolerable

Transport Increased traffic safety

hazards

Design standards, education,

improvements, maintenance

66% - 95% Safety Mod P Tolerable

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Key element Impact Assumptions Existing Controls Effectiveness

of controls Consequence

scale used C L

Risk Rating

Buildings Increased damage to buildings Covers all types of

damage

Design standards, maintenance regimes,

repair, emergency management plan

66% - 95% Assets Min L Tolerable

Buildings

Increased expenditure on upgrades to insulation/ cooling systems and & building storm

water systems

Cooling systems, education, BASIX

33% - 66% Pol Mod L High

Buildings Noise impacts from increase in

number of cooling systems

Noise control legislation/ enforcement

33% - 66% Social Mod L High

Waste management Increase cracking of clay caps

on land fills Variable across

regions Design standards,

monitoring 66% - 95% Env Min P Tolerable

Public Liability Potential for increased climate related public liability exposure

insurance, maintenance

regimes 66% - 95% Pol Min P Tolerable

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7. Climate Risks Register: Corporate and Community Services Key element Impact Assumptions Existing Controls

Effectiveness of controls

Consequence scale used

C L Risk

Rating

Economic development

Significantly reduced viability of agricultural production in NESAC region with flow on

effects for regional economy

New England draft development

strategy will soon be released,

assumption under a drying scenario, (need planners

comment on risk assessment)

LEP, DPI 33% - 66% Econ Maj U Tolerable

Economic development

Population migration out of New England region

none Econ Maj U Tolerable

Economic development

Reduced reliability of power supply

State Government electricity market regulation, design standards, BASIX

66% - 95% Safety Maj P High

Economic development

Reduced availability of fossil fuel

peak oil will be main driver

none Safety Min U Low

Economic development

Reduced reliability of private IT structure

Air-conditioned buildings, business continuity plan, disaster recovery plan

66% - 95% Pol Mod U Tolerable

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Key element Impact Assumptions Existing Controls Effectiveness

of controls Consequence

scale used C L

Risk Rating

Economic development

Climate driven economic crisis

Diversity of economic base, economic

development strategy, investment plan

33% - 66% Econ Maj P High

Economic development

Failure to identify and take advantage of emerging

markets

Diversity of economic base, economic

development strategy, investment plan

5% - 33% Econ Mod L High

Economic development

Increase agricultural production pressure with negative environmental

impacts

Land clearing controls (under management of

DECC), land care activities, CMA controls,

DWE controls

5% - 33% Env Mod AC Extreme

Economic development

Climate impacts on individuals retirement income

Extended financial

control, Local Government Act

66% - 95% Social Mod P Tolerable

Economic development

Climate impacts on council financial reserves

Extended financial

control, Local Government Act

66% - 95% Econ Mod P Tolerable

Economic development

Reduced ability to access insurance/high insurance costs

Industry regulation 66% - 95% Econ Min P Tolerable

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Key element Impact Assumptions Existing Controls Effectiveness

of controls Consequence

scale used C L

Risk Rating

Property Increase maintenance and

repair costs for council property

Budget allocation,

maintenance program, insurance

66% - 95% Econ Mod P Tolerable

Community health Increased heat stress on staff and residents with potential for

increased mortality

Cooling systems, OHS plan

33% - 66% Safety Maj P High

Community health Increase in vector borne

diseases

State Government controls, disease

surveillance 66% - 95% Safety Min U Low

Community health Increased demand for

community health services Budget allocation 66% - 95% Pol Min P Tolerable

Community health Increased injury and death Building design

standards, weather warnings, education

66% - 95% Safety Maj P High

Community health Increased potential for water

borne disease

Water treatment, multiple legislation (public health

is the main) 66% - 95% Safety Maj P High

Community health Increased demand for mental

health support Mental health programs 33% - 66% Social Maj P High

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Key element Impact Assumptions Existing Controls Effectiveness

of controls Consequence

scale used C L

Risk Rating

Community health Increased potential for food

borne disease

State Government controls, food legislation,

surveillance 66% - 95% Safety Mod P Tolerable

Disaster and emergency

management

Increased expenditure on emergency/ disaster

management and recovery

Budget allocations, emergency management plans, local emergency

management plan

33% - 66% Pol Min L Tolerable

Disaster and emergency

management

Increased demand on hospital services

Budget allocation (State

and Australian issue) 66% - 95% Social Mod P Tolerable

Parks and recreation

Storm damage to recreational infrastructure

Design standards,

erosion control plans 33% - 66% Assets Mod P Tolerable

Parks and recreation

Lost functionality of sporting fields

Design standards,

maintenance programs 66% - 95% Social Min P Tolerable

Transport services Reduced reliability of land

based transport (roads cut, rail cut)

Design standards, local

emergency management plan

66% - 95% Social Min P Tolerable

Transport services Reduced reliability of air

transport services

Australian Government control

66% - 95% Social Mod L High

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Attachment 1: Climate Change Scenario Summary of climate change impacts on the New England Region for 2050 relative to 1990 According to the DECC (2008) projections, New England is likely to become warmer, with more hot days and fewer cold nights. Days are projected to be hotter over all seasons, with the greatest warming in winter and spring (2 to 3 °C, see Figure 6). Nights are projected to become warmer, with mean minimum temperatures projected to increase by 2 to 3°C in the east of the region, and slightly less in the west. Frosts are likely to be fewer. Increased peak summer energy demand for cooling is likely, with reduced energy demand in winter for heating. Warming and population growth may increase annual heat-related deaths in those aged over 65, while higher temperatures may also contribute to the spread of vector-borne, water-borne and food-borne diseases.

It is projected that rainfall will increase in spring, summer and autumn by 5-20%, but decrease in winter by 5-20%, with the greatest decrease in the west of the region (see Figure 7).

Figure 6: Projected Change In Temperature For The New England Region By 2050 (DECC, 2008)

 

  

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Figure 7: Projected Change In Rainfall For The New England Region By 2050 (DECC, 2008)

 

Evapotranspiration is projected to increase with the greatest increase during winter. Overall there is likely to be a slight increase in runoff. It is projected that runoff will increase by +7 to+20% in summer accompanied by a major increase in high flows. Changes in runoff of 16% to +24% are projected for autumn, along with a slight increase in the magnitude of high flows. In winter and spring there is likely to be a decrease in runoff (-29% to +11% for winter and -23% to +6% for spring) and current levels of low flows are likely to occur more frequently. If the drier end of the range of climate change projections were realised, towns with smaller water supplies would need to consider that there may be inflow reductions of 10-20% during drier periods. Flood producing rainfall events are likely to increase in frequency and intensity.

The average number of days per year with very high or extreme fire danger is predicted to increase. The fire season is also likely to be extended as a result of warmer temperatures.

Low to moderate warming may help plant growth especially frost sensitive crops such as wheat, but more hot days could reduce yields. Livestock would be adversely affected by greater heat stress. In forestry, the CO2 benefits may be offset by increased bushfires and changes in pests. Higher temperatures and drier conditions are very likely to have a major impact on biodiversity (particularly those ecological communities already stressed due to fragmentation).In cities, changes in average climate will affect building design, standards and performance and energy and water demand. Increases in extreme weather events are likely to lead to increased flash flooding, strains on sewerage and drainage systems, greater insurance losses, possible black-outs, and challenges for emergency services.

Change In Climate For New England Region: Summary Of Climate Change Information Available For Risk Assessment The climate change projections outlined in the following section are based on:

1) DECC (2008) ‘Summary of climate change impacts – New England/North West NSW region’;

2) CSIRO (2007) ‘Climate Change in Australia’; and

3) CSIRO (2006) ‘Climate change scenarios for initial assessment of risk in accordance with risk management guidance’.

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It should be noted that the climate change projections provided by DECC (2008) differ from those provided by CSIRO (2007). This is because the CSIRO scenarios are based on a general consensus among all 23 Global Climate Models (GCMs) included in the 2007 IPCC report. In contrast, the DECC report is based on the four ‘best’ GCMs (assessed on their ability to replicate the daily rainfall and temperature probability density functions for NSW). By using fewer models, that better replicate the historical record, the uncertainty in the projections tends to be reduced. In this project the DECC (2008) projections have been used as the primary source of climate change information.

It must also be considered that all climate change scenarios are inherently highly uncertain. There are many reasons for this uncertainty, for example, uncertainty in the emission scenarios used to run the GCMs (note the projections summarised in this report are based on the A2 emission scenario). Importantly, the climate models are based on an incomplete understanding of a highly complex global climate system and do not as yet realistically reproduce the natural climate cycles (e.g. such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation, the Indian Ocean Dipole etc.). Another limitation is that there is no information on what will happen between now and 2050 (i.e. will it be a gradual uniform change or an accelerating level of change to a new climate state?).

 

 

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Attachment 2: NESAC Climate Risk Framework   Success criteria         

Rating

  Public Safety  Asset Damage  Environment & 

Sustainability 

Local Economy 

& Growth 

Community & 

Lifestyle 

Public 

Administration 

Catastroph

ic 

Definite fatality(ies) 

and permanent 

disabilities  

Significant damage 

to most assets 

resulting in loss of 

capability. 

Serious long term 

environmental 

damage/pollution 

extended beyond 

site with toxic 

release  

Regional decline 

leading to 

widespread 

business failure, 

loss of employment 

and hardship 

The region would 

be seen as very 

unattractive, 

moribund and 

unable to support 

its community  

Public 

administration 

would fall into 

decay and cease to 

be effective 

Major 

Multiple long term 

personal injury, 

illness/possible 

fatalities 

Significant damage 

to many assets 

resulting in very 

limited capability 

Serious long term 

environmental 

damage/pollution 

extended beyond 

site but no toxic 

release 

Regional stagnation 

such that 

businesses are 

unable to thrive 

and employment 

does not keep pace 

with population 

growth 

Severe and 

widespread decline 

in services and 

quality of life 

within the 

community 

Public 

administration 

would struggle to 

remain effective 

and would be seen 

to be in danger of 

failing completely 

Mod

erate 

Personal 

injury/illness 

requiring medical 

treatment (no 

hospitalisation)  

Damage to assets 

resulting in isolated 

loss of capability 

Short term 

significant but 

reversible 

environmental 

damage 

Significant general 

reduction in 

economic 

performance 

relative to current 

forecasts  

General 

appreciable decline 

in services  

Public 

administration 

would be put under 

severe pressure on 

several fronts 

Minor 

Personal injury 

(first aid treatment) 

Damage to assets 

resulting in 

restrictions in 

capability 

Limited/localised 

environmental 

impact 

Individually 

significant but 

isolated areas of 

reduction in 

economic 

performance 

relative to current 

forecasts  

Isolated  but 

noticeable 

examples of decline 

in services  

Isolated instances 

of public 

administration 

being under severe 

pressure 

Insignificant 

No personal injury  Minor damage 

requiring increased 

maintenance 

No environmental 

impact  

Minor shortfall 

relative to current 

forecasts 

There would be 

minor areas in 

which the region 

was unable to 

maintain its current 

services 

There would be 

minor instances of 

public 

administration 

being under more 

than usual stress 

but it could be 

managed 

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Likelihood scales Rating   Recurrent Risks   Single Event

Rare  Unlikely during the next 25 years  Negligible  

- Probably very small, close to zero. 

Unlikely  May arise once every ten years to 25 years 

Unlikely but not negligible 

- Probably low but noticeably greater than zero. 

Possible  May arise once every ten years  Less likely than not but still appreciable  

- Probably less than 50% but still quite high. 

Likely  May arise about once per year  As likely as not  

- 50/50 chance. 

Almost Certain  Could occur several times per year  More likely than not 

- Probably greater than 50%. 

Risk Analysis Matrix

Likelihood Insignificant Minor Moderate Major Catastrophic

AC Tolerable High Extreme Extreme Extreme

L Low Tolerable High Extreme Extreme

P Low Tolerable Tolerable High Extreme

U Negligible Low Tolerable Tolerable High

R Negligible Negligible Low Tolerable High

Consequence

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Attachment 3: Workshop Participants Workshop facilitation All workshops were facilitated by:

Paul Locke, Sustainability and Climate Change Consultant, SKM; and

Dr Danielle Kidd, Hydroclimatologist, SKM.

 

Workshop participants WORKSHOP 1: PLANNING AND ENVIRONMENT – 26 NOV 2008

Bob Furze, Manager Planning & Environment, Guyra Shire Council

Steve Gow, Director Planning & Environment, Armidale Dumaresq Council

Euan Belson, Manager Health & Environment, Armidale Dumaresq Council

Libby Cumming, Manager Planning, Uralla Shire Council

Kathy Martin, Strategic Planner, NESAC

Paul Creenaune, Assistant Strategic Planner, NESAC

Ray South, Sustainable Living Armidale

Julian Prior, Professor in Ecosystems Management, University of New England

Sarah Sheehan, Armidale Dumaresq Council

WORKSHOP 2: CORPORATE AND COMMUNITY SERVICES – 26 NOV 2008

Kevin Abey, Manager Economic Development, Armidale Dumaresq Council

Rhonda Stachiw, Manager Administration, Armidale Dumaresq Council

John Baillie, Manager Information Technology

Tony Sorensen, Professor in Behavioural & Social Sciences, University of New England

Peta Cooper, Uralla Shire Council McMaugh Gardens Aged Care

Jane Michie, USC Accountant

Philippe Porigneaux, Hunter New England Health

Don Hine, UNE Behavioural, Cognitive & Social Sciences

Adam Blakester, Paradigm Play

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WORKSHOP 3: INFRASTRUCTURE AND INFRASTRUCTURE SERVICES – 27 NOV 2008

David Steller, ADC Engineering

Colin Maciver, NESAC Utilities Manager

Alan Harvey, Armidale Regional Airport Manager

Andrew Levingston, NESAC Fleet Manager

Luke Finnegan, ADC Waste Management

Robert Bell, USC Director Engineering Services

Steven Finch, USC Development Engineer

Richard Morsley, ADC Parks & Recreation

Steve McCoy, WC Engineer

Ben Harris, GSC Engineer

Richard Stayner, Institute of Rural Futures

WORKSHOP 4: WHOLE OF COUNCIL ISSUES – 27 NOV 2008

Bob Furze, GSC Planning & Environment

Steve Gow, ADC Planning & Environment

Euan Belson, ADC Health & Environment

Warren Sellings, USC Bldg & Environment

Gerry Moran, WC Planning & Environment

Kathy Martin, NESAC Strategic Planning

Derek Smith, Community Member, Guyra

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Appendix B Adaptation Workshop Participants

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WORKSHOP 1: PLANNING AND ENVIRONMENT – 2 MARCH 2009 

Stephen Gow, Armidale Dumaresq Council 

Kathy Martin, NESAC 

Paul Creenaune, NESAC 

Gerry Moran, Walcha Council 

Warren Sellings, Uralla Council 

Jackie Bowe, Southern England Land Care 

Greg Roberts, DECC 

Don Hine, UNE 

Bob Furze, Guyra Council 

Julian Prior, University of New England 

  WORKSHOP 2: CORPORATE AND COMMUNITY SERVICES – 3 MARCH 2009 

Jane Guilfoyle, Armidale Dumaresq Council 

John Baillie, Armidale Dumaresq Council 

Judith McNeill, UNE 

Adam Blakester, Paradigm Play 

Bob Furze, Guyra Council 

Chloe Burton, Armidale Dumaresq Council 

  WORKSHOP 3: INFRASTRUCTURE AND INFRASTRUCTURE SERVICES – 3 MARCH 2009 

Rhonda Stachiw, Council ADC 

Robert Bell, Uralla Council 

Alan Harvey, Armidale Dumaresq Council 

Colin Maciver, Armidale Dumaresq Council 

Andrew Strudwick, Armidale Dumaresq Council 

Ben Harris, Guyra Shire Council 

David Steller, Armidale Dumaresq Council 

  WORKSHOP 4: COUNCILLORS WORKSHOP– 2 MARCH 2009 

Stephen Gow, Armidale Dumaresq Council 

Hans Hietbrink, Guyra Shire Council 

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David Cushway, Guyra Shire Council 

Herman Beyersdorf, Armidale Dumaresq Council 

Ron Filmer, Uralla Shire Council 

Mark Dusting, Uralla Shire Council 

Michael Pearce, Uralla Shire Council 

Isabel Strutt, Uralla Shire Council 

Bruce Whan, Armidale Dumaresq Council 

Jim Maher, Armidale Dumaresq Council 

Chris Halligan Armidale Dumaresq Council 

Paul Harmer, Armidale Dumaresq Council 

Peter Ducat, Armidale Dumaresq Council 

Scott Schmutter, Walcha Council 

Stephen McCoy, NEWA 

Colin Gadd, Armidale Dumaresq Council 

Rob Richardson, Armidale Dumresq Council 

Kevin Ward, Uralla Shire Council 

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Appendix C Extract from Adapting to Climate Change, A Queensland Local Government Guide