Nature and

ecosystem

services: a global

perspective Andrew BalmfordDepartment of Zoology, University of Cambridge

What’s happening to nature?

Why does it matter?

Grounds for hope?

What lessons can we learn?

What are nature’s prospects?

Habitat loss~50% of land already converted to farming, forestry, towns…

What’s happening to

nature?

Overkill59% decline in large mammals inside African reserves since 1970

Introduced specieschytrid fungus has already caused dozens of frog extinctions→ 1 in 5 spp. already threatened with extinction

Habitat lossNo slowing

What’s happening to

nature?

Population declineNo slowing

8/10 indicators of state of nature declined5/5 indicators of pressure on nature increased

→ since 2000:

Emerging threats

climate change

eutrophication

ocean acidification

What’s happening to

nature?

wild-harvested goods (fish,

timber, medicines…)

Why does it matter?

moral, religious and aesthetic

arguments

less visible services (climate

regulation, storm protection,

crop pollination, disease

control…)

Converting what’s left

of nature often

benefits private

individuals, but at

growing cost to

society as a whole –

nowadays often total

costs > benefits

Why does it matter?Economics of ecosystem services

Estimated net costs of each year’s loss of

nature:

~$3 trillion (Balmford et al. 2002)

$2-4.5 trillion (TEEB 2010)

$6.6 trillion (Trucost 2010)

Marginal benefit or

cost of conversion

($/km2/y)

Proportion converted

Loss of waste disposal service provided by South Asia’s vultures after tens of millions poisoned by diclofenac

Why does it matter?

Economics of ecosystem

services

Loss of storm protection provided by US wetlands following drainage

1992 Grand Banks cod collapse cost 40 000 jobs and $3B to Canadian taxpayer

restore optimism

Grounds for hope?

Better understanding

successes could….

identify contributing

factors and so increase

future success rate

Kaziranga NP, Assam

“fortress-and-fines”

conservation

coupled with

exceptional

tolerance of wildlife

have increased

Indian rhino

numbers from

~20→>2000 in 100y

Grounds for hope?

Loma Alta, western

Ecuador

Measuring value of

high-altitude forest

not for biodiversity

but for dry season

fog capture

prompted

community to

declare 40% of their

land as a reserve

Esm

ere

ldas

woodst

ar

Grounds for hope?

Dutch National

Ecological Network

is (almost) on target

to give 17.5% of

land back to nature

by 2018

Grounds for hope?

Grounds for hope?

approaches, motives and

participants are diversifying -

one size doesn’t fit all

What lessons can we learn?

despite diversity, recurrent

themes:

• being bold

• being good, not perfect

• passionate and imaginative

leaders

• broadening the case

conservation interventions do

succeed

threats are growing and

multiplying

~1 generation left for major

changes

but

• same changes required to tackle

climate change and poverty

• ~ half of nature left

• we have the wit and the will to

buy quite a lot of time

What are nature’s prospects?

Working for Water,

South Africa

~$100M/y project

employing >25

000 previously

unskilled people to

clear alien plants

Grounds for hope?

Huntly bauxite mine, Western Australia

global range of jarrah forest

± covered by world’s largest

bauxite concession); mining

involves clear-felling with

minimal restoration

requirements

concerned about future public opinion, Alcoa invested massively in restoration R+D – so restored plots now as rich as before

Grounds for hope?

America Albacore Fisheries

Association

a small fishery catching Pacific albacore with rods (poles) and short lines (trolls)

biologically sustainable and with zero bycatch

overharvesting elsewhere drove prices (in real terms) down from $3100 / tonne (1981) to $1275 / tonne (2006)

pho

to:

Ric

hard

Her

rman

n

www.americanalbacore.com

Grounds for hope?

Marine Stewardship Council

by becoming MSC-certified AAFA gained access to European markets

4000km

AAFA

98 fisheries and >6000 products now certified worldwide – represents >7% of fish caught for human consumption; almost 200 more fisheries under assessment / pre-assessment

problems – Standard criticised as too demanding/easy, limited baseline data, and process costly so limited uptake in developing countries

Some success stories

www.msc.org

Loss of waste disposal

service provided by

South Asia’s vultures

after >10M poisoned by

diclofenac

Why does it matter?

Economics of ecosystem

services

Loss of storm protection

provided by US wetlands

following drainage

such changes will take time

but same changes are required

to tackle climate change and

developing world poverty

~half of nature still remains

success stories suggest that in

some places we have the wit

and the will to buy quite a lot of

time

The glass half-full?

Habitat

conversion

The emptying glass…

40Historic area converted (%)0 20 60 80 100

Mediterranean forest and woodland

Temperate grassland and shrubland

Temperate broadleaf and mixed forest

Tropical/subtropical dry forest

Flooded grassland and savanna

Tropical/subtropical grassland and shrubland

Tropical/subtropical coniferous forest

Deserts and zeric shrubland

Montane grassland and shrubland

Tropical/subtropical moist forest

Temperate conifer forest

Boreal forest/taiga

Tundra

Pre 1950

1950-1990

Predicted 2050

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005

before

after

Overharvesting

reduced great whale

populations by > two-thirds

eaten >99% of Caribbean’s

green turtles

killed every passenger pigeon

The emptying glass…

since industrial revolution reduced

wild habitats and populations by

~50%

removing rest at ~0.5-1.5% /y

79% of fish stocks now fully

exploited, overexploited or

depleted

59% decline in large mammals

inside African protected areas

since 1970

extinction rates ~1000 x

background

1 in 5 spp. threatened already

The emptying glass…

Underlying drivers

population growth

rising per capita consumption

externalities and discounting

growing disconnect from

nature

The emptying glass…

population 1950-2030, UNPD 2006

world totalworld ruralworld urban

Dorset heathland

Thomas Hardy

The importance of

optimism

1978

1960

1811

1934

1960

1978

1996

Norman Moore

Moore 1960 J appl

Ecol 50: 369-391

Loma Alta, western Ecuador

Dusti Becker recognised

importance of forests for

intercepting dry-season (garúa)

fog

dry-season moisture capture in

forest 3-6 times higher than in

plantations or pasture

under conservative

assumptions clearance already

cost village 38M l/dry season

(worth $130 000/y)

Some success stories

Becker 1999 Ambio 28: 156-161

Habitat lossNo slowing

What’s happening to

nature?

Population declineNo slowing

8/10 indicators of state of nature declined5/5 indicators of pressure on nature increased

→ since 2000: