National Statistics Status and Results
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Transcript of National Statistics Status and Results
National Statistics Status and Results
Alex HasbachDaniel Karp
Heather Tallis
OutlineMethods• Acquired data and limitations
Results• Global trajectories• Temporal tradeoffs between services• Spatial tradeoffs between services• Imports vs. In-Country Production
Acquired Data- Broad Categories
• Crop production
• Livestock production
• Timber production
• Water production
Valuation
• SLC (Standard Local Currency)– Producer prices in local currency
• PIN– Use international commodity prices so that
exchange rates are not needed. – “International dollars.” Same price, regardless of
the country it was produced. 1999-2001 prices.– Geary Khamis formula
Broad Category Sub Category Variable ObtainedCrops Total Production
Value
Export: Production
Export: Value
Import: Production
Import: Value
Forage Production
Value
Export: Production
Export: Value
Import: Production
Import: Value
13 Primary Crops Production
Value
Export: Production
Export: Value
Import: Production
Import: Value
Livestock Live Animals Heads/Stocks
Value
Export: Production
Export: Value
Import: Production
Import: Value
Primary Products Heads/Stocks
Value
Export: Production
Export: Value
Import: Production
Import: Value
Processed Products Production
Value
Obtained: Missing:
Roundwood Production Total Quantity
Value
Export: Production
Export: Value
Import: Production
Import: Value
Water Total Quantity
Value
Municipal Withdrawal Quantity
Value
Industrial Withdrawal Quantity
Value
Agricultural Withdrawal Quantity
Value
Obtained: Missing:
Water Values?
Global water tariffs database assigned by public utility.
Done by organization for economic co-operation and development (OECD) and Global Water Intelligence (GWI)
Need to subscribe to database.
261 cities worldwide
15m3/d water, include fixed and variable charges, then divide by 15
Uncertainty• FAO Categories:– M: Missing data– R: Estimated data (using trading partners database)– F: FAO estimate (used for quantities, like tonnes)– Fc: Calculated data (used for functions, like yield)– L: Modeled data– A: Aggregate (official, semi-official, or estimated data)– *: Unofficial Figure
• Data may be 0 or blank• For: (1) total crops, (2) 13 crops, (3) primary livestock
products, (4) processed livestock products, (5) live animals values are summed
• Therefore, we are analyzing reported not actual production
Preliminary Results
• All focus on:– Total Timber Production– Total Livestock Production– Total Crop Production
Raw Data- Exports of 13 Crops in 1995
Global Trajectories
• Countries are included if– Nonzero values of production are reported for all
years– At least 7 unique values are given
Crops
Livestock
Timber
Temporal Tradeoffs Between Services
• Only included a country, if for each service:– At least 6 unique values of production are given
over the 14-year span
Livestock and Crops
Timber and Crops
Livestock and Timber
Tradeoffs in Services Over Space
• Only included a country if for both services….– A non-zero value of production was reported for the
year in question• Production is reported per total country area
(1000ha)
Water- 2000
P=.06
Tradeoffs in Trade
• Only included a country if:– At 7 least, unique, non-zero years of data were reported– No blanks occurred in the dataset
Timber: Production vs. Imports
Livestock: Production vs. Imports
Next steps? Directions?
• Are these analyses useful? • Aggregation and summing over missing values?• Trend in increasing correlation coefficients?• Is water data worthwhile?• Should we add water price? • Multiply livestock by masses?• How do we combine this with modeling results?
Extra Slides
Net Total Crops (no feed/seed)
Quantity (tonnes)Value (SLC)
13 Primary Crops
Quantity (tonnes)Value (PIN)
Crops for ForageQuantity (tonnes)Value (SLC)
Import Crops Export CropsQuantity (tonnes)Value (PIN)
Quantity (tonnes)Value (PIN)
Import Crops Export CropsQuantity (tonnes)Value (PIN)
Quantity (tonnes)Value (PIN)
Import Crops Export CropsQuantity (tonnes)Value (PIN)
Quantity (tonnes)Value (PIN)
Ag Value- Livestock Value(counts processed products.
Wine, e.g)
Total Livestock
Heads/stocks Value
Live Animals
QuantityValue
Primary Products (eggs, milk, etc.)
Quantity (tonnes)Value (PIN)
Processed Products(butter etc.)Quantity (tonnes)Value
Red indicatesmissing information
ImportExportQuantity (tonnes)Value (PIN)
Quantity (tonnes)Value (PIN)
ImportExportQuantityValue (PIN)
Quantity Value (PIN)
Total Roundwood Production
VolumePIN value
Import Roundwood
Quantity (volume)Value
Export RoundwoodVolumePIN value
Red indicatesmissing information
Roundwood: “Wood in natural state as felled. All wood from trees inside and outside forest including from natural, felling, or logging losses. Commodities include: sawlogs, pulpwood, fuelwood, etc. ”
Total Water Withdrawal
Quantity (volume)Value
Municipalwithdrawal
Quantity (volume)Value
Industrial withdrawal
Quantity (volume)Value
AgriculturalwithdrawalQuantity (volume)Value
Red indicatesmissing information
NOTE: Data is very spotty. Max 3 data points per country (usually less)