‘Save the Children’ CEO, Charlie McCormack, visited Yemen for high-level advocacy, as well as some frank conversation with Yemeni children about their situation. Save the Children was the first international NGO in Yemen, arriving in 1964, and has been firmly committed since. It is launching a global Child Survival Campaign entitled “Save the Children: Every One”, which sees basic health and nutrition initiatives to curb child mortality rates.

Subscribe to National Yemen and Advertise for Free01 251650 01 238070 01 238380 01 251651

Five Killed, Seven Injured in Abyan Ambushes, Clashes

Sunday, Oct 17, 2010ISSue 18

PrIce: yer 30

www.natIonalyemen.comNationalYemenThe Facts As They Are

Unemployed Youth in Yemen: Ticking Time Bomb

Yemen Must Diversify – But How?

Decrypting Yemen’s LNG Future

Iranian Oilmen Reflect on Mexico Gulf Spill05 1306 11

By Shukri Hussein - NY Abyan Correspondent

NY Staff

Independent journalism, objective insight

The spate of clashes and am-bushes continued with intense firefights between security forces and alleged Al-Qaeda militants. A further four sol-diers were killed, the latest re-ports indicate at skirmishes which occurred at around 10am on Saturday 16th October.

In addition to the attacks, an-other ambush which targeted another security director took place yesterday (Saturday) af-ternoon. The attack was unsuc-cessful in assassinating the se-curity director of Ahwar directorate, in the east of Abyan governorate, Brigadier Obaid Ali Mubarak.

Confrontations between se-curity forces and Al-Qaeda mil-

itants in Abyan governorate took place last Thursday in Mudyah city, 230 kilometers to the northeast of the capital Zan-jibar. The clashes resulted in the death of five people, includ-ing the brother of the governor of Abyan, in addition to the in-jury of seven soldiers.

The confrontations between the two sides came after rela-tive calm of more than a month since prior military operations in the governorate.

Ali Al-Maysari, the brother of Abyan governor Ahmed Al-Maysari was killed in an am-bush against the governor’s motorcade set up on the high way in Al-Jaizah region, four kilometers away from Mudyah

city. Al-Maysaru was on his way

to the directorate to offer his condolences over the death of the director of security, Major Abdullah Al-Bahm, who was killed that morning during his attempt, along with a number of soldiers, to disperse a dem-onstration that was planned by the southern movement on the anniversary of October 14th (the revolution anniversary).

Upon the motorcade’s arriv-al to the Al-Jaizah area the gov-ernor, along with the security director of the province, Briga-dier Abdul-Razzaq Al-Mar-wani, was taken aback to find a

Riyadh—A former Guanta-namo prisoner who finished a Saudi rehabilitation program then joined al-Qaida network in Yemen has surrendered to Sau-di authorities, the Kingdom’s Interior Ministry said Friday.

Jaber Jabran al-Fayfi was in-cluded in a list of 85 wanted militants issued by the kingdom in February, 2009.

According to a statement by the ministry’s spokesman car-ried by SPA news agency, Fayfi “expressed regret...and voiced

willingness to return home and give himself up to security agencies.”

“The concerned agencies co-ordinated with the security au-thorities in Yemen, which se-cured his return to the kingdom, where he was reunited with his family,” the statement said.

Fayfi was one of Saudi pris-oners repatriated from the U.S. Guantanamo detention camp to join a rehabilitation program. After completing the course, he fled to Yemen, where a presence

of al- Qaida is growing.A senior Saudi security offi-

cial said in June that about 25 out of 120 former Saudi detain-ees from Guantanamo Bay camp returned to militancy after passing a rehabilitation pro-gram for al-Qaida militants in the kingdom. Around 11 of those released have gone to Ye-men.

Saudi Arabia has enrolled the ex-Guantanamo detainees along with other al-Qaida sus-pects in a rehabilitation pro-

gram which included ideologi-cal review by clerics and financial aid to help them start over.

The project was attended by about 300 extremists.

Saudi Arabia, a U.S. ally in the Middle East and the world’s top oil producer and exporter, has been battling Islamist mili-tants, spearheaded by al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), since they launched a spate of bombings and shoot-ings in May 2003.

Wanted militant surrenders to Saudi Arabia

Second Extremist “Inspire” Webzine Causes Controversy

The “Inspire” online Eng-lish language magazine, pur-portedly issued by Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) recently issued its second edi-tion, with much of its contents concerning events in Yemen, including the recent skirmishes in Abyan, as well as much of its literature dedicated to radi-calisation.

The webzine was produced by “Al-Malahem Media”, the AQAP media and propaganda arm, and features a dateline of “Fall 1431 / 2010”, although reports first surfaced of its ap-pearance on Tuesday 12th Oc-tober – the 10th anniversary of the USS Cole bombing in the port of Aden.

Media reports since have picked up on the disturbing

features of the webzine, such as advice on how to “mow down” enemies by fixing sharp objects to a pickup truck.

The first issue, released summer 2010, caused similar controversy, with basic guide-lines on how to make make-shift explosives.

The first magazine was “clearly intended for the aspir-ing Jihadist in the US or UK who may be the next Fort Hood murderer,” said Bruce Riedel of the Brookings Institute, a Washington-based think tank.

Riedel was referring to the US Army Major, psychiatrist Nidal Hasan, who conducted a mass shooting against other US troops at Fort Hood. Hasan was later discovered to have had prior email correspon-

Continued on ( 1 )

Continued on ( 3 )

National Yemen is proud to present its first supplementary publication, “Precious Resources: Rich Legacies & Invaluable Fu-tures.” The full colour publication evaluat-ing the oil, gas and minerals industry in Ye-men, is over a 100 pages long, and features in-depth analysis through interviews, fea-ture articles and graphic / statistical analy-sis. The supplement is the first of many, and is distributed free to all subscription hold-ers. If you would like to purchase a copy of the publication please contact info@na-tionalyemen.com.

Shamil Bank Invests 6 Bn Riyals in Islamic Banking Software

Path Solutions, provider of Is-lamic banking software solutions, announced that Shamil Bank of Ye-men and Bahrain (“SBYB”), the third largest Islamic bank in Yemen, with a fully paid capital of 6bn Ye-meni Riyals, has gone live with Path Solutions’ iMAL Islamic core bank-ing suite.

SBYB is focused on expanding the range of Islamic products avail-able to retail and corporate custom-ers and improving the level of cus-tomer experience. “We want to position ourselves as a leading pro-vider of innovative products and customer-friendly Islamic banking services in Yemen”, said Saeed Ba-zara, General Manager of SBYB.

“Deployment of effective tech-nology is a key element in enabling SBYB to deliver first-class banking services to its privileged clientele. We have been working closely with Path Solutions’ project team to en-sure a smooth transition from our bank’s systems to iMAL, which we believe will address the challenges of real-time availability, scalability, improved time to market and en-hanced modern banking services to our customers”, Bazara confirmed.

SBYB has officially gone live on Saturday the 2nd of October, after

turning off its old systems. The deci-sion was taken after 2 successful weeks of parallel run. The delivery channel implementation consisted of 10 branches, 5 decentralized using iMAL*Safe and 5 others centralized connected directly to the HO.

“Path Solutions is proud to be the trusted strategic IT partner to SBYB, and this is a significant step towards consolidating our success in the highly challenging Yemeni Islamic banking market”, said Alain Abou Khalil, VP Professional Services at Path Solutions. “The project is part of a modernization program for SBYB, and includes the deployment of a complete front-to-back-office solution with full branch automa-tion, as well as trade finance, fixed assets, financial reporting, SWIFT messaging and e-banking modules. The system was delivered using Sun servers”.

SBYB is now benefiting from the most advanced Islamic banking so-lution available on the market. With Path Solutions’ iMAL, the bank has greatly enhanced its ability to pro-cess trade finance transactions and grow its trade business as well as im-prove its local compliance and per-formance management capabilities.

Sunday, Oct 17, 2010 Issue 18 www.nationalyemen.com2 National YemenADVERTISEMENTS

BlockNumber Name Onshore /

Offshore Area

22 Kamaran Offshore Hodeidah - Red Sea

16 Al-Qamar Offshore Al-Mahrah

42 N. Al-’Amra Onshore Hadramout

59 N. Tharmout Onshore Suqutra Archipelago

94 Abdul Kori Offshore Hadramout

80 Wadi Sir Onshore Hadramout

84 Wadi Al-Banin Onshore Hadramout

23 Al-Hadidah Offshore Hadramout

88 Wadi Dubair Onshore Hadramout

79 N. Al-Hadra Onshore Hadramout

The 3rd International Yemen Oil, Gas & Minerals Conference is a major part of the Government’s strategic initiatives to encourage economic stimulus. Major decision makers from key government departments including: the Prime Minister, Deputy Prime Minister & Minister of Planning and International Cooperation, the Minister of Oil and Minerals and the Chairman of the General Investment Authority will deliver “showcase” presentations, reveal new initiatives and international cooperative, announce new projects and deliver the latest incentives in PSAs. The 3rd International Yemen Oil, Gas & Minerals Conference will act as a catalyst for building long-term business partnerships in this lucrative economy.

HE Ameer Al-AidarousMinister of Oil & Minerals

Mr. Ahmed Abdullah Dares, Vice Minister of MOM

Mr. Mohamed Yahya Al-MutawakelDirector General of YemenizationMinistry of Oil & Minerals

HYDROCARBON BLOCK CONCESSION MAP: SATELLITE VIEW

“The oil and gas in-dustry really only took off in post-unification Yemen – so only two decades ago. But ev-eryday we’re making new ground; we’re training more Ye-menis, building ca-pacity, filling our da-tabanks, and adding new colours to the map. Evidently, this is an inherently formative time, as the growth and regulation of the energy and mineral industries will tangibly alter the future trajec-tory of the industry, economy, and na-tion.”

“Yemen, as a whole, will benefit from this conference – boost-ing both investor re-lations and, directly and indirectly, the national economy,... the investor interest and business offers demonstrated in ad-vance of the confer-ence itself, augur well for the event itself, which is part of the government strategy to boost the national economy. The incline of the learning curve has been steep, but it has “ensured steady progression, and helped us refine our future success.”

“Yemenization en-sures that the coun-try develops a highly skilled and experi-enced workforce. We are professionalizing our young nationals to international stan-dards, and nurturing future captains of in-dustry So what I see is ... we are cultivating a resource which in my view is so much more valuable and certainly more sus-tainable than the natural resource they are producing.”

Sunday, Oct 17, 2010 Issue 18 www.nationalyemen.com 3National Yemen

T h e Fa c t s A s T h e y A r ee-mail: info@nationalyemen.comwebsite:www.nationalyemen.comaddress:al-qiada st.Contact

us at :

Tel :

Tel :

Tel :

Fax:

01 251650

01 238070

01 238380

01 251651

National Yemen

Newspaper

Fakhri Hassan Al-ArashiPublisher & Chief Editor

Mohammed Al-AsaadiEditorial Consultant

Mohammed Al-KiriNews Correspondent

Fuad Al-QadhiBusiness Editor

Shukri Hussein Aden - Abyan Correspondent

Amel Al-Ariqi Social Editor

Anatoly KurmanaevInt’l Journalist Intern

Wardah Al-shaweshGraphic Designer

Najeeb AbdulwahedTechnical Director

Abdul-Karim MufadhalSports Editor

Khaled Al-SofiSeniorTranslator

Will CarterManaging Editor

Hind Al-EryaniP.R & Marketing

Mohammed Anees & Salah Othman

Jihan AnwarStaff Journalist

Saleh MaqlemShabwah Correspondent

10/10/10 was a particularly special day for our world, the 350.org, an international orga-nization, invited the whole of humanity to celebrate a Global Work Party to raise peoples’ awareness of the reality of glob-al warming effects.

‘YES!’ Sana’a Alumni, with the collaboration of Amideast English Institute in Sana’a, joined in to rejoice our planet and inspire people to care for its wellbeing.

‘YES!’ - Youth Exchange Studies - is a fully-funded scholarship program supported by the U.S. Department of State Bureau of Education and Cul-tural Affairs which has offered, since 2003, the chance to 2000 secondary school graduates to study in the U.S.A. for a year, while living with host families.

The exchange program broadens the knowledge and the

sense of duty of the students which are invested with the title and duties of being Cultural Ambassadors.

“The program opens doors for students to improve their skills, acquire experience and become more responsible. Thanks to the great improve-ment in their English language, they can apply to study for a bachelors degree aboard with a Canadian Nexen’s or Total’s scholarship schemes” illustrat-ed Amal Al Wazir, the Interna-tional Education Assistant for Amideast Sana’a.

Mrs Al Wazir remarked that the event demonstrated that stu-dents travelling abroad still had a strong bond with their home-land and the trip was not merely an entertaining vacation. In fact it helped these adolescents to grow.

“When they do return they bring with them the commit-ment to help their own commu-nities”, affirmed Al-Wazir.

Maram Maged, vice presi-

dent of YES!, confirmed that she definitely felt the low level of consciousness and sensibility youth in Yemen demonstrated when, for instance, failing to throw the garbage in the appo-site disposals, wasting resourc-es and using water inconsider-ately.

“Before we went to the States we were not very familiar with the concept of volunteering, with the idea of doing any kind of social work without being paid. Thanks to the period spent in the U.S.A. I witnessed how responsible Americans feel to-wards their environment and when I came back to Yemen I was motivated to do the same” explained Osamah Al Shoeabi, president of the YES! Program.

This year, a young crowd of YES! and Amideast students and various volunteers gathered at Al Sabeen Park to symboli-cally and firmly show their care about environmental issues.

Maram continued “We came here to make people aware of the importance of keeping our environment clean … and giv-ing back to the community,” added Nawal Abdallah.

Osamah described how peo-ple at the Sabe’en Park were ini-tially surprised and puzzled when the group of students and volunteers started cleaning up the area, wondering quite what was happening.

“We had to explain to them that it was nothing to be ashamed nor embarrassed about. We are doing this for our country, for our Yemen,” he

added.Eventually some of the on-

lookers warmed to the idea, tak-ing gloves and plastic bags and contributing to the success of the day.

10/10/10 has been celebrated this year with 7347 events in 188 countries. Groups of people and entire communities orga-nized “nature friendly” activi-ties, ranging from a mass bike cycle to tree planting and from cleaning up to the installation of solar panels on houses to be used instead of electricity.

The 350 org. was started by Bill McKibben, one of the first writers on global warming and on the necessity to tackle this is-sue hard and fast.

The number 350 was chosen for a particular reason. Studies have shown that 350 is the max-imum parts per million of car-bon dioxide in the atmosphere which could be considered healthy to live in.

Throughout the earth’s histo-ry the value was around 275, that is, until the nineteenth cen-tury when the amount of the carbon gradually until it reached the current 392. Statistics show the number to be in a continu-ous rise of about 2 parts per mil-lion every year.

The most dangerous side ef-fects of global warming are melting glaciers and ice caps, the increased frequency of drought and floods and the spread of malaria.

These are indeed preoccupy-ing signs, but by working in synergy to decrease our amount

of waste and unclean fuel com-bustion, we have the chance to reverse or at least stem the neg-ative consequences of global warming.

“We are still searching for sponsors. The plan is to plant around 1600 small trees shortly and we hope an even bigger crowd will join us”.

The volunteering activities are an opportunity to break away from monotonous rou-tines or negative habits.

“Instead of wasting time

sleeping, watching TV, chewing qat or smoking sheesha, people get to do something productive” reasoned Mrs Amal.

“Personally, I don’t consider volunteering just as ‘work’. It’s also fun: the joy of gathering, the feedback and the gratitude we receive from people and the smiles lingering on their faces are far more valuable rewards” said Osamah.

Spinners & Losers

Yemen is in dire need of a break, but there are many oppor-tunities heading its way.

Yemen is hosting the third in-ternational Oil, Gas and Mineral conference this week, and it, without wanting to sound too trite, is glistening with optimism.

Many analysts and observers will write about Yemen’s bleak outlook and the myriad of chal-lenges it faces. Finite, near-de-pleted oil reserves will usually feature somewhere within the su-perficial overview, along with a comment that Yemen’s oil will run dry within a decade, along with the oil revenues which the government relies on.

However, such predictions are usually based on calculations us-ing only the currently proven oil reserves – they simply don’t take into account the likely possibility that oil exploration operators will discover new oil reserves.

You see, Yemen is suffering from this skin-deep apocalyptic coverage, this semi-political spin, which is abundant in both

media and pseudo-academic cir-cles. You see, whilst sensational-ist commentators are spinning, it is Yemen that is losing out.

But it would only take one sig-nificant oil discovery to radically change the prospects of the coun-try.

The coming conference is highlighting a further ten hydro-carbon blocks for exploration, and a further 75 oil operators have shown investment interest –so the gloomy backdrop of the future is slowly brightening. They say that the sky is darkest just before dawn.

Our focus, however, should not linger on what might be, in the future. We need to concen-trate on what is happening now, how are those precious oil reve-nues being used.

We should be focusing on how Yemen is diversifying its econo-my, as advocated by Dr. David-son in an exclusive article for this issue of the National Yemen.

We should be equally con-cerned with whether the oil in-dustry is being sufficiently ‘Ye-menized’ so to promise Yemen a future skilled labour market of international standards, as is evaluated by Mr. Al-Mutawakkel in National Yemen’s first publica-tion, “Precious Resources” which is released this week.

We need to break out of this repetitive, and banal, pattern and theme of Yemen coverage. Hope-fully this conference will be some powerful anti-propaganda in favour of Yemen.

Fakhri al-ArashiPublisher & Chief Editor

The Cabinet discussed a re-port on the overcrowding of public school classrooms in the capital Sana’a and its inherent-ly negative effects on the qual-ity of education. The report outlined an average of 82 stu-dents per class.

The report, submitted by Minister of State and Mayor of Sana’a, Dr. Abdul-Rahman Al-Akwa’a, pointed out the causes of the problem and its effects on the educational process as well as proposals of immediate and medium term solutions to address this problem.

An estimated 4,300 class-rooms need to significantly re-duce their numbers, the report outlined.

The report revealed that the rate of growth in the number of students, which has reached, 55,000 students enrolled in pri-mary schools alone in the capi-

tal, and the non-expansion of schools are among the main reasons for this problem. The unprecedented internal migra-tion from various provinces to the capital, and increased ur-banization on the city outskirts, and the lack of land or sites to create or build new schools in some districts has also exacer-bated the problem.

The report highlighted that there are 82 students per class on average.

The Cabinet approved the formation of a committee from Ministers with roles relevant to education, to study the propos-als included in the report and create the necessary solutions, which included a plan to build 814 new classrooms per aca-demic year, a total of 4,070 classrooms over the next five years.

82 school students perclass in Sana’a

scene of an intense firefight by an armed group, purportedly AQ affiliate militants, sources said.

The shooting came from the top of the mountain parallel to the highway, and the attack lead to the death of governor’s brother, four soldiers and wounded seven others. Two ar-moured military personnel car-riers were destroyed after being targeted by two RPG missiles.

The number of deaths and inju-ries sustained by the attacking militants is unknown.

In a statement issued by the security authorities, after the bloody events of Thursday, two of those who set up the armed ambush were arrested. A ‘track and pursue’ operation for the rest of the group is underway in the mountains between the two directorates of Mudyah and Lawder.

A large number of officials and tribesmen, including the governor, had paid their re-spects to his brother, Ali Al-Maysari, and laid him to rest in his village Kabran, one kilome-ter from Mudyah city – the scene of last Thursday and Fri-day events.

The recent incidents in Aby-an have cast a shadow over the province’s preparations for the Gulf 20 events by the end of next November. The incidents also made the security authori-ties’ credibility questionable,

especially after their prior an-nouncement of having elimi-nated the remnants of the orga-nization in Abyan, following the major confrontations in Lawder during last Ramadan.

The tense atmosphere in Mudyah and the adjacent vil-lages coincides with the an-nouncement of the Interior Ministry dispatching additional troops to hunt down the AQ af-filiate groups in the coming hours.

Volunteer? YES!

dence with Anwar Al-Awlaki, a renegade US cleric now thought to be living in Yemen.

Anwar Al-Awlaki has pur-portedly contributed two arti-cles to this edition of Inspire, and is currently reported to be on the US government’s “kill / capture” list.

Al-Awlaki’s listing on such a list has not only caused defen-sive resentment within certain religious circles in Yemen, but also embittered a Yemeni hu-man rights group, the HOOD organization, out of principles.

Many, however, believe Al-Awlaki’s status to be exagger-ated. Inspire has also met with equal criticism.

“There is nothing particular-ly new or uniquely worrying about the magazine’s content,” said Thomas Hegghammer, of the Norwegian Defence Re-search Establishment.

“Without signals intelligence

it is extremely difficult to deter-mine the precise nature of the link between the editors and the AQAP leadership. Judging from the amount of recycled materials in Inspire, I would be surprised if the AQAP connec-tion is very strong,” he added, referring to the first issue.

This second issue, however, features intimate photography of the anti-government troops from the recent operations in Abyan, in the South of Yemen, including the corpses of some Yemeni security forces. Al-though it is unclear whether these photos were taken espe-cially for the webzine or if they are simply circulating around Jihadist websites.

Experts assess that the main target audience, however, is not from within Yemen, but rather from English-speaking coun-tries.

“The selection of political re-

portage and forensic linguistic markers suggest the magazine will appeal more to disaffected youths in the US, more than other countries,” an anonymous analyst said.

He explained, “You don’t find many pickup trucks in the UK. It largely discusses Ameri-

can foreign policy in the Islam-ic world, and US domestic poli-cy. There’s even a screen-shot of an Apple Mac ‘Safari’ inter-net viewer which has an Ameri-can flag where the webpage’s country and server location goes.”

“Inspire” magazine’s front page features photos from recent military operations in Abyan

Continued from ( 1 ) Second Extremist “Inspire” Webzine Causes Controversy

Continued from ( 1 ) Five Killed, Seven Injured in Abyan Ambushes, Clashes

By Jihan Anwar

YES! Volunteers save the environment at Saba’een park

© I

smai

l She

ikh

LOCAL

Sunday, Oct 17, 2010 Issue 18 www.nationalyemen.com4 National Yemen

Q: Media outlets have argued that most of the Al-Qaeda elements are here in Marib. What’s your opinion on this?

A: First of all, Al-Qaeda’s vi-sion, unfortunately, has become different. What we know is that Al-Qaeda is a bunch of fanatic rebels, and in my opinion, they are unreligious people, and un-employed people who might be under foreign leaderships affili-ate to Al-Qaeda.

They pretend to be religious and do things in the name of re-ligion, while in reality they may perform acts of smuggling to fund their illegitimate activities.

They are here, to some ex-tent, and are generally unem-ployed youths, under eighteen years of age; however, we can-not say that they belong to Al-Qaeda. Yet, they were given the name and became semi-Al-Qae-da.Q: Are all the Al-Qaeda elements native to the region, or are they originally from outside the governorate, and relocated?

A: Honestly speaking, I don’t know much about them, except that there are specific people from Marib and they are so young. If civil society organiza-tions cooperated and collabo-rated better with the govern-ment, the problem could be eliminated.

But, sometimes things hap-pen beyond our control; for ex-ample, someone who lost his job, deserted his family or dropped out of school some-times has no choice but to join

these groups.There is Al-Qaeda here, but

we do not think at all that they pose a threat to the region. We are totally convinced that if we join forces with each other and the regime ‘got straight’ and en-forced the law, all of this will disappear, before we talk of the depth of respect to the law and order. Q: Do you think the so-called Al-Qaeda is on ‘the right path’ as some other leaders in the area have said?

A: No. Never. Neither me, nor anyone else believe that they are on the right path; but the problem lies in their growth. Honestly speaking, the state has exerted great efforts to fight them, but unfortunately, the public efforts did not get togeth-er with the official efforts.Q: Osama Bin Laden is of Yemeni origins and he fights against the west. Are you proud of him?

A: Well, western states must be proud of him because it was their intelligence agencies who manufactured him and dis-patched him, along with others, to Afghanistan to fight the Sovi-ets.

The leadership of Al-Qaeda in Afghanistan or the so-called Bin Laden and Ayman Al-Za-wahiri, are remnants of what used to be called the Arab Muja-hedeen in Afghanistan who fought against the Soviet Union. This is the nature of life - you win some and you lose some.

They were formed by the west and the Arab regimes as-

sisted them because they were Mujahedeen doing Allah’s work. Eventually they turned against them.Q: What relations do you have with other community figures with the so-called Al-Qaeda here in Marib?

A: We have no relations with them because they avoid society and people. Neither me, nor anyone else mix with them.Q: Religious institutes exist in Marib. What is your opinion about them?

A: The religious institutes exist to bridge the gap in the of-ficial and basic education. These institutes are limited. There are deficiencies. Although tradi-tionally I am a farmer, I consid-er that all jobs must integrate. If there is no integration, there will be of course be flaws and gaps in what happens.

Education here suffers from a deficiency and because the whole country is overtly reli-gious, however the official gov-ernment curricula are somewhat lacking in the teaching of reli-gion.

This created a quagmire for those who try to compensate for this deficiency by establishing religious institutes, and many people join them voluntarily dissatisfied with secular curric-ulum. Politically, they have had little effect so far. However, they might prove to be trouble-some with the widening differ-ence in their religious doctrines and practices.Q: Do you think that this will lead to a religious conflict in

the future?A: The difference is doctrinal

and is related to the self-evalua-tion of the individual or social class.Q: Which is more prominent in the region, the official / state rule of law or the tribal one?

A: Of course the official rule, but again certain aspects are lacking. Much of the adminis-trative work is not performed as required.Q: Can the government control the region?

A: I often live by the saying that, “justice is the foundation of rule” and if there is true jus-tice then everything would be ... manageable.

By justice I mean legitimate legislation, respecting law and order, justice in human rights, and transparent evaluation of administrative work. Yemen suffers from administrative flaws; other states probably suf-fer from the same thing to lesser extents – it is a principal prob-lem in governance.

My point of view is that the administrative flaws which oc-cur here are the main causes for differences – differences about legal rights or demands imposed by the need.

Law, and its enforcement, regulates society and organizes the population. When the re-gime is imbalanced, differences are multiplied and exacerbated.Q: So what do you feel is best for the region, tribal rule or state sovereignty?

A: Where there are two over-lapping, competing power sys-

tems, the inferior one will un-dermine the superior, and the ruling one often becomes apa-thetic.

Tribal tradition rule is limit-ed, but people often resolve dis-putes in tribal courts rather than going to civil courts, which are expensive and often viewed as inefficient, alien, and some-times even corrupt.

The simple thing is tribal rule, in my opinion, runs in par-allel with the official rule, with state sovereignty. However, both, have become idle now, and weakened by the other. The tribal statutes do not perform functions required from them because the tribal statute has not developed with the develop-ment of crime, punishment and other legal concerns, nor did the judiciary develop due to the ad-ministrative defect that I have already mentioned.Q: Do you think that there are particular agencies that assist in the destabilization of the region and resilience of illiteracy?

A: The whole matter is attrib-uted to the administrative flaws which I’ve talked about. The core of the matter is that there is

a muddled sense of distribution in terms of basic services, such as education, economic and civ-il projects.

Even if this distribution ex-ists, it is conducted without pri-or plans and without social jus-tice. For example, Marib province is done injustice in re-gard to education. If we dig into the reasons, we will find that the establishment of schools reached the province late.

State education and health projects only came into the province in the last decade, and built schools and expanded health projects; however, the human development is still very limited and there are central and local administrative shortcom-ings which plague the situation.

The people of Marib gover-norate have subsequently been marginalized. It is not in the in-terest of anyone to have Marib as a backward place. So I see it as a central issue. The center, the center of governance, does not feed the local branches with a fair plan based on studies of need and, indeed, on justice.

Al-Qaeda in Marib

Mohammed Al-Qiyari

INTERVIEW

Al-Qaeda has been known to use the desert and mountainous areas for its growth and spread, exploiting religion, illiteracy among people and unemployment among the youth in these under-developed areas. On this subject, the National Yemen had an interview with Sheikh Abdullah Mohammed Al-Shareef, Member of the Local Council in Marib and one of the Sheikhs of the Ashraf of Wadi Abeedah.

Adding Colour to the Map

“We should be forthright and honest when we talk about the challenges that the oil and gas industry has to overcome – it’s the only way we’ll make proper progress,” said the Minister.

The National Yemen met with Mr. Al-Aidarous, the Min-ister of Oil & Minerals after he announced the sale of three hy-drocarbon blocks earlier last week. He seemed upbeat about the prospects of the conference which will be taking place this week on the 17th and 18th Oc-tober.

“We expect considerable progress from the conference, including the tenders of many hydrocarbon blocks for explora-tion and mineral investment op-portunities, which will happen against the backdrop of the con-ference,” he said.

The conference event orga-nizers revealed to the National Yemen that a number of private meetings between investors and government officials had been arranged.

Despite the promising pre-liminaries to the 3rd Interna-tional Oil, Gas & Minerals con-ference, the minister was keen to use his brief time with us more effectively than simply praising the conference.

“My immediate priority is to build up our picture of Yemen’s natural resource reserves – it’s only partial at the moment, but with more investment, newer technologies, we can add more

colours to the map,” he said brightly.

It is apparent as to why this is a priority – Yemen’s total oil and gas reserves is a number of great political salience, and not just a sum to gloss over in an in-vestor’s information pack. Much of the doomsday report-age about Yemen usually in-cludes a section on the depleting oil reserves the country is using to fund itself.

However, much of these think-tank reports, which ex-ploit the fact that Yemen is due to exhaust its proven oil sup-plies in the coming decade, are short-sighted. Only a fraction of Yemen’s geographic underbelly have been properly explored, and the country has not yet pro-moted its vast offshore hydro-carbon blocks.

The need to ‘add colours to the map’ is highlighted by the fact that many colours on the exploration map are fading. Many prior exploratory opera-tions did not penetrate many of the geological layers of the sed-entary basins in which oil is found, and many more used technology which is now quite out-dated.

Even one big discovery, which many industry experts believe more than plausible, would dramatically change the sobering sense of realism which observers usually regard Ye-men’s future with.

The country, however, lacks

part of the infrastructure and the associated capital funds to con-duct comprehensive oil explora-tion, which is why the govern-ment is reliant on investment.

Mr. Al-Aidarous and the rest of the Ministry of Oil & Miner-als are endeavouring to over-come many other issues which are relevant beyond the remit of the oil and gas industry.

Mr. Al-Mutawakkel, the gen-eral director of ‘Yemenization’ for instance has institutional-ized the concept that the boom-ing energy industry here can, and must, be utilized as a vehi-cle to train much-needed cadres of technically skilled Yemenis to international standards and to nurture Yemeni professionals with multi-national manage-ment experience, to later be-come captains of industry in Ye-men.

It is, nonetheless, an uphill battle. “Yemen is relatively new to oil,” the Minister said. “The industry really only took off in post-unification Yemen, so that’s only the last two decades or so.” The gas industry took off even later.

It is no surprise that the in-dustry is suffering some teeth-ing problems. At the same time, however, it is spear-heading some creative solutions within and outside the industry.

The ministry decided that as a part of new agreements with oil operators, that producing companies utilize by-product

gases. Usually such gases are simply ‘flared’ (burnt), and form the distinctive flames people as-sociate with oil installations. The ministry, however, decided that they should be used for lo-cal power generation, to help al-leviate strains on Yemen’s elec-tricity net.

Mr. Al-Aidarous spoke of deeper problems which lay in the current set up. These frus-trating problems, he said, “means that I, and my succes-sors, would simply be walking in circles if the nature of the oil industry was not markedly

transformed – something I have personally become determined to change.”

The minister went on to out-line his tripartite solution.

The first step is to have stra-tegic foresight for the industry, that is, to develop a long term development strategy instead of simply reacting to the evolving situation.

The second was to modernize and optimize the legal frame-work which the industry oper-ates in – something he feels is cumbersome in the modern cli-mate, and simply not as mutu-

ally beneficial as it could be, for both investor and Yemen.

Lastly, he advocated a full stream-lining and restructuring of the ministry.

The interview ended there, with the minister whisked away to sign documents and shake hands with delegations of the oil companies who had secured ex-ploration rights for the three hy-drocarbon blocks, whilst I was left staring at a hydrocarbon block map of Yemen which had just been shaded with new com-pany logos. The new colours were an auspicious sign.

Will Carter

Mr. Ameer Al-Aidarous - Minister of Oil & Minerals

Sunday, Oct 17, 2010 Issue 18 www.nationalyemen.com 5National Yemen COMMENT

Yemen largely escaped the effects of the recent global fi-nancial crisis, but this was pri-marily due to the insulated na-ture of its financial system and its relative lack of integration into the international system, rather than due to any sound economic planning. Moreover, even though its annual GDP growth is still estimated to be around 3 to 4 percent and its economy appears to have bucked the regional trend, with nearby Gulf Cooperation Coun-cil states having either fallen into recession or facing years of stagnation, the reality under the surface is a lot less appealing.

Yemen remains a very low income country that is highly dependent on oil exports, the revenues from which account for more than a quarter of the country’s GDP and now make up nearly three quarters of the government’s revenue. In 2009 the vulnerability of such hydro-carbon dependencies was un-derscored when oil revenues declined by more than a half – to less than $2 billion per an-num - due to international price

fluctuations. Fully recognised in Yemen’s Strategic Vision 2025 – a long term development plan first outlined in 2006 – the national economy must urgently diversify into other sectors if it is to enjoy sustainable growth in a post-oil future and if the gov-ernment is to enjoy any future autonomy from the oil industry.

In many ways, the urgency

and scale of the problem is now much greater than envisaged in 2006, with some analysts now predicting that Yemen could be-come a net oil importer as soon

as 2015, and with oil production and exploration unlikely to be commercially viable as soon as 2021. Pressure will also in-crease on the national economy as a result of the country’s mushrooming youthful demo-graphic. With Yemen’s popula-tion forecast to grow from its current 30 million to over 50 million by 2025, the unemploy-ment rate – already standing at a precarious 20 percent according to the World Bank – will con-tinue to rise, along with all of the associated economic and political instabilities of having a restless national youth.

As it stands, the Strategic Vi-sion 2025 is not yet working, as non-oil growth has actually fall-en - from about 5 percent in 2008 to around 4 percent in 2010. Some of the sectors which have been earmarked for development according to the Vision, such as agriculture and fishing, while certainly impor-tant for food security, are un-likely to promote meaningful diversification of the economy as their growth potential and employment prospects will

probably remain weak. More dangerously, some of the other sectors emphasised by the Vi-sion, most notably free zones and tourism, may eventually ex-pose Yemen to the same pathol-ogies experienced by some of its closest neighbours.

With increasing free zone ac-tivity, most of which is aimed at attracting international invest-ment by relaxing legislation re-quiring local partners for for-eign businesses, there is a fear that Yemen, like Dubai before it, will fall into the trap of pro-moting the globalisation of its economy ahead of any real commitment to regional inte-gration. In Dubai’s case the re-gional breakdown of companies operating in its free zones quickly became a non-Middle Eastern majority, which soon led to a feeling among many Arab investors that such free zones were merely ‘foreign en-claves’ and therefore not really tailored to their needs. Without a safety net of regional integra-tion Yemen’s free zones would likely suffer in the event of an-other global downswing. Dubai is now grappling with a spiral-ling vacancy rate for commer-cial space in these zones, as for-

eign companies have closed down their outposts due to prob-lems at home.

Tourism is equally problem-atic, as both Dubai and Oman have experienced in the wake of the global financial crisis. Hotel occupancy rates have drastical-ly declined, especially in Dubai, and resorts have had to slash prices in order to remain com-petitive, with tourism’s contri-bution to GDP having falling accordingly. Yemen’s tourist industry is likely to be a little more resilient, given the greater emphasis on cultural and his-torical tourism as opposed to the more basic sun-seeking and shopping tourism in its neigh-bours, but it nonetheless re-mains especially vulnerable to increased political instability. Any further deterioration in law and order would undoubtedly reduce tourist numbers, which currently stand at a modest quarter of a million per annum.

Perhaps the best route for Ye-men, or at least the best diversi-fication strategy to adopt from its neighbours, is to build up heavy export-oriented indus-tries. These could concentrate on the production of metals, plastics, fertilizers, and petro-

chemicals, all of which require abundant energy to manufacture and therefore best capitalize on Yemen’s current competitive advantage as an oil producer. They would also provide much better employment opportuni-ties for young Yemenis entering the manufacturing sector which, at present, employs less than 150,000 and still accounts for less than 10 percent of the coun-try’s GDP.

Yemen must also prioritize its role as an entrepôt for re-gional and international trade. Although discussed at some length in the Vision’s support-ing documents, the necessary infrastructure for such a role does yet seem to assume the pri-macy it deserves. Yemen’s key asset, along with oil, must sure-ly be its geographic location, enjoying both Red Sea and In-dian Ocean access. If its ports can be brought back up to inter-national standards, as they once were, then they will be well placed – much better than those in the Gulf Cooperation Council states – to prosper from the fast growing trade triangle between the Middle East, Africa, and the Far East.

Yemen Must Diversify – But How?

Bury the Graveyard

If you want to figure out a way forward for Afghanistan, fake history is not the place to start.

It’s the mother of all clichés. Almost no one can resist it. It’s wielded by everyone from thoughtful ex-generals to vitri-olic bloggers. It crops up every-where from Russia’s English-language TV channel to scruffy Pakistani newspapers to Ameri-ca’s stately National Public Ra-dio. The Huffington Post can’t seem to live without it, and one recent book even chose it as a title. Afghanistan, we’re told, is “the graveyard of empires.”

The Victorian British and the Soviet Union, the story goes, were part of a long historical continuum of arrogant conquer-ors that met their match in the country’s xenophobic, fanatical, trigger-happy tribesmen. Given a record like that, it’s obvious that the effort by the United States and its NATO allies to stabilize the shaky government in Kabul is doomed to fail.

Look, failure is always a pos-sible outcome, especially judg-ing by the way things have been going lately. But if the United States and its allies end up messing up their part of the equation, blame it on their bad policy decisions. Don’t blame it on a supersimplified version of Afghanistan’s history -- espe-cially if you prefer to overlook the details.

As Thomas Barfield pointed out to me the other day, for most of its history Afghanistan has actually been the cradle of em-pires, not their grave. Barfield, an anthropologist at Boston University, has been studying Afghanistan since the early 1970s, and he has just published a book -- Afghanistan: A Cul-tural and Political History -- that takes issue with the hoary ste-reotypes that continue to inform our understanding of the place.

One of those myths, for ex-ample, is that Afghanistan is in-

herently unconquerable thanks to the fierceness of its inhabit-ants and the formidable nature of its terrain. But this isn’t at all borne out by the history. “Until 1840 Afghanistan was better known as a ‘highway of con-quest’ rather than the ‘graveyard of empires,’” Barfield points out. “For 2,500 years it was al-ways part of somebody’s em-pire, beginning with the Persian Empire in the fifth century B.C.”

After the Persians it was Al-exander the Great’s turn. Some contend that Alexander met his match in the Afghans, since it was an Afghan archer who wounded him in the heel, usher-ing in a series of misfortunes that would end with the great conqueror’s death. Ask anyone who believes this is why Greek coins keep cropping up in Af-ghan soil today -- in fact, Alex-ander’s successors managed to keep the place under their con-trol for another 200 years. Not too shabby, really. And there were plenty of empires that came after, thanks to Afghani-stan’s centrality to world trade in the era before European ocean fleets put an end to the Silk Road’s transportation mo-nopoly.

What about the popular ac-counts that insist, awe-struck, that even Genghis Khan was humbled by the Afghans? Pop-pycock, says Barfield. Genghis had “no trouble at all overrun-ning the place,” and his descen-dants would build wide-ranging kingdoms using Afghanistan as a base. Timur (know to most of us as Tamerlane) ultimately shifted the capital of his empire from provincial Samarkand to cosmopolitan Herat, evidence of the role command over Af-ghanistan played in his calcula-tions. Babur, who is buried in Kabul, used Afghanistan to launch his conquest of a sizable chunk of India and establish centuries of Muslim rule. Af-ghans seemed pretty happy to

go along. In fact, Afghan self-rule is a

relatively recent invention in the full sweep of the country’s history, dating to the middle of the 18th century -- and it took another century for Afghanistan to earn its reputation as an em-pire-beater. That’s when the Af-ghans trounced a British inva-sion force, destroying all but one of 16,000 troops sent to Ka-bul to teach the Afghan rulers a lesson.

But context is everything. Everyone tends to forget what happened after the rout of the British: In 1842 they invaded again, defeating every Afghan army sent out against them. True, they didn’t necessarily achieve their aim of preventing Tzarist Russia from encroach-ing on Central Asia; that had to

wait for the Second Anglo-Af-ghan War (1878-1880), when they succeeded in occupying much of the country and forcing its rulers to accept a treaty giv-ing the British a veto over future Afghan foreign policy. Then there’s the fact that First Anglo-Afghan War preceded the end of the British Empire by more than a century. London, it should be noted, never intended to make Afghanistan part of its empire. Britain’s foreign-policy aim, which it ultimately achieved, was to ensure that Afghanistan remained a buffer state outside the influence of imperial com-petitors, such as the Russians.

And what about the Soviets? To be sure, the quagmire they faced in Afghanistan -- with all of its economic, political and psychological consequences -- was a major factor in the col-lapse of their political system. But even the most skeptical his-torians concede that, around 1984 or so, the Soviets were ac-tually getting the better of the mujahideen. It was the U.S. de-cision to send shoulder-launched anti-aircraft missiles to the Afghan resistance, which robbed the Russian helicopter gunships of their superiority, that allowed the guerrillas to stage a comeback.

The bottom line, though, is that the Soviet intervention in Afghanistan represented a radi-cal break with the country’s past, not an extension of it. The Soviets and their Afghan com-munist allies wiped out entire communities and devastated wide swaths of the countryside, sending millions of refugees fleeing across the borders. They systematically targeted tradi-tional institutions and elites, leaving behind a power vacuum that was eagerly seized upon -- but never quite filled -- by a new brand of revolutionary Is-lamists, promoted by Pakistan and abetted from afar by eager cold warriors in Washington.

These communist attempts to

impose utopian designs on a deeply traditional society trig-gered what Barfield describes as Afghanistan’s “first national in-surgency” -- one that transcend-ed old dividing lines of tribe and ethnicity. As Barfield points out, the war against the Soviets was sharply different from previous rebellions in Afghanistan’s his-tory as a state, which were rela-tively fleeting and almost al-ways local affairs, usually revolving around dynastic pow-er struggles. “From 1929 to 1978,” he says, “the country was completely at peace.” In some respects, one might haz-ard, the current insurgency -- as an almost exclusively Pashtun affair -- harks back to an earlier, more fragmented pattern of Af-ghanistan’s history. But that, by itself, doesn’t make it an insur-mountable problem. Just the op-posite, in fact.

Unfortunately, popular views of the place today are shaped by the past 30 years of seemingly unceasing warfare rather than substantive knowledge of the country’s history. Anti-war ac-tivists routinely blame the post-2001 Western military presence in the country for the destruc-tion of national infrastructure and the widespread cultivation of opium poppies -- both of which actually date back to the Soviet invasion and the civil war that followed. Others play up the notion of Afghanistan as inherently immune to civiliza-tion: “We are not going to ever defeat the insurgency,” said Ca-nadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper on CNN in 2009. “Af-ghanistan has probably had - my

reading of Afghanistan history - it’s probably had an insurgency forever, of some kind.”

Barfield contends that the Af-ghans have long understood the tendency of foreigners to view them as untamable savages and have been happy to leverage the stereotype to their advantage. “The Afghans use hyperbole of history to exaggerate [their] strengths in order to deter in-vaders,” he says. “In this case, a poor knowledge of their history goes a long way to convincing others to stay away, but it can be a dangerous illusion.” Back in 2001, Barfield says, Mullah Omar and Osama bin Laden re-cycled the myth to themselves -- only to watch Taliban rule, and al Qaeda’s safe haven, col-lapse under U.S. bombing.

I made my first visit to Af-ghanistan that same year. The Afghans I met were neither xe-nophobic nor bellicose. What they wanted most of all was peace, and they didn’t trust their own leaders to bring it. “We’re sick of fighting. We hate war. We want to have a free elec-tion,” one grizzled -- and illiter-ate -- warrior told me. “And let’s have the United Nations come in and make sure it’s fair, so the warlords don’t interfere.” I heard similar views from many Afghans. Nowadays that vision sounds a bit like a dream, and it’s hard to say precisely how many of his compatriots shared it for real, but I can’t help recall-ing the sentiment. One thing is for sure: If we really want Af-ghans to attain the future they deserve, clinging to a fake ver-sion of their history won’t help.

BY CHRISTIAN CARYL (Foreign Policy)

“The Afghans use hy-perbole of history to exaggerate [their] strengths in order to deter invaders,” he says. “In this case, a poor knowledge of their history goes a long way to con-vincing others to stay away, but it can be a dangerous illusion.”

...the best diversifica-tion strategy to adopt from its neighbours, is to build up heavy export-oriented in-dustries.

‘‘

‘‘

By Dr. Christopher Davidson (Exclusive for NY)Reader in Middle East Politics at Durham University and author of ‘Persian Gulf and Pacific Asia: From Indifference to Interdependence’

Sunday, Oct 17, 2010 Issue 18 www.nationalyemen.com6 National YemenINTL REPORT

The oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico has caused some indus-try experts to reflect on how their country would cope in a similar emergency.

While Iran has considerable experience of dealing with on-shore oilfield fires caused start-ed during past conflicts, its off-shore industry is weaker, suggesting it would struggle to deal with a major disaster at sea.

As the extent of the environ-mental damage in the Gulf of Mexico became evident, Presi-dent Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and several senior Iranian oil in-

dustry officials offered assis-tance with capping the leak.

There was little chance the offer would be taken seriously in Washington, given the frosty relationship with Tehran, not to mention the tenor of some of the offers of help.

“It is a matter of shame and disgrace that the US, United Kingdom and others who regard themselves as centres of tech-nology and as superpowers of industry and international eco-nomics should be unable to con-tain the flow of oil,” said Briga-dier-General Rostam Ghasemi,

head of the Khatamolanbia Construction Headquarters, a Revolutionary Guards unit in-volved in several construction

and energy projects.Ghasemi’s unit was listed by

name in the latest round of Unit-ed Nations Security Council sanctions approved in June.

However, some domestic Ira-nian media outlets took a differ-ent line, advising officials to leave the Americans alone and focus on problems closer to home.

After all, the comments from officials on the US situation came after emergency teams struggled to extinguish a fire at an onshore oil well in Naftshahr.

The blaze, which began late May, took five weeks to extin-guish, and affected a well that had been producing at a rate 60

per cent higher than the Gulf of Mexico shaft.

The American spill and the Naftshahr fire led to a flurry of meetings in Iran which dis-cussed the oil industry’s capaci-ty to manage such situations.

The most high-powered event, in late July, brought to-gether the upper management of the National Iranian Oil Com-pany, NIOC, and resulted in two main recommendations – train-ing up experts to deal with off-shore oil spills, and acquiring the right equipment for such an eventuality, either by manufac-turing it in Iran or sourcing it abroad through unofficial chan-nels.

Mahmoud Zirakchian, man-aging director of the national Offshore Oil Company, pointed out that the offshore drilling sector was lacking in both mod-ern methodologies and technol-ogy.

Zirakchian should know – his employees include not only vet-eran drilling teams, but people who learned how to put out ma-jor fires the hard way, during the Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s.

Attacks on offshore rigs in the Persian Gulf caused blazes that took an average of six months to get under control, while repair work went on for many years afterwards, and in some cases has yet to get under way.

This experience meant Irani-an oilmen were well placed to help put out wellhead fires in Kuwait following the 1990 Iraqi invasion of that country.

But as an industry expert points out, Iranians may be ex-perts at fighting fires, but the methods they use are obsolete.

“We use the traditional meth-od known as direct attack – we initially extinguish the fire at the

collar of the well, and then fill the collar with cement and mud and, as they say, choke it off,” he said. “With the more modern methods, no one attacks the well directly. Instead, they drill a horizontal shaft that connects with the well below the collar, and inject cement and mud from there.”

While the Gulf of Mexico well was located at a depth of 1,500 metres, another Iranian oil expert points out that his country’s capacity to contain offshore oil leaks is “limited to depths of 90 metres”.

Part of the problem is that Iran has to import much of its oil industry equipment, includ-ing items used in containing leaks. The latest round of US and UN sanctions in June has made such technology purchas-es more difficult than ever.

“Much of Iran’s offshore drilling operation is reliant on foreign companies. We don’t even have enough drilling ma-chinery and offshore plat-forms,” according to an expert from the drilling sector, “The most experienced Iranian weld-ers haven’t practiced working at

depths of more than 40 metres.”Apart from obsolete technol-

ogy, Iran’s oil industry suffers a constant loss of expertise as skilled staff go elsewhere.

According to Mahmoud Mo-haddes, former chief executive of the National Iranian Explora-tion Company, “We are con-stantly training up new people, but when our foreign and re-gional rivals pay them a several times what we do, we have no way of retaining them.”

Apart from pay consider-ations, the Iranian drilling in-dustry’s safety record is poor by international standards. A report from the NIDC last year showed that over the previous eight years, the industry suffered 20 deaths per 100 million work hours, compared with an inter-national average of three deaths.

A mid-ranking manager in the NIDC concludes, “If this country wants to help anyone else, we should first undertake efforts to solve our own domes-tic problems. The international oil giants are more than capable of resolving their own prob-lems.”

Iranian Oilmen Reflect on Mexico Gulf Spill

As Tehran officials offer to help clear spill, oil industry officials are worried about Iran’s ability to deal with similar offshore accidents closer to home.

By Kaveh Sarafraz - Iran (IWPR)

Indonesia continues to enjoy robust growth after successfully averting the global recession these past two years. But wheth-er South East Asia’s lone repre-sentative in the G20 can be-come a true regional economic powerhouse hinges on its abili-ty to address some fundamental problems that have hindered it from realizing its full potential.

An important sign that the economy is doing well is its ex-ports earning, growing 40 per cent in the first eight months of this year. This expansion is broad-based, coming not only from the mining and energy sectors, but also agriculture and manufacturing.

Asia is becoming its main market today: China for coal and India for crude palm oil. In-donesia is also shipping more rubber products, electronics, footwear and car parts.

The economy is expected to grow 6 per cent this year, up from 4.5 per cent last year, as Indonesia joins other Asian countries in leading the global recovery. A 7-per-cent GDP growth is within sight next year, even when the global recovery has slowed a little.

The influx in foreign direct investment ensures that this growth is more sustainable. In-donesia is attracting investors who are looking not so much for large margins as for eco-nomic and political stability when the world is clouded with uncertainty.

Companies from Taiwan, South Korea, Japan and the United States are considering relocation to Indonesia from China and Vietnam, where wages have been rising fast, or from other South-east Asian neighbors to tap the huge Indo-

nesian market of 240 million people.

Like the rest of Asia, Indo-nesia is getting the attention of international fund managers looking for extra percentage points from its stock and bond markets.

So much money is flowing in that the rupiah has grown from strength to strength against the US dollar. Yet, con-cerns that the strong rupiah would undermine Indonesia’s export competitiveness have proven to be groundless, going by export figures released in August.

The macro-economic indi-cators may paint a rosy picture, but Indonesia has yet to emerge as one of Asia’s economic powerhouses, in reflection its membership of the elite Group of 20 wealthiest nations in the world.

Indonesia has been mostly at the receiving end of the spill-over effects from the recovery occurring in China. In the glob-al supply chain, Indonesia’s role is still confined to provid-ing energy resources, raw mate-rials and semi-processed goods.

While it is diversifying, much of the growth has been fueled largely by the same fac-tors: A strong domestic market and exports of natural resource-based products.

Investors are turning to Indo-nesia because other countries seem less attractive, not be-cause of any fundamental changes in the country. Policy-wise, not much has changed. Some investors, particularly fund managers, would just as quickly take their money out when conditions in other coun-tries improve.

The economy continues to be

beset by the same problems that President Susilo Bambang Yud-hoyono has faced since he took charge in 2004: Poor economic infrastructure, rampant corrup-tion and a legal framework that does not quite provide investors with better certainty.

Mr Yudhoyono last year won a new five-year mandate to have a second chance at tack-ling these problems and turn Indonesia into a regional eco-nomic power.

We will know in the next few years whether he can pull it off.

He needs to do this not only to create spillover economic ef-fects in the rest of Asia, but more importantly to create jobs at home, raise income and lift millions of Indonesians out of poverty

Will Indonesia become a regional economic powerhouse?

Investors are turn-ing to Indonesia be-cause other countries seem less attractive, not because of any fundamental chang-es in the country. Pol-icy-wise, not much has changed. Some investors, particu-larly fund managers, would just as quickly take their money out when conditions in other countries im-prove.

“We use the tradi-tional method known as direct attack – we initially extinguish the fire at the collar of the well, and then fill the collar with cement and mud and, as they say, choke it off,” he said. “With the more modern methods, no one attacks the well directly. Instead, they drill a horizontal shaft that connects with the well below the collar, and inject ce-ment and mud from there.”

‘‘

‘‘

By Endy Bayuni (Jakarta Post)

Sunday, Oct 17, 2010 Issue 18 www.nationalyemen.com 7National Yemen CONGRATULATIONS

Sunday, Oct 17, 2010 Issue 18 www.nationalyemen.com8 National YemenADVERTISEMENTS

Sunday, Oct 17, 2010 Issue 18 www.nationalyemen.com 9National Yemen REPORTAGE

Sunday, Oct 17, 2010 Issue 18 www.nationalyemen.com10 National YemenADVERTISEMENTS

Sunday, Oct 17, 2010 Issue 18 www.nationalyemen.com 11National Yemen BUSINESS

A year ago Yemen joined the ranks of the world’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporters, launching a two-train liquefac-tion terminal at the port of Bal-haf. The 6.7mn tonne per an-num (tpa) plant is significantly diversifying the country’s in-dustrial base, commercialising a valuable natural resource that until then had been flared, re-injected into oil fields, or simply left in the ground.

Moreover, given the strong economies of scale accompany-ing liquefaction projects, the Yemen LNG (YLNG) terminal could easily be expanded in the future should the economic and geological conditions prove fa-vourable. Most of the expansion debate until now has concen-trated on the supply factors, cit-ing Yemen’s limited known re-serves base.

Proven gas reserves in Ye-men have been put at 490bcm at end-2009 by the BP Statistical Review. At end-2010, remain-ing commercial reserves at the Marib-Jawf contract area, which provides all of YLNG’s gas feedstock, are expected to be 283bn cubic metres (bcm) or 10trn cubic feet. Yet assuming full capacity utilisation from 2012, in its present size YLNG will only need 223bcm of re-serves over its lifespan to 2033. Greater exploration activity and/or commercialisation of known associated gas deposits at oil fields clearly provide scope for additional trains at the terminal.

The gas supply projections for YLNG need to be counter-balanced with the demand out-look. After all, secure and lucra-tive markets for Yemeni LNG will encourage gas exploration, providing the reserve backbone for additional trains. In its com-prehensive 2007 report on Ye-men’s gas industry, the World Bank estimated the total gross revenues from the two-train YLNG terminal at between $27.5bn and $39bn, based on different price assumptions in the project’s two original mar-kets – the US and South Korea. This $11.5bn difference in rev-enues will largely determine whether the new trains are built or not.

Since the YLNG consortium decided to go ahead with the project in 2005, the outlook for global LNG demand has dark-ened. The biggest game-chang-er has been the rise of uncon-ventional gas production, which has altered the competitive landscape in the two main LNG markets – the Atlantic Basin comprising the Americas and Europe and, to a lesser extent, the Pacific Basin serving Asia.

Shale Shock

In the Atlantic Basin, the well-documented shale boom in the US had propelled the coun-try to the status of the world’s largest gas producer in 2009. As a result, strong growth in US gas imports, which was expect-ed to absorb cargoes from new LNG producers such as Yemen, Peru and Russia has not materi-alised. In 2009, the US imported just 12bcm of LNG, well below the 2007 high of 22bcm.

Although volumes are ex-pected to recover by 2012-2013 on the back of stronger econom-ic growth and clean energy poli-cies, the stellar upward gas im-port trajectory envisioned by

analysts as late as last year has been severely flattened. The largest US LNG import termi-nal, the Sabine Pass plant in Louisiana, has recently received approval to export gas, turning upside down all assumptions re-garding North American LNG market. Even if the economics of shale drilling prove overopti-mistic, gas pipeline projects from Alaska and Canada’s Northwest Territories remain on the table to provide a boost of supplies to the main North American consuming regions.

At end-2009, total regasifica-tion capacity in the US stood at 117bcm, representing average utilisation rate of just 10%. The world’s largest gas consuming country has clearly become a buyer’s market. LNG prices have consequently fallen. The nine cargoes of Yemeni LNG sold so far this year in the US by project partners Total and GDF Suez fetched an average of just $4.50 per million British Ther-mal Units (mn BTU), according to Bloomberg data.

In comparison, Japan, which relies almost exclusively on LNG for its gas needs, has paid an average of US$11.2/mn BTU in 2010. Moreover, the situation is unlikely to improve in the foreseeable future. Most fore-casting agencies are predicting that the Henry Hub benchmark price, which determines US LNG prices, will fluctuate in the weak US$4-5/mn BTU range in the coming years.

Club Med

LNG demand in Europe, the second branch of the Atlantic Basin market, is also uncertain. Gas demand among LNG con-sumers such as Spain, Greece, Portugal and the UK remains weak owing to ongoing eco-nomic difficulties, while in the stronger northern European markets LNG faces tough com-petition from Russian and Nor-wegian piped gas. Middle East-ern LNG currently sells in Western Europe for $6-8/mn BTU.

Early-stage shale drilling in Central Europe and massive new pipelines that Russia is planning to build from its Arctic fields should be a concern for YLNG. The outlook for Yemeni gas on the European market as a whole, however, is not as gloomy as might at first appear.

According to Russian invest-ment bank Troika Dialogue, 70% of the new European re-gasification capacity currently under construction is located in the Mediterranean or the UK, markets that will be relatively little effected by an influx of fresh gas supplies to Europe from the Barents Sea or the Ya-mal peninsula. YLNG’s prox-imity to the Suez Canal provides it with a slim competitive ad-vantage over LNG export giant Qatar.

Asia Powers On

While the Atlantic LNG mar-ket has been cloaked in uncer-tainty, Asia remains a bright spot of global LNG demand. London-based research house Business Monitor International forecasts LNG consumption in the four main regional import-ers Japan, South Korea, China and India will rise from 140bcm in 2009 to 187bcm in 2014 and 260bcm by 2020, an 85% in-crease. Even after subtracting Asian LNG exporters such as Australia and Indonesia, net LNG demand across Asia-Pacif-ic will rise from 76bcm in 2007 to 82bcm in 2014.

The presence of Korea Gas (Kogas) in the YLNG consor-tium provides an opportunity to channel cargoes from any new Yemeni trains into a rapidly ex-panding market. Under a long-term gas sales and purchase agreement (GSPA) Kogas al-ready buys 2mn tpa of YLNG’s gas. In mid-2010 this gas was

sold at a premium gross price of around $11.45/mn BTU, ac-cording to Bloomberg.

In vying for supply deals for the new South Korean regasifi-cation terminals YLNG would face strong competition from Australia, where several mega projects fed by subsea gas and coal bed methane (CBM) are due onstream by the middle of the decade. Good business rela-tions between Yemen and South Korean conglomerates should ease the negotiation process and may provide YLNG with a competitive edge.

Natural Markets

A major potential new mar-ket for YLNG is India, which given its geographical proximi-ty can be considered a natural destination for Yemeni gas. Ow-ing to its slower decentralised decision-making process India has lagged behind another ris-ing LNG consumer, China, in building regasification capacity. India’s economic outperfor-mance, however, is creating an ever-greater pressure on the government to provide new sources of gas and LNG import terminals are expected to mush-room from mid-2010s onwards.

Finally, an emergence of the Middle East as a large net gas consumer provides an underrat-ed expansion opportunity for YLNG. Despite the region’s massive hydrocarbon reserves, the runaway gas consumption in the Gulf states is opening a sup-ply gap. Kuwait and the UAE already have floating regasifica-tion terminals and unless politi-cally unpalatable gas price in-creases for the domestic consumers are implemented, a steady rise in LNG import re-quirements is inevitable. Yemen is perfectly placed to meet this demand.

Hybrid Advantage

Overall, despite the turbulent swings in regional LNG prices and demand, Yemen is well po-sitioned to maximise revenue

from its existing trains and to expand its liquefaction capacity. First, the country’s location makes it what the International Energy Agency (IEA) calls a ‘hybrid’ LNG producer, able to target both the Atlantic and Pa-cific markets.

Related to this geographical flexibility is the elasticity of the offtake deals held by GDF and Total, which allows them to di-vert a large share of their com-bined 4.5mn tpa of contracted Yemeni LNG to higher paying markets. The extra revenue made by exploiting arbitrage in the LNG markets is split be-tween the Yemeni government and private partners, benefiting both. So far this year, the French firms have been able to reroute US-bound cargoes to India, China, Japan, Spain and Ku-wait, netting the government

extra returns of $0.3-15mn per cargo.

Finally, without underesti-mating regional complexities it is important to keep in mind the overall global LNG outlook. Despite the sharp fall in the US gas import demand projections, LNG buyers will continue to outnumber LNG sellers. Ac-cording to the IEA’s 2009 Inter-national Gas Market Review, global liquefaction capacity will increase by 50% in 2008-2013 to 410bcm. In contrast, regasifi-cation capacity will rise from 637bcm at end-2008 to 813bcm just by the end of this year. The discrepancy between world’s supply and demand is clear. Strategically located projects backed by leading global LNG traders and buyers such as Ye-men LNG are well-positioned to exploit this demand.

Decrypting Yemen’s LNG FutureBy Anatoly Kurmanaev, National Yemen

without underes-timating regional complexities it is important to keep in mind the overall global LNG outlook. Despite the sharp fall in the US gas import demand projections, LNG buyers will con-tinue to outnumber LNG sellers.

The gas supply pro-jections for YLNG need to be counter-balanced with the demand outlook.

‘‘

‘‘ After intensive preparations the 3rd Oil, Gas and Minerals Conference begins tomorrow in Sana’a with more than 300 conference delegates regis-tered. Up to ten hydrocarbon blocks are expected to be sold, and 11 opportunities for min-eral mining investments will also be on show.

Around 80 delegates are from international companies with headquarters in Europe, East Asia and the Middle East, representing almost 30 inter-national oil companies.

Around seventy-five scien-tific papers were initially sub-mitted in the call for papers by the preparation committee of the conference. However, only 30 of the most important scien-tific papers, directly related to the events of the conference, have been selected.

The conference is geared to promote investment opportu-nities in the oil, gas and min-eral industries, with these op-portunities being presented in

the conference. The confer-ence expects to agreements reached for many oil, gas and mineral investment opportuni-ties.

Ten onshore and offshore sectors will be open for direct negotiation, in addition to eleven investment opportuni-ties in the field of minerals.

The Ministry of Oil and Minerals will keep to the ob-jectives meant for holding the conference and place Yemen firmly “upon the map” and thereby attracting oil, gas and minerals investment.

The oil blocks presented in the conference will include de-tailed information on the cur-rent status and findings of oil and gas exploration, and any studies and surveys conducted on them.

36 oil companies currently operate in Yemen, ten of which are oil production operators working across 12 producing hydrocarbon blocks.

Sana’a Oil Conference Promises InvestmentFaoud al-Kadi

Continued from ( 1 ) Shamil Bank Invests 6 Bn Riyals in Islamic Banking Software

Sunday, Oct 17, 2010 Issue 18 www.nationalyemen.com12 National YemenREPORT

Ahmed is one of very few farmers in Yemen who would dare to uproot Qat, the tree who’s mildly stimulating leaves that are habitually chewed by the majority in Yemen - a no-ticeably lucrative crop.

“ I wanted to be a good ex-ample for others ... I want to show them that Qat really is not a profitable crop,’’ said Ahmed, while his tractor was pulling Qat roots straight out of his field.

Uprooting Qat is considered a very remarkable step in Ye-men, where Qat chewing is a deeply engrained custom, as many Yemenis believe that Qat as an emblem of social interac-tion; a group communion; an expression of commitment and conformity; a display of reci-procity; an opportunity for con-spicuous consumption, and; a medium of social competition. Gradually, Qat has replaced al-most all other forms of relax-ation and socialising in Yemen.

In addition, nearly one third of the agricultural labour force is engaged in Qat production. That is one in every seven work-ing Yemenis are employed in producing and distributing Qat, making it the second largest source of employment in the country, exceeding even em-ployment in the public sector.

Farmers, who are mostly small plot-holders, like the fact that Qat is not a seasonal crop, that is, it can be brought to har-vest during most months of the year. Qat can be harvested in small or large quantities accord-ing to the farmer’s need for money, and brings cash in on the very day of harvest.

“I don’t know why Ahmed is doing that? He will lost a crop (Qat) was providing him with daily income,’’ said a farmer while watching Ahmed’s tractor was uprooting the Qat.

“In Yemen, there is no other crop can ‘make money’ like Qat. Most farmers consider Qat as a fortune,’’ he added.

“What he will gain in a month for selling the potatoes, I can gain it in one day and one har-vest of Qat,” commented anther farmer.

However Ahmed, despite his neighbours comments, showed determination and insistence to get rid of all Qat trees from his farm.

“Farmers are always alerted and concerned, as Qat cultiva-tion requires round the clock ef-forts; most Farmers stay on the lands guarding the Qat leaves from thieves, which is very ex-hausting. Farmers also have to set up cloth tents on the Qat plantations to protect them from the frost during winter,” Ahmed said.

“Qat may need three layers frost protection, which inevita-bly costs the farmer a lot. Most farmers tend to integrate all his family’s members –wife and children in Qat cultivation which enforce the kids- espe-cially girls to drop out the schools. The whole family also become subjected to dangerous health to risk due to the high amount of pesticides spray on Qat to grantee fast growing. That also impacts negatively the livestock as it gained less atten-tion from the framers who con-suming time either in planting

Qat or chewing Qat, and above all these Qat consume huge amount of water, ’’ demonstrat-ed Ahmed.

These strenuous efforts to grow Qat trees, however, has exacerbated the environmental, medical and social balances of one of the poorest countries in the Middle East.

“Dhamar, for example, used to be the food basket of Yemen, I’m afraid it is not any more due to the aggressive expansion of Qat cultivation,” said Yahya Al-Omari, the governor of Dhamar.

He was pointing out one of the most adverse impacts of the excessive Qat farming in the country, a country which is now importing almost 80 percent of its food.

Thus, Yemen has been sub-stantially affected by a state of food crisis since 2008, when the increase of food prices had a di-

rect impact on many house-holds, especially amongst the poor, who form 40 percent of the 22 million people in Yemen.

Meanwhile, Qat production is increasing by 10 percent a year, replacing food and export-able crops, leading to even fur-

ther household impoverishment and food insecurity. The fact that nearly a fifth of children in Yemen are medically classified as malnourished soberly under-lines the severity of the issue.

Qat has slowed development in Yemen, according to many national and international ex-perts, as it noticeably deterio-rates the economic, social, and medical conditions of its con-sumers, as well as draining the natural water table here.

The World Bank published in 2008 a study focused on the economic, social and medical impacts of Qat in Yemen. The study, which covered 4,027 Ye-menis above the age of 12, and was carried out in seven of Ye-men’s twenty one governorates, found out that Qat consumes 25 to 30% of household income and that chewing it generally occupies between 6 to 8 hours per day. The immediate conse-quence is a dramatic reduction in productive work time, and enormous loss of potential and disposable income.

Moreover, its cultivation has been threatening and even de-pleting the main water source in Yemen - groundwater - taking around 30% of the nation’s groundwater. Yemen, of late, is also undergoing critical water crisis. To add insult to injury, Qat causes further soil degrada-tion by exhausting the natural soil nutrients.

The survey also highlighted the consumers’ perception re-garding the health impacts, in-cluding the neuro-psychological effects of Qat, including insom-nia, suppression of appetite and depression.

The somatic symptoms in-clude high blood pressure, tooth decay, constipation, haemor-rhoids and hernias. But more seriously is the alarming in-crease in cancer cases, liver cir-rhosis and kidney disease, due to consumption of pesticide res-idues, some of which are quite toxic.

The high use of pesticides on the crop has contaminated drinking water as rainwater will be contaminated before it reach-es village wells.

However, besides the adverse impacts on development in the country, Qat also causes adverse social effects. According to the survey, Qat chewing reduces quality time spent with children,

and re-enforces gender separa-tion.

It is also believed to cause a surprising number of domestic disputes over family expendi-ture and long hours away from the family.

Among youth, it is consid-ered to encourage the use of other harmful substances, pro-motes idleness, and its induce-ment of depression leads to loss of hope for the future, resulting

in apathy, short-tempers and anti-social behaviour.

The World Bank has since become involved in the matter. Their involvement has been on the request of the Yemeni gov-ernment, which also started to take action against the tree since 1999, when the government ad-opted major polices aimed at regulating and taxing Qat, in at-tempt to reduce its production as well as its consumption among citizens.

However, due to weak gover-nance in certain rural areas, in-sufficient implementation of taxation, and no enforcement of restrictions of Qat use in gov-ernment offices – weakening the regulations credibility, have all been to the detriment of gov-ernment efforts to curb Qat con-sumption and production.

Subsequently in 2007 the Ye-meni Government, through the Ministry of Planning & Interna-tional Cooperation, requested World Bank assistance in re-viewing its policies and devel-oping an agenda with the donor community.

The following year the World Bank integrated ‘’Qat Demand

Reduction Agenda’ within the context of the Bank’s new Country Assistance Strategy (CAS).

“ Reducing Qat consumption comes within the Bank’s strate-gy objective to improve the quality of life of the most af-fected and vulnerable groups (women, children, and youths), low income communities, farm-ers, and the general public in Yemen,’’ said Julie Viloria, the head of the World Bank’s Qat Dialogue Task Force.

Through a set of interven-tions, involving close partner-ship with the government, civil society bodies, research institu-tions, private sector institutes (including the media and donor community), “the task team is embarking on supporting a comprehensive program to raise public awareness and education on Qat consumption, and its im-pact on people’s lives on the economy and on natural re-sources”, explained Viloria.

The Bank also intends to sup-port research on selected topics such as medical and environ-mental research on Qat con-sumption, sociological research on Qat trading, as well as all its effect on the most vulnerable groups.

The World Bank, in coopera-tion with its partners plans to make available technical ad-vice, equipment, infrastructure support and goods which would facilitate alternative livelihoods, including seedlings of alterna-tive crops to farmers.

Worth mentioning is that al-though the widespread chewing of Qat in Yemen, the perception of this habit is rather negative, according to the World Bank survey. More than 70 percent of the respondents describe Qat chewing as a “bad habit”, that is “bad for the economy and bad for the nation’s image”.

Habitual users want to ‘kick the habit’ but simply cannot, ei-ther because of social pressures or because of a psychological dependency resulting from their prolonged use.

However, some locals, in-cluding figures, local NGO workers, and farmers have tak-en the initiative to find more useful crops to compete against Qat.

For example, in April 2009, the Governor of Dhamar has is-sued directives to the Corpora-

tion of Producing Improved Seeds to supply farmers who were willing to uproot qat and to replace it with alternative crops, with improved seeds.

About thirty eight types of seeds of wheat, corn, lentil and different kinds of grains have so far been distributed - all able to cope with the hard climatic con-ditions of the high plateau.

Technical guidance, as well as water tanks for irrigation has also been provided to farmers by the Dhamar Agricultural Of-fice and the Agricultural Re-search and Extension Authority (AREA).

In addition farmers, who up-rooted Qat, received the pledge that government companies would buy their products at fa-vourable prices of above market value. Upon instruction of Pres-ident Saleh, farmers have re-ceived in addition free of inter-est loans from the Agricultural Credit Bank of up to YR 200,000 (approx $ 1,000) per farmer in order to buy equip-ment for cultivating alternative crops.

In May 2010 the governor of Ibb Ahmad Abdullah Al-Hajri had kicked off the uprooting process of Qat trees in the Ash-wal valley district and replacing them with grains and fruits as part of a forestation campaign.

Farmers in Haraz were con-

vinced to uproot the Qat after a fatwa from their local religious leader that Qat is “Haram” or (illegal / immoral). The reli-gious figure supported farmers financially to enable them to build small wells and replace Qat with Coffee trees.

“It’s very impressive to watch farmers, society, and lo-cal authorities cooperate togeth-er to get rid of this tree and its associated problems,’’ said Viloria while witnessing Ahmed finally uproot the Qat tree.

Uprooting Qat: Yemen’s new challenge

By Amel Al-Ariqi

To his friends’ astonishment Ahmed has uprooted all the Qat trees from his three hectare farm in Dhamar, northern Yemen, to replace it with potatoes.

‘’Dhamer used to be the food basket of Yemen, I’m afraid it is not any more due to the aggressive expansion of Qat cultivation,’’ said the governor of Dhamar. He was pointing out one of the most adverse impacts of the ex-cessive Qat farm-ing in the country, a country which is now importing almost 80 percent of its food.

its cultivation has been threatening and even deplet-ing the main water source in Yemen - groundwater - tak-ing around 30% of the nation’s groundwater

“ Reducing Qat consumption comes within the Bank’s strategy objective to improve the quality of life of the most affected and vulnerable groups (women, children, and youths), low income communities, farmers, and the general public in Yemen,’’ said Julie Viloria, the head of the World Bank’s Qat Dialogue Task Force.

‘‘

‘‘ ‘‘

Sunday, Oct 17, 2010 Issue 18 www.nationalyemen.com 13National Yemen

The situation in south Yemen is escalated again last week in a new spark of rebellion against the government of the country. International news reports cast their attention on the govern-ment’s besiege around a pur-ported AQAP stronghold, which was carried out follow-ing perpetual acts of violence against the government from all over the south.

Local analysts and interna-tional observers call on a politi-cal settlement between the gov-ernment, which is dominated by the northern representatives on one side, and exasperated southerners on the other.

However, the structural, eco-nomic and demographic prob-lems of Yemen might be beyond the capabilities of the govern-ment, according to analysts. It is not AQAP which the govern-ment and donors should be con-centrating on – two other loom-ing crises over shadow the gravity of a deteriorating secu-rity situation.

Both crises are twinned, in-exorably intertwined; one is un-employment, and the other the boom in population. They both threaten of a sense of hopeless-ness and pessimism for Yemen’s fragile future.

In premises of the two offices in the capital Sana’a, twenty Ye-meni young people sit in a circle to discuss their future. All of them are in their twenties and university degree holders. De-spite their enthusiasm and edu-cation achievements, most of them are unemployed.

While these young graduates from the professional training program, directed by Yemen Foundation for Training for Employment, talked optimisti-cally about their hopes of find-ing a job that is rewarding per-sonally and financially, frustration was apparent on their faces for not achieving any suc-cess in this area.

One of these is a civil engi-neering graduate, who applied for a job in almost all the engi-neering firms in the capital. However, he could not find any training opportunities.

After being repeatedly turned down, the students describe themselves as devastated, pes-simistic and disappointed.

Ma’een Al-Iryani, Chairman of the Yemen Foundation for Training for Employment, said that while the rate of unemploy-ment in Yemen is shocking for observers - 35%, the reality is even harder on the youths them-selves.

He said, “Our estimations in-dicate that the rate of unemploy-ment among the youth we deal with, whose ages range between 18 and 28, is around 50%.”

The graduates of Yemen Foundation for Training for Employment have received spe-cialized training in English lan-guage, computer skills, which university graduates usually lack, and many of them will find a job within a few months of the end of the program, a chance only a few Yemenis have.

At a short distance from the place of the foundation, more than 100 young people in over-alls are waiting at the cross-roads, hoping that contractors would select them for work on construction projects around the capital.

Nouf, aged 27, said, “I wait here every day. I will work with anybody. They pay YR 2000 a day (around $9 US), but I only

find work for one or two days a week.”

Many of those are high-school leavers and few are uni-versity degree holders. If the Yemenis who have a good level of education suffer for finding just a few days of work for low wages a week, what will the fu-ture of the country be like?

Growth in the number of youth

The employment prospects for youth in Yemen are very limited. The country is going through a population boom, which is a demographic phe-nomenon in a lot of developing countries when health services improve and lower infant mor-talities. The boom is later stemmed by family planning and contraceptive measures.

Yemen, however, has been stuck in a population boom for a while, and public health ana-lysts are unsure of when the fer-tility rate tide will turn.

The increase in the fertility rate in Yemen is estimated at 4.5 children for each woman, which means that the overall popula-tion grows by almost 3% per year.

The ages of a quarter of the people of Yemen range between 10 and 19 years, which suggests that the youth unemployment crisis might get worse in the medium term. Since 46% of the population are below 16 years old, the picture in the long term is of the same gloominess.

Al-Iryani said, “By the be-ginning of 2020, two million jobs must be created to keep employment rates at controlla-ble levels. The overgrowth of the number of youth together with the increase of unemploy-ment may shake the stability of the country to the core. The youth who lose hope might be unpredictable.”

In recent years, the theory of “the youth surge” has become a lens through which conflicts are commonly viewed by sociolo-gists and anthropologists.

In a report for the Council of Foreign Affairs, Lionel Beiner wrote that the countries which suffer from a surge in the num-ber of youth “mostly have un-employment eventually and the ensuing widespread masses of angry youths are likely to be re-cruited by violent movements. Also, countries with weak po-litical institutions are more vul-nerable to violence and social disorder related to the youth

surge.”According to Population Ac-

tion International, 80% of new civil conflicts occurred between 1970 and 1999 in countries where 60% or more of their population is under the age of 30.

Unemploymentand Instability

Yemen has a long history of instability, and it may limit the chances of the Yemeni youth getting economic opportunities whether the country is able to control various conflicts.

Nevertheless, Raydan Al-Saqqaf, National Coordinator of the International Labor Organi-zation, believes that the unem-ployment rate in the country will definitely go up. He said, “I believe that unemployment is bound to increase because the number of those who enter the labor market greatly outnumber the job opportunities created.”

“The worst scenario is that the youth’s turn from seeking job opportunities into a disaster, which might shake the stability of the country.”

In a response to the question whether the rise in unemploy-ment could lead to a rise in in-stability, the Yemeni political analyst Abdul-Ghani Al-Iryani said, “The clear answer is yes. All these challenges have deep roots in the economic and in-dustrial crisis the country faces. The rise of one problematising factor, like unemployment, will mean the rise of another.”

Although politics is a direct cause of instability, unemploy-ment is one of the many struc-tural causes together with pov-erty, bad lifestyle and lack of social services, which will curve our current problems hyperboli-cally,” Al-Saqqaf added.

The truth is that the conflict in the northern province of Sa’ada has always defied politi-cal settlement. Moreover, these short-term political solutions do nothing for alleviating the ef-fects of economic causes that lie behind the conflict.

In this respect Ma’een Al-Iryani said, “I think that the real credit of our country is the hu-man resources. If we want to survive, the government has to allocate its sources to the devel-opment of the human resources and the job market.”

Although many people have benefited from the demographic results, which results from in-creased population, where edu-cated youth have positively

contributed to the economic de-velopment, the rate of invest-ment growth in human capital in Yemen remains very low.

Education was only relative-ly accessible to a small percent-age of the population (around 50% of Yemenis are illiterate), and even those who hold uni-versity degrees rarely have the required skills for success in places of modern labor.

Al-Iryani has had students who have certificates in Infor-mation Technology (IT) he dis-covered they were not compe-tent at using Microsoft office suite programs and English lan-guage graduates who, in many times, could not make simple conversation with English speakers.

Investment

in Education

To address these flaws, and consequently turning the “youth surge” into an unbridled oppor-tunity for economic improve-ment, Al-Iryani suggests raising the funds allocated for the tech-nical education and vocational training. By including vocation-al training programs directed for employment, work opportu-nities will noticeably increase.

With only 1.4% of Yemeni students enrolled at present in technical and vocational train-ing, this goal is still a very long way off.

Al-Iryani also cast light on the importance of the Gulf part-ners of Yemen. He said, “If we want to survive, we will need to create more work opportunities

at the regional level as well, es-pecially in the Gulf, where there is a large labour market, which is often filled by non-Gulfis. However, we need to provide better education because they will not accept unskilled labor any more, for they can have it more cheaply from south-east Asia.”

He added, “While the main security crises in Yemen con-tinue to get the attention of the media outlets, it is so important not to forget the adversity of the youth of Yemen. Worst scenario is that these youths turn form an opportunity into a catastrophe, because this may increase the instability of the country.”

Unemployed Youth in Yemen: Ticking Time Bomb

REPORT

National YemenNATIONAL YEMEN VACANCY NOTICE

Role JUNIOR NEWS / NEWS ANALYSIS JOURNALISTS

Number of vacan-cies

Three

Application dead-line

24 October 2010

Start date Immediate

Starting salary $250 USD monthly salary + benefits

Work pattern Full-time (45 hour weeks) / irregular shifts (journalists will be required to travel)

Description The NATIONAL YEMEN (NY) newspaper requires two staff journalists to cover ‘breaking news’ and ‘news analysis’ articles. Journalists must be prepared to travel frequently, and at short no-tice, to provide coverage around Yemen.

Our news journalists will be required to write approximately 1000 words of ‘news’ articles, and 2000 words of ‘news analysis’ articles each week on pre-agreed topics, meeting appropriate deadlines.

Journalists will be required to attend two weekly staff meetings at NY HQ, and also to complete our journalism training packages.

Eligibility We are looking for young, reliable, articulate journalists.

No specific background in journalism is required, as training will be given. This vacancy will be most suitable to recent Yemeni graduates.

Journalists will be expected to be punctual and to meet both our deadlines and our standards. Failure to meet either our deadlines or our high professional standards may result in instant dismissal.

Advanced English language competency is required. Journalists will be expected to be compe-tent computer users.

Incentives In time we will offer an improved salary, commensurate with the journalists’ competency and professional development.

This job is also an excellent opportunity to begin a promising career, and will provide excellent professional training. It also may lead to international coverage of a journalist’s work.

Apply Applicants should send a covering email, their CV, including all contact details, and also a sample of their written work. The written sample should be 800 words long, in a ‘news analysis’ style, on a subject of their choice.

Selection Applicants will be contacted within three days, if they have been successful. The applicant will be expected to attend an assessment day and interview within one week, and will be expected to write a further article, of our choice.

Selected applicants will work for one month on a non-paid probation status after being se-lected. If the trainee journalist meets our deadlines and reaches our standards over the pro-bationary period, they will be fully welcomed to a permanent position with us, with full pay.

By Khaled Hussein Ghalib

Sunday, Oct 17, 2010 Issue 18 www.nationalyemen.com14 National YemenSPORT

The ghosts of their previous meetings with Yemen came back to haunt the Indian team as they were beaten by a com-prehensive 6-3 margin in the friendly at Balewadi stadium on Wednesday.

Riding high on the wave of their success against Vietnam , the Indian team suffered a jolt as early as the ninth minute when Yemen managed to beat Indian keeper Subrata Pal through Haithm Thabit. Clif-ford Miranda was substituted with Steven Dias in the 13 th minute.

The 20th minute offered some cheer to the Indian camp when Aref Dali in a total mis-match of a judgement call man-aged to net the ball into his own net, thereby nullifying the lead. However even though India tried hard repeatedly to enter into the opponents’ half, the at-tempts were at best termed modest. Coach Bob Houghton’s words from the first match, where the players had been un-able to finish off the plays by

shooting wide at the goal, came to haunt the team as the for-wards missed some excellent chances to take the lead.

The 28 th minute saw them regain their one goal lead when Khaled Baleid managed to score off a series of brilliant runs by the Yemen midfielders. The two teams went into the break with a 2-1 scoreline. In-dia came into the second half looking confident when they equalised immediately in the 49 th minute through Abhishek Ya-dav. And though the Indian team looked like they had re-ceived a shot in the arm the run just continued on a downslide for them.

Akram Wafi scored in the 61 st minute, and Ala Sasi scored again in the 77 th minute to open up the margin against the Indians. The woes compounded when 11 minutes later - in the 88 th minute - Sasi scored again to make the scoreline 5-3.

And just when the aisles had begun to empty with an obvious result looming in the air, there

was more drama to come in in-jury time, as Surkumar Singh through a brilliant run managed to score a goal in the 92nd min-ute of the five minutes of extra time. However it was plain shoddy defending on the part of the Indians as Yemen on the break after the goal came back strongly through Yaser Ba Haj and managed to score another goal for Yemen and the final scoreline was 6-3. India who had lost to Yemen 2-1 earlier when they had played them at their home turf were facing a West Asian opponent for the first time after the 2009 Nehru Cup.

India now go into a two week vacation after which they as-semble in November for their matches that they will be play-ing in Dubai before the be-ginnning of the Asia Cup next year. Coach Bob Houghton however did rue the lost chanc-es and the poor finishing that cost the team dearly.

Last week the events of the 2nd Qahtan Al-Sha’bi champi-onship for fencing and eques-trian events concluded last Wednesday at the Police Col-lege for Fencing in Sana’a.

The youth championship was concluded in the presence of the Chairman of the Shura Council Mr. Abdul-Aziz Ab-dul-Ghani, the Minister of State for the Parliament and Shura Affairs, Ahmed Al-Kuh-lani, Minister of Information, Dr. Mohammed Abu Bakr Al-Miflihi, Sheikh Hashed Al-Ah-mar, Vice Minister of Youth and Sports and the Chairman of the Yemen Federation for Equestrian and Camels.

The final competitions of the tournament including bar-rier jumping for children and juniors of one round over 11 barriers with the height of 60 to 70 cm, with the participation of 24 jockeys.

In the results of the competi-tions, Jockey Ilias Mu’adh Al-Khamisi, on his horse “Masha’ Allah” from the stud of Sheikh Al-Ahmar, won first place at a time of 47 seconds. Jockey Amro Al-Zabeedi, on his horse “Al-Anqa’a” from the Horse-

manship Club, won second place by 47.23 seconds; while Jockey Anas Al-Matari won third place by 48.58 seconds on his horse “Al-Saqlawyah from the Police College.

Jockey Al-Bara’ Al-Ghazali, on his horse “Al-Zahrah” from the stud of Sheikh Hussein Al-Ahmar, won the fourth place by 48.71 seconds; while Jock-ey Amjad Shadhan won fifth place by 48.89 seconds on his horse “Al-Baida’a” from the Police College.

The competitions of the championship for the children category, which was inaugu-rated last Saturday resulted in the Jockey Mostafa Shaye’s winning first place, from the Police College, followed by Jockey Amjad Shadhan in the second place and Jockey Mon-ther Al-Dubba from the Mili-tary College in the third place.

Thirty-two jockeys partici-pated in the competitions of the championship, representing seven bodies: the Police Col-lege, the Military College, the Yemen Club for Equestrian, the Stud of Sheikh Abdullah Al-Ahmar, Al-Jar Farm and the Yemen Economic Corporation.

Yemen Trounce India

Shura Council Chairman Watches Al-Sha’bi Fencing Championship FinalsBy Abdul-Karim Mofadhal

The Arab Federation for Fencing honored our national children and juniors’ team with the Victor Haddad cup, signify-ing Yemen’s place as the best team in the 17th Arab champi-onship, which was recently hosted in the Lebanese capital Beirut.

The Yemeni team, one of 11 in the championship, was hon-ored by the Secretary-General of the Arab Fencing Federation Dr. Khaled Atyyat, who wel-comed Yemen’s return to the sport. The coach of the national team, Mr. Zubair Abdul-Salam, received the cup.

The Arab Federation also honored those who contributed to the success of the champion-ship, among them being the Secretary-General of the Yemen Federation for Fencing Mr. Bassam Bishr.

The award is a great boost for the morale of the players of

our national children and ju-niors team, in addition to the individual results they achieved in the championship, after an absence from the Arab fencing arena since 2006.

Arab Fencing Federation Awards Yemen Best TeamBeirut – Mohammed Al-Bahri,

United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) Yemen, through Transparency Advo-cacy Project for Media and CSOs holds the training course above in Sana’a during 4 - 15 December 2010.

Training will be implemented by International Center for Journalist (ICFJ) based in Washington, USA aiming at enhancing performance and capacity development by upgrad-ing knowledge and improving skills of editors in chief, managers and/or owners of media institutions in Yemen.Participants’ selection criteria: • Applicants should be editors or hold managerial positions at media outlets (print, radio,

or website).

• Holds a relevant academic degree with minimum 5 years experience.

• Should have enthusiasm and well prepared to attend all training sessions from 8am - 4pm.

• Both; applicant and his/her institution most have necessary permission in the field of media in accordance with the country’s regulations.

The Project invites media leaders to submit letters of interest from their media organiza-tions, enclosing your CV and mentioning your journalistic and managerial roles in your institution.

Please apply to the address below – applications are accepted form all media outlets. The Project will make sure to keep balance in the participating between governmental, political parties and independent media institutions. Three months Online mentor will be provided for all trainees after training course.

Yemeni Media Top Management Training

Deadline for applications: Wednesday 27 October 2010.For more info please contact the following address:P O Box 551UNDP Sana’aTransparency Advocacy ProjectAttn: Mr. Hassan Al-Ansi Project Manager - Phone: 712221950 Email: hassan.al-ansi@undp.org

   

 

 

Transparency Advocacy Project

Sunday, Oct 17, 2010 Issue 18 www.nationalyemen.com 15National Yemen CONGRATULATIONS

Sunday, Oct 17, 2010 Issue 18 www.nationalyemen.com16 National YemenADVERTISEMENTS

Now you can book & get your tickets through www.yemenia.com