Natural & Organic Quarterly Trends P -...

1 1

P

January – March 2015

Natural & Organic

Quarterly Trends

2

Trends January – March 2015

Table Of Contents

SPINS Natural Channel Industry Update…………….................................3 – 7 SPINS Natural Channel Top New Items ……………..................................8 – 10 SPINS Natural Channel Back-Up……………………........................…………11 – 13 Bulk Commodities………………………………………………………………………….14 – 20 UNFI Natural Channel Growth Trends Analysis Methodology…………21 – 22 Strong Growth Trends…………………………………………………………………….23 – 30 Top New Items……………………………………………………………………………….31 – 36 Findings from Expo West……………………………………………………………....37 – 40 Projecting the Future……………………………………………………………………..41 – 46 Featured Products Listing…..………………………………………………………....47 – 57

3


4


• SPINS Natural Channel

• Market: Total US

• Period: Current 12 Weeks (Ending 3/22/2015) vs. same time period 1 year ago

– Q1 2015 vs Q1 2014 Quarter-to-Quarter (QtQ)

– Dollar sales used for analysis and rankings

• New Items are defined as having zero dollar sales in the same quarter 1 year ago

SPINS Data Assumptions

Source: SPINScan Natural (proprietary) 52 weeks (4 weeks ending 3-22-2015). UPC Coded Items only. Growth based on dollar volume for current period versus

year ago plus. Data derived from SPINS only Channels

SPINS Natural Channel Industry Update

5


Quarter to Quarter Department Growth Trends

• The top 5 departments drove 85% of the $115M dollar growth Quarter to Quarter (QtQ) • Grocery departments (*) drove 71.1% of Q1 2015 dollars, up +0.4 points vs same quarter a year ago

• Grocery Depts. grew 8.2% vs Q1 2014 • Grocery, on its own, drove 38% of the Q1 total dollars and 29% of the total dollar growth QtQ




6


Dollar Growth Index by Quarter

• Since Q1-2014, dollar growth has slowly declined primarily in Grocery and Frozen Departments. • They drive 48% of the total 5 quarters $ Growth

• Remaining Departments show an uptick in Q1-2015 performance; they have not recovered to previous Quarter highs. • Grocery drives 38% of the total dollar growth having the most influence on the downward trend total

• Within Grocery, 58% of its categories are showing decline or slowing dollar growth



81% of Total $ Growth

Total $ Growth Index 2014-Q1 2014-Q2 2014-Q3 2014-Q4 2015-Q1

$ Growth ($M) $147 $149 $123 $131 $115

% $ Growth 10.9% 10.3% 9.3% 9.7% 7.6%


7


Top 15 Category Growth Trends Q1 2015 vs. Q1 2014



• The top 15 categories drove 53% or $60M of the total $115M Natural Channel dollar growth QtQ • Grocery categories (*) drove 79% or $48M of the top 15 categories dollar growth • Vitamins & Supplements categories drove 18% or $11M and Other (Misc. Base Coded Items) 3.0% or 1.9M of the

remaining growth dollars


8


9


Top New Item - Brands by Department

Produce Brands - Mighties, Earthbound Farm, Sunset, South Pacific, Organic Girl, Driscolls, Alpine Fresh, Tanimura & Antle, Sk Organics, Grimmway

V & S - Garden Of Life, Renew Life, Private Label, Vega, Amazing Grass, Orgain, New Chapter, Natures Way, Wileys Finest, Whole Earth & Sea

Frozen Brands - Teton Waters Ranch, Daniele Naturale, Wymans Of Maine, Earthbound Farm, Stone Ridge Ranch, Daniele, Remlinger, Dakota Beef, Boars Head, Arctic Zero

Grocery - Pacific Natural Foods, Miltons, Kind, Rices, Thinkthin, Nutiva, Bobs Red Mill, Horizon, Boulder, Annies Homegrown

Refrigerated Brands - Odwalla, Garden Highway, Silk, Suja, Alfresco Eggs, Kevita, Bel Gioioso, Maple Hill Creamery, Alderfers, The Field Roast Grain Meat Co

Body Care - Andalou Naturals, Dr Hauschka, Simplers, Alaffia, Unitrex, Burts Bees, Mineral Fusion, Jason Natural Cosmetics, Xylichew, Mychelle



SPINS Natural Channel Top New Items

10


New Item Top Attributes

• Since Q4, the SPINS Product Library team has significantly expanded the breadth of SPINS attribute coding • All asterisked attributes are new or substantially expanded as of the Q4 Trends • The above depicts SPINS and Third Party Item Attribute values for “coded” items only reflecting their Quarter to Quarter dollar growth



SPINS Natural Channel Top New Items

11


12


Department Growth Trends Q1-2015

Grocery, Refrigerated, Frozen, Body Care, and Produce Departments are strongest in driving dollar growth vs year ago Q1



• The top 5 departments drove 85% of the $115M dollar growth QtQ • Grocery departments (*) drove 71.1% of Q1 2015 dollars, up +0.4 points vs same quarter a year ago

• Grocery Depts. grew 8.2% vs Q1 2014 • Grocery, on it’s own, drove 38% of the Q1 total dollars and 29% of the total dollar growth QtQ

Department Q1-2015 Q1 2015 Q1 2014 % $ Growth $ Growth

*Grocery 624,631,172$ 591,048,561$ 5.7% 33,582,611$

*Refrigerated 284,987,366$ 254,271,569$ 12.1% 30,715,797$

*Frozen 147,543,282$ 135,762,339$ 8.7% 11,780,943$

*Produce - Packaged 97,626,838$ 86,485,398$ 12.9% 11,141,440$

Body Care 97,600,491$ 87,371,865$ 11.7% 10,228,626$

Vitamins & Supplements 223,522,092$ 214,987,097$ 4.0% 8,534,995$

Herbs & Homeopathic 70,532,898$ 66,539,760$ 6.0% 3,993,138$

General Merchandise 46,784,299$ 43,518,027$ 7.5% 3,266,272$

Other 29,055,774$ 27,194,214$ 6.8% 1,861,560$

Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicines 1,329,867$ 1,399,126$ -5.0% (69,259)$

Total 1,623,614,079$ 1,508,577,956$ 7.6% 115,036,123$

SPINS Natural Channel Back-Up

13


Top 15 Category Growth Trends Q1-2015

• The top 15 categories droves 53% or $60M of the total $115M Natural Channel dollar growth QtQ • Grocery categories (*) drove 79% or $48M of the top 15 categories dollar growth • V&S categories drove 18% or $11M and Other 3 or 1.9M % of the remaining growth dollars

Category Rank

Q1-2015

Dollars

Category Rank

$ Growth QTQCategory Department Q1-2015 Q1 2015 Q1 2014 % $ Growth QtQ $ Growth QtQ

1 1 *Packaged Fresh Produce *Produce - Packaged 97,626,838$ 86,485,398$ 12.9% 11,141,440$

4 2 *Frozen & Refr Meats Poultry & Seafood *Frozen 55,282,159$ 46,987,196$ 17.7% 8,294,963$

2 3 Vitamins & Minerals Vitamins & Supplements 71,519,981$ 65,368,253$ 9.4% 6,151,728$

9 4 *Milk *Refrigerated 43,803,860$ 38,562,534$ 13.6% 5,241,326$

8 5 *Refrigerated Juices & Functional Beverages *Refrigerated 45,079,585$ 40,244,111$ 12.0% 4,835,474$

12 6 *Candy & Individual Snacks *Grocery 35,902,942$ 32,094,971$ 11.9% 3,807,971$

10 7 *Cheese & Cheese Alternatives *Refrigerated 37,472,522$ 33,714,550$ 11.1% 3,757,972$

5 8 *Yogurt & Kefir *Refrigerated 49,500,848$ 45,813,233$ 8.0% 3,687,615$

11 9 Digestive Aids & Enzymes Vitamins & Supplements 36,602,824$ 33,081,302$ 10.6% 3,521,522$

3 10 *Bread & Baked Goods *Grocery 69,782,951$ 66,833,858$ 4.4% 2,949,093$

7 11 *Chips Pretzels & Snacks *Grocery 45,643,290$ 43,529,778$ 4.9% 2,113,512$

15 12 Other (Miscellaneous Base-Coded Items) Other 29,055,774$ 27,194,214$ 6.8% 1,861,560$

13 13 *Oils & Vinegars *Grocery 30,588,407$ 28,785,263$ 6.3% 1,803,144$

14 14 Meal Replacements & Supplement Powders Vitamins & Supplements 30,575,005$ 28,773,391$ 6.3% 1,801,614$

6 15 Food Supplements Vitamins & Supplements 46,861,504$ 47,409,851$ -1.2% (548,347)$

Total 725,298,490$ 664,877,903$ 9.1% 60,420,587$



SPINS Natural Channel Back-Up

14


15


Bulk

• Growth this period for All Channels was 8.93% in dollars.

– With more supermarkets, All Channels featured a lower percent of Organic items.

• Bulk sales in the Natural Channel grew 5%.

• Higher Organic pricing during the holiday season negatively impacted unit sales.

Bulk Commodities

16


Category Driving Trends • Paleo Diet: A diet derived from Paleolithic-era unprocessed foods.

– New SKUs: coconut flour, coconut sugar, dried golden Inca berries, and dragon fruit.

– Let your customers know about available nut products and unsweetened fruits SKUs.

• Blue Zone Solution: Inclusionary eating habits of the world’s longest-lived people.

– The Blue Zone Solution’s Power 9 eating practice includes unprocessed foods and plant-based diets.

– Satisfying options include whole grains and legumes.

Bulk Commodities

http://thepaleodiet.com/

http://www.bluezones.com/blue-zones-solution-2/

http://www.bluezones.com/blue-zones-solution-2/

http://thepaleodiet.com/

17


Key Categories Nuts • Despite drought, California adequately supplied Conventional Nuts, but Organic supply did not meet demand. • Post holiday season, Nut unit movement is slow. • Nut sales dollars increased due to high retail pricing.

Walnuts – Conventional Walnuts weakened while Conventional Almonds strengthened. – Quality imported Walnuts from India and China. – Demand for Organic Almonds and Organic Walnuts outpaced supply and drove prices to an all time high.

Pistachios – Market is steady with slight price fluctuation.

Pecans – Market moved down for New Crop but is quickly improving. – Jr. Mammoth Halves led to a stronger demand for pieces, especially in manufacturing and bakery use.

Filberts – Supply issues with limited Organic imports from Turkey. – Domestic production sustained Conventional supply.

Bulk Commodities

18


Key Categories Grains

• For the first time in years, there is a slight downturn.

Quinoa

– Continued flattening of White as customers purchase more Red, Black, and Tri-Color.

– In recent years, White pricing escalated while other colors gained significant market share.

– The start of New Crop arrivals significantly drove down cost of White.

Oats

– A strong period, reasonable pricing caused sales to surge.

Bulk Commodities

19


What’s Hot

Beans

• Sales increased 10% over last year.

• Supply improved with a full variety of White Beans.

Dry Fruit

• Increased high demand across All Channels.

• Healthy snack alternatives drove Dry Fruit sales up 17% across All Channels and 8% in the Natural Channel.

Trail Mix

• New varieties led Snack sales to the double digits.

Bulk Commodities

20


What’s Not…But Getting Better Seeds

• Sales slightly decreased across All Channels, appearing to be mostly Flax, which had been trending up over the last year.

Chia

• Overproduction resulted in lowered costs. Once inventories reflect these costs, look for reasonable pricing.

Tea

• Downward trending sales are starting to rally. Look for Tea to make a comeback since there was a similar turnaround with Coffee.

Bulk Commodities

21


22


• Actual sales to Natural Independent Channel through nationwide UNFI distribution

• January – March 2015 compared to January – March 2014

• All numbers are based on actual sales from UNFI’s 15 distribution centers

Analysis Methodology

UNFI Natural Channel Growth Trends

23


24


Let there be BUTTER! Butter is a good source of beneficial saturated fats, butyrate, CLA, and Vitamin A*.

Kerrygold Irish Butter is rich, creamy butter made from grass-fed cows’ milk. Consumers are seeking the “Grass-Fed” label.

Organic Valley Cultured Quarters posted over 65% growth. With 84% butterfat, this butter is perfect for baking flakey crusts.

Organic India Pure Desi Ghee saw tremendous sales. Ghee, a clarified butter, is often used in Indian cooking. Due to its clarification, Ghee’s low lactose and milk content are often tolerated by those with dairy allergies.

* http://www.naturalnews.com/046770_butter_saturated_fats_health_benefits.html#

Strong Growth Trends

25


Yummy Gummies Treats made with organic ingredients, no artificial colors or flavors, and no corn syrup.

Yummy Earth Gummy Bears and Gummy Sour Worms are made with real fruit juice, no artificial anything, and have 100% of the RDA of Vitamin C. Gummy Bears are also available in on-the-go snack packs.

Surf Sweets Gummy Bears, Gummy Worms, and Candy Peach Rings all posted significant numbers in the SPINSscan Natural Channel in Q1. All are allergen friendly, non-GMO certified, and gluten free.

Both companies, Yummy Earth and Surf Sweets, sold a ton of jelly beans this quarter, making this candy a seasonal favorite.


26


Chocolate & Mint Chocolate and mint beat out past favorites of chocolate and almond or sea salt and caramel.

Talenti Mediterranean Mint Gelato posted triple digit growth in the SPINSscan Natural Channel, and their seasonal Peppermint Bark Gelato gained impressive sales.

So Delicious Mint Chocolate Coconut Milk flew out of cooler cases and posted significant numbers as a limited edition holiday flavor.

Barkthins Dark Chocolate Mint Thins are delicious dark chocolates with crunchy bits of cool peppermint. Barkthins are certified Fair Trade and non-GMO.


27


Coffee The Ready-to-Drink Coffee category in SPINSscan Natural posted over 90% growth, and new

home brew brands revived this previously quiet category.

Cold brews from Chameleon Cold Brew and Stumptown are brewed for 12 hours and without heat, resulting in a super smooth, less acidic coffee that can be enjoyed hot or cold.

All varieties of Califia Iced Coffee with Almondmilk posted impressive numbers. The XX Espresso Almondmilk Iced Coffee won the top title.

Kicking Horse and Marley Coffee posted triple digit growth. These organic brands are committed to sustainable and ethical practices. Colorful names of Kicking Horse’s products and a Bob Marley connection grabbed consumers’ attention this quarter.


28


Pre/Post Workout Protein Consumers are searching for protein-rich sources. Sales surged for Protein Drinks that

support active lifestyles.

Orgain provides protein for kids. Healthy Kids Chocolate Shake saw triple digit growth. It’s certified GF, organic, vegetarian, non-GMO, soy free, and made with grass fed milk. With 8 grams of protein, fruits, and veggies, this shake is perfect for active kids or the pickiest eaters.

Califia wins again with their Protein Almondmilk in Vanilla and Chocolate. A great vegan option for post-workouts, each single-serve bottle has 6 grams of plant-based protein.

Organic Valley Organic Fuel High Protein Shake in Vanilla and Chocolate soared in sales this quarter. This line is marketed as a “game changing, organic recovery shake packed with 26 grams of high quality milk protein to help get your body to its absolute peak.”*

* http://savethebros.com


29


Water Alkaline Waters ruled the category last quarter, but Sparkling, Flavored, and Still Waters

maintained strong numbers this quarter.

Hint Watermelon and Blackberry Essence flavors are pure water with natural fruit oils and essences for delicious hydration. Both rose more than 50% in the SPINSscan Natural Channel.

La Croix Sparkling Grapefruit, Lemon, and Lime flavors performed well. These seltzers are calorie free and sugar free with no artificial colors or flavors.

Voss 25.4 oz. still water has an eye-catching, sleek look. Bottled in pristine Southern Norway, Voss is committed to providing pure, clean drinking water to Sub-Saharan Africa and maintaining 100% carbon neutrality.


30


Freshen Up! During a long winter, consumers were looking to refresh their rooms and fabrics. These

clean scents put spring in the air and raised the Air Fresheners category in the SPINSscan Natural Channel into the triple digits.

Citrus Magic Odor Eliminating Air Freshener Spray in Tropical Citrus Blend leaves a fresh citrus scent from pure and natural citrus oils. Also, try their Solid Absorbing Air Fresheners.

Air Scense air fresheners in Orange, Lavender, Lime, and Vanilla scents rolled through check outs. Scented with essential oils and plant extracts, they naturally refresh and neutralize air without artificial scents found in many conventional sprays.

Grab Green Room & Fabric Freshener in Tangerine Lemongrass and Red Pear Magnolia are made from essential oils, naturally derived ingredients, and are free from phosphates and dyes.


31


32


Paleo + Coconut

Eating Evolved Coconut Butter Cups are available in Original, Mint, and Caramel. These chocolates are handmade, dairy, soy and gluten free, and are sweetened with organic, unrefined maple sugar.

Vitacoco Extra Virgin is certified organic, Raw Coconut Oil and is the latest addition to the successful line. 92% saturated fat makes this item a Paleo favorite.

Julian’s Bakery Paleo Coconut Flakes is made with only three ingredients. This Paleo-friendly cereal is packed full of energy and metabolism boosting MCT’s. A great way to start any day.

Paleo Diet popularity combined with coconut, these products can’t be overlooked.

Top New Items

33


Bacon

The wait is over! Magic Vegan Bacon Grease by Vegan Magic is a vegan-friendly product delivering all the deliciousness of bacon. Made from coconut oil, non-GMO soy protein, and a handful of seasonings, this item can be used in any recipe to provide bacon flavor.

Late July has done it again with their Bacon Habanero Tortilla Chips. Keeping their standards high, these chips are non-GMO certified, GF, vegan, and delicious. Try all of their “taco truck” varieties: Jalapeno Lime, Nacho Chipotle, and Crispy Yellow Corn.

Steve’s Paleogoods Bacon Paleokrunch Bar satisfies sweet & salty cravings in one bar with a combination of raw almonds, pumpkin and sunflower seeds, coconut flakes, and bacon bits.

Everything is better with bacon, and now there are options for meat-eaters and vegans alike.

Top New Items

34


Probiotics

Ozuke makes it easy for everyone to enjoy. Krauts & Kimchi’s are raw, Kosher, vegan, organic, non-GMO, and allergen free.

Upsart Kombucha is craft brewed in small batches for a complete, robust, naturally fermented, probiotic beverage.

Farmhouse Cuture’s line of Gut Shots are naturally fermented, unpasteurized, vegan drinks full of live probiotics. Just 2 oz. a day and you’re on your way.

Fermented foods help balance the gut microbes, increase probiotics and enzymes, and can help restore a healthy bacterial balance.

Top New Items

35


Vegan

Daiya Cheezecakes are rich and creamy dairy-free, soy free, and made with a gluten free crust. Available in New York Style, Key Lime, Chocolate, and Strawberry.

Beyond Meat Poppers and Meatballs are made from 100% plant-based proteins with the taste and texture of meat. Perfect for vegans or those just looking to cut back their meat intake.

Gardein Pocket Meals bring vegan grab-and-go goodness to the freezer aisle. Available in Italian Meatless Sausage, Crispy Chick’n with Veggies, and BBQ Pulled Porkless.

In 2014, nearly 16 million people in the U.S. described themselves as vegan or vegetarian while 33% stated they were eating meat or dairy-free meals more frequently.

http://www.onegreenplanet.org/news/is-2014-the-year-of-the-vegan/

Top New Items

36


Shark Tank

Heidi Ho presents vegan cheezes with delicious Creamy Chia Cheeze’s in Original, Spicy and Smoky, and Ne Chevre- a live-culture cashew cheeze.

Victoria’s Kitchen Almond Water uses a family recipe to combine natural flavors and extracts, purified water, and cane sugar. Available in Original Vanilla Rose and Coconut.

These emerging brands tried their hand in partnering with the infamous sharks on ABC’s Shark Tank. One was funded, one was not, and both saw serious sales.

Top New Items

37


March 4 - 8, 2015 Anaheim, CA

38


Maple Hill Creamery 100% Grass-Fed Organic Whole Milk Dairy products

Blue Hill Yogurt Unique flavors like Carrot, Beet and Parsnip use milk from 100% grass-fed cows

Living Raw Truffles

Nud Chia Banana and Cacao Banana Crisps

Wonderfully Raw Coco-Roons, Brussel Bytes, and Snip Chips

Julians Breads & Wraps

Steve’s Paleogoods Bars, Granola, and Snacks

Abundant Attributes:

Paleo

Grass-Fed

Raw

Expo West

39


Key Categories: Top UNFI Brands – National – Independent Channel

Honey & Granola

1. Madhava

2. L.R. Rice

3. Pacres Manuka Honey

4. Really Raw

5. WeeBee

• Flavored Honey – Vanilla, Lavender, Cinnamon

• Various forms – Creamed & Syrups

• As an ingredient

• Raw & Unfiltered varieties

Look For

1. Kind

2. Cascadian Farms

3. Nature’s Path

4. Udi’s

5. Bakery on Main

Look For

Up & Coming Brands:

1. Beaujolais

2. Evoke

3. Purely Elizabeth

Expo West

40


Key Categories: Top UNFI Brands – National – Independent Channel

Nutrition Bars & Packaged Snacks

1. Quest

2. Kind

3. Epic

4. Clif

5. Go Macro

• Protein packed bars

• Allergen-Free

• Vegan

• Meal replacement

• Bite-sized/snack-sized alternatives

Look For

1. Navitas Naturals

2. Annie Chun

3. Eden

4. Go Raw

5. Woodstock

Look For

• Fruit & Veggie Combinations

• Flavor innovation

• Garbanzo Bean, Broad Bean & Tigernut snacks

• Mulberries

Expo West

41


42


Projecting the Future

Mushrooms

The nutritional benefits of medicinal mushrooms are being widely discussed. Look for varieties such as

Reishi, Codyceps, Lions Mane, Maitake, and Chaga.

Tea While packaged teas remain popular, look for loose tea and chai (and chai-

flavored items) to gain popularity.


43



Pastas & Sauces Found in the cooler and freezer, the fresh idea is imparted to the consumer. Ready in minutes for the busiest nights, look for gluten free and non

gluten free options.

Olives

A staple of the Mediterranean diet, olives are becoming a snack of choice and

available in many varieties. Look for these snacks in convenient on-the-go

packaging.


44



Protein Innovation Look for protein in unexpected places like desserts, cookies, and toppings. • Perfect Fit Protein Cookies • Forte High Protein Gelato

Grass-Fed Labeling • Organic Prairie Frozen Organic Beef • Teraswhey Protein Powders • Organic Valley Milk

Protein

Numerous polls and surveys indicate consumers will go out of their way to find products where protein is the primary ingredient.


45



Certified Paleo – As seen at Expo East.

Attributes

Sugar Free, Low Sugar, No Sugar Added, Low Glycemic Index

Vegan – This attribute is gaining momentum

Allergen Free – No longer just Gluten Free.

On The Go – Portable, easy, and healthy.

Protein – Hand-in-hand

with Paleo popularity.

Biodynamica Growing Conditions – Starting to trend.


46



Verified Ingredients

• Pasture Raised Eggs • Products made from Grass-Fed beef and milk • Sustainable & Wild Caught Seafood • …in addition to USDA Organic, Non-GMO Project Verified, Raw, Paleo, and Vegan.


47


48


Featured Products

49


Featured Products

50


Featured Products

51


Featured Products

52


Featured Products

53


Featured Products

54


Featured Products

55


Featured Products

56


Featured Products

57


Featured Products

Natural & Organic Quarterly Trends P -...

Documents

Transcript of Natural & Organic Quarterly Trends P -...