Natural Resource Partners L.P. Investor Meetings West Coast March 19-20, 2007.
Natural Resource Partners L.P.
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Transcript of Natural Resource Partners L.P.
Natural Resource Partners L.P.
Platts Coal Properties Conference
March 2009
Mergers, Acquisitions, Growth & Liquidity in a Credit/Equity
Constrained World
Nick CarterPresident & COO(304) 522 – 5757
[email protected] Irwin Road
Huntington, WV 25705
Forward-Looking Statements
The statements made by representatives of Natural Resource Partners L.P. (“NRP”) during the course of this presentation that are not historical facts are forward-looking statements. Although NRP believes that the assumptions underlying these statements are reasonable, investors are cautioned that such forward-looking statements are inherently uncertain and necessarily involve risks that may affect NRP’s business prospects and performance, causing actual results to differ from those discussed during the presentation.
Such risks and uncertainties include, by way of example and not of limitation: general business and economic conditions; decreases in demand for coal; changes in our lessees’ operating conditions and costs; changes in the level of costs related to environmental protection and operational safety; unanticipated geologic problems; problems related to force majeure; potential labor relations problems; changes in the legislative or regulatory environment; and lessee production cuts.
These and other applicable risks and uncertainties have been described more fully in NRP’s 2008 Annual Report on Form 10-K. NRP undertakes no obligation to publicly update any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information or future events.
What A Roller Coaster!
Company EOY 2007 1Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 4Q 2008
KOL - Market Vectors Coal ----------- $38.15 $58.00 $29.44 $14.89
BTU - Peabody Energy $61.64 $51.00 $88.05 $45.00 $22.75
ACI - Arch Coal $44.93 $43.50 $75.03 $32.89 $16.29
CNX - Consol Energy $71.52 $69.19 $112.37 $45.89 $28.58
ANR - Alpha Natural Resources $32.48 $43.44 $104.29 $51.43 $16.19
MEE - Massey Energy $35.75 $36.50 $93.75 $35.67 $13.79
PCX - Patriot Coal $41.74 $46.97 $153.29 $29.05 $6.25
JRCC - James River Coal $11.18 $17.52 $58.69 $21.99 $15.33
ARLP - Alliance Resource Partners $36.27 $35.00 $55.68 $31.52 $26.88
NRP - Natural Resource Partners $32.46 $28.35 $41.20 $25.33 $17.45
Closing Prices
NRP’s Unique Perspective
73 Lessees/200+ Leases
3 Coal Basins
Lease Provisions
- Assignments
- Subleasing
- Sale of company stock
Relationships
10 – 15 Regional Managers in field each week
Status of M & A/Financing Activity2008 was slowest in memory
• First half – with price run-up, only foreign steel/met coal activity
• Second half – coal price falling, no forward price visibility, equity values contracting, credit dried up
• More coal transactions were cancelled than closed
• Best way to raise capital – cut dividends, but most coal companies don’t pay significant or any dividend
• U.S. Secondary stock offerings in 2008 – equity investors lost ~66%
• Only 1 IPO in 2009 –Infant formula
Why Not More M&A in 2008?
• Buyers wanted to conserve cashRapid decline in coal pricesBottom not foundCapex needs increasingMining cost in Appalachian Basin and PRB increasing
• Lack of debt or equity financingCredit market dried upMost LOC are operating not acquisition orientedTake out financing is difficult/impossibleLast person you want to see is your bankerNo one wants to sell equity at these prices
Why? continued
• Lack of Bonding CapacityNot often cited as reasonBonding amounts just keep going upA real cash eating machineLong – term use of liquidity
• Low Coal PricesHard to project increasing EBITDAMargin squeeze - bad enough where you know costs and workforceMake it harder to project savings from synergy
Selected Acquisitions
Arch Coal to Buy RTEA’s Jacob’s Ranch Mine
$761 million Financing Unknown Regulatory Approval Synergy – Contiguous 9 Year Reserves
Cliffs Natural Resources / Alpha Natural Resources
Announced July 15 – Terminated Nov. 7 $9.8 Billion on offer date Would have been largest iron ore and met coal Cliffs did not believe they could get shareholder approval Stock Prices
– Cliffs 7/14 – $113.44 11/06 - $30.46 3/13 – $13.03
– ANR 7/14 - $98.72 11/06 - $24.36 3/13 - $19.47
Price was set at .95 x Cliffs Share + $22.23/share in cash.
Value on termination was ¼ of original $9.8 Billion
Patriot Coal Buys Magnum Coal
Stock transaction – worth $709 million at announcement, $1.5 billion at close
Formed (pro-forma) second largest CAPP producer Appeared to have significant synergy Top notch management team that worked well to each
strengths Maximization of coal sales and sourcing Even with all this, today’s market cap is $240 million
ArcelorMittal Buys Mid-Vol and Concept
Two independent contiguous companies bought within a month
Subsequently announced consolidation Both deals were conceived and priced before met price
run-up Sellers did not get greedy 2.3 – 3.0 mm tpy high quality met coal 140 mmt of reserves Lots of synergies Pricing unknown
Cline Group Buys ExxonMobil’s Monterey Mine
Exxon had extended effort to sell over several years Mine closed at end of 2007 Cline has nearby Hillsboro reserves and permit NRP transaction pursuant to global arrangement
– $143.7 Million• Reserves• Rail Loop• Loadout
Exxon price for Monterey not announced
Severstal Buys PBS Coal
Price originally announced as $1.3 billion but was reduced by $300 million
NAPP producer of met and steam coal – 4.0 mmtpy capacity
Severstal tying up supply after purchase of Weirton and Wheeling Pitt
Bankruptcy (the earlier model for M&A)
Black Diamond – Bankruptcy– Seems headed for sale– Will there be a stalking horse
Clearwater - Bankruptcy– DIP financing forced liquidation
Natural Resource Partners L.P.