NCEP UCAR Review (updated version from AMS presentation)
-
Upload
raymond-conrad -
Category
Documents
-
view
17 -
download
1
description
Transcript of NCEP UCAR Review (updated version from AMS presentation)
NCEP UCAR Review(updated version from AMS presentation)
Dr. Louis W. Uccellini
Director, National Centers for Environmental Prediction
October 6, 2009
“Where America’s Climate, Weather, Ocean and Space Weather Services Begin”
2
Overview
• Motivation for Review• Define NCEP
– Organization and Staff– Introduce Office of Director– Strategic Alignment with Seamless Suite of Products– Collaborative Efforts– Service/Science Linkage: Test Beds
• NCEP Budget/Planning Process• Large Projects• R2O• Forces for Change• Summary
3
Motivation for Review
• NCEP is considered a “National Resource” and a “National Treasure”…– Needs to be treated as such– Outside review is essential
• Last overall review spanned a five year period between 1997-2002
• NCEP has been aggressive in responding to reviews
• Time is now to initiate a new cycle in the review process– Prefer reviewing NCEP in its entirety; rather than sequential
center by center reviews
4
Why Now?
• We Are at a Strategic Crossroad– Some who believe we should expand the predictive
capabilities from the traditional weather and climate into new areas (e.g., ecosystems)
– Others feel we should stick to our core abilities (i.e., weather and short-term climate)
• We Have a New Strategic Plan– Based on internal and external input
– Based on new approaches • Multi-model ensembles, community modeling, etc.
• We Are Moving Into a New Facility• We Are Entering a New Era
5
Define NCEP
6
NCEP Supports the NOAA Seamless Suite of Climate Weather and Ocean Products
Space Weather Prediction CenterAviation Weather Center NCEP Central Operations
Climate Prediction Center Environmental Modeling Center Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Ocean Prediction Center
Tropical Prediction Center
Vision: The Nation’s trusted source, first alert and preferred partner for environmental prediction services
Organization: Central component of NOAA’s National Weather Service
Mission: NCEP delivers science-based environmental predictions to the nation and the global community. We collaborate with partners and customers to produce reliable, timely, and accurate analyses, guidance, forecasts and warnings for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national economy.
Storm Prediction Center
Total FTE: 431167 Contractors/61 Visitors
5 NOAA Corps
Keesha JohnsonSupporting Secretary
Barbara Eubanks Secretary
Sue PerrottaAdministrative Officer
NCEP Office of Director
Louis UccelliniDirector
Lauren MoroneOperations Officer
Kim MontgomeryBudget Officer
Mark MoranChief Science Officer
Dennis StaleyExecutive Officer
Adena FritzAsset Manager
9
Director Dr. Louis W. Uccellini
Secretary Barbara Eubanks Admin Support for Director, Coordinate Director’s Calendar, Correspondence, Time & Attendance, Travel Point OC, Tours/Visits.
Secretary Keesha Johnson Admin Support for Office of Director
Executive Officer Dennis StaleyAdvisor to Director, Executive Oversight, Overall Planning and Financial Management, Strategic Planning, Policy, NWSEO/Employee Relations.
Chief Science Officer Commander Mark MoranInteragency and International Coordination, Planning and Execution of Science Activities, Data Collection Requirements, HPC Resource Allocation Council
Operations Officer Lauren MoroneAnnual Operating Plan Milestones, Performance Measures, Weekly/Monthly Reports, Training, Aviation, Directives, Presentations
Administrative Officer Susan C. PerrottaPersonnel, Security, Facilities, Safety, Admin Procedures, EEO, NCEP Table of Organization, OD Office Purchasing
Budget Officer Kim MontgomeryBudget Execution, Budget Operating Plans, Reimbursable Agreements, Line Office Transfers, NCEP Technical Operating Plan
Asset Manager Adena FritzAsset Management, Property Custodian, Designated Agency Representative.
Chief Admin Officer, JCSDA
Vacant
NCEP Office of Director
10
Introduce Office of Director
11
Climate/WeatherLinkage
Week 2 Hazards Assessment
Forecast Forecast UncertaintyUncertaintyForecast Forecast UncertaintyUncertainty
MinutesMinutes
HoursHours
DaysDays
1 Week1 Week
2 Week2 Week
MonthsMonths
SeasonsSeasons
YearsYears
NOAA Seamless Suite of ForecastProducts Spanning Climate and Weather
CPC
Fo
reca
st
Lea
d T
ime
Fo
reca
st
Lea
d T
ime
Warnings & Alert Warnings & Alert CoordinationCoordination
WatchesWatches
ForecastsForecasts
Threats Assessments
GuidanceGuidance
OutlookOutlook
Benefits
TPCOPCHPC
SWPCAWCSPC
Service Center Perspective
Winter Weather Desk Days 1-3Tropical Storms to Day 5Severe Weather to Day 8
Fire Weather Outlooks to Day 8 :
NDFD, Days 4 -7
6-10 Day ForecastM
arit
ime
Ma
ritim
eM
arit
ime
Ma
ritim
e
Life
& P
rop
ert
yL
ife &
Pro
pe
rty
Life
& P
rop
ert
yL
ife &
Pro
pe
rty
Sp
ace
Op
era
tion
sS
pa
ce O
pe
ratio
ns
Sp
ace
Op
era
tion
sS
pa
ce O
pe
ratio
ns
Re
cre
atio
nR
ecr
ea
tion
Re
cre
atio
nR
ecr
ea
tion
Eco
syst
em
Eco
syst
em
Eco
syst
em
Eco
syst
em
En
viro
nm
en
tE
nvi
ron
me
nt
En
viro
nm
en
tE
nvi
ron
me
nt
Em
erg
en
cy M
gm
t E
me
rge
ncy
Mg
mt
Em
erg
en
cy M
gm
t E
me
rge
ncy
Mg
mt
Ag
ricu
lture
Ag
ricu
lture
Ag
ricu
lture
Ag
ricu
lture
Re
serv
oir
Co
ntr
ol
Re
serv
oir
Co
ntr
ol
Re
serv
oir
Co
ntr
ol
Re
serv
oir
Co
ntr
ol
En
erg
y P
lan
nin
gE
ne
rgy
Pla
nn
ing
En
erg
y P
lan
nin
gE
ne
rgy
Pla
nn
ing
Co
mm
erc
eC
om
me
rce
Co
mm
erc
eC
om
me
rce
Hyd
rop
ow
er
Hyd
rop
ow
er
Hyd
rop
ow
er
Hyd
rop
ow
er
Fire
We
ath
er
Fire
We
ath
er
Fire
We
ath
er
Fire
We
ath
er
He
alth
He
alth
He
alth
He
alth
Avi
atio
nA
via
tion
Avi
atio
nA
via
tion
Seasonal Predictions
12
Climate/WeatherLinkage
Forecast Forecast UncertaintyUncertaintyForecast Forecast UncertaintyUncertainty
MinutesMinutes
HoursHours
DaysDays
1 Week1 Week
2 Week2 Week
MonthsMonths
SeasonsSeasons
YearsYears
NWS Seamless Suite of ForecastProducts Spanning Climate and Weather
North American Ensemble Forecast System
Climate Forecast System*
Fo
reca
st
Lea
d T
ime
Fo
reca
st
Lea
d T
ime
Warnings & Alert Warnings & Alert CoordinationCoordination
WatchesWatches
ForecastsForecasts
Threats Assessments
GuidanceGuidance
OutlookOutlook
Benefits
Short-Range Ensemble Forecast Ocean Model
Hurricane Models
Global Forecast System
North American ForecastRapid Update Cycle for Aviation
Dispersion Models for DHS-GFDL -WRF
NCEP Model Perspective
Ma
ritim
eM
arit
ime
Ma
ritim
eM
arit
ime
Life
& P
rop
ert
yL
ife &
Pro
pe
rty
Life
& P
rop
ert
yL
ife &
Pro
pe
rty
Sp
ace
Op
era
tion
sS
pa
ce O
pe
ratio
ns
Sp
ace
Op
era
tion
sS
pa
ce O
pe
ratio
ns
Re
cre
atio
nR
ecr
ea
tion
Re
cre
atio
nR
ecr
ea
tion
Eco
syst
em
Eco
syst
em
Eco
syst
em
Eco
syst
em
En
viro
nm
en
tE
nvi
ron
me
nt
En
viro
nm
en
tE
nvi
ron
me
nt
Em
erg
en
cy M
gm
t E
me
rge
ncy
Mg
mt
Em
erg
en
cy M
gm
t E
me
rge
ncy
Mg
mt
Ag
ricu
lture
Ag
ricu
lture
Ag
ricu
lture
Ag
ricu
lture
Re
serv
oir
Co
ntr
ol
Re
serv
oir
Co
ntr
ol
Re
serv
oir
Co
ntr
ol
Re
serv
oir
Co
ntr
ol
En
erg
y P
lan
nin
gE
ne
rgy
Pla
nn
ing
En
erg
y P
lan
nin
gE
ne
rgy
Pla
nn
ing
Co
mm
erc
eC
om
me
rce
Co
mm
erc
eC
om
me
rce
Hyd
rop
ow
er
Hyd
rop
ow
er
Hyd
rop
ow
er
Hyd
rop
ow
er
Fire
We
ath
er
Fire
We
ath
er
Fire
We
ath
er
Fire
We
ath
er
He
alth
He
alth
He
alth
He
alth
Avi
atio
nA
via
tion
Avi
atio
nA
via
tion
13
Increasing Collaboration Within NCEP Service Centers and the NWS
• AWC/SPC/CWSUs – CCFP
• SPC/WFO– Watch “by county”
• HPC/WFO– Winter Weather Desks– Medium Range: Days 4-7/NDFD
• TPC/HPC/WFO– Hurricane “Hot Line”
• AWC/WFO/CWSU– Collaborative Convective Forecast
Product• CPC/SPC/HPC Regions/WFO/RFC
– Hazard Assessment– Seasonal outlooks/CTB
• OPC/TPC/WFO– Near shore High seas
• HPC-TPC-OPC-AR-PR– Unified Surface Analysis!
• SWPC/AWC– Solar/Aviation Products
14
Model Assessment: Engaging the Outside Community
• EMC Planning Meeting (each December)– SSD Chiefs, NCEP Service Center reps and “outside”
participants attend
– Review assessments
– Provide priorities for current and next fiscal year
– Influence next year’s implementations
• Regions and outside participants have opportunity to assess all implementations– Participants decide which to take part in
15
Model Assessment: Engaging the Outside Community
• Expanded participation during recent years– NCEP Centers– NWS Regions– University Community– Private Sector
• Mailing list maintained for notifications of upcoming major changes
• Notification is provided to mailing list of upcoming evaluation periods including due dates
• Parallel data sets are made available to those who agree to participate
• Completed evaluations submitted by due date are used as input to decision on implementation
16
Management Support for Increasing NWS Interactions with NCEP
• Ongoing support for including regional view in new NCEP Strategic Plan
• Visiting forecaster program• 9 forecasters visited HPC in 2008
• Considering visiting forecast program for OPC
• Spring experiment in Norman– Active inclusion of field forecasters
Examples:
17
• EMC WRF Developmental Test Center, Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation
• CPC Climate Test Bed
• TPC Joint Hurricane Test Bed
• HPC Hydrometeorological Test Bed
• SPC Hazardous Weather Test Bed with NSSL
• SWPC Space Weather Prediction Test Bed (with AFWA)
• AWC Aviation Weather Test Bed (Being developed)
• OPC linked with EMC’s Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch
Test BedsService – Science Linkage with the Outside Community
18
Budget / Planning Process
19
Internal Planning ProcessCentered Around NOAA’s PPBES
NOAA Strategic Plan
NWS Strategic Plan
NCEP Strategic Plan
NCEP Operating Plan
NCEP Technical Operating Plan
Center Executive Summaries
Individual Center Multi-Yr Implementation Plans
Individual Performance Plans
20
NCEP Technical Operating PlansMapping Resources to Goals
GPRA
NWS GOALS
NCEP GOALS(Strategic Goals)
KEY DELIVERABLES
MILESTONES
BUDGET ALLOCATION
ANNUAL OPERATING PLAN
EXECUTIVESUMMARIES
NTOPELEMENTS
NOAA GOALS
NCEP GOALS(Strategic Goals)
21
Performance MeasuresGoals/ObjectivesMilestonesResources ($$/People)
NCEP Technical Operating Plan (NTOP)
Internal Planning Timeline
Nov.Dec.
LateSept.
MidSept
Early Sept. Aug.
Apr.NCOReview
Dec.EMCReview
NTOPS1st draft
Final NTOPWhen Budgetis Allocated
ExecutiveSummary
AnnualOperating
Plan
Identify Agency
Milestones
Internal CoordinationCorporate Board Planning Meeting
Question: How Are We Mapping This NTOP Process Into Individual Performance Plans?
22
BudgetHistorical Base Funding (Direct Appropriation)
020406080
100120140
Fiscal Year
$ in
Mill
ions
* Another $10-$15M
Other Funding Sources
23
Climate
Weather & Water
Commerce & Transportation
Ecosystems
Mission Support
6%CPC
11%AWCOPC
45%HPC, SPC, TPC, SWPC, NCO OR&F
38%EMC, NCO Supercomputing
*
* Emerging Area
• EMC and NCO Supercomputing Recently Moved to NOAA Mission Support
• NCEP working on Ecosystem White Paper with NOS, OAR and other NOAA components to initiate participation in ecosystem goal
% of NCEP BudgetContributing to NOAA Strategic Plan Goals
24
Large Projects
25
Large Projects
• New Building • Computer Upgrade • AWIPS2 Transition• NEMS• Multi-model ensembles
– For extreme events, e.g., severe and winter wx
• Satellite data assimilation through JCSDA
• “Decision Support”
• HFIP / WRF-DTC• CFS Upgrade:
Reanalysis/Reforecast• Global HYCOM (w/Navy)• Preparing for Solar Max with
Reorganized SWPC• NextGen Air Transportation
System Modernization• OCONUS support• Air Quality
26
NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction
• Defined requirements for 268,762 RSF
• Includes housing 800+ Federal employees, contractors, and visiting scientists • 5 NCEP Centers
• NESDIS research and satellite services
• OAR Air Resources Laboratory
• Includes 40 spaces for research community
Construction Start 09-May-07
Move Start Est. 2011
Move Complete Est. 2011
Revised Construction Schedule
Main Entrance
Main Entrance
Auditorium
December, 2008
NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction
Court Yard
Court Yard
December, 2007
August, 2009
28
NOAA Center for Weather and
Climate Prediction
NORTH
Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center
(in background)
29
R2O
30
NOAA is working on:
1. Research to Operations Policy (complete)
2. An overarching view of NOAA's research and development that provides criteria for research location
3. A better understanding of how to apportion resource allocations
NOAA Research and Development Funnel
31
Launch List – Model Implementation Process
EMCNCO
R&D Operations Delivery
Criteria
Transition from Research to Operations
Requirements
EMC
Schematics in the Model Transition Process
OPS Life cycleSupport
Service Centers
NOAAResearch
Concept of Operations
ServiceCenters
User
Ob
serv
atio
n
Sys
tem
FieldOffices
Effort
EMC and NCO have critical roles in the transition from NOAA R&D to operations
Other Agencies&
International
Forecast benefits, Efficiency, IT Compatibility, Sustainability
ASI, COLA,ARCS
Operations to Research
Test BedsJCSDA
CTBWRF DTC
JHT
32
NCEP
R2O
1. Large “volume” of R&D, funded through AOs, Agency Labs…
2. Smaller set of R&D products suitable for operations. 3. Systematic transition steps Research-to-Operations (R2O).
Deliver skill-optimized forecast products founded on CTB-based innovation and& customer
feedback; Bring in customer requests
4. Systematic transition steps Operations-to-Applications (O2A).
5. Delivery of products to the
diverse community and customer
feedback
Applying the “Funnel” to the Transition ProcessApplying the “Funnel” to the Transition Process
2
NCEPis well
positionedto provide an operational
infra-structure for
the transition processes
User Community
R&D Community
OPERATIONS
1
3
EMCCFS
5
4
O2A
CTB
CPC
CTB role: facilitate transitions for the CPC specific product range (6-10 day, week 2, monthly, seasonal)
O2R
R2O
33
Increases in skill of CPC official outlooks: 20% or more (O’Lenic et al 07)
Increases in skill of CPC official outlooks: 20% or more (O’Lenic et al 07)
CTB Spun up
(0.5 Month Lead – 4 Year Running Average vs. GPRA Goal) (0.5 Month Lead – 4 Year Running Average vs. GPRA Goal)
CFS (v1.0) implemented
FY09 Goal: 2048-mo Running Mean: 27FY10 Goal: 21Upward Adjustments planned, but depend on implementation time line for CFS v2, etc.
FY09 Goal: 2048-mo Running Mean: 27FY10 Goal: 21Upward Adjustments planned, but depend on implementation time line for CFS v2, etc.
Climate Prediction Advances at NCEP (CFS / CTB) Contributed to improved Forecast Skill
Climate Prediction Advances at NCEP (CFS / CTB) Contributed to improved Forecast Skill
GPRA Performance Measure
34
• Increasing emphasis on multi-model ensemble approaches that build on the NCEP model suite; run at highest possible resolution – SREF– NAEFS– Climate Forecast System/Service
• Entering the NPOESS era– More rapid access to
hyperspectral data– Increasing IT security: Address
related vulnerabilities
• All models run as coupled Earth system models within ESMF– Models run concurrently – Applied to Ecosystems, Health…….– Community Model Approach (NUOPC;WRF)
• AWIPS2 – Converging NWS applications software systems
Forces for Change
Model Region 1
Model Region 2
Global/Regional Model Domain
ESMF-based System
35
Summary• NCEP is:
– Strategically aligned with NOAA’s “seamless suite” of products from the “Sun to the Sea”
– Working with NOAA on expanded responsibilities (e.g, oceans air and water quality, ecology,…); success is based on interdisciplinary approach
– A critical transition agent in the NOAA “research to operations” process involving observations, data assimilation, modeling, and service delivery
– Actively pursuing opportunities for collaboration in research, transition to operations and operational production and delivery of services (both nationally and internationally)
– Still consider NCEP to be an underutilized entity by the research and operational communities