Navigation Market Status and Outlook
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Transcript of Navigation Market Status and Outlook
Navigation Market Status and Outlook
Frost & Sullivan White Paper
December 2010
Table of Contents
Market Status & Developments – North AmericaI
III Voice of Consumer on Apps and HMI - Europe
2
IV Conclusions
Market Status & Developments, North America
3
Market Overview – Fastest Growing Segment is Mobile Navigation
NA Navigation Market – Market Size by Product Segment (North America), 2009-2016
4
Source: Frost & Sullivan
• PND market in NA is expected to decrease to about 13 Million units in 2016, representing a declining CAGR of 4% from 2009. This decrease in PND market can be largely attributed to the fact that navigation is becoming a commodity in the Smartphone market (e.g. Google and Nokia free Navigation service)
Technology Roadmap: Navigation Systems (North America)
2004 2008 2012 2015
Serv
ices
Serv
ices
Co
nte
nt
Co
nte
nt
TrafficTraffic
DeliveryDelivery
Real-TimeReal-Time PredictivePredictive
AM/FM RadioAM/FM Radio
HistoricalHistorical
RDS-TMC >>>Satellite RadioRDS-TMC >>>Satellite Radio
HD Radio, MSN Direct, CellularHD Radio, MSN Direct, Cellular
Wi-FiWi-Fi
2D View2D View
5
Co
nte
nt
Co
nte
nt
Map ViewMap View
Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2008. Source: Frost & Sullivan
2D View2D View
2.5D View2.5D View
3D View3D View
Hard
ware
Hard
ware
NavigationNavigation
Media StorageMedia Storage
Processor Memory
Processor Memory
DVD-ROMDVD-ROM
Hard Disk Drive (HDD)Hard Disk Drive (HDD)CD-ROMCD-ROM
400 MHz, 32-bit RISC, 64 MB RAM400 MHz, 32-bit RISC, 64 MB RAM
600 MHz, 32-bit RISC, 128 MB RAM600 MHz, 32-bit RISC, 128 MB RAM
Dynamic Real-Time NavigationDynamic Real-Time Navigation
Dynamic / Predictive NavigationDynamic / Predictive NavigationStatic NavigationStatic Navigation
Total Active Apps: 300,000+
Navigation Apps: 6373 (2.0%)
App Store - Close to 6500 Apps on Apple App Store That Cater to Car Navigation
Pandora is the second most important brand on the Apple app storein terms of the download rates. This is clearly a reason whyAutomotive OEMs are creating API’s to use internet radio through thevehicle HMI. E.g. Ford Sync Applink for controlling Pandora radiothrough Sync HMI
Zipcar introduced a car sharing application in late 2009 which was ahuge success witnessing 100,000 downloads within first few days oflaunch. Similarly TomTom’s navigation app amidst 10 other brandednavigation apps also witnessed good download rates currentlyoffered at a price of $70
Automotive App Store Market – Apple App Store Apps Mix (US), 2010
6
Company App Category Features Downloads
Zipcar Free Car Sharing App Mobility Choose, Reserve, Locate and
Lock/Unlock cars
100,000 since first few days of launch
TomTom Navigation App Car Navigation Turn by Turn navigation US &
Canada
80,000 Downloads as of October, 2009
M551-18
Automotive App Store Market – Automotive Apps Usage Trends (US), 2009
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Source: 148apps.biz
Automotive Apps – Navigation is Increasingly Becoming Commoditized on the Smartphone Bundle
Car/Van Pooling – car and van pooling apps,
Multimodal Transport –apps for real time bus and
transit networks, e.g. Avego
Car Sharing Access – Virtual key fob apps for
unlocking reserved cars, e.g. Zipcar App
IP TV – live TV using internet,
Social Networking –e.g. Twitter,
Facebook, Xing
News – Online radio news, RSS
feeds reader e.g. Stitcher,
Vehicle Access – Apps for converting
Remote Car Starter/Security
– e.g. Viper SmartStart App from Directed Electronics
Remote Vehicle Horn/Light Flash – Security App,
e.g. Viper SmartStart
Real Time Video Traffic Feeds –
e.g. Visteon
Diagnostics –TPMS,
service/oil notifications, e.g. Hughes Telematics
Integrated Telematics –
eCall/bCall/Tolling etc in one App
Charging Station Locator – on
available charge
Interior Pre-Condition App –
remote heating/coolinge.g. Chevy Volt
App
EV Billing Related –
possibility to integrate all
energy related billing in an app
Dynamic POI Finder
e.g. Trapster
Real time Traffic Information
e.g. Inrix Traffic App
3D Navigation with Video
Support
Automotive App Store Market – Types of Automotive Apps in Different Categories (Europe & US), 2009 - 2015
7
Mobility
Car Sharing –Choosing,
Reservation and locating cars,
e.g. Zipcar
pooling apps, e.g. Zimride,
Avego
Entertainment
Internet Radioe.g. Pandora,
Stitcher, RadioTime
using internet, e.g.. .SPB TV,
Vehicle Access and Security
Vehicle Locator – Apps for
locating vehicle within vicinity,
e.g. Mbrace Blackberry App
converting phone in smart key, e.g. Delphi App on iPhone
Telematics
Emergency Assistance –e.g. Mazda
Assistance App, BMW Assistance
App
e.g. Visteon TrafficJamCam
App
Electric Vehicles
State of Charge Monitoring App
e.g. GM Volt App, BMW
Active 1 Series Concept E App
available charge on a map
e.g. Chevy Volt App
Navigation
Turn by Turn Navigation
e.g. TomTom, Navigon, Sygic
e.g. Trapster speed camera locations app
M551-18
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Hybrid Connected Systems Like Ford SYNC are bringing in Navigation as a Beamed-In Feature
Hybrid Telematics Market : Unit shipment (U.S.), 2009 & 2016
0
3
6
9
2009 2016Year
Units (
In M
illio
ns )
Hybrid Telematics Market : Unit shipment Market Share (U.S.), 2009
79%
Hybrid Telematics Market : Hybrid Telematics Providers (U.S.), 2009
Vehicle
ManufacturersMercedes-Benz BMW Ford
Solution Name mbrace ConnectedDrive Sync
ProviderHughes Telematics,
Inc.ATX Group, Inc,.
Microsoft
Corporation
“Ford, GM and Toyota,
combinely is expected to
have around 80 percent of
the unit shipment (first
year subscribers) of Hybrid
telematics in 2016”
8N80D– 18
OEM’s 2009 2016
Mercedes-Benz 34,882 288,169
Ford 805,072 2,468,002
BMW 181,295 311,410
Toyota -- 1,468,513
Hyundai-Kia -- 242,172
General Motors -- 3,036,761
Chrysler -- 403,700
Mercedes-Benz Ford BMW Others
3%18% 0%
Mercedes BMW Ford Others
Hybrid Telematics Market : Unit shipment (U.S.), 2009 & 2016
Vehicle Manufacturers
Current/Planned Telematics Offering
Year of Introduction –Hybrid Solution
Toyota Embedded 2012
Hyundai-Kia Connected 2011
General Motors Embedded 2012
Chrysler Connected 2012
Hybrid Market : OEM’s Introduction of Hybrid Telematics (U.S.), 2009
Hybrid Connected Telematics Market – Solution Offerings in North America
Value Chain Participants Mercedes-Benz mbrace Ford Sync BMW ConnectedDrive
System Integrator –Outsource
Hughes Telematics, Inc. (HTI) Ford Motor Company BMW AG
Hardware ProviderContinental Automotive
Systems (CAS)
Continental Automotive Systems (CAS) / M/A-COM
Wireless Systems
Continental Automotive Systems (CAS)
Service Provider / Connectivity
Hughes Telematics, Inc. (HTI) Airbiquity ATX Group, Inc.,
Wireless Carrier Verizon Wireless --Verizon Wireless, Telus
Corporation and Bell Mobility Inc.
9N80D– 18
Mobility Inc.
Real-time Traffic Information Provider
Traffic.com INRIX, Inc.Clear Channel
Communications
Online Maps Google Inc. MapQuest Google Inc.
Navigation - Map Provider NAVTEQ TeleNav, Inc. and deCarta Tele Atlas NV
Software Provider -- Microsoft Corporation --
Voice / Speech Interface Nuance Communications, Inc.Nuance Communications,
Inc., & Tellme Networks IncNuance Communications,
Inc.
Mobile Apps --Pandora, Stitcher and
TwitterBerry--
Q38 How interested would you be in buying a navigation system that does the following…
Features of Navigation System that Consumers Look For
1%
0%
1%
0.9%
0.9%
1.8%
10.0%
10.2%
14.1%
33.3%
37.3%
32.2%
55.3%
51.2%
50.6%
Automatically re-routes if you
miss a turn, provides automatic
changes to your route as required
Automatically updates your route
and re-routes automatically in
case of accidents or hold ups on
the roads
Notifies emergency services
automatically in case you are in
10
Base: All respondents n=1,056
1%
0%
1%
1.8%
0.9%
1.3%
14.1%
11.8%
12.2%
32.2%
41.2%
41.6%
50.6%
45.7%
44.3%
automatically in case you are in
an accident
Provides road condition status
which can in turn influence
driving conditions (floods, ice,
etc.)
Continually provides Information
on accidents or delays on your
route
Not Interested at All Not Interested Neither/Nor/Not sure/Don't know Interested Very Interested
Over 55% of consumers are very interested in a system that automatically re-routes if they miss a turn and in the eventof accidents or hold ups on the road. Overall more than 80% were interested or very interested in the features below.
Type of System Preferred for Next System
Q72 Please select the type of system that you would prefer for your next system?
49.1%
22.3%
Dynamic GPS
Map based
GPS Map based
11
Base All respondents n=1056
Generally, map based is preferred to turn-by-turn. The dynamic GPS map based is the most popular type of systemwhere nearly half of the respondents selected it.
13.4%
15.2%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
GPS Turn-by-turn
Dynamic GPS
Turn-by-turnSets a new route based on traffic
jams or road conditions
Sets a new route based on traffic
jams or road conditions
Voice of Consumer on Apps and HMI - Europe
12
2010 Infotainment Voice of the Customer-
European Consumers’ Attitudes, Perceptions, and Willingness to Pay Regarding New Generation Infotainment,
App Concepts, and HMI Solutions
Research Objectives, Methodology and Sample Size
25%
25%
25%
14
25%
Specifically, survey respondents had to be 18 years or older, own a new generation smartphone (e.g. Symbian, Apple, Blackberry, Palm, Android, Microsoft), and own a vehicle three years old or less
Executive Summary: Current Usage of Infotainment and Apps Solutions
• Apps that keep people generally informed are most popularly used. Yet, awareness and usage of apps is low-to-moderate.
• Apps used inside the car are generally car-related – with navigation being the most popularly used.
• High Apps Users – though a small segment of the population – are likely the target for car-related apps, given their daily usage of multiple apps.
16%15%
28%
10%38% 35%
28% 28% 27% 26% 24% 22% 20% 18% 17%11%
80%
100%Awareness/Usage of Smartphone Apps (N=1,911)
Daily user
Weekly user
Navig-ation
Live Traffic
Access to Smartphone Apps Inside Car
15
5% 6% 2%8%
3% 5% 8% 10% 11% 11% 7%
36%36% 35%
32%
42%
40%43%
47% 46%53% 56%
48%
43%
21% 24% 38%
22%30%
26%21% 22%
16%28%
0%
20%
40%
60%
New
s
Weath
er
Navig
ation
Music
Vid
eos
Liv
e tra
ffic
in
form
ation
support
ed …
Inte
rnet
radio
Gam
es
Sport
s
Busin
ess
Tra
vel
Pro
ductivity
userAware, but non-userNever heard of
Travel
Music
Internet
Radio
Source: Frost & Sullivan
High Apps Users: 9%
Moderate-to-Low Apps
Users: 88%
Vehicle Track-ing
Emerg-ency/
Break-down Service
Service and Maint-enance
Navig-ation with Points of Interest
Overview of Current and Future Usage of Car-Related Apps
Currently, navigation with points of interest apps are most popularly used (53%). Yet, among non-users, vehicle tracking apps may be just as popularly used in the future.
53%
71%
63% 63% 63%61%60%
80%
Current Use, Future Use, and Future Market Potential(N=1,911)
Current Use Future Usage Future Market Potential
Future MarketPotential
Note: Future
market
potential is a
sum of current
usage and
16
53%
36%33%
27% 28%
40%
27%
34%
28%26% 25%
38%
18%
27%30%
36%33%
11%
24%
15%
20%22%
19%
5%
51% 51%49% 48% 48%
44% 43%
0%
20%
40%
Navi
gatio
n
with
Poin
ts o
f In
tere
st
Serv
ice a
nd
Main
tenance
Em
erg
ency/
Br
eakdow
n
Serv
ice
Vehic
le
Tra
ckin
g
Vehic
le
Info
rmatio
n
Ente
rtain
ment
Rem
ote
Lock
and S
tart
Mile
age
Based
Insura
nce
Toll
Passage
Eco-D
rivi
ng
Pers
onal-
isatio
n
RS
S F
eeds
Source: Frost & SullivanQ14/36A. Please indicate your level of awareness for the following and let us know your future preferences to access these apps.
usage and
future usage
Spend on Apps Inside Car - First Time Fees, Details
9%7% 9% 10% 9% 13% 16%
14%13% 13% 17% 18% 15% 12%
18%17% 20% 20%
9%
7% 8%9% 10% 7% 9%
11%13% 11% 15%
19%
6% 6% 8%8% 10% 12% 8% 13%
11% 7%
60%
80%
100%
First Time Fees for Apps Inside Car (N=1,911)
No Fee Less than €1 €1-€5 €6-€10 €11-€15 €16-€20 More than €20
First time fees of apps used inside the car – which range from navigation to traffic to entertainment – are largely free.
17
60% 57% 56% 55% 55% 54% 51%41%
36% 34% 33%28%
7% 9% 10% 9% 13% 16%
15%16% 16% 16%
16%
17% 20% 20%
18%
0%
20%
40%
60%
Weath
er
Navi
gatio
n
Liv
e t
raff
ic in
fo
Inte
rnet
radio
Music
Tra
vel
New
s
Vid
eos
Sport
s
Busin
ess
Gam
es
Pro
ductiv
ity
Q6. For the following apps that you use inside your vehicle, please provide the following details about your usage.
Source: Frost & SullivanNote: Proportions less than five not shown numerically in chart.
Conclusions
18
So What – Navigation will become a Commodity App on Phone, Revenue for OEMs through Terminal Mode Type Solutions
Clear opportunities for solutions like Terminal mode which can
seamlessly connect phone to cars
Revenue opportunities for OEMs
So what??
Apps for Navigation currently have a good
market. In our European survey we
found a large part of the sample (1911) using
North American market is expected to
be dominated by Smartphone
navigation apps which will mean
decreasing sales of PNDs
19
Revenue opportunities for OEMs exist in these interfaces and
Tier 1 suppliers can get some traction through low cost OEM units
which should sell less than $500
Most consumers want to use existing data plan to access
services – tethering is the way to go
Electric vehicle apps are expected to be priced for free – again another area where OEMs can add value for
customers
Source: Frost & Sullivan
With companies like Bosch introducing navigation apps
on the Apple platform, navigation will eventually become a function of the
smartphone and not the carTogether with navigation the next big thing is the need for
traffic information. This real-time traffic information brings the
benefit of dynamic route guidance which also has a
positive environmental impact
sample (1911) using navigation related apps for weekend journeys
Replicate Enable Provide
Most cost effective Most rich experience
Mobile phone based apps
Embedded Apps
Example: NOKIA Terminal Mode Example: Ford Sync, Fiat Blue&Me Example: Harman 3G Infotainment System,
Continental AutolinQ, InkaNet 3G, GENIVI
Short to Medium Term will see OEMs Focusing more on the Replicator and Enabler Roles
20M653-18
Positives: Low Cost of Development for OEM, Design advanced interfaces which can easily access information from portable deviceNegatives: Loosing control of infotainment, Possible High level of distractionApprox implementation time 6
months after introduction of Terminal
Mode
Minimal source of Revenue
Positives: Relatively low cost of development, allows consumers to associate with brand, provides connectivity of CE devicesNegatives: Is not always the best integrated solution, possible level of distraction
Approx implantation time 2 years
Possible source of revenue include
subscription to critical services
Positives: Safest and best way for integrated experience, strong association with brand, flexible system allows to upgrade and keep in line with technology Negatives: Cost associated is usually high, proprietary systems
Approx implementation time 5 years
High source of revenue
Contact
Sarah Saatzer
Corporate Communications
21M653-18
P: 210.477.8427 ; F: 210.348.1003
www.frost.com