Nature & Influence of Intuition in Law Enforcement Research Question Drafting on the fly.

Nature & Influence of Intuition in Law Enforcement

Research Question Drafting on the fly

Bryan Vila, Ph.D. Apr 18, 20232

Draft research questions

• Process:• I’ve written a few

questions as a point of departure

• But they’re tentative• You propose changes

after they run• Copies sent to

everyone for review


Research Question #1• How do police officers define what we’ve

been calling ‘intuition’?• What are the minimum number of dimensions

of intuition?• What are the measurable indicators of this

concept?• Is it reasonable to use this as a working

definition in our research?• If it does fit with existing literature?• If it doesn’t?


Research Question #2

• Do individual officers vary in their intuitive capabilities?• In their propensity to use intuitive

processes?• In their reliance on intuition?• In their beliefs about intuition:

• Useful vs. unprofessional?• One tool in the kit vs. best/worst tool?



• If there are differences in individual officers’ intuitive capabilities, • How much of the variation is innate?• How much learned?• How much acquired early in the life

course?• Pre-, peri-, post-natal• Early abuse, etc.


Research Question #3a

• Are there relationships between self-reports about intuition and peer-reports about intuition?

• Prospectively vs. retrospectively?



• To what extent can officers’ intuitive capabilities be improved – or degraded?• Through training?• Mentoring?• By educating them about decision

making?• Pre-employment screening?


Research Question #5• Do officers’ intuitive abilities and their

propensity to use intuition vary with:• Physical environment and type of task?

• E.g., tactical vs. investigative vs. interrogation• Level of uncertainty?• Perceived threat or stakes associated with

decision?• Mood or affective state?• Time available for decision?



• How consistent (reliable) are officers’ intuitive abilities?• Compared to previous performance?• Across domains, threats, etc. from RQ

#5


Research Question #7• What are the correlates of intuitive

performance?• Personality dimensions• Gender and sex• Personal history• Enthusiasm• Confidence in abilities• Physical state

• Fatigue, fear, anger, interest, …• Various forms of intelligence?


Research Question #8• How closely linked are intuition and

inaccurate stereotypes?• What do these findings tell us about

hazards associated with intuitive thinking?

• Can links between intuition and stereotyping be changed?• In a way that does not impair appropriate

intuitive performance?



• How much variation is there in individual ability to detect:• Deception?• Discontinuities?• Other potential confounds to accurate

decision making?

• Is this different from intuition?



• What are the cues that trigger intuition?• Do they vary between individuals,

situations, domains, etc.?• Do they vary depending on officers’

base levels of situational awareness?



• Are the cues people report using to make intuitive decisions different from those they actually use?• Face, voice, body language,• Status markers (dress, posture, diction)


Research Question 11a

• Can the triggers people report being associated with intuitive insight be measured physiologically?• Could physiological indicators be used

to sensitize



• Comparability of various law enforcement occupations:• Do the same dynamics apply for police

patrol officers, investigators, customs officers, intelligence analysts, interrogators, undercover agents and investigators, …?

• Other first responders?

• Comparability between cops & crooks?


Threats to validity?

• Denominator of threat perception?• Examples: (maximum liklihood ratio, etc.)

Number of Intuitive ‘Hits’

Number of Targets

or

Number of Correct Intuitive Hits

Number of Incorrect Hits


Generalizability

• How can we increase the generalizability of experimental studies of police intuition?• Using field tapes, etc.• Raising stakes for research subjects in

simulated situations•


Research Methods

• What exemplary research designs and methods used in other studies can be replicated using police subjects?

• How can we best integrate research about police intuition with existing research in this area?


An expert resource

• www.nobel.se/economics/laureates/2002/Kahnemann-lecture.pdf

Nature & Influence of Intuition in Law Enforcement Research Question Drafting on the fly.

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