NC Mortgage Trends - Prosperity Unlimited · NC Mortgage Trends Matthew Martin, Ph.D. Regional...
Transcript of NC Mortgage Trends - Prosperity Unlimited · NC Mortgage Trends Matthew Martin, Ph.D. Regional...
NC Mortgage TrendsMatthew Martin, Ph.D.
Regional Economist
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond
Confidential Information 2
The National Picture: 2007 Foreclosures
Source: Realtytrac
Confidential Information 3
National Mortgage Delinquency Rates
Seriously Delinquent Mortgages
0
5
10
15
20
25
1998:Q1 2000:Q1 2002:Q1 2004:Q1 2006:Q1 2008:Q1
0
5
10
15
20
25
Subprime Fixed Rate Mortgage
Subprime Adjustable Rate Mortgage
Prime Fixed Rate Mortgage
Prime Adjustable Rate Mortgage
Percent, NSA Percent, NSA
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association/Haver Analytics
Note: Serious delinquencies are loans 90+ days past due plus those in the process of foreclosure.
The National Picture: Delinquencies
Confidential Information 4
The National Picture: 2/28 Default Rates
Source: Federal Reserve Board calculations using Loan Performance data
Confidential Information 5
The National Picture: Cumulative Defaults
Cumulative Default Rates by Vintage
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
0.14
0.16
0.18
10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Time in months
2007
20062005
2004
2003
2002
2001
Source: Federal Reserve Board calculations using Loan Performance data
Confidential Information 6
Percent Full Documentation ABS 2_28
0
20
40
60
80
100
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Combined LTV ABS 2_28
70
75
80
85
90
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Source: Federal Reserve Board calculations using Loan Performance data
Factor #1: Underwriting
Note: Fixed rate subprimes had better underwriting. (Not shown.)
Important because it means that ARMs not inherently riskier.
Confidential Information 7
Factor #2: House Prices
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
OFHEO purchase-onlyS&P/Case-Shiller National S&P/Case-Shiller 10-city
Year-to-year percent change, NSA
Source: S&P/Case-Shiller, OFHEO, Haver Analytics
Year-to-year percent change, NSA
Confidential Information 8
7.431.72West Virginia
13.075.59National
8.724.08Virginia
11.083.75South Carolina
7.433.34North Carolina
8.556.08Maryland
10.676.09Washington, DC
% in Foreclosure
or REO
% of Owner Occupied
Houses that have
Subprime loans
7.431.72West Virginia
13.075.59National
8.724.08Virginia
11.083.75South Carolina
7.433.34North Carolina
8.556.08Maryland
10.676.09Washington, DC
% in Foreclosure
or REO
% of Owner Occupied
Houses that have
Subprime loans
Fifth District Subprime Summary
Confidential Information 9
North Carolina Delinquencies
Confidential Information 10
North Carolina Foreclosures
Confidential Information 11
North Carolina Foreclosures
Confidential Information 12
Subprime Mortgages by MSA
Confidential Information 13
North Carolina: Number of Subprime Mortgages
Confidential Information 14
North Carolina: Percentage of Owner-Occupied
Homes with Subprime Mortgages
Confidential Information 15
North Carolina: % of Owner-Occupied Homes with
Subprime Mortgages 90+ days Delinquent
Confidential Information 16
North Carolina: % of Owner-Occupied Homes with
Subprime Mortgages in Foreclosure or REO
Confidential Information 17
North Carolina House Price Growth
Confidential Information 18
North Carolina House Price Growth
Confidential Information 19
North Carolina: Residential Permits
North Carolina
-40.0
-20.0
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
YoY %
Chg
U.S. North Carolina
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Confidential Information 24
Charlotte House Price Growth
Confidential Information 25
Charlotte House Price Growth
Charlotte, NC
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
YoY %
Chg
U.S. Charlotte, NC
Confidential Information 26
Charlotte Residential Permits
Charlotte, NC
-70.0-60.0-50.0-40.0-30.0-20.0-10.0
0.010.020.030.040.0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
YoY %
Chg
U.S. Charlotte, NC
Confidential Information 27
North Carolina Payroll Employment Growth
North Carolina
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
YoY %
Chg
U.S. North Carolina
Confidential Information 28
North Carolina Unemployment Rate
North Carolina
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Percent
U.S. North Carolina
Addendum: Alt-A Trends
Confidential Information 30
2.620.33West Virginia
4.202.37National
4.842.45Virginia
2.820.97South Carolina
1.750.95North Carolina
2.833.07Maryland
2.325.50Washington, DC
% in Foreclosure
or REO
% of Owner Occupied
Houses that have
Alt-A loans
2.620.33West Virginia
4.202.37National
4.842.45Virginia
2.820.97South Carolina
1.750.95North Carolina
2.833.07Maryland
2.325.50Washington, DC
% in Foreclosure
or REO
% of Owner Occupied
Houses that have
Alt-A loans
Fifth District Alt-A Summary
Confidential Information 31
Alt-A Mortgages by MSA
Confidential Information 32
North Carolina: Number of Alt-A Mortgages
Confidential Information 33
North Carolina: % of Alt-A Mortgages That Are
Non-Owner Occupied
Confidential Information 34
North Carolina: Percentage of Owner-Occupied
Homes with Alt-A Mortgages
Confidential Information 35
North Carolina: % of Owner-Occupied Homes with
Alt-A Mortgages 90+ days Delinquent
Confidential Information 36
North Carolina: % of Owner-Occupied Homes with
Alt-A Mortgages in Foreclosure or REO