National Report DFO EC

CONCEPTS

Fraser Davidson1, Hal Ritchie2 , Greg Smith2 ,

Youyu Lu1, Jean-Francois Lemieux2, Pierre

Pellerin2, Fred Dupont2, Francois Roy2

1 Fisheries and Oceans Canada, CANADA: NAFC + BIO

2 Meteorological Research Division, Environment Canada, Dorval + Dartmouth

• Enhance value of ocean observations

• Reconstruct current and past ocean states

• Predict future ocean, atmosphere and ice

conditions

Canada requires ice-ocean forecasts and information services for:

• Improvements to regional/global weather forecasts days/seasons are expected.

• Canadian Ice Service & Canadian Coast

Guard Ice Operations

• Fisheries and aquaculture management

• Interpreting biological observations

• Regional climate change impacts

• Risk assessments for extreme events

• Emergency response: Search and Rescue, dispersion of pollutants

• Offshore Oil and Gas Industry. Fog prediction, Pack Ice and Iceberg Management, Deep Water Riser Vibration Prediction, Site planning, Deep well blow outs

• Forecasting arrival of hazardous ice that

will shut operation down

• Local ice drift speed and direction for ice

management

NEED FOR FORECASTS

Page 4 – November-14-12

Inter-Departmental

Collaboration MOU

Partnership

Data Assimiliation Codes

Mecator Ocean Modelling Algorithms

Data Exchange Agreements

CONCEPTS Budget linked to Annual workplan and report

Canadian Operational Network

of Coupled Environmental PredicTion Systems

CONCEPTS

NEMO Ice-ocean modelling for Coupled Systems

CONCEPTS GLOBAL • Global 1/4° resolution (9-24km)

– Medium range forecasting

• Global 1° resolution – Monthly-to-seasonal forecasting

CONCEPTS REGIONAL • N. Atlantic and Arctic 1/12° (3-8km)

– Short-to-medium regional forecasting • Great lakes and Gulf of St. Lawrence (2

and 5km resp.) – Short term coupled forecasting

1/4° Global 1° Global

1/12° N. Atlantic +

Arctic

GDPS Re-Forecast (CGRF) “recast”

Atmospheric Forcing Product derived from

running operational forecasts with operational

analysis over 2002-2010

Based on the global (33km) operational

deterministic model (GEM)

Restarted 0Z for 30h from operational analysis

Corrected from radiation biases using GEWEX

Provides more detail then ERA interim

Vorticity maps Northern H 2002-01-01

Vorticity (s-1)

ERA Interim 0.25 o

Vorticity maps Northern H 2002-01-01

Vorticity (s-1)

GDPS 33 KM

Evaluation against IMS analyses

• IMS Analyses:

– Interactive Multisensor Snow and Ice Mapping

System (NOAA-NIC)

– Daily Northern Hemisphere ice analyses on 4km

grid (ice/water)

– Assimilates : AVHRR, GOES, SSM/I

• Evaluation Methodology:

– Interpolate model forecasts to IMS grid

– Calculate contingency table values using 0.4 ice

concentration cutoff

– Bin results on 1° lat-lon grid

– Compare to persistence

IMS Ice IMS No ice

Forecast

Ice

Hit ice False

Alarm

Forecast

No ice

Miss Hit water

10day ice forecast

Misses

Persistence of ice analysis Model Forecast

Ice? YIMS NIMS

YFcst Hit ice False

Alarm

NFcst Miss Hit

water

• 2011-02-05

10 day ice forecast

Misses

False

Alarms

Persistence of ice analysis Model Forecast

Ice? YIMS NIMS

YFcst Hit ice False

Alarm

NFcst Miss Hit

water

• Proportion Correct Ice

– PCI= Hits ice / (Hits + Misses)

– Skillful forecasts along ice edge

– Some errors near coast

• Proportion Correct Water

– PCW= Hits water / (Hits water +

False Alarms)

– Small errors along ice edge

– Correct lead formation near coast

ΔPCI ( Fcst – Pers)

ΔPCW ( Fcst – Pers)

Accumulated statistics for 5 day lead Jan-Dec, 2011 (52 forecasts)

Ice? YIMS NIMS

YFcst Hit ice False

Alarm

NFcst Miss Hit

water

CONCEPTS GLOBAL Plans

• Continue routine analysis/forecast production and

evaluate

– Un-coupled System

– Coupled System

– Add CLASS1 and CLASS4 output for GODAE inter-comp.

• Un-coupled to be transferred to operations early 2013

• Improve blending of SAM2 and 3DVAR ice analysis

system

• Evaluate use of Cryosat2 altimetry data

Satellite Altimetry

Satellite tracks

Simulated Dec 5 2011

Envisat

______

1 satellites

3 tracks daily across

Beaufort Sea

Further north, track

frequency increases

Reasonable good

coverage from

altimeters

Satellite tracks

for Dec 5 2011

Envisat

Cryosat

2 satellites

6 tracks daily across

Beaufort Sea

Further north, track

frequency increases

Reasonable good

coverage from

altimeters

Without CRYOSAT

Present Satellite

tracks for one day

over Canadian

Archipelago

Satellite Altimetry

Satellite tracks

for Dec 5 2011

_______

Cryosat

1 satellite

3 tracks daily across

Beaufort Shelf

Further north, track

frequency increases

AltiKa Expected

In a few months will

provide good

coverage again

across artic

CONCEPTS CREG DOMAIN

• Build on CONCEPTS / METAREA

developments

• Develop coupled forecasting system

– N. America/Arctic

• Couple NEMO to GEM regional

(10km)

• 5km LAM over METAREAS 17&18

with 5km Atm 4DVAR/EnKF

• Produce

– 48hr weather and marine forecasts

– 10 day ocean forecasts (non coupled)

1/12°

GEM RDPS

10km

CREG Domain presentation: 1580x1817x50

512 procs + 271 land procs

Extracted from ORCA12

(Mercator) with the north fold

stitched back. Regional

CONCEPTS domain (CREG).

Replaces C-NOOFS system.

Hindcast: 4 day run in 23 minutes

(1 year in 1.5 day).

Resolution maximum near the

artificial pole 1.8 km

Covers part of North Atlantic

(27N), the whole Arctic Ocean.

north fold on

the ORCA

family grid

First Rossby radius of deformation from

Mercator ORCA12 (2003-01)

1st R-Radius (km) Log10(R-Radius / dx)

2km

20km

CREG12 hindcast 01 ORCA12

16-OCT-2003

Comparison of surface velocity depicting

the lack of KE

CREG12 hindcast 02 ORCA12

16-MAR-2003

Comparison of surface velocity depicting

the lack of KE

2 CONCEPTS regional projects

• BREA Project: Enhancement of METAREA SYSTEM

– Improve Data Assimilation/Ocean Model

– Add wave-ice interaction for floe size prediction in MIZ

– Add new rheology and ice physics within CICE ice model

– Implement validation protocol and dissiminate data

• Industry funded Zoom Project: April 2013 – April 2016

– High Res 1/36o (2 km) zoom ocean-Ice operational forecasts

– 50/50 split R&D / Op Implementation

– Post project operations of forecast systems ensured by EC

BREA Project Timeline

Hindcast 1

Hindcast 2

Hindcast 3

Fcst 1

Fcst 2

Fcst 3

March 2012

March 2013

March 2014

March 2015

Validation H Validation H Validation H

Validation F Validation F Valid. F

Model Improvements

Asssimilation Implementation 025 12th

New Ice Rheology

Land fast ice

Waves and Ice for Marginal Ice Zone

Implementation of test web site Project web site

Coastal Environmental Emergency Response System

• ESRF Project $1.41M

• High-resolution (2km) nested ice-ocean

model within METAREA/BREA system

• Delivery to CMC operations

• Aim: Produce 3D currents required for oil

spill drift and environmental emergencies

• Apr 2013 – Mar 2016

• Focus on delivering operational system

• May provide 1/36o CREG op system in

2015

BREA: Waves &Ice

Floe size distribution in the marginal ice zone is mostly controlled by

wave…by fragmenting ice floes through flexural failure

Floe Size Forecasts being added to METAREA for Marginal Ice zones

Coupling Wave and Ice model

• Wave energy

attenuates

exponentially when

propagating in the

ice pack and the

attenuation is

spectrally slective.

In Situ / Sat. Data for Validation & Assimilation

Arctic Net

CTD Data CLIVAR

Data

ICES CTD

transects

Envisat

Track Data

Arcic Net

CTD Data

“Northern Watch” camp

at Gascoyne Inlet

ADCP provides:

- ice presence and drift speed

- currents

- zooplankton biomass index

CTD provides 40 m Temperature and Salinity

Shore station provides

- barometric pressure

Data in numerical form are available in real time at: ftp://starfish.mar.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/pub/ocean/PittmanM/BSRT/2012-

2013/

Salinity at 40m Sept 4-7 corresponds to day of ice

freezeup (mid-late october) r2 = 0.85

Early summer temperature at 40m corresponds to

summer biomassindex r2 = 0.92

Barrow Straight Observations

Page 33 – November-14-12

Recreating Drifter track data

23 Drifter tracks [surface + 10m]

MMB5410 201012_20110222.avi

Validation opportunity for high resolution forecast system

Difference Air temp.

Coupled - Uncoupled

The Coupled Gulf of St. Lawrence System

Coupled Gulf of St.Lawrence System

Impacts on low level clouds (air-ocean exchanges)

Uncoupled Fully coupled a) b)

c)

Water

Ice

Clouds

AVHRR

Nova-

Sco

tia

New-Brunswick

P-E. I.

Cape-Breton

M. I.

Clouds

over

Ice

Ice

Water Ice

Ice

The Coupled Gulf of St. Lawrence System

Example of Web Site for Output

Develops and tests:

• science-based technologies and strategies

to guide response to marine hazards as they

occur (1hr ->3 months)

• new tools to anticipate, plan and adapt to

changing patterns of marine emergencies

and extremes of the future (seasons to a

century) while optimizing the socioeconomic

benefits of marine related activities.

• Train highly qualified personnel with multiple

skills in the broad range of disciplines, and

settings, related to marine environment risk

and response and policy strategies.

Academia

Government

Private Sector

Observation

Prediction Response

MEOPAR in a Nutshell

• Network of Centres of Excellence (NCE) funded recently by the Canadian Government

• $25M from the NCE over five years

• 80 research scientists from 15 post secondary institutions in Canada,

• 15 private partners

• 20 community partners

• Research program linked/complimentary to government partner activities (CONCEPTS and others within DFO and EC)

• Address needs of partners and stakeholders • Build on existing capability and prior projects

Theme 1 Hours - Seasons

Theme 2 Seasons - Decades

1.2 Building a Network of Fixed

Coastal Observing / Forecast

Systems 1.1 A Relocatable Coupled

Atmosphere-Ocean Prediction

System

2.1 Climate Change and Extreme

Events in the Marine

Environment

2.2 Biogeochemical Projections

Under a Changing Climate

DND

MyOcean

European

Core Service

EN

D -

US

ER

S

DFO

EC

Research

&

Development Im

ple

men

tati

on

Mercator

Partners

Operations

CONCEPTS STATUS REVIEW

CREG 12 CONCEPTS

GLOBAL

CONCEPTS

GLOBAL

GSL Great Lakes GLOBAL CPL

CREG 12

CREG 12

CPL Great Lakes

GLOBAL CPL CREG 12

Re-analysis

Project 4: Gulf St-Lawrence

Atm.-Ocean-Ice Short term High-Resolution

Project 3: Great-Lakes

Atm.-Lakes-Ice Short term High-Resolution

Project 2: Arctic-North-Atlantic CREG DOMAIN

Page 42 – November-14-12

PRNL RFP

“Joint Industry Project for Enhanced

Iceberg and Sea Ice Drift Forecasting”

• …determine if improvements in existing iceberg and sea

ice forecasting models can have a real impact on

operational decision-making and resource planning in

terms of reliability and cost effectiveness.