NBS Energy Data Revisions

8/8/2019 NBS Energy Data Revisions

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Initial Assessment of NBS Energy Data Revisions

Nathaniel Aden

LBNL China Energy Group

September 2010

In July 2010, China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) published revised energy production,consumption, and intensity data covering the years 1996 to 2008.

1These numbers superseded

a 2005 revision that covered energy data from 1998 to 2003. Figure 1 illustrates the revisions

to total primary energy use; the dotted line shows data from the 2005 revision and data

published in subsequent statistical yearbooks through 2009. The largest annual revision was an

addition of 149 million tonnes coal equivalent (Mtce) total primary energy consumption in 2007.

The average annual upward revision was 5% between 2000 and 2008.

Figure 1: China Total Primary Energy Consumption (1990-2008)

A major driver of the upward energy revisions was coal use and production. Figure 2 illustrates

the revision of Chinese domestic coal production data in 2005 and 2010. Year 2000 coal

production was upwardly revised by 300 million tonnes in 2005 and raised by an additional 85million tonnes in 2010. From 2004 through 2007, the average annual upward revision of coal

production was 7%.

1NBS. 2010. China Energy Statistical Yearbook 2009. Beijing: China Statistics Press.

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500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

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1990 1994 1998 2002 2006

Total

PrimaryEnergyUse(mtce)

2010 Revised Primary Energy Use

Original Primary Energy Use


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Figure 2: China Coal Production Data Revisions (1996-2008)

What drove the upward revision of Chinese coal production data? Industry consumed more

coal than initially estimated. Figure 3 shows revisions of industry final coal use between 1996

and 2008. The first year of revisions represent an anomaly insofar as industry total final coal

use was actually reduced. Industry final coal use in 2007 was raised by 130 million tonnes.

Figure 3: China Industry Final Coal Consumption Data Revisions (1996-2008)

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1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

CoalProduction(mt)

Original Data

2005 Revision

2010 Revision

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1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

IndustryFinalCoalUse(mt)

2010 Revision2005 Revision

Original data


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The 2010 statistical revisions extended from total primary energy to industry sub-sector final

energy use. In 2008, the steel sector accounted for 12% of industry final coal consumption.

Figure 4 shows the upward revision of China's steel sector final energy use data. Between 2000

and 2007, steel sector final energy use was upwardly revised by an average of 6%. Industry

production data were not included in the 2010 revisions, thereby implying higher values for

physical energy intensity of production in China.

Figure 4: Steel Sector Total Final Energy Use (1996-2008)

Industrial final coal combustion accounted for the largest share of China's energy use revisions.

However, other sectors' final coal use, coal transformation use (primarily for electricity), and

other fuel use data were also revised. Total final oil consumption data, for example, were

adjusted very slightly, while the structure of usage has undergone extensive revisions. The re-

allocation has increased transport and industry oil consumption at the expense of other end

uses; Figure 5 shows the average 10% increase of transport primary energy use between 2000

and 2008. Coal transformation revisions were sporadic (7 of 12 years had adjustments) and

mostly downward.

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1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

FinalEnergyUse

(mtce)

2010 Revision

Original/2005


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Figure 5: Transport Sector Primary Energy Use (1995-2008)

Note: the NBS energy balance category includes "Transport, Storage & Post"

The growth of transport total primary energy use reflects the extensive sectoral re-allocation of

final oil use in the 2009 CESY. In 2005, for example, total final oil use was upwardly revised by

only 0.02 million tonnes. However, the sectoral allocation of 2005 final oil use changed

extensively with transportation increasing by 10 mt and residential increasing by 5 mt oil while

agriculture diminished by 6 mt, industry by 2 mt, commercial buildings by 5 mt, and "other" by

1 mt. These re-allocations suggest extensive boundary revisions to NBS final energy use

categories.

Figure 6: Transport Final Consumption of Petroleum Products (1996-2008)

Note: the NBS energy balance category includes "Transport, Storage, Postal & Telecommunications Services"

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1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007

TotalPrimaryEnergyUse(m

tce) 2010 revision

2005/original data

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etroleumP

roductUse(mt)

2010 Revision

2005 Revision/Original


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The 2010 energy revisions have shown increased industry and transport energy use and coal

production compared to earlier data. One effect of these revisions is to make China's total

primary energy production more carbon dioxide intensive. Figure 7 shows the effect of recent

data revisions on the carbon dioxide intensiveness of primary energy production; emissions

were calculated on the basis of Revised 1996 IPCC reference values. Average carbon-

intensiveness of primary energy production in China was revised upwards by an average of 1%between 2000 and 2008 due to the diminished share of non-fossil energy production in the

revised data.

Figure 7: Carbon Dioxide Intensiveness of Chinese Primary Energy Production (1990-2008)

Note: Y-axis not zero scaled; based on fossil fuel combustion emission coefficients from IPCC.

GDP growth figures in the recently released China Energy Statistical Yearbook (CESY) were also

revised for the period from 2005-2008 when compared with the 2009 China Statistical

Yearbook (CSYB), which was published in September 2009. Figure 8 shows the total primary

energy use for each unit of GDP (measured in constant year 2005 RMB). Energy and GDP data

revisions raised earlier energy intensity of GDP while leaving the 2008 level at 113 grams coalequivalent per RMB.

2

2The CESY 2009 lists energy intensiveness of GDP as 112 gce/2005 RMB; the difference is assumed to be due to

rounding errors.

2.75

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2.95

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

C

arbonIntensivenessofEnergy(mt

CO2/mtce) 2010 revision

2009 CSYB


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Figure 8: Energy Intensity of GDP Data Revisions (1990-2008)

The effect of the 2010 energy and GDP revisions on energy intensity is to move China closer to

achieving its Eleventh Five Year Plan target of 20% reduction between 2005 and 2010. Table 1

shows the annual and cumulative reductions of energy intensity of GDP using original and

revised energy and GDP data--the revisions effectively added 4.7 percentage points to the

cumulative reductions.

Table 1: Annual and Cumulative Reductions of Energy Intensity of GDP (2006-2008)

This initial and limited assessment of China's energy statistical revisions has found the changes

and implications to be significant. Total Chinese primary energy use was revised upward for allyears between 1998 and 2008. This was largely due to upwardly revised industry coal

combustion, which also helped to account for an overall upward shift in the carbon

intensiveness of Chinese energy production. Sub-sector final energy use data were also revised,

though the changes were often not visible at a total final energy use level. Perhaps most

importantly for Chinese policy makers, the 2010 energy revisions brought the country closer to

achieving its energy intensity reduction targets. More work remains to be done for

understanding the full implications of China energy data revisions.

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1990 1995 2000 2005

EIofGDP(gce/2005RMB)

2010 revision

2009 CSYB

2010 Revision Original Data

2006 2.7% 1.8%

2007 5.0% 4.6%

2008 5.2% 1.5%

2005-2008 12.5% 7.7%

EI Reduction

NBS Energy Data Revisions

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