NC STATE UNIVERSITY Matthew D. Parker North Carolina State Univ. Raleigh, NC CSTAR workshop:...
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Transcript of NC STATE UNIVERSITY Matthew D. Parker North Carolina State Univ. Raleigh, NC CSTAR workshop:...
NC STATE UNIVERSITY
Matthew D. ParkerNorth Carolina State Univ.
Raleigh, NC
CSTAR workshop: High-shear, low-CAPE (“HSLC”)
tornadoes/sig. severe introduction
16 November 2012
individual report influence - 160 km radius
Mean Tornado Environment: ML CAPE & 0-6 km Shear
2004-2005: 3277 tornado reports | 344 tornado days
Max MLCAPE Over Plains
Lower MLCAPE and Stronger Shear
courtesy: Steve Weiss
ML CAPE (J/kg, color fill), 0-6 km Shear (kt, blue barbs) (year=2004-2005, month=ALL)
ML CAPE ≥ 2000 J kg -1 | 0-6 km Shear ≥ 35 kt | ML CIN ≥ - 100 J kg -1
Integrated 2003 - 2006 “environment hours” High CAPE; Strong Shear; Moderate CIN
Integrated 2003 - 2006 “environment hours” High CAPE; High Shear; Moderate CIN
Max 240 hr or 60 hr/yr
courtesy: Steve Weiss
ML CAPE ≤ 1000 J kg -1 | 0-6 km Shear ≥ 35 kt | 0-1 km Shear ≥ 20 kt ML LCL ≤ 1000 m | ML CIN ≥ - 100 J kg -1
Integrated 2003 - 2006 “environment hours” Low CAPE; High Shear; Low LCL; Mod. CIN
Max 480 hr or 120 hr/yr
courtesy: Steve Weiss
High CAPE | Strong Shear Low CAPE | Strong Shear
• 26% of F2+ tornadoes
• local axis 30-60 hr/year
• 22% of F2+ tornadoes
• widespread 80-120 hr/year
48% of all F2+ tornadoes
courtesy: Steve Weiss
Basic parameters:
• Monthly conference calls for planning, O2R/R2O, etc.
• By consensus, HSLC is considered to be: 0-6 km shear > 35 kts and SBCAPE <
500 J.kg
• By consensus, landfalling TC cases are omitted
• Initial “training dataset” of regional cases identified by NWS collaborators Baseline for radar and parameter studies Best events singled out for detailed NWS case
studies
• Additional data from SPC to supplement our work Mesoanalysis data for detailed case studies
(delivered online for use in Google Earth) Relational database for all reports (not just the
collaborator-identified cases)
Specific aims (end products):
• Quantification of significant differences in ingredients for events vs. nulls; a new composite parameter idealized for HSLC (Sherburn lead)
• Statistical assessment of radar signatures (convective mode, trackable mesovortices, other signatures like broken-S) associated with events vs. nulls (Davis lead)
• Stats for groupings of interest: day vs. night, summer vs. winter, near vs. far from radar, S.E. U.S. vs. other regions, etc. (both projects)
• A population of thorough case studies (events and nulls) whose environments and radar signatures will be compared to (and motivate) the longitudinal environmental and radar statistics (Moore, Lane, Coleman team leaders)