NATIONWIDE SURVEY OF 3,000 LIKELY VOTERS*: The … · nationwide survey of 3,000 likely voters,...
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NATIONWIDE SURVEY OF 3,000 LIKELY VOTERS*: The Standard Poll
MARCH 26-APRIL 1, 2016
*Likely Voters = Registered Voters with Biometrics and Sure to Vote in the May 2016 Elections
NATIONWIDE SURVEY OF 3,000 LIKELY VOTERS, MARCH 26-APRIL1, 2016
SAMPLE SIZES, ERROR MARGINS AND SAMPLING DISTRIBUTION
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AREA SAMPLE SIZE
ERROR MARGINS
NO. OF PROVINCES
NO. OF HIGHLY
URBANIZED CITIES
NO. OF MUNICI
PALITIES/ CITIES
NO. OF BARANGAYS
PHILIPPINES 3000 ±1.8% 79 40 270 600NCR 300 ±6% 17 17 60NORTH/CENTRAL LUZON 700 ±4% 21 5 61 140
CORDILLERA ADMINISTRATIVE REGIONS (CAR) 100 ±10% 6 1 10 20ILOCOS (REGION1) 200 ±7% 4 1 20 40
CAGAYAN VALLEY (REGION2) 100 ±10% 4 1 10 20
CENTRAL LUZON (REGION3) 300 ±6% 7 2 21 60
SOUTH LUZON/BICOL 700 ±4% 16 3 52 140CALABARZON (Region 4a) 400 ±5% 5 1 21 80MIMAROPA (Region 4b) 100 ±10% 5 1 11 20
BICOL (Region 5) 200 ±7% 6 1 20 40
VISAYAS 600 ±4% 16 7 70 120WESTERN VISAYAS (Region 6) 150 ±8% 5 1 15 30
NEGROS ISLAND REGION (NIR) 100 ±10% 2 1 14 20CENTRAL VISAYAS (Region 7) 200 ±7% 3 3 24 40
EASTERN VISAYAS (Region 8) 150 ±8% 6 2 17 30
MINDANAO 700 ±4% 26 8 70 140ZAMBOANGA PENINSULA (Region 9) 100 ±10% 3 2 10 20NORTHERN MINDANAO (Region 10) 150 ±8% 5 2 15 30
DAVAO REGION (Region 11) 150 ±8% 5 1 10 30
SOCCSKSARGEN (Region 12) 100 ±10% 4 2 15 20CARAGA (Region 13) 100 ±10% 4 1 10 20
AUTONOMOUS REGION OF MUSLIM MINDANAO (ARMM) 100 ±10% 5 0 10 20
NATIONWIDE SURVEY OF 3,000 LIKELY VOTERS, MARCH 26-APRIL1, 2016
VOTER PREFERENCE
FOR PRESIDENT
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NATIONWIDE SURVEY OF 3,000 LIKELY VOTERS, MARCH 26-APRIL1, 2016
Voter Preference for President: Philippines
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29%$26%$ 27%$
20%$
24%$
30%$
22%$ 23%$
18%$
22%$ 22%$ 21%$
2%$ 2%$ 2%$
4%$ 4%$2%$
0%#
5%#
10%#
15%#
20%#
25%#
30%#
35%#
40%#
45%#
50%#
Jan#2016# Feb#2016# Mar#2016#
Poe Duterte Binay Roxas Santiago Undecided
NATIONWIDE SURVEY OF 3,000 LIKELY VOTERS, MARCH 26-APRIL1, 2016
Voter Preference for President: Ranking
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TOTAL PHILIPPINES RANK PH Vote Share
Lower Limit
Upper Limit
Margin of Error
3. DUTERTE, Rody (PDPLBN) 1-2 30% 28% 32% 1.64%
4. POE, Grace (IND) 1-2 27% 25% 29% 1.59%
5. ROXAS, Mar Daang Matuwid (LP) 3 21% 20% 23% 1.46%
1. BINAY, Jojo (UNA) 4 18% 17% 19% 1.37%
2. DEFENSOR-SANTIAGO, Miriam (PRP) 5 2% 2% 3% 0.50%
Population (N) = 54,363,844; 95% Confidence level (z-1.96); Sample size (n) =3000
NATIONWIDE SURVEY OF 3,000 LIKELY VOTERS, MARCH 26-APRIL1, 2016
Voter Preference for President: NCR
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35%$
28%$ 30%$
22%$ 23%$
30%$
22%$
28%$
23%$
10%$12%$ 11%$
5%$ 4%$2%$
6%$ 4%$ 4%$
0%#
5%#
10%#
15%#
20%#
25%#
30%#
35%#
40%#
45%#
50%#
Jan#2016# Feb#2016# Mar#2016#
Poe Duterte Binay Roxas Santiago Undecided
NATIONWIDE SURVEY OF 3,000 LIKELY VOTERS, MARCH 26-APRIL1, 2016
Voter Preference for President: North & Central Luzon
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37%$34%$ 34%$
7%$
11%$
18%$
31%$33%$
28%$
17%$ 16%$ 16%$
3%$ 3%$3%$4%$ 4%$
1%$0%#
5%#
10%#
15%#
20%#
25%#
30%#
35%#
40%#
45%#
50%#
Jan#2016# Feb#2016# Mar#2016#
Poe Duterte Binay Roxas Santiago Undecided
NATIONWIDE SURVEY OF 3,000 LIKELY VOTERS, MARCH 26-APRIL1, 2016
Voter Preference for President: North & Central Luzon Regions
Feb2016
Mar2016
Feb2016
Mar2016
Feb2016
Mar2016
Feb2016
Mar2016
Feb2016
Mar2016 1%
6%
4%
4%
2%
3%
1%
4%
3%
2%
1%
1%
4%
4%
8%
7%
3%
3%
20%
26%
50%
62%
29%
30%
28%
32%
28%
33%
18%
20%
11%
6%
15%
16%
16%
11%
16%
16%
36%
34%
25%
20%
38%
40%
31%
39%
34%
34%
23%
13%
13%
7%
11%
11%
15%
8%
18%
11%
Duterte Poe RoxasBinay Santiago Undecided
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NORTH & CENTRAL LUZON
CORDILLERA ADMIN REGION (CAR)
ILOCOS (Region1)
CAGAYAN VALLEY (Region2)
CENTRAL LUZON (Region3)
NATIONWIDE SURVEY OF 3,000 LIKELY VOTERS, MARCH 26-APRIL1, 2016
Voter Preference for President: South Luzon & Bicol
9
38%$
32%$
39%$
12%$ 14%$
19%$
23%$
27%$
18%$
21%$ 21%$ 21%$
1%$ 2%$ 1%$
5%$ 4%$2%$
0%#
5%#
10%#
15%#
20%#
25%#
30%#
35%#
40%#
45%#
50%#
Jan#2016# Feb#2016# Mar#2016#
Poe Duterte Binay Roxas Santiago Undecided
NATIONWIDE SURVEY OF 3,000 LIKELY VOTERS, MARCH 26-APRIL1, 2016
Voter Preference for President: South Luzon & Bicol Regions
Feb2016
Mar2016
Feb2016
Mar2016
Feb2016
Mar2016
Feb2016
Mar2016 2%
8%
1%
3%
3%
2%
4%
2%
3%
1%
1%
3%
1%
2%
15%
18%
12%
18%
21%
33%
18%
27%
35%
34%
32%
21%
12%
15%
21%
21%
37%
31%
33%
31%
41%
33%
39%
32%
9%
7%
20%
28%
22%
13%
19%
14%
Duterte Poe RoxasBinay Santiago Undecided
10
SOUTH LUZON & BICOL
CALABARZON (Region 4a)
MIMAROPA (Region 4b)
BICOL (Region 5)
NATIONWIDE SURVEY OF 3,000 LIKELY VOTERS, MARCH 26-APRIL1, 2016
Voter Preference for President: Visayas
11
23%$
18%$ 18%$17%$
23%$
31%$
18%$ 17%$
13%$
35%$36%$
35%$
2%$ 2%$ 2%$
5%$ 4%$2%$
0%#
5%#
10%#
15%#
20%#
25%#
30%#
35%#
40%#
45%#
50%#
Jan#2016# Feb#2016# Mar#2016#
Poe Duterte Binay Roxas Santiago Undecided
NATIONWIDE SURVEY OF 3,000 LIKELY VOTERS, MARCH 26-APRIL1, 2016
Voter Preference for President: Visayas Regions
Feb2016
Mar2016
Feb2016
Mar2016
Feb2016
Mar2016
Feb2016
Mar2016
Feb2016
Mar2016
2%
2%
5%
6%
8%
1%
2%
4%
4%
1%
1%
3%
2%
4%
3%
2%
2%
33%
27%
4%
14%
7%
13%
9%
15%
13%
17%
14%
25%
27%
28%
42%
45%
60%
51%
35%
36%
18%
23%
10%
12%
31%
16%
15%
24%
18%
18%
35%
19%
55%
40%
17%
18%
4%
7%
31%
23%
Duterte Poe RoxasBinay Santiago Undecided
12
VISAYAS
WESTERN VISAYAS (Region 6)
NEGROS ISLAND REGION (NIR)
CENTRAL VISAYAS (Region 7)
EASTERN VISAYAS (Region 8)
NATIONWIDE SURVEY OF 3,000 LIKELY VOTERS, MARCH 26-APRIL1, 2016
Voter Preference for President: Mindanao
13
17%$ 17%$
13%$
44%$
49%$
53%$
16%$
11%$ 11%$
20%$ 20%$ 20%$
1%$ 1%$ 1%$0%$2%$ 3%$
0%#
10%#
20%#
30%#
40%#
50%#
60%#
Jan#2016# Feb#2016# Mar#2016#
Poe Duterte Binay Roxas Santiago Undecided
NATIONWIDE SURVEY OF 3,000 LIKELY VOTERS, MARCH 26-APRIL1, 2016
Voter Preference for President: Mindanao Regions
Feb2016
Mar2016
Feb2016
Mar2016
Feb2016
Mar2016
Feb2016
Mar2016
Feb2016
Mar2016
Feb2016
Mar2016
Feb2016
Mar2016 1%
4%
2%
10%
1%
1%
2%
3%
2%
1%
3%
2%
2%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
27%
16%
6%
8%
9%
17%
3%
2%
11%
9%
16%
20%
11%
11%
23%
15%
30%
19%
13%
21%
5%
11%
23%
29%
31%
23%
20%
20%
14%
20%
5%
27%
4%
13%
5%
6%
20%
16%
31%
25%
13%
17%
35%
45%
57%
43%
63%
47%
85%
79%
43%
43%
21%
30%
53%
49%
Duterte Poe RoxasBinay Santiago Undecided
14
MINDANAO
ZAMBOANGA PENINSULA (Region 9)
NORTHERN MINDANAO (Region 10)
DAVAO REGION (Region 11)
SOCCSKSARGEN (Region 12)
CARAGA (Region 13)
ARMM
NATIONWIDE SURVEY OF 3,000 LIKELY VOTERS, MARCH 26-APRIL1, 2016
Voter Preference for President: Urban
15
35%$
27%$ 29%$
21%$24%$
33%$
22%$
24%$
18%$
15%$
18%$
16%$
3%$ 4%$2%$
4%$ 3%$ 3%$
0%#
5%#
10%#
15%#
20%#
25%#
30%#
35%#
40%#
45%#
50%#
Jan#2016# Feb#2016# Mar#2016#
Poe Duterte Binay Roxas Santiago Undecided
NATIONWIDE SURVEY OF 3,000 LIKELY VOTERS, MARCH 26-APRIL1, 2016
Voter Preference for President: Rural
16
25%$ 24%$ 25%$
20%$
25%$28%$
22%$22%$
18%$
27%$ 25%$25%$
2%$ 3%$2%$
4%$
1%$ 2%$
0%#
5%#
10%#
15%#
20%#
25%#
30%#
35%#
40%#
45%#
50%#
Jan#2016# Feb#2016# Mar#2016#
Poe Duterte Binay Roxas Santiago Undecided
NATIONWIDE SURVEY OF 3,000 LIKELY VOTERS, MARCH 26-APRIL1, 2016
Voter Preference for President: Classes ABC
17
30%$
21%$21%$
27%$30%$
37%$
20%$
21%$21%$
15%$ 16%$ 19%$
2%$4%$
1%$
6%$8%$
3%$
0%#
5%#
10%#
15%#
20%#
25%#
30%#
35%#
40%#
45%#
50%#
Jan#2016# Feb#2016# Mar#2016#
Poe Duterte Binay Roxas Santiago Undecided
NATIONWIDE SURVEY OF 3,000 LIKELY VOTERS, MARCH 26-APRIL1, 2016
Voter Preference for President: Class D
18
30%$26%$ 26%$
18%$
24%$
30%$
22%$23%$
18%$
22%$22%$
22%$
3%$ 2%$ 2%$
4%$ 3%$ 2%$
0%#
5%#
10%#
15%#
20%#
25%#
30%#
35%#
40%#
45%#
50%#
Jan#2016# Feb#2016# Mar#2016#
Poe Duterte Binay Roxas Santiago Undecided
NATIONWIDE SURVEY OF 3,000 LIKELY VOTERS, MARCH 26-APRIL1, 2016
Voter Preference for President: Class E
19
27%$ 26%$29%$
22%$23%$
29%$
23%$22%$
18%$
23%$ 23%$
20%$
1%$ 1%$
3%$3%$4%$
1%$0%#
5%#
10%#
15%#
20%#
25%#
30%#
35%#
40%#
45%#
50%#
Jan#2016# Feb#2016# Mar#2016#
Poe Duterte Binay Roxas Santiago Undecided
NATIONWIDE SURVEY OF 3,000 LIKELY VOTERS, MARCH 26-APRIL1, 2016
Voter Preference for President: Males
20
27%$
22%$
24%$23%$
27%$
34%$
24%$ 24%$
18%$21%$
21%$20%$
2%$ 2%$ 1%$
4%$ 4%$2%$
0%#
5%#
10%#
15%#
20%#
25%#
30%#
35%#
40%#
45%#
50%#
Jan#2016# Feb#2016# Mar#2016#
Poe Duterte Binay Roxas Santiago Undecided
NATIONWIDE SURVEY OF 3,000 LIKELY VOTERS, MARCH 26-APRIL1, 2016
Voter Preference for President: Females
21
32%$29%$
29%$
18%$21%$
26%$
20%$
22%$
18%$
23%$ 22%$ 22%$
3%$ 2%$3%$
4%$ 3%$2%$
0%#
5%#
10%#
15%#
20%#
25%#
30%#
35%#
40%#
45%#
50%#
Jan#2016# Feb#2016# Mar#2016#
Poe Duterte Binay Roxas Santiago Undecided
NATIONWIDE SURVEY OF 3,000 LIKELY VOTERS, MARCH 26-APRIL1, 2016
Voter Preference for President: 18-34 years old
22
34%$
29%$ 30%$
20%$
28%$
34%$
22%$ 20%$
18%$18%$18%$
14%$
3%$ 3%$2%$
2%$ 3%$ 2%$
0%#
5%#
10%#
15%#
20%#
25%#
30%#
35%#
40%#
45%#
50%#
Jan#2016# Feb#2016# Mar#2016#
Poe Duterte Binay Roxas Santiago Undecided
NATIONWIDE SURVEY OF 3,000 LIKELY VOTERS, MARCH 26-APRIL1, 2016
Voter Preference for President: 35-54 years old
23
28%$24%$
25%$22%$
24%$
30%$
20%$23%$
18%$
24%$23%$
23%$
2%$ 2%$ 3%$
4%$ 4%$2%$
0%#
5%#
10%#
15%#
20%#
25%#
30%#
35%#
40%#
45%#
50%#
Jan#2016# Feb#2016# Mar#2016#
Poe Duterte Binay Roxas Santiago Undecided
NATIONWIDE SURVEY OF 3,000 LIKELY VOTERS, MARCH 26-APRIL1, 2016
Voter Preference for President: 55 years & older
24
25%$
23%$
25%$
18%$
20%$
25%$25%$ 26%$
18%$
24%$ 24%$
27%$
2%$ 2%$ 3%$
6%$ 5%$
2%$
0%#
5%#
10%#
15%#
20%#
25%#
30%#
35%#
40%#
45%#
50%#
Jan#2016# Feb#2016# Mar#2016#
Poe Duterte Binay Roxas Santiago Undecided
NATIONWIDE SURVEY OF 3,000 LIKELY VOTERS, MARCH 26-APRIL1, 2016
Voter Preference for President by Religious Affiliation
25
PH
Catholic
Iglesia ni Cristo
Born Again
Muslim
Aglipayan
Others 5%
13%
1%
5%
7%
2%
2%
3%
1%
1%
2%
2%
11%
8%
28%
20%
18%
18%
18%
19%
34%
26%
20%
13%
21%
21%
20%
33%
11%
24%
38%
27%
27%
42%
13%
33%
31%
24%
30%
30%
Duterte Poe RoxasBinay Santiago Undecided
NATIONWIDE SURVEY OF 3,000 LIKELY VOTERS, MARCH 26-APRIL1, 2016
Voter Preference for President by Ethnicity
26
PH
Tagalog
Cebuano
Ilocano
Ilonggo
Bicolano
Waray
Pangasinense
Kapampangan
Others 1%
2%
1%
3%
6%
3%
2%
2%
2%
1%
1%
1%
3%
3%
1%
3%
2%
23%
23%
23%
39%
19%
7%
32%
7%
20%
18%
23%
13%
14%
11%
29%
44%
14%
23%
14%
21%
17%
30%
49%
18%
38%
19%
32%
16%
36%
27%
35%
31%
12%
32%
11%
22%
15%
50%
25%
30%
Duterte Poe RoxasBinay Santiago Undecided