Navy Tropical

Meteorology

Research

Dr. Ronald J. Ferek, ONR

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• Fleet priority since WWII• Establishment of JTWC in 1959• ONR program thrust since 1980 • 1984: goal set by CINCPACFLT - “Reduce 72h track error to 150nm”

• Late 1980’s-AF cut recon in W. Pacific- Emphasis on quantitative satellite observations; mitigated impact

of the loss of in-situ data

• Previous (1990’s) emphasis on track - Met 1984 goal in 2002

• Recent program focus - Coupling between ocean & atmosphere (CBLAST DRI)

- Storm-scale processes and ocean impact (two new DRI’s: TCS-08, ITOP)

History and Recent Program Focus

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• TCS-08: “The Impact of Storm-Scale Processes on the Predictability of Western Pacific Typhoons”– Problem: Cannot predict the evolution of tropical disturbances

over the western Pacific (formation, intensity changes, outer wind structure, etc.)

– Collab. with THORPEX Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (T-PARC)• Collaboration between ONR, NRL, NSF, USAF, ARL, NAVOCEANO, and EU,

JMA, CMA, NTU, KMA, CNES, DLR, etc. as part of the T-PARC project

• ITOP: “Characterizing Impact Of Typhoons On The Western Pacific Ocean”– Focus on improved prediction of TC impact on ocean waves &

mixed layer

– Improve representation of wave-induced mixing in upper ocean

Recent TC Research Initiatives

Navy Man-Years vs. Detailed Research

4

Intensity / Structure

Track Genesis QPF Surge

[Seasonal]

Model Development

Observations

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Navy Man-Years vs Research Category

59%

36%

5%

Total Man-Years: 50

Navy Man-Years Mapped to JTWC Priorities

Intensity

Change

Storm Surge

Observations

Genesis

Size/Structure

Stat Aids

Fcst Efficiency

Track Fcst

Wind Analysis

Model Res vs

Ensembles

QPFRadar/Sat. Data

Seasonal Progs

SST Gradients

TC Research Aligned with Operational Priorities

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• Track errors will continue to improve as global model skill increases- Assimilation of new sources of remote sensing data should help,

as will ocean observing system

- Profiling floats/drifters should be considered as part of routine TC recon.

• Current intensity prediction lacks skill:- Need to treat as a coupled problem

• A coupled atmosphere/wave/ocean mesoscale modeling system at sub-10km resolution is feasible- Improved understanding of heat, moisture and momentum fluxes

bridged a significant knowledge gap

- Needed to address genesis, intensity changes, structure and asymmetries, ocean impacts and improved wave/surge prediction

Future Research Directions

8

Summary

• Navy has a long-standing history of tropical meteorology research – Basic > Applied– Topics focused on Naval requirements– Initiative process emphasizes research on important knowledge

gaps

• Current Navy emphasis– Structure (wind field / sea height), genesis, intensity changes,

physics coupled with the ocean– Emphasis on remote sensing vs. in-situ observing technologies– Exploring the use of UUV’s and autonomous vehicles for ocean

observing– High-resolution coupled mesoscale model (COAMPS-TC) for

structure and intensity prediction