Natural Disaster Reduction in Coastal Lowland Areas · (2) The hurricane impact in USA 2005 zThe...

Natural disaster reduction in coastal lowland areas—Shue Huang

Meteorological Research Institute of Jiangxi ProvinceNanchang 330046, China

[email protected]

Natural Disaster Reduction in Coastal Lowland Areas

Shu-e HUANG

Tuesday, 14 February 2006

Outline

IntroductionNatural disaster in coastal lowland areasNatural Disaster in Coastal Lowland in 2005Disaster Mitigation Measures and ResearchVulnerability Assessment and Response strategies


1. IntroductionNatural disaster reduction in coastal lowland areas—Shue Huang

The rate of climate change expected over the next 100 years is unprecedented in human history:

-- Glaciers are melting and higher temperatures are melting the permafrost-- The rain, is often more intense. -- Floods and storms are more severe-- Heat waves are becoming more extreme-- Rivers freeze later in the winter and melt earlier-- Trees flower earlier in spring, insects emerge faster

and bird lay eggs sooner-- The global mean sea level is rising…


Global Finance Community Joins UN to Tackle Climate Change, the total damage describes the historic record of weather disasters in 2005 according to the report from UNEP ( United Nations Environment Programme) .

Munich Reinsurance Company indicated economic losses from natural catastrophes associated with climate change totaled over US$200 billion in 2005.


Many coastal lowland areas suffered from natural disaster. For example:New Zealand communities are exposed to risk from a number of natural hazards.In central Vietnam, the numerous natural disasters are preventing sustainable development of the region and thus keeping its inhabitant mired in poverty.In USA, Many coastal zones and small islands experience many natural hazards.

These disaster include storms, cyclones, droughts, sea-level rise, tsunami, and climate change, coastal storm surge, extreme tides,hazardous waves, and the resulting coastal inundation and erosion.


The research on natural disasters mainly includes aspects as follows:

Storms:generation processes and behaviour of severe weather systems;frequency and tracks of extra-tropical cyclones; storm prediction models and their accuracy;extreme wind climates and wind modeling.

The research on natural disasters mainly includes aspects as follows:

Storms:generation processes and behaviour of severe weather systems;frequency and tracks of extra-tropical cyclones; storm prediction models and their accuracy;extreme wind climates and wind modeling.


Floods:

rainfall and flood data and risk assessment; flood forecasting using coupled weather and hydrological models; inundation from river and coastal flooding river flow dependence on climate flood mapping to reduce future losses.

Floods:

rainfall and flood data and risk assessment; flood forecasting using coupled weather and hydrological models; inundation from river and coastal flooding river flow dependence on climate flood mapping to reduce future losses.


Sunamis:tsunami generation, propagation and shoreline impacts; tsunami sources: earthquakes, submarine landslides and volcanoes; historical and geological identification of at-risk coastal areas.

Sunamis:tsunami generation, propagation and shoreline impacts; tsunami sources: earthquakes, submarine landslides and volcanoes; historical and geological identification of at-risk coastal areas.

(1) Storm surge

Storm surge has been the number one cause of hurricane (typhoon) related deaths in the past.


2. Natural disaster in coastal lowland areas

(2)Hurricanes

Hurricanes are products of the tropical ocean and atmosphere. As hurricanes move ashore, they bring with them a storm surge of ocean water along the coastline, high winds, tornadoes, and both torrential rains and flooding. Each year on average, ten tropical storms develop over the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, or Gulf of Mexico. About six of these will strengthen enough to become hurricanes.About five hurricanes strike the United States coastline every 3 years.


(3)Tsunamis

Tsunamis are temporary oscillations in sea level with periods longer than wind waves or swell, but shorter than ocean tides. Tsunami are usually created by a sudden movement or rupture of the ocean floor, such as from earthquakes, underwater landslides and underwater volcanic eruptions.


From the area of the disturbance, the waves produced by tsunamis will travel outward in all directions. The wave speed in the open ocean will average 450 miles per hour. Tsunamis reaching heights of more than 100 feet have been recorded.As the waves approach the shallow coastal waters, they appear normal and the speed decreases. Then as the tsunami nears the coastline, it may grow to great height and smash into the shore, causing much destruction.


(4) Floods

Floods are the most common and widespread of all natural disasters. Heavy rains and ocean waters brought ashore by strong winds can cause flooding in excess of 50 cm (20 in) over a 24-hour period. The runoff systems in many cities are unable to handle such an increase in water because of the gentle topography in many of the coastal areas where hurricanes occur.


For example:

Most New Zealand cities are situated on the coast and many of these are beside rivers. Therefore, they are at risk from flooding, either from the sea itself, or from rivers discharging into the sea. A major contributor to coastal flooding around New Zealand are high tides, which are deterministic and able to be forecast well in advance. Most rivers have protection against inundation from the tide itself, but if a storm surge or river flood occurs at the same time as the largest tides, serious flooding can occur.

Natural disaster reduction in coastal lowland areas—Shue Huang Floods

A set of Red-alert dates can be generated when even a minor storm surge or river flood could cause coastal flooding in low-lying areas. Conversely, another set of Carefree dates can be generated when there is little danger of flooding at the coast unless a large storm surge or river flood occurs. Predicted Red-alert and Carefree dates apply not only for New Zealand, but almost everywhere around the world.

Natural disaster reduction in coastal lowland areas—Shue Huang Floods

In the United States, flooding from hurricanes can occur hundreds of miles from the coast placing communities, which would not normally be affected by the strongest hurricane winds, in great danger.


Other(2%) Surge(1%)

Tornado(4%) Offshore(11%)

Surf(11%) Wind(12%)

Freshwater floods(59%)

Floods

Freshwater floods accounted for more than half (59%) of U.S. Over the past 30 years, 78% of children killed by tropical cyclones drowned in freshwater floods.

(1) Indian Ocean Earthquake-Tsunami 2005

the early hours of the morning of Sunday 26 December 2004 a massive earthquake measuring 9.0 on the Richter scale struck the west coast of northern Sumatra. The quake triggered powerful tsunamis reaching ten metres in height, and these moved through neighbouring parts of the Indian Ocean at over 500 kilometres an hour wrecking coastal areas in India, Indonesia, Sri Lanka, Thailand and Maldives, as well as in Myanmar, Seychelles, and Somalia.


3. Natural disaster in coastallowland areas in 2005

Indian Ocean Earthquake-Tsunami 2005


This 1m panchromatic image near Trincomalee, Sri Lanka was collected by ORBIMAGE'sOrbView-3 satelliteMonday, Dec. 27th

2004. The image shows inland flooding and major structural damage caused by the giant wave.

Indian Ocean Earthquake-Tsunami 2005


These 1m panchromatic images taken from ORBIMAGE'sOrbView-3 satellite show the identical area near Madras, India before and after the impact of the tsunami on December 26th. The shoreline appears to have changed dramatically in the two week period, a presumed result of the powerful impact of the tsunami.

Before After

December 11th

2004December 28th

2004

The 26 December Tsunami is unique among large disasters in recorded human history, not only because of the sheer number of causalities and massive displacement of people, but also because of the unprecedented international donor response and the logistic challenges faced by international organizations and aid agencies in organizing and coordinating relief efforts.


The tsunamis flooded coastal areas and wiped away homes and buildings, roads and bridges, water and electricity supplies, crops, irrigation and fishery infrastructure, food and fuel networks. With a death toll of about 350 thousand, the Indian Ocean tsunami is by far the worst natural disaster of that kind in the recorded human history.


The trauma caused by this devastating catastrophe cannot be underestimated.The disaster predominantly affected poor communities where people lived on marginal land. Their livelihoods have been destroyed and they have been stripped of the few assets they possessed.


Worldwide solidarity with the affected populations has been swift and generous, and must continue well beyond the immediate disaster period. This flash appeal reflects the efforts of some forty UN (United Nations ) agencies and NGOs (non-governmental organizations) to plan and implement a strategic, efficient, and coordinated response to the needs of some 5 million people.Programmes focus on keeping people alive and supporting their efforts to recover, for example in the agriculture, education, health, food, shelter, or water and sanitation sectors.


Apart from the sheer number of deaths, the Indian Ocean tsunami has at least two unique features, which make it a valuable laboratory for the study of disaster management issues in the new millennium.First, it is the world’s first truly global disaster, with lives shattered in a dozen of countries in two different continents.Second, the response to the disaster has also been global in a way rarely seen before, with tens of millions of ordinary citizens reaching into their pockets to send aid, in addition to donor governments and agencies.


(2) The hurricane impact in USA 2005

The hurricane season in USA 2005 has been the busiest one ever recorded.


Table 1: The total of tropical storm with names for the 2005 Hurricane Season in USA, in comparison to 2004

101526Total of Tropical Storms with Names(TS+H)

Hurricanes average(1950-2002)

2004 season

2005 Season

Parameter

resulting in eleven federal disaster declarations.


Table 2: 2005 Federal disaster declarations of hurricanes in USA

FloridaLouisianaTexas

North Carolina

Alabama Florida

Louisiana Mississippi

AlabamaFlorida

Mississippi

state

WilmaRitaOpheliaKatrinaDennisHurricane name


hurricane Katrina

Hurricane Katrina was an extraordinarily powerful and deadly hurricane that carved a wide swath of catastrophic damage.It became one of the most devastating storms, taking hundreds of lives across the Gulf Coast and forcing the largest relocation in American history.


Based on data available from NHC (the National Hurricane Center ) in USA, here are the top 5 storms ranked by total damage in 2004 dollars:

(1) Katrina $125B;(2) Andrew $26.5B;(3) Charlie $15B; (4) Ivan $14.2B; (5) Frances $8.9B.


New Orleans, August 31, 2005 - Victims of Hurricane Katrina continue to be evacuated out of the city of New Orleans by bus well into the night.

hurricane Katrina photo gallery(all photos source from Federal Emergency Management Agency ,

FEMA,USA )


New Orleans, LA, August 31, 2005 -- Residents are evacuated from their homes by a FEMA Urban Search and Rescue team from Florida.


New Orleans, LA, August 31, 2005 -- Members of the FEMA Urban Search and Rescue Task Force begin their mission to assist residents affected by Hurricane Katrina.


Houston, TX., 9/1/2005 -- Thousands of hurricane Katrina survivors are at the Astrodome after the Superdome became unsafe following the levee breaks in New Orleans.


Houston, TX, September 2, 2005 -- Stockpiles of clothing, food, toothpaste, shoes, diapers and hundreds of other items are sorted in the Reliant Center for distribution to families arriving fromNew Orleans on the FEMA organized bus caravan.


Biloxi, Miss., September 3, 2005 -- marking a damaged house after searching for victims of Hurricane Katrina. The gulf coast of Mississippi sustained extreme damage from the hurricane.


New Orleans, La., September 3, 2005 -- New Orleans is being evacuated as a result of floods from hurricane Katrina.


(3) The disaster impact in China 2005

China suffered from storm surges, floods, rainstorms, winds and hails In 2005.According to incomplete statistics by division of forecast and disaster relief under CMA (China Meteorological Administration), the direct economic losses from meteorological disasters are RMB186 Billion (almost US$ 23 Billion), The damage 2005 is higher than 2004.


The Typhoon impact in China 2005

The disasters of typhoon are severe in 2005 and eleven coastal Provinces all suffered from meteorological disasters, the economic damage is one of the severest disaster years in coastal lowland area since 1949. The direct economic losses only from storm surges are high RMB33 billion (almost US$4.1 billion). There have been 9 named storms this season (See table 4.) and six out of eight tropical storms landing in China belonged to strong typhoon.


The Typhoon impacting in China 2005

FujianHainanGuangdongGuangxi

HainanGuangdong

Zhejiang, ShanghaiJiangsu, Shandong

Province

Longwang龙王

Damrey达维

Vicente韦森特

Khanun卡努

Typhoon name

FujiangZhejiang

GuangdongFujiang

Zhejiang, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Shandong, Tianjing, Hebei, Liaoning

GuangdongHainan

Liaoning, Hebei, Tianjing, Shandong, Jiangsu, Shanghai, Fujian, Zhejiang, Guangdong, Guangxi, Hainan

Province

Talim泰利

Sanvu珊瑚

Matsa麦莎

Washi天鹰

Haitang海棠

Typhoon name

Table 4: 2005 national disaster declarations of typhoon in China


Here are some photos of typhoon impacts in China 2005Source from Xinhua news agency.


4. Natural Disaster Mitigation Measures and Research

The purpose of disaster mitigation in most coastal lowland area was to identify geographic areas and development sectors that are at risk of natural disasters and to propose solutions to the development problem of natural disaster vulnerability.

These solutions fall within the realm of natural disaster preparedness and natural disaster mitigation.


It is impossible to prevent most natural disasters.

On the other hand, natural disaster mitigation, the reduction of the effects of natural disasters on humankind and its environment, is often attainable.

Natural disaster mitigation measures must be incorporated into the design and implementation of all development projects and programs in most coastal lowland area if development is to be sustained.


To optimize natural-disaster mitigation, a mix of non-structural and structural strategies must be considered.

Typical non-structural natural disaster measures include:disaster response including rescue and evacuation planning; disaster area mapping and zoning; disaster warning systems; grassroots disaster preparedness training and planning; river basin planning.


Typical structural natural-disaster measures include:

reservoir and dam safety;

river and estuary dykes;

coastal and river erosion protection;

estuary and port dredging;

saltwater intrusion barriers;

new flood control reservoirs.


For hurricane disaster, there are a variety of measures that can be taken.Simple construction measures, such as the use of storm shutters over exposed glass, and the addition of hurricane straps to hold the roof of a structure to its walls and foundation, have proven highly effective in lowering damages when hurricanes strike. More complex mitigation measures can be pursued to further reduce a property's susceptibility. For example, coastal homes and businesses can be elevated to permit coastal storm surge to pass under living and working spaces.


Communities can further reduce their vulnerability to hurricanes through the adoption and enforcement of wind- and flood-resistant building codes.

Sound land-use planning can also ensure that structures are not built in the highest hazard areas.

Careful selection and ranking of programs and projects is required to develop an optimal natural disaster mitigation strategy.


By combining the expertise of atmospheric, river and coastal specialists：

we will identify the likelihood of extreme events, monitor and understand key elements of weather, river and coastal systems,

identify vulnerable hot-spots with increased risk, and develop computer models of the hazards, leading to improved forecasts and warnings.

Working with central and regional government, we will translate the research and models into risk evaluation, timely warning systems and hazard maps.


Remote sensing techniques for collecting environmental data have many applicationsSome of the remote sensing datasets, techniques, and tools are using to support our natural hazard and risk assessment work. During community consultations, people were able to locate property and other features on the images and use these to show which areas were inundated during particular cyclones.


We can build up a picture of flooding during cyclone events and identify high risk zones. We also use the imagery in mapping building and community infrastructure characteristics and in presenting future risk reduction initiatives.

The use of satellite-derived topography has allowed us to map flood risk over large areas for the insurance industry.

Space shuttle also helps flood risk modeling.


The application of remote-sensing is essential for hazard forecasting. For example,NIWA,NewZealand use radar data to estimate rainfall, and then use those estimates to validate the predictions of computer weather models.

One major research focus is ‘data assimilation’.

In essence, by using satellite data as well as standard weather observing systems, which in turn improves forecast accuracy, computer models start with the best possible picture of current conditions.


Early warning system built is necessary for a disaster early occurring warning, especially for Tsunamis.The objectives of early warning are (a) Rapid boosting of the capacities for action and planning by public authorities; (b) Linking the available technical capacities on natural disasters with humanitarian and emergency management capacities.


The activities of early warning are quickly assess the disaster warning capacities of the region, establish interim networks among practitioners and authorities, conduct regional meetings of relevant practitioners for both training and coordination aims, develop interim information materials for practitioners and community leaders, and provide necessary coordination and support for the affected countries.


We should also develop some researches on the prediction and monitoring of natural disaster.

Understanding extreme weather systems (storm development, wind, rain) and developing meteorological computer models to better predict extreme weather events;


Improving the knowledge of floods and droughts, ways of establishing their risk in different regions, and developing river flood and flood-plain inundation models;Understanding the dynamic nature of coastal and continental shelf environments, their propensity for generating extreme (hazardous) events, and the effects of climate change, and translating that information into better warning systems, community awareness and preparedness programmes, and consistent planning and policy for coastal margins.


5. Vulnerability Assessment and Response Strategies

During a hurricane, homes, crops, businesses, public buildings, and infrastructure may be damaged or destroyed by high winds and high waves.

Sea surges caused by storms pose a hazard to farmers whose dwellings or farmlands are near the coast.

Floods have severe economic and social impacts. Damage to crops and property occurs as a result of fields and houses standing in water for long periods of time.


Hazard mitigation planning is an important aspect of a successful mitigation program.

States and communities use the hazard mitigation planning process to set short and long-range mitigation goals and objectives.

Hazard mitigation planning is a collaborative process whereby vulnerability to the hazards are assessed, and consensus reached on how to minimize or eliminate the effects of these hazards.


Vulnerability to impacts is a multidimensional concept, encompass passing biogeophysical, socioeconomic, and political factors.

The common methodology defines vulnerability as “the degree of incapability to cope with the consequences of climate change and accelerated sea-level rise”.

The common methodology has helped to focus the attention of many coastal nations on climate change and has contributed to long-term thinking about the coastal zone.


International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR) put forward the framework for action 2005-2015 (Also call the Hyogo Framework ). The Framework for Action recommends to:

① Strengthen the Implementation of social safety; ② net mechanisms to assist the poor and other

populations affected by disasters; ③ Promote diversified income options for

populations in high risks areas to reduce their vulnerability to hazards;


④ Promote the development of financial risk sharing mechanisms particularly insurance and reinsurance against disasters;

⑤ Promote the establishment of public private partnerships to better engage the private sector in disaster risk reduction activities.


To achieve the Millennium Developments Goals and reduce poverty, we must find mechanisms that work and actively implement them. There are many problems in the disaster deduction, such as development problems, poverty problems and institutional problems. Development is extremely difficult to sustain when progress is repeatedly set back by natural disasters.An effective natural disaster mitigation strategy must incorporate opportunities for socio-economic development into its policy framework and its mitigation plans.


By soliciting the participation of the people most directly affected by natural disasters through a grassroots participatory approach, the afflicted communities will become empowered and share a sense of ownership of the projects they have developed. This empowerment and self-determination are the foundations of sound and sustainable socio-economic development.


For example: Tsunami Early Warning to determine which project profiles would constitute the Program for a Tsunami Early Warning System.

The following components were identified as a result of this program:

① Goals② Prediction and Warning Program ③ Hazard Mitigation Program④ Research Program


Goalsa) Improve strategies for disaster detection,

forecasting, warning, preparedness and mitigation;

b) Improve and further develop existing disaster early warning systems;

c) Increase efforts to map the region, develop models and conduct research in order to improve forecasting and preparedness, and mitigation and response measures in the event of disaster;


d) Improve or increase the level of education and training on disasters, and ensure that people receive disaster warnings;

e) Provide technical assistance and other support;f) Improve national, regional and international

coordination efforts for preparedness and warnings, as well as other related hazards in the coastal areas.


Prediction and Warning Programa) Analyze the performance of disaster-related

networks in countries of the region regarding their capacity for processing data.

b) Implement technologies for incorporating broadband stations into a visual network for processing data;

c) Develop and implement methods for rapid broadcasting of warning messages to the population;


d) Establish processes that guaranty the receipt of messages from different sectors;

e) Prepare national and regional communication and warning plans.


Hazard Mitigation Programa) Create the Regional Coordination Committee,

which will be made up of National Emergency Commissions;

b) Prepare a plan to develop educational and social communication processes for disaster reduction, as part of the early warning system;

c) Establish strategies for disaster risk reduction.


Research Programa) Establish national research programs in order to

develop or apply appropriate science and technology for the detection, forecasting, communication and mitigation of disasters.

b) These should include measurement, information and communication techniques and technologies, as well as processes for data collection and analysis, the assessment for disaster detection methods, and numeric modeling for predicting the potential effects of disasters.

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