National Program in Weather Mod 1966.pdf”

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ICAS Report No. 10 aNovember 1966

A Recommended National ProgramIn Weather Modification

A Report to theInterdepartmental Committee for

Atmospheric Sciences

Homer E. NewellbY

Associate Administrator for Space Science and ApplicationNational Aeronautics Si Space AdministrationWashington, D.C.

Interdepartmental Committeefor

Atmospheric Sciences

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FEDERAL COUNCIL FOR SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGYINTERDEPARTMENTAL COMMITTEE FOR ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

U.S.DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCEWASHINGTON, D.C. 2 0 2 3 0

ICAS Report No. 10a

November 7, 1966

MEMORANDUM FOR DR. DONALD F. HORNIGSubject: Weather Modification Program

At its meeting of March 29, 1966 the Fe~dr61 ouncil askel ICASto prepare a report outlining "who is doing what in weathermodification, the future plans of the agencies (particularlyCommerce and Interior) and their interrelationships, and theconsiderations that should affect decisions on the division ofresponsibilities for research in weather modification."Forwarded herewith is a Report prepared for ICAS by 3r. Homer E.Newell, the NASA member of ICAS. It has been thoroughly con-sidered by our Committee and is endorsed as the ICAS responseto the Council's request above.

J. Herbert HollomonChairman


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A Recommended National ProgramIn Weather Modification

A Report to theInterdepartmental Committee for

Atmospheric SciencesbY

Homer E. Newel1Associate Administrator for Space Science and Applications

lVational Aer onadcs A Space AdministrationWashington, D.C.'

1 October 1966


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A RECOMMENDED NATIONAL PROGRAM IN WEATHER MODIFICATION

INTRODUCTIONThe earth'sJeather has a profound influence on

agriculture, forestry, water resources, industry, com-merce, transportation, construction, field operations,commercial fishing, and many other human activities.Adverse effects of weather on man's activities and theearth's resources are extremely costly, amounting tobillions of dollars per year, sometimes causingirreparable damage as when human lives are lost insevere storms. There is, therefore, great motivationto develop effective countermeasures against thedestructive effects of weather, and, conversely, toenhance the beneficial aspects. The financial andother benefits to human welfare of being able tomodify weather to augment water supplies, reducelightning, suppress hail, mitigate tornados, andinhibit the full development of hurricanes would bevery great.

Over the past twenty years experiments have beenconducted on weather modification, particularly on theeffects of seedinq clouds with such materials assilver iodide crystals. The results are limited.Under suitable circumstances it has been possible toaugment precipitation by ten to twenty percent, and toreduce the frequency of fire-producing lightningstrokes. Effects on hail production have been noted,sometimes suppression and sometimes augmentation.These results probably would be of only passing interestwere it not for the potential importance to mankindof further progress in this field. Perhaps the mostsignificant result of the experiments to date has beento bring about a change in attitude from one ofskeptici9m to one of cautious optimism. The limitedsuccess to date is encouraging, and underscores the


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importance of pressing forward with the necessary researchto understand the dynamics of weather systems that willhave to be dealt with in any efforts at weather modifica-tion.

The gradually accumulating evidence of positiveresults from efforts at weather modification led theCommittee on Atmospheric Sciences of the NationalAcademy of Sciences, in November 1963,to appoint aPanel on Weather and Climate Modification "to undertakea deliberate and thoughtful review of the present statusand activities in this fieldq and of its potential andlimitations for the future." The Panel made its reportat the beginning of this calendar year (Ref. 1). Thecomposition of the NAS Panel is given in App. I, togetherwith a list of the Panel's recommendations. Elaborationand discussion of these recommendations may be foundin Ref. 1.

On June 16, 1964, the Director of the NationalScience Foundation announced the appointment of aSpecial Commission on Weather Modification.in its review of the field, the Commission activatedseven subgroups to study the physical, biological,statistical, social, international, legal and legis-lative, and administration and funding aspects ofweather and climate modification. The membership ofthe Commission and a list of the principal recommen-dations of the Commission are attached (App. 11).Fdrther elaboration and discussions of those recom-mendations may be found in the Commission's report andthe report of the subgroups (Refs. 2 and 3).

To assist

* Final Report of the Panel on Weather and Climate Modi-fication to the Committee on Atmospheric Sciences, NationalAcademy of qciences-National Research Council; "Weatherand Climate Modification," Volume I-Summary and Recommenda-tions, Publication No. 1350, 1966, pg vii


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With the growing conviction of positive and poten-tial results, a number of government agencies have beendeveloping plans for research and ultimately operationalprograms in weather and climate modification. Some ofthese plans stem from the desire to use weather modifi-cation to meet specific mission responsibilities suchas development of water resources, protection of crops,protection against forest fires, ecc: Other plans stem- m dire= responsibility for furthering our under-standing of weather and its uses. A summary report,"Present and Future Plans of Federal Agencies inWeather-Climate Modification," dated June 20, 1966, wasprepared for the Interdepartmental Committee forAtnospheric Sciences (ICAS) by a Select Panel on WeatherModification (App. 111). -Whereas the ICAS Select Panelreport reflected a desirable vigor in pressing forwardin this important field, nevertheless, it raised anumber of questions as to the soundness and adequacy ofproposed plans, the validity of cost estimates, theavailsbility of trained people to meet the schedulesproposed, overlapping of research activities, duplicationof proposed facilities, responsibility for coordinationand reporting, and responsibility for regulation andcontrol.

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To discharge its responsibilities, CAS must provideanswers to these questions and make appropriate recommen-dations. To this end, the Chairman of ICAS, Dr. HerbertHollomon, asked me to review the proposed plans and tosubmit recommendations that might be adopted by ICAS fora report to Dr. Donald F. Hornig, Director of the Officeof Science and Technology, Executive Office of the President.TERMS OF REFERENCE FOR THIS STUDY

The terns of reference for this study are set forthin the memorandum from Dr. Hollomon to me (App. IV),specifically requesting me to formulate a National Weather


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M o d if ic a ti o n Program a l o n g t h e l i n e s d e l i n e a t e d i n t h er e p o r t of t h e ICAS S e l e c t P a n e l on Weather Modi f i ca t ion .APPROACH

I h av e t ak en t h e ICAS Se l e c t Pa ne l Repor t (App. 111)a s my s t a r t i n g p o i n t , and h av e u se d t h e NAS P an e l and NSFSp ec ia l Commission Repo rts (Refs . 1, 2, 3 ) a s s o u r c es o fe x p e r t t h i n k i n g on t h e s u b j e c t . I n o r d e r t o p e n e t r a t ei n s u f f i c i e n t d e p t h i n t o t h e p rob lems i n v o l v e d , I p u tt o g e t h e r a p a n e l of NASA e x p e r k s , t h e c o n s t i t u t i o n ofwhich i s g i v en i n App. V . W e m e t a number of t i m e s w i t hr e p r e s e n t a t i v e s from t h e De pa rtm en t o f A g r i c u l t u r e , t h eE n v iro nmen ta l Sc i en ce Se rv i c es A d m i n i s t r a t i o n ( E SSA) , t h eIn t e r i o r D ep a r t men t ' s Bureau o f Rec lama ti o n, and t h eNat iona l S c ien ce Foundation (NSF), t o hea r b r i e f i n g s onprogram plans and budgets , t o d i s c u s s p ro po se d s c h e d u l e s ,s t a f f i n g , f a c i l i t y c o n s t r u c t i o n , and o p e r a t i o n s , and t or evi ew i n s o m e d e t a i l t h e v a l i d i t y o f c o s t es t imates .W e r ece i v e d f ro m t h es e ag en c i e s a co n s i d e rab l e volume ofsupp ort i ng documentat ion . Appendix V a l s o i n c l u d e s achronology of Pan el me et ing s , and a l i s t o f m a t e r i a lrev iewed by the Pane l .

I e l e c t e d t o c o n c e n t r a t e a t t e n t i o n on t h e abovef o u r a g en c i e s, s i n c e t h e i r p ro gra ms, a s s e t f o r t h i nt h e ICAS Se l e c t P a n e l R e p o r t , p r o j e c t t o over 98% oft h e t o t a l n a t i o n a l we ath er m o d if i c a ti o n a c t i v i t y i n1970 . Because th e programs of t h e Department of D efense,t h e Fed e ra l A v i a t i o n Agency, and t h e N a t i o n a l A ero n au t i c sand Space Ad min i s t ra t ion w e r e such a s m a l l p a r t o f t h et o t a l , t he y w e r e n o t r ev ie we d i n d e t a i l .

I n a s s e ss i n g t h e v a l i d i t y o f cos t e s t i m a t e s , Isough t t o d e t e rmi n e r e a l i s t i c and reasonab le orde r s ofm ag nitu de . P a r t i c u l a r a t t e n t i o n was p a i d t o a s s e s s i n g* Hencefor th the NASA Panel w i l l be r e f e r r e d t o s implya s " t h e Pa n el ."


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t h e r e a l i s m of t h e es t imates of manpower resources anda v a i l a b i l i t y , a nd t h e i r im pact on p o ss i b l e r a t e s of growth.I a l s o so ug ht t o s e p a r a t e t ho s e a r e a s m e r i t in g e a r l ya t t e n t i o n f rom t h o s e o f a l o n g er ra ng e n a t u r e t h a t co u ldbe approached m o r e s lowly .

The ob se rv at io ns and recommendations cont ain ed i nt h e f o l l o w i n g s e c t i o n s a r e b as e d on t h e P a n e l re v ie w sa n d d e l i b e r a t i o n s . It shou ld be emp h as i zed t h a t t h erecommendations d e a l wi th t h e major problems, on . thea s su m p ti o n t h a t i f t h e ma jo r p roblem s a r e r e s o l v e d t h erema i n i n g p i e ces can be f i t t e d i n t o p l a c e .RECOMMENDED PRINCIPLES

C e r t a i n p r i n c i p l e s w e r e developed which un de r l iethe program recommendations. It i s recommended t h a tthese p r i n c i p l e s be accep t ed i n the development of th eNational Weather Modif icat ion Program. It i s i n t e n d e dt h a t t h e p r i n c i p l e s a p pl y t o a l l a ge nc ie s in vo lv ed i nw ea th er m o d if ic a t i on a c t i v i t i e s , and n o t j u s t t o t h os ewhose programs are d i s c u s s e d i n d e t a i l i n t h i s r e p o r t ,The p r i n c i p l e s a r e :

1.

2.

3 .

There i s s u f f i c i e n t p o t e n t i a l pa yo ff i n d i ca t e db y t h e r e s u l t s o f p a s t r e se a rc h t o j u s t i f yc o n t in u i n g b a s i c and a p p l i e d r e s e a r c h i n th earea of weather modi f i ca t ion .The p o t e n t i a l d o l l a r s av in gs i n l e s se n i n g thed e s t r u c t i v e e f f e c t s of weather , and the po ten-t i a l g a i n s i n e nh an cin g t h e b e n e f i c i a l e f f e c t s ,a r e so g r e a t t h a t e xp e n di tu r es of a p p r e c ia b l ed o l l a r s on w ea th e r mo d i f i ca t i o n r e s ea r ch anda p p l i c a t i o n c a n be j u s t i f i e d .There i s a need for a s i ng le agency t o assumer e s p o n s i b i l i t y f o r t ak i n g the l e a d i n d ev e l o p i n ga wel l- rounded na t i on al program of r e s ea rch o n


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d o e v e r y t h i n g i t s e l f f o r e ve ry bo dy : r a t h e r , its ho u ld b u i l d j u d i c io u s l y upon t h e a c t i v i t i e s ,c a p a b i l i t i e s , a nd 'm is si on r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s oft h e v a r i o u s p a r t i c i p a t i n g a g en c ie s .

8. A formal procedure must be developed t o a c h i e v ec o n t i n u i ng v i s i b i l i t y and c o o r d i n a t io n of t h et o t a l w eather mo d i f i ca t i o n program.9: There must be r e g u l a t io n a nd c o n t r o l of weatherm o d if ic a ti on a c t i v i t i e s , e s p e c i a l l y a s t h o s e

a c t i v i t i e s i n cr ea se i n magni tude and frequencyand become i n t e r n a t i o n a l i n s co pe . This i sr e q u i r e d e s p e c i a l l y t o p ro vi de a mechanism f o rp r o t e c t i o n a g a i n s t ha rm f ul c on se qu en ce s ofweather m o d if ic a ti on a c t i v i t y b u t a l s e tep e r m i t v a l i d e x p e ri m e n ta t io n .

OBSERVATIONS

I found t h a t the b ud ge t f i g u r e s i n t h e I C A S s e l e c tPan e l Rep o r t d i d n o t r e f l e c t th e c u r r e n t s t a t u s o fagency p rogram a n a ly s i s and p lann ing .of growth i n th e s e l e c t P a n e l Report w e r e u n r e a l i s t i c a l l yh i g h , i n s o m e cases b y a f ac t o r of t w o o r more.

I n d i c a t e d r a t e s


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A s w e l l as I co u l d d e t e rmi n e , t h e v a r i o u s a g e n c i e sa r e c o un ti ng i n la rg e measure on us in g the same peoplea t v ar io us c o n t r a c t o rs and u n i v e r s i t i e s t o h e l p c a r r yout the p lanned programs. ESSA a p p e a r s t o ha ve t h ek i n d and q u a n t i t i e s o f p e op le r e q u i r e d t o mount avigorous program i n w ea th er m o d i f i c a t i o n r e s e a r c h , b u tt h e a b i l i t y t o b u i l d up program a c t i v i t y a t a n yt hi ng l i k eth e proposed r a t e s would depend upon whether t he se peop leca n a c t u a l l y b e r e a s si g n e d f rom t h e i r p r e s e n t d u t i e s .I n g e n e r a l t h e r e was a l a r g e d i s p a r i t y b etw ee n p r o j e c t e dmanpower a v a i l a b i l i t i e s a nd r e q u i r e m e n t s. T h i s s e r v e s t oemphasize th a t p roposed r a t e s of p rogram growth a r ei nd ee d t o o h i g h , and a l s o t h a t a vi g or o u s e f f o r t s ho u ldb e made t o i n c r e a s e t h e t o t a l n a t i o n a l com pe tenc e i n t h ew ea t h e r mo d i f i ca t i o n f i e l d .

There a r e a f e w a r e a s o f s u f f i c i e n t i mm ed ia te p ro m is et o war ran t moving ahead on exp er im enta l ope ra t io na l pro-grams. One i s t h e s e ed i n g o f o ro g rap h i c c l o u d s i n wes terna r e a s t o augment wa te r p r e c i p i t a t i o n f o r i n c r e a s i n g w a te rsupply. Another i s t h e s eed i n g of d ry , s h a l l o w s t ormsi n t h e Rocky Mou nta in r eg i o n s f o r s u p p res s i o n o f t h ek i n d of l i gh t n in g t h a t c a us es f o r e s t f i r e s . I n o t h e ra r e a s it a p pe a rs t o o e a r l y a t t h e p r e s e n t t im e t o un de r-t a k e o p e r a t i o n a l a p p l i c a t i o n s o f w e at he r m o d i f i c a t i o n .What is needed a t t h e p r e s e n t t i m e and f o r the immediatef u t u r e i s a pro gram of r e s ea rch , i n c l u d i n g some f i e l dp ro grams, d i r e c t ed t o w ard u n d e r s t an d i n g t h e p h y s i c s an ddynamics of w e at he r s ys te m s t o p r o v i d e a s c i e n t i f i cb a s i s f o r f u r t h e r e x p e r i m e n t a t i o n i n w ea t h e r mo d i f i ca t i o n .


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I n g e n e r a l , t h e p ro p os e d program c o n t e n t f o r allf o u r age nc ie s appea r s sound , be ing based on as ses smen t s o fp o t e n t i a l p r a c t i c a l r e t u r n s , o r on a r ec ogn i t i o n of t h en ee d f o r r e s e a r c h . E xc ep t f o r q u e s t i o n s o f u n d e s i r a b l ed u p l i c a t i o n , my c r i t i c i s m l i e s n o t i n t he s u b j e c t con-t e n t o f p ro po se d p ro gra ms , b u t r a t h e r i n t h e a r e a s o fprogram phas ing , p roposed r a t e s of growth, and t h ev a l i d i t y of d o l l a r es t imates .


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PROGRAM THRUST, ASSESSMENT, AND RECOMMENDATIONSMajor Th ru st of Proqram

I t i s recommended t h a t th e major t h r u s t o f th eNa t ion a l Program i n Weather M o d i f i c a t i o n f o r t h eimmedia te fu tu re be i n th e d i r e c t i o n o f u nd er-s ta nd ing th e phys ics and dynamics of wea thers ys te m s t o p r o v i d e a sound b a s i s fo r ex p er imen ta -t i o n i n and a p p l i c a t i o n o f w e at he r m o d i fi c a t io n .T h i s w i l l r e q u i r e programs of f i e l d e x p e r i m e n t a -t i o n t o e xt en d and a p p l y t h e r e s u l t s o f l a b o r a t o r ya n d t h e o r e t i c a l re sea rch .

Budqet1 . I t i s recommended t h a t t h e a g e n c i e s p a r t i c i -p a t i n g i n th e weather modi f ica t ion p rogramg i ve e a r l y a t t e n t i o n t o t h e development ofv a l i d b ud ge t f i g u r e s , w i t h p a r t i c u l a r a t t e n -t i o n t o r e a l i s t i c r a t e s of growth , a n d v a l i de s t i m a t e s of man p o w er av a i l ab i l i t y .2 . While I recommend a vigorous Nat iona l Program

of Weather Modif icat ion , I f e e l t h a t t h e s i z ep r o j e c t e d f o r FY 1 9 7 0 , i n c l u d i n g ma j o rf a c i l i t i e s , m ight r ea so n ab ly be l i t t l e moret h an h a l f of t h a t g i ve n i n t h e ICAS SelectPane l Repor t .Because th e v a r i o u s a g e n c i e s w e r e u na bl e t o p r o v id ef ir m b u dg e t e s t i m a t e s , I w a s i n no p o s i t i o n t o d ev e l o p

a d e f i n i t i v e b u dg et . I have , however , p lo t t ed s o m et r e n ds i n F ig . 2 of App. V I w h i c h q u a n t i t a t e i n a roughway my recommendations r e l a t i v e t o th e s p e c i f i c agencyprograms. The number3 used w e r e a r r i v e d a t f rom d i s -c u s s i o n s w i t h t h e agenc ies and among our se lv es . Thenumbers may w e l l h av e t o be c h a n g e d a f t e r t h e a g e n c i e shave completed t h e i r a n a l y s e s of a c t u a l r e q u i r e m e n t s :


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i n t h e m e a n ti m e , t h e s e may be t a k e n a s i n d i c a t i n g myj u d g m e n t a s t o r e a s o n a b l e orders o f m a g n i t u d e .D e p a r t m e n t o f A q r i c u l t u r e P r o q r a m

I b e l i e v e t h a t a weather m o d i f i c a t i o n program o fa b o u t $600K i n FY 1967 ' g ro win g t o $7M i n FY 1 9 7 0 i sj u s t i f i a b l e . About h a l f o f t h e FY 1 97 0 f i g u r e i s f o rf a c i l i t i e s , i n c l u d i n g p u r c h a s e a n d o p e r a t i o n o f s m a l la i r c r a f t a n d a much n ee d ed r e s e a r c h l a b o r a t o r y .r e s e a r c h y e t t o be d o n e shows a m i s s i o n - o r i e n t e d programi n h a i l s u p p r e s s i o n t o be w a r r a n t e d , t h e FY 1970 f i g u r ec o u l d be l a r g e r .

I f

T he D ep a rt m en t o f A g r i c u l t u r e program, p ro j ec t edt h r o u g h FY 1 9 7 0 , c a n be c o n s i d e re d i n t e r m s cf two na j c rca t ego r i e s :

1. D i r e c t m o d i f i c a t i o n o f weather2. E c o l o g i c a l a n d s u p p o r t i n g r esearch

T h e s e r e l a t e i n th e main t o t h e s u p p r e s s i o n o f s p e c i f i ch a r m f u l e f f e c t s o f weather phenomena, and a s t u d y o ft h e e f f e c t s o f weather m o d i f i c a t i o n u po n f a r m a n d f o r e s tc rops a n d o n l a n d m an ag em e nt i n g e n e r a l .

The d i r e c t w e a t h er m o d i f i c a t i o n p o r t i o n o f t h eprogram i n c l u d e s p r i m a r i l y a n ex pan de d l i g h t n i n g s u p pr e s -s i o n e f f o r t a nd a new e f f o r t d i r e c t e d t o wa rd h a i l s u p -p r e s s i o n , t h e D ep ar tm en t s t a t e s : " P r o j e c t S k y f i r e oft h e U . S . F o r e s t Service i s p e r f o r m i n g a n a c t i v e researchprogram a i m e d a t s u p p r e s s i o n o f l i g h t n i n g w h i c h c a u s e ssome 1 0 ,0 0 0 f o r e s t f i r e s a n n u a l l y i n t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s .A f i e l d e x p e r im e n t i s t e s t i n g t h e e f f e c t s o f v e r y h ea vys e e d i n g w i t h s i l v e r i o d i d e o n l i g h t n i n g s to rms . Ther e s u l t s t o d a t e s h o w a 32 p e r c e n t r e d u c t i o n i n c l o u d -t o - gr o u nd l i g h t n i n g f ro m s e e de d s to r ms . A s p e c i a l l yi n s t r u m e n t e d f i e l d area u t i l i z i n g t h r e e r a d a r s a n d an e t w o r k of l i g h t n i n g s e n s o r s t a t i o n s i s u s ed f o r t h e


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cloud seeding experiments and for studies of lightningcharacteristics. The type of lightning discharge mostlikely to ignite forest fires has been identified.High output airborne and ground based silver iodidegenerators have been developed. Utilizing data fromthe experimental area and a network of lightning surveystations, physical and mathematical models of mountainthunderstorms are being developed. I*

Project Skyfire is providing the basis for achiev-ing a significant reduction in lightning damage in theforest areas of the western United States, which is ofappreciable benefit to the country. The objectives ofSkyfire clearly fall within the mission responsibilitiesof the U . S . Forest Service, which should continue to beresponsible for the project.

The present program has been underway for overten years. From the data presented to the Panel, itappears that this effort has been underfunded in rela-tion to its potential value to the agency's mission,and to the Nation. I recommend, and regard as minimal,the following effort proposed by Agriculture:

1. Expanded lightning investigations at theMissoula Experimental site and at the NorthernForest Fire Laboratory.

2 . Performance of larger scale seeding experi-ments in two well instrumented experimentalareas in the National Forests of the NorthernRockies. A capability should be developed,by strengthening research resources alreadyavailable, to operate these experimentalareas either separately or simultaneously.

* United States Department of Agriculture, Summary ofWeather Modification Research Program presented onJune 2 8 , 1966.


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i n t e r e s t i n h a i l s u p p r e s s i o n .w e r e submi t ted , however , t o j u s t i f y u nd e rt a ki n g a la rge-sc a l e p rogram a t t h i s t i m e .a re inadequate f o r d e f i n i n g a v a l i d program t o a p p l yh a i l s u p p r e s s i o n t e c h n i q u e s t o s uc h a p p l i c a t i o n s asc r o p p r o t e c t i o n .

N o s c i e n t i f i c d e t a i l sS c i e n t i f i c r e s u l t s t o da t e

I recommend ag a i n s t th e expans ion of A g r i c u l t u r e ' sh a i l s u p p r e s s i o n e f f o r t s beyond a m o d e s t e f f o r t f o r t h et i m e b e i n g . I recommend t h a t t h e Environmental Scie nc eS e r v i c e s A d m i n i s t r a t i o n , i n c lose c o o p e r a t i o n w i t h theD e p a r t m e n t of A g r i c u l t u r e , take th e lead i n t h e d ev el op -ment and conduct of a program t o u n d e r s t a n d t h e bas icphys ics o f ha i l - p r oduc ing s to r ms , and of h a i l - s u p p r e s s i o nmechanisms. I recommend t h a t , as th e n ec e ss ar y s c i e n t i f i cr a t i o n a l e i s developed , t h e Depar tment of A g r i c u l t u r e t aket h e l e a d i n c o n d uc t in g large-scale f i e l d e x p e r i m e n t s i nh a i l su pp re ss io n, p a r t i c u l a r l y i n t h e we st ern p l a i n s areaw h e r e h a i l damage t o a g r i c u l t u r e i s m o s t seve r e . Shou ldt h i s become a c h i e v a b l e i n t h e 1970 t i m e p e r i o d , th e t o t a lDepartment of A g r i c u l t u r e w e a th e r m o d i f i c a t i o n b u d g e t f o rFY 1970 would have t o be l a rger t h a n t h e $7M i n d i c a t e de a r l i e r.

The e c o l o g i c a l and s u p p o r t i n g research p o r t i o n oft h e p rogram inc lud es three areas: b i o l o g i c a l r e s p o n s e st o w eathe r m od i f i c a t i on , boundar y -l aye r ene r gy exchange ,and remo te s e ns in g i n sup po r t of weather m o d i f i c a t i o n .A t p r e s e n t , there i s l i t t l e w o r k unde r way i n th e f i r s ta r e a , and o n l y modest, e a r l y e f f o r t s e x i s t i n t h e l a s tt w o .

I f e e l t h a t A g r i c u l t u r e ' s e x p e ri e n ce a nd in -ho usec a p a b i l i t i e s i n s uc h areas a s eco logy , boundary- layerenergy exchange, and bas ic research i n s u pp o rt of t h e i re x c e l l e n t l i g h t n i n g s u p p r e s s i o n prog ra m r e q u i r e augm enta-t i o n . T h e s e e f f o r t s a re p e r t i n e n t t o a program of weatherm o d i fi c a ti o n r e s e a r c h a nd a p p l i c a t i o n , a nd a re otherwisep a r t of t h e A g r i c u l t u r e m i s s io n . I n some r e g a r d s , however,I do have concern. F i e l d o b s e r v a t i o n s r e l a t e d t o changes


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i n spec i e s b r o u g h t a b o u t t h r o u gh w eathe r m o d i f i c a t i o n , f o re x a m p l e , i n v o l v e cons ide rab le u n c e r t a i n t i e s r e l a t i v e t ot h e s p e c i f i c r e s u l t s of w e a t he r m o d i f i c a t i o n . It i s v e r yi m p o r t a n t , t he r e f or e , t o e s t a b l i s h e a r l y t h e n e c e s s a r yb a s e l i n e da t a f o r l a t e r c o m p a ri s o n s an d a n a l y s e s .S i m i l a r l y , a p ro gra m i n b ou nd ar y l a y e r e f f e c t s g e n e r a t e dt h r o u g h w e a t h er m o d i f i c a t i o n m ust d e a l w i t h d i f f i c u l t i e sof e s t a b l i s h i n g f i r m l y a t r u e c a us e -a n d- e ff e c t r e l a t i o n -s h i p .

I c o nc l ud e t h a t t h e b u d g e t s u b m i s s i o n b y A g r i c u l -t u r e f o r research i n t h e e c o l o g i c a l a nd s u p p o r t i n g researchp o r t i o n s of t h e program i s i n e x c e s s of th e presen tc a p a b i l i t y .these f u n d a m e n t a l areas i s d e s i r a b l e a nd s h o u l d bes u p p o r t e d .

N e v e r t h e l e s s , I f e e l t h a t growth i n

D e p a r t m e n t of I n t e r i o r ProqramI recommend a D ep ar tm en t of I n t e r i o r b ud g e t f o r

w ea th e r m o d i f i c a t io n a c t i v i t i e s of a b o u t $3M i n FY 1967g r o w i n g t o a b o u t $35M i n FY 1 97 0, i n c l u d i n g n ee de df a c i l i t i e s an d o p e r a t i o n . The main t h r u s t of I n t e r i o r ' sp r o g r a m i s i n t h e area of p r e c i p i t a t i o n au g me n ta t io n .The D e p a r t m e n t of I n t e r i o r has b ee n a s s i g n e d n a t i o n a lw a t e r r e s o u r c e management r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s , a nd t h u s a ne f f o r t i n t h e e x p l o i t a t i o n a nd u t i l i z a t i o n of t h e w a t e rr e s o u r c e is c l e a r l y a n I n t e r i o r m i s s i o n a nd i s i n t h en a t i o n a l i n t e r e s t .

The s i n g u l a r o b j e c t i v e of I n t e r i o r ' s A t m o s p h e r i cWater R e s o u r c e s P r o g r a m has b e e n t o a s c e r t a i n t h e t e c h n i -c a l a n d econom ic f e a s i b i l i t y of i n c r e a s i n g th e w a t e rs u p p l y f o r B u r e a u of R e cl a ma t io n p r o j e c t s t h r o u g hw e a th e r m o d i f i c a t i o n . Research r e s u l t s t o d a t e s h o ws u f f i c i e n t promise t h a t t h e p ro gra m h a s b e e n r e o r i e n t e dt o r e f l e c t t h e e v e n t u a l goa l of t h e "e f f ec t i ve ,


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b e n e f i c ia l u t i l i z a t i o n of t h e n a t i o n ' s a t m o s p h e r i cw a t e r r e s o u r c e s . ' I *T h e program t o g a t e h a s in c lu d e d, a p p r o p r i a t e l y ,c l o u d - s e e d i n g e f f o r t s , research i n v o l v i n g th e a c q u i s i -t i o n of f i e l d d a t a i n a l l th e ex p e r i men t a l a re a s , andcl imato logy .I n t e r i o r ' s program h a s c o n c e n t r a t e d on a number off i e l d e x p er im e nt s i n t h e w e s t e r n s t a t e s . A program a tt h e U n i v e r s i t y of Wyoming devoted to t h e s t ud y of capclo uds ha s produced amounts of w a t e r which ap p ea r too f f e r promise o f econom ic s i g n i f i c a n c e . I n t e r i o r ' s

Basin program ranges f r o m t h e o r e t i c a l s t u d i e s of c l o u dp h y si c s t o a c t u a l m o d i f i c a ti o n o p e r a t i o n s , an d i n c l u d e st h e d ev el op men t o f i n s t ru m en t a t i o n an d d a t a acq u i s i t i o nsystems.

The Southern S i e r r a p ro gram h as s t u d i ed t h e ef fec -t i v e n e s s o f c l o u d s e e d i n g i n t h a t s p e c i a l i z e d a r e a .The P ac i f i c N o r th w es t p ro gram h a s i n c l u d ed ex p e r i men tson s h i f t i n g p r e c i p i t a t i o n from a r ea s o f s u r p l u s t oa r e a s o f d e f i c i t .

I n Washington and Oregon th e windward slopes ofc o a s t a l m ou nta in s r e c e i v e l a r g e amo un ts o f p r ec i p i t a -t i o n , t h e run -o ff o f w h i c h r e t u r n s t o t h e ocean unused.F a r t h e r i n la n d , t h e r e a r e a r e a s w here t h e p r e c i p i t a t i o ni s l e s s t h a n one t e n t h a s g r e a t . I f it w e r e p o s s i b l et o s h i f t some of t h e l o s t p r e c i p i t a t i o n , t h e economicb en e f i t w o u l d be g r e a t .

The r e s e a r c h p rogram s u b m i tt e d b y I n t e r i o r t o ICASr e f l e c t s q u i t e w e l l a l l a r e a s o f s t u d y t h a t w i l l ber e q u i r e d t o s u p p o rt p ro po se d i n t e n s i v e f i e l d e xp e ri m en ts* Pla ns f o r t h e D epartm ent o f I n t e r i o r ' s A tm o sp he ri cWater Resources Program, pr es en te d t o ICAS on May 1 3 ,1966.


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i n p r e c i p i t a t i o n a u g m e n t a t i o n s u c h a s those ment ionedabove. I conclude tha t the p rogram i s s o u n d l y b as ed ,is b e i n g c o m p e t e n t l y c a r r i e d o u t , i s of b e n e f i t t o t h ecoun t ry , and shou ld be co n t i n u ed . I f e e l t h a t t h ep r o p o s e d r a t e s of g ro wth ex ceed In t e r i o r ' s in -h ou seand p o t e n t i a l c o n t r a c t o r c a p a b i l i t y a nd I recommend t h el o w e r r a t e of growth for t h i s r e s e a r c h area cor respond-i n g t o t h e b u d ge t f i g u r e s g iv e n above.

T h e s u p p o r t i n g b ud g et m a t e r i a l s u b m i t t e d t o t h eP a n e l d i s c u s s e d t h e establ ishment of f i e l d l a bo r a to r ie sw hich would i n c lu d e t h e f o l lo w i n g n e c e s sa r y f a c i l i t i e s :r a d a r and ra win so nd e i n s t a l l a t i o n s , b a l lo o n i n f l a t i o ns h e l t e r s , r e p a i r s ho p s, a i r p o r t s , te mp ora ry h ou si ng ,e t c . I f e e l t h a t t h e e s t a b li s h m e n t of a n e x t e n s i v e~ e t s -m r k f such field s t a t i o n s i s a p p r o p r i a t e t e c h n i c a l l yand e v e n t u a l l y s h o u l d be accompl ished wi th in t h e Depart -ment of I n t e r i o r ' s m i ss io n. I estimate t h a t n o t more t h ant e n f i e l d s i t e s a r e c o n s i s t e n t w i t h t h e apparen t po ten-t i a l i t i e s o f t h e Department-of I n t e r i o r th rough t h eF Y 1 9 7 0 t i m e per iod . The c o s t per f i e l d s i t e a s deducedf ro m t h e ma t e r i a l p ro v i d ed b y I n t e r i o r i s ap p ro x i ma t e l y2% m i l l i o n d o l l a r s i n c l u d i n g s u c h e q u i p m e n t i t e m s a sw ea t h e r r ad a r , r aw i n s o n d es , t e l eme t ry s e t s , t r a c e rd i s p e n s e r s , a n d a t o t a l of a b o u t e i g h t t w i n e n g in e a i r -c r a f t f o r t h e t e n f i e l d s i t e s . This equipment i sr e p r e s e n t a t i v e of t h e p ro po se d s i t e implementat ion s e tf o r t h i n t h e m a t e r i a l s u p p l i e d b y I n t e r i o r .

I recommend t h a t In t e r i o r co l l a b o r a t e w i t h ESSA i na cc om pl is hi ng I n t e r i o r ' s m i s s i o n of augmenting pr ec ip i t a -t i o n i n t h e e a s t e r n o r n o rt h e a st e r n s e c t o r o f the co u n t ry .I b e l i ev e t h a t t h e r e a re s i g n i f i c a n t ad va nt ag es t oI n t e r i o r ' s d ev el op in g a f i r m , c l e a r l y d e f i n e d a gre em en tw i t h ESSA t o a cc om plis h t h i s c o l l a b o r a t i v e e f f o r t . Suchan a r rangem ent would sp read th e base of the government ' se x p e r i e n c e i n t h i s f i e l d . It would permit ESSA t oi n t e g r a t e t h e p r e c i p i t a t i o n a u g m e n t a t i o n a c t i v i t y w i t ha b ro ade r p rogram of r ese ar ch on t h e p h y s i c s and


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dynamics of weather mo di f i c a t ion and w i th w ea the rr e s e a r c h i n g e n e r a l . A l s o , it would p r o v i d e I n t e r i o rw i t h v a lu a b le a s s i s t a n c e i n i t s i m p o r t a n t w a t e r 'resources program. I f such a c o l l a b o r a t i o n w i th ESSAi s a r r a n g e d , E S S A ' s a s s i s t a n c e may p e r m i t a c c e l e r a t i o nof the p r e c ip i t a t i o n augmen ta t ion p rogr am, w hich i nt u r n would r e q u i r e e a r l i e r i n c re a s e s i n t h e I n t e r i o rbudget t h a n a r e i n d i c a t e d i n th e c urv e of App. V I .

The c o l l a b o ra t i o n recommended above i s one exampleof how t w o a g e n c i e s may p r o f i t a b l y work t o g e t h e r t oa ch ie ve t h e i r r e s p e c t i v e g o al s . It may be e x pe c te d t h a tmany s uc h o p p o r t u n i t i e s w i l l a r i s e i n t h e w e a t h e rm o d i f i c a t i o n p ro gr am , a nd f u l l a d va n t a ge s h o u l d be t a k e nof thos e op po r t un i t ie s . The development and o p e r a t i o n o fa l a r g e - s c a l e weather s im u la t i on f a c i l i t y w i l l b e n e f i tfrom m u l ti a g en c y c o l l a b o r a t i o n i n i t s d e s i g n and u s e .Although I recommend below t h a t ESSA be the pr ime moveri n the a r e a of s e v e r e s t o r m m o d i f i c a t i o n , it i s r e c o g n i z e dt h a t I n t e r i o r and A g r i c u l t u r e h av e a n u l t i m a te i n t e r e s the re , and one can foresee t h e p o s s i b i l i t y of c o l l a b o r a t i v ee f f o r t s among ESSA, I n t e r i o r , a nd A g r i cu l t ur e .

Li k e t h e Depar tment o f Agr icu l tu re , t h e Department ofI n t e r i o r h a s an i n t e r e s t i n and concern w i t h t h e e c o l o g i c a le f f e c t s o f weather m o d i f i c a t i o n . I n p lann ing f o r p rogr amsi n a t m os p he r ic w a t e r r e s o u r c e s , t h e De pa rt me nt i s i n c l u d -i n g p r o vi s io n f o r a p p r o p r ia t e s t u d i e s i n this a r e a .ESSA Proqram

I recommend a weather m o d i f i c a t i o n b u d g e t f o r ESSAof abou t $1.5M i n FY 1967, r i s i n g t o a b ou t $25M i nFY 1970. I s u p p o r t t h e p ro gra m c o n t e n t , b u t q u e s t i o nt h e p r o p os e d r a t e of grow th t o $20M i n FY 1968. WhileESSA d e m on s tr at e d t h e n e c e s sa r y d i v e r s i t y of in-houset a l e n t , I a m u n a b le t o j u dg e w h et he r ESSA i s a b l e t or e a s s i g n a l l t h e n ee de d p e r s o n n e l f ro m o t h e r a r e a s t ot h e w e at he r m o d if i c at i on e f f o r t .


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The proposed ESSA program is a broad research anddevelopment effort of significant magnitude and content.It covers the many areas that must be understood toattack and solve the problem of attaining beneficialweather control. The following technical areas, froma list provided by ESSA, illustrate the breadth of theproposed effort: cloud physics; atmospheric electricity;statistical design and evaluation; hurricane structureand modification; severe local storm structure; atmos-pheric contamination; inadvertent modification; computermodeling; global cloud analysis, primarily satellitework; drought and climatic variations: atmosphereradiation and heat balance; sea/air interaction;transport and diffusion plume tracing; specializedinstrument development: hydrometeorology; socio-economics and ecology.

I believe that a broad research and developmenteffort of the general content of the proposed ESSAprogram is essential to a significant national weathermodification effort. I recommend that ESSA have theresponsibility for the research and development thatis essential to a viable national weather modificationprogram, supplementing and integrating the researchprograms of the mission-oriented agencies. But, Irecommend that ESSA not duplicate the programs of themission-oriented agencies discussed above, and thebasic research programs of NSF discussed below. Istrongly support the ESSA mission responsibility inareas such as severe storm suppression, hurricanemodification, and large-scale long-range atmosphericmodeling.

The following areas are considered essential forestablishing the broad base of research necessary forthe national weather modification effort.tions given below were extracted from the materialprovided by ESSA . The recommended funding permitsinclusion of these activities in the ESSA program.

The descrip-


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1. Mo d i f i ca t i o n of Winter Lake Storms: Theses to rms form i n e a r l y w i n t e r when s h a l l o w c o n t i n e n t a lc o l d a i r b l o w s a c r o s s th e u n f r o z e n l a k e s , p i c k i n g upmo is tu re from t h e warm water su r fac e . The l o c a lc h a r a c t e r of t h e s torm would per m it ove r-see ding andr e d i s t r i b u t i o n of t h e p r e c i p i t a t i o n .

' 2. M o d i f ic a t io n of C o l l o i d a l S t a b i l i t y : A nat tempt would be made t o s ee d t r o p i c a l m a r i t i m e c l o u d sw i th c o n d e ns a ti o n n u c l e i i n o r d e r t o i n c re a s e t h e i rc o l l o i d a l s t a b i l i t y and t o pr ev en t r a i n . T hi s a c t i v i t ymay e n te r a semi - ope ra t ion a l s t a t e d u r i n g FY 1972.3 . A q I D i f fu s i o n : T h i s p r o j e c t s u p p l e m e n t s th e

r e s ea rch u n d e r i t e m 1 above. It i s b e l ie v e d t h a t th ev e r t i c a l d i f f u s i o n of AgI c an be s t u d i e d i n t h e w i n t eri n th e G r e a t Lakes Region dur ing p res enc e of ex tendeds u p e rco o l ed c l o u d l ay e r s . AgI w i l l be g e n e r a t e d i ng r e a t c o n c e n t r a t i o n s a t t h e s u r fa c e . The a n a l y s i s ofi t s e f f e c t on t h e c l o u d d eck w i l l be done by radar .

4 . Cumulus D y n a m i c s : T h i s i s p a r t of P r o j e c tStorm Fury. It i n v o l v es th e con t inued s t ud y o f cumulusdynamics by means of the re lease of hea t of fus iont h ro u g h s eed i n g w i t h p y ro t ech n i c s . A two-year cy cl e ofra nd om iz ed f i e l d e x p e r i m e n t a t i o n i s f o r e s e e n i n t h eBarbados I s l a n d a r ea , w h ich p e rmi t s s t u d y o f b o t hm a r i t i m e a nd c o n t i n e n t a l c l o u d s.

5. H a i l Su p p res s i on : Sev e ra l ap p ro ach es a recontemplated: ( a ) a f i e l d p r o j e c t t o s tu dy h a i ls t o n es t r u c t u r e t o d e t e r m i n e where i n t h e c l o u d th e h a i l s t o n eo r i g i n a t e d , (b) a i r b o r n e s t u d i e s of h a i l s t o r m s t oa s s e s s t h e r e l a t i v e s i g n i f i c a n c e o f m o th er cl ou d anda n v i l i n t h e h a i l p ro ces s , an d (c ) r a d a r s t u d i e s t oa n a l y z e f u r t h e r t h e " an atom y" of t h e h a i l s t o r m .

A r e a s of a c t i v i t y w i l l be Norman, Oklahoma;Bo ul de r, Co lo rad o: an d F l a g s t a f f , A r i zo n a.


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8. L ab o ra t o ry S t u d i e s : A number of in-house s t u d i e sa re planned:( a ) C o n s t r u ct i o n o f a f l u i d m o d e l f o r t h e s t u d yof i n f l u x c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s i n t o t o r n a d ic s to rm s.(b) N u c l e a t i o n s t u d i e g : S t u d i e s are planned

t o l ea rn more a b o u t the a c t i o n of s i l v e r i o d id e a s af r e e z i n g o r a s a s u b l i ma t i o n n u c l eu s , and ab o u t i t sa g in g u nd er i r r a d i a t i o n b y t h e s un .s t u d i e s , v a r i o u s o t h e r n u c l e a t i n g a g e n t s , s uc h a s l e a do x i d e , w i l l be i n v es t i g a t ed . T h i s may lead t o t h e d is co v er yof l e s s expens ive ma te r i a l s w i t h a d i s p e r s a b i l i t y e q u i va l en tt o Ag I, and u s a b l e i n p y r ot e c h n ic d i s p e n s e r s .

I n a d d i t i o n t o these

9. Water Budget of Storms: L i t t l e i s known of th ew a t e r budget of e x t r a t r o p i c a l storms.E l l i o t t , and A t l a s , a nd b y Wexler i n d i c a t e t h a t w a t e rs to rage o c c ur s i n s u c h storms and t h a t t h e r e f o r e c h a n c e sof r a i n a ug m e nt at io n e x i s t .however are miss ing . The same i s t r u e of c o n v e c t i v es torms.an an a l y s i s ex i s t (by Braham), w h i l e th e w a t e r b u d g e to f h a i l s t o r m s o r t o r n a d o s i s unknown. One a n a l y s i s oft h e i n f l u x of a i r i n t o these s torms gave values of moret h an 100 cu b i c k i l o m e t e r s in one minu te .

Analyses by Bradbury,

S y s t e m a t i c i n v e s t i g a t i o n sO nly f o r t h e case of a i r m a s s thunders to rms does

P l a n s c a l l f o r a d i v e r s i f i e d a pp ro ac h. I n t h ei n i t i a l phase t h e t o t a l p r e c i p i t a b l e w a t e r w i l l be s t u d i e du s i n g a n e t w o r k o f e x i s t i n g U . S . w ea t h e r i n s t ru men t s .T h i s s t u d y w i l l be d es ig ne d t o f u r n i s h th e i n f l u x o fv ap o r ac ro s s t h e s h o r e s o f th e Gulf of Mexico f o r c e r t a i nw ea th er s i t u a t i o n s , o r f r o m t h e G ulf of C a l i f o r n i a , f o ri n s ta n c e , f o r t h e s h o r t p e ri o d of th e summer monsoonwhich i s s o imp or tan t t o Ar izona . The second phasec a l l s f o r a m e t e o r o l o g i c a n a l y t i c s t u d y of t h e w a t e rbudget of s t o rms , s up pl em e nt ed b y a i r c r a f t a nd r a d i o s on d en e t w o r k d a t a c o l l e c t i o n .


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s e c t i o n on I n t e r i o r , I p ro po se t h a t I n t e r i o r c o l l a b o r a tew i t h ESSA on a l a rg e - sc a le f i e l d program i n p r e c i p i t a t i o na ug m en ta ti on i n t h e e a s t e r n o r n o r t h e a s t e r n s e c t i o n i nkeep ing wi th t h e c o n c e p t t h a t t h e Department of I n t e r i o rh a s m i ss io n r e s p o n s i b i l i t y i n water resources enhancementwhi le ESSA shou ld conduct a b roa d program of e xp lo ra to ryr e s e a r c h i n t o t h e p o t e n t i a l s and s c i e n t i f i c bases f o rw ea th e r mo d i f i ca t i o n . A v e r y i m p o rt a nt r e as o n t h a t ESSAunde rtake t h i s work wi th I n t e r i o r under a memorandum ofu n d e r s t an d i n g i s so t h a t ESSA may i n t e g r a t e t h i s a c t i v i t yw i t h t h e i r b r o a d e r program of r e s e a r c h on t h e p h y s i c s a n ddynamics of weather,

The ESSA o n g o i n g e f f o r t s i n s ev e re s t o rms andh u r r i c a n e r e s e a r c h , a n d th e development and use of theNorman, O k l a h o m a , f a c i l i t y , s ho uld be augmented a t a b o u tt h e r a t e proposed by ESSA.

The N at i o n a l Sev e re S t o rms L ab o ra t o ry (NSSL) h a s ac om pre he ns iv e o b s e r v a t i o n a l f a c i l i t y u se d t o d e f i n eb e t t e r t h e c o n d i t i o n s which spawn s e v e r e s t o r m s , t h el o c a l c i r c u l a t i o n s which a re th e s to rm, and t h e a s s o c i a t e dbudget s of w a t e r subs ta nce and energy , Dur ing t h eo b s e r v a t i o n a l pe r iod Apri l -June 1966, t h i s i n c l u d edca l i b r a t ed D o pp le r an d co n v en t i o n a l r a d a r s , n e tw o rk s of5 6 s u r f ace weather s t a t i o n s , 1 7 5 r a i n g a g e s , 10 r a d i o -sonde s t a t i o n s pr o vi de d b y t h e U. S. A i r Force and theU. S. Army, and a 1600-foo t ins t ru men ted t e l e v i s i o ntower , c loud cameras, and s e v e r a l i ns tr u m en te d a i r c r a f tof ESSA and USAF. A l i g h t n i n g l o c a t i n g s y s t e m i s underde ve lopm ent a l s o , i n o r d e r t h a t t h e e l e c t r i c a l energyof storms can be c o r r e l a t e d w i t h tornado developmentand the d i s t r i b u t i o n of p r e c i p i t a t i o n r e v e al e d b y r a d a r .

ESSA f e e l s t h a t a more a c c u r a t e d e s c r i p t i o n of t h estorms can be o b ta in e d b y i n t e r p r e t a t i o n o f th e observa-t i o n s i n l i g h t of c o n s t r a i n i n g p r i n c i p l e s of m a s sc o n t i n u i t y and e n e r g y c o n s e r v a t i o n o r co n v e r s i o n ,


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W e can now describe the s t r u c t u r e of am a t u r e h u r r i c a n e i n g r ea t d e t a i l an d ca n eve nes t imate p ro ba bl e v a r i a t i o n s i n t h e s t r u c t u r ew i t h t i m e i n t h e same h u r r i c a n e or betweenh u r r i c a n e s . O u r knowledge of t h e s t r u c t u r eof d e ve lo p in g and d i s s i p a t i n g t r o p i c a lc y c l o n e s i s less comple t e , bu t even i nt h e se ca se s many da t a have been co l l ec t e dand analyzed .G r e a t advances have been made i n r e c e n ty e a r s i n dev elop ing mathem at ica l models ofh u r r i c a n e s . The most advanced of th e s emodels i s now b e i ng u s e d f o r p a r t i a l l ye v a l u a t i n g s im p l e m o d i f ic a t i o n h y p o th e s e s.I n s p i t e of a l l t h e p r o gr e ss t h a t ha s beenmade i n h u r r i c a n e r e s ea r c h i n r e c e n t y e a rs ,much nee ds t o be done b e f o r e we can (1) g a i nan adequate unders tand ing of many d e t a i l s oft h e e n er gy p r oc e s se s i n h u r r i c a n e s , (2) s a t i s -f a c t o r i l y e x p l ai n o r p r e d i c t t h e f or ma ti onand i n t e n s i f i c a t i o n o f t r o p i c a l c y cl on e s, o r( 3 ) d e v e l o p r e a l i s t i c and accu r a t e dynamica l

numer ica l models of h u r r i c a n e s .When w e c a n s i m u l a t e a h u r r i c a n e w i t h a goodnumerical model w e w i l l have accompl ished am ajor b re ak th ro ug h i n t h e e f f o r t s t o f i n d at e c h n i q u e f o r m o di fy in g these s to r ms . Twoof t h e major d e f i c i e n c i e s i n t h e h u rr ic a nemodels c u r r e n t l y b e i n g t e s t e d are t h em a t h e m a t i c a l f o r m u l a t i o n s b o t h f o r th ef r i c t i o n l ay e r a nd f o r the t r a n s f e r ofe n e r g y between t h e e a r t h and the atmospherean d t h ro u g h t h e l ow er l a y e r s of t h e atmos-pher e .of these p r o c e s s e s i s g r e a t l y i m p r o v e d , iti s d o u b t f u l i f w e w i l l be a b l e t o s im u la t ea h u r r i c a n e w i t h a t r u l y s a t i s f a c t o r ynumer ical model .

U n t i l our knowledge and und ers ta nd in g


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A s a n o t e o f ca u t i o n , I f e e l a p o i n t s h ou ld be madeon the complex i ty of t h e p roposed res ear ch . A s i l l u s t r a t e db y c u r r e n t p r o g r e s s w i t h P r o j e c t st o r m F u ry , t h e p ro b a-b i l i t y o f a c q u i r i n g a h u r r i c a n e f o r m o d i f i c a t i o n p urp0se.ca t t h i s t i m e s e e m s t o be a b o u t t h r e e s t o r m s e v e r y t w oy e ar s. I nd ee d, c u r r e n t e f f o r t s h av e y e t t o a c q u i r e t h cf i r s t such s to rm w e l l i n t o t h e s ec on d y e a r of o p e r a t i o n .For h u r r i c a n e s t u d i e s and p o s s i b l e m o d i f i c a t i o n , e x p e n s i vef a c i l i t i e s such a s f l i g h t research a i r c r a f t a re r e q u i r e don a s e a s o n a l b a s i s , w i t h t h e u n d e rs ta n di ng t h a t n a t u r a lv a r ia n c e i n t h e des i r ed w ea th er p a t t e r n p r o h i b i t s ap r e d i c t i o n of how lo ng such re se ar ch must be co n t i n u edb e f or e m e a n in g fu l r e s u l t s c an be expected.

I recommend t h a t t h e p ro p os e d e f f o r t by ESSA i n t h ea r e a s of s e v e r e s t or m a nd h u r r i c a n e r e s e a r c h be s u p p o r t edand p u r s u e d v i g o ro u s l y .N S F Proqram

I recommend an i n c rea s e i n t h e N a t i o n a l Sc i en ceFoundation ( N S F ) w ea t h e r mo d i f i ca t i o n b u d g e t t o a b o u t $ 5Mi n F Y 1967, growing t o $20M i n FY 1970. The F Y 1 9 7 0 f i g u rei n c l u d e s $10M f o r t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n of a l a r g e - s c a l e s im u la -t i o n f a c i l i t y f o r bas i c r e s e a r c h i n c l o ud p h y si c s t o beerected and o p e ra t ed b y t h e N a t i o n a l Cen t e r f o r A t mos p he ri cResearch JNCAR ) , I f p la nn in g f o r t h e f a c i l i t y moves r a p i d l y ,some of t h e $10M might be needed e a r l i e r t h an FY 1970.

The N a t i o n a l Sc i en ce Fo u n da t io n p ro po s es t o i n c r ea s et h e s u p p o r t o f ba s i c and c l o s e l y a s s o c i a t e d a p p l i e d r e s e a r c hwhich i s ap p ro p r i a t e and fu n damen ta l t o an y p ro gram o fw e a t h e r mo d i f i ca t i o n . T h e N S F program should be d i r e c t e dtow ard t h r e e i m p o r t a n t o b j e c t i v e s : (1) t h e e s t a b l i s h m e n to f a sound s c i e n t i f i c f o u nd a t io n f o r an i n t e n s i f i e d progra mo f w ea t h e r mo d i f i ca t i o n , (2) th e s u b s t a n t i a l i n v o l v e m e n t ofu n i v e r s i t i e s i n t h i s area o f r e s e a r c h , a n d ( 3 ) t h e p ro d u c -t i o n o f s u b s t a n t i a l num bers o f new h i g h l y t r a i n e d p e o p l e f o rt h i s work. N S F d oe s n o t p l a n t o a nd " w i l l n o t d u p l i c a te


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i n s tr u m e n t a ti o n i n t h e f i e l d , i n c lo ud chambers o r c l o u dt u n n e l s i n t h e l a b o ra t o r y , o r b y t h e o r e t i c a l c o n s i d e r a t i o n su s i n g ma t h ema t ica l models. T h e c o n t r i b u t i o n o f e l e c t r i c a lf o r c e s t o co a l e s cen ce p ro ces s es w i l l a l s o be s t u d i e d .

4. C l o u d E l e c t r i f i c a t i o n : The mechanism of chargeg e n e r a ti o n i n c l o u ds w i l l be s t u d i e d i n n a t u r a l c lo ud sc o n t a i n i n g e i t h e r s u p e rco o l ed w a t e r o r i ce . T h e e f f e c to f f r e e z i n g of c l o u d d r o p l e t s on the o r i e n t a t i o n a n dl o c a t i o n of c h a rg e c e n t e r s w i l l be o b se rved . The e f f e c to f ch arg e t r an s f e r upon t h e s t ru c t u re and d yn amics oft h e c loud before and a f t e r l i g h t n i n g s t r o k e f o rm a ti on w i l lbe as s es s ed .

5 . Computer A na ly si s: Advances w i l l be made i ncomputer technology i n t h e u n i v e r s i t i e s and a t NCAR t op e rmi t m o r e accura te mathemat ica l model ing o f t h e l a r g es c a l e m o ti on s of t h e e a r t h ' s at mo sp he re l e a d in g t o thee v a l u a t i o n of p o s s i b l e p r a c t i c a l te c h n iq u e s f o r a mored e s i r a b l e d i s t r i b u t i o n of m o i st ur e b e a ri n g a i r massesover d rough t a r eas o r r e g i o n s of p r e c i p i t a t i o n e x c e s s .The accompanying long-term changes i n c l i m a t i c s t r u c t u r ew i l l also be c a r e f u l l y c o n s i d e r e d .

6. Socio-Economic, Leq al , and Ec ol oq ic al Consequencesof Weather and Cl i ma te Mo d i f i ca t i o n : The recommendationsof the N S F S p ec ia l Commission on Weather M od ifi ca t io n t oassess t h e s o c i a l , econom ic, l e g a l and e c o l o g i c a l e f f e c tof weather modi f i ca t ion upon soc ie ty w i l l be t h e o b j e c to f i n t e n s i v e r e s e a r c h i n o r de r t o i s o l a t e and e v a l u a t et h os e c r i t i c a l f a c t o r s which w i l l produce th e mosts i g n i f i c a n t i mp ac t upon s o c i e t y du e t o t h e s u c c e s s f u lap p l i ca t i o n of w ea t he r and c l i m a t e m o d i f i c a t i o n t e c h n i q ue sb y mi s s i o n ag en c i e s .

The u n i v e r s i t y r e s e a r c h i n weather m o d i f ic a t io n t o besuppor ted by NSF p ro v i d es t h e primary mechanism f o r producingt h e numbers of t rained s c i e n t i s t s t h a t t h e t o t a l program w i l lr eq u i r e . E x ces s i v e fu n d i n g f ro m NSF, however, would


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r a d io s o n de b a l l o o n s , smal l - scale l a b o r a t o r y a ndcomputing f a c i l i t i e s , an d i n d i v i d u a l a i r c r a f tshould be c o n t a i n e d i n th e s p e c i f i c miss ionswhere they a re needed.These cons ide ra t ions a re r e f l e c t e d i n my con-c lu si o n s and recommendat ions s e t f o r t h i n th ep r e c e d i n g s e c t i o n s ,2. If a f a c i l i t y i s n o t u s ed f o r o n e s p e c i f i cm i s s i o n , b u t ca n be j u s t i f i e d on a f u l l - t i m euse b a s i s f o r g e n e r a l weather m o d i f i c a t i o npurpose s by one s i n g le agency , t h a t agencyshould e s t a b l i s h and ope ra t e t h e f a c i l i t y .For example: I s u p p o r t t h e e s t a b li s h m e n t a ndo p e r a t i o n of a p p r op r i a t e a i r c r a f t and f a c i l i t i e sb y t h e Depar tmen t o f In t e r i o r t o e x e c u t e t h e i r p r e c i p i -t a t i o n a u gm e nt at io n m i s s io n , I a l s o s u p p o r t t h e u l t i -mate es t abl i sh me nt by ESSA of a g e n e r a l p u rp o se f l e e tof a i r c r a f t f o r u se i n t h a t a g en c y' s d i v e r s i f i e d R&Dand mission programs.3 . I f a f a c i l i t y i s f o r g e n e r a l - p u r p o s e u s e , b u ti s so e x t e n s iv e t h a t f u l l - t i m e u s e c an n ot bej u s t i f i e d b y a s i n g l e a g en c y, t h e n t h e u s e of t h ef a c i l i t y w i l l have t o be s h a r e d b y th e a g e n c i e sand t h e r e s p o n s i b i l i t y f o r i t s e s t a b l i s h m e n t a ndo p e r a t i o n s h o u l d be ass igned on a case-by-caseb a s i s .S p e c i f i c a l l y , t h e major f i e l d s i t e s , l a rge c loudchambers, l a rge -sca le computers , and l a rge-sca lei n t e g ra t e d f l y i n g l a b o r a t o r i e s f a l l i n t o t h i sc a t e g o r y.


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In assigning responsibility for these facilitiesconsideration also should be given to their useby individual agencies for purposes other thanweather modification.I recommend that ESSA's proposed program forfield facilities, in addition to the Norman,Oklahoma facility, be conducted with due regardfor the mission needs of the Department ofInterior. Specifically, the first step in thisexpansion should be a general purpose fieldfacility in the Northeastern United States.ESSA should establish and operate the site notonly for ESSA's research, but also in collaborationwith the Department of the Interior, and thefacility should be shared between at least thzsetwo agencies.The development of an understanding of the basicphysics of cloud formation, dynamics, anddissipation is of prime importance in determiningthe nechanisms that can be used to modify cloudsand cloud systems. As a weather simulationfacility, the very large cloud chamber ho l d spromise to be a powerful tool for such investiga-tions. At the same time, prudence dictates that someexperience be obtained with one.such chamber beforeany consideration is given to the construction ofothcrs. Because such a facility bears a very strongrelationship to university research programs andthe training of research talent, I recommend thatsuch a facility be established and operated by theNational Center for Atmospheric Research underNSF sponsorship. On the other hand, because ofthe importance to other agencies of the researchto be done with the cloud chamber, I recommendthat N S F associate the other agencies with NSFin the planning and design of the chamber,andin its use after construction.


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I also f e e l t h a t t h e F e d er a l C o or di na to r f o rMeteorology should be a s s ig n e d t h e t a s k of p r e p a r i n gand s u b mi t t i n g an an n u a l r e p o r t on n a t i o n a l w ea t h e rm o d if i ca t io n a c t i v i t i e s . T h is r e p o r t i n g a ss ig nm e nti s a t p r e s e n t b y law g i v e n t o t h e N a t i o n a l S c i e n c eFoundat ion. I b e l i e ve t h a t it i s d e s i r a b le t o r e l i e v eN S F of t h i s burden. For o n e t h i n g , t h e p r i n c i p a lf u t u r e of w ea th er m o d i fi c at io n a c t i v i t i e s i s d i r e c t e dto ward ap p l i e d r e s ea r ch and o p e ra t i o n s , w hich a r e n o tand should not be i n the mains t ream of N S F ' s r e s p o n s i -b i l i t i e s f o r b a s i c r e s e a r ch . S ec on dl y, a s h a s a l r e a d yb ee n p o i n te d o u t , w e a th e r m o d i f i c a t i o n r e s e a r c h a ndo p e r a t i o n s a r e i n e x t r i c a b l y i nt er w ov e n w i t h m e te or o-l o g i c a l s e r v i c e and s u p p o rt i n g r e s e a r c h . R e q u i r in g t h eFed e ra l Co o rd i n a t o r fo r Me teorol og y t o r ep o r t o n t h en a t i o n a l w e at he r m o d i f i ca t i on e f f o r t , t h e r e f o r e , a p p ea r st o be a n a t u r a l s t e p .

Requ la t ion and Cont ro lA s broug ht ou t c l e a r l y by t he NSF S pe c i a l CommissionReports ( R e f s . 2 and 3 ) , t h e s u b j e c t of r e g u l a t i o n a n d

c o n t r o l i n w ea t h e r mo d i f i ca t i o n i s a complex and urgentone. I do n o t f e e l t h a t I can recommend a speci f ico r g an i za t io n t o be a s si gn ed t h e r e s p o n s i b i l i t y f o rr e g u l a t i o n a n d c o n t r o l of w e at he r m o d i f i ca t i o n a c t i v i -t i e s . I do, however, have a few r e l a t e d recommendations.

I f e e l v e ry s t r o ng l y t h a t t h e r e g u l a t i n g body m u s tn o t be one o f t h e o p e r a t i n g a g e nc i es p a r t i c i p a t i n g i nth e Nat i ona l Weather Modi f ica t ion Program. T o a s s i g nt h i s r e s p o n s i b i l i t y t o one of t h e s e a g e n c i e s wouldim m ed ia te ly g e n e r a te c o n f l i c t s of i n t e r e s t , sow t h eseeds of d i s s e n s i o n , and doom t h e e f f o r t s a t r e g u l a t i o nand c o n t r o l t o en d l e s s f r E s t r a t i o n .


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t o e s t a b l i s h an i n t e r n a t i o n a l agency t o d e a lw i t h w ea th e r mo d i f i ca t i o n , w h i l e w e l l i n t en d ed ,a r e l i k e l y t o be of d u b io u s v a l u e an d t o c r e a t er a t h e r t h an r e s o l v e p o l i t i c a l p ro ble ms -- if t h eex p e r i en ce i n nuclea r energ y and spac e i s anyguide .A more p r a c t i c a l a nd c o n s t r u c t i v e a p pr oa ch t o t h ei n te r n a t i o n a l problem--and one which shou ld paver a t h e r t h an b l o ck t h e way f o r t h e n eces s a ryexperimentat ion--would be th ro ugh b i l a t e r a l o rm u l t i l a t e r a l a r r a n g e m e n t s . I n t h e s e , t h e U . S .would s e e k t o e s t a b l i s h t h e m ut ua l i n t e r e s t ofn e i g h bo r i n g c o u n t r i e s i n l a r g e - s c a l e e x p er i m en t sand t o engage them with u s i n such exper im ents .I n t h i s way, w e co u l d ed u ca t e a growing numbero f c o u n t r i e s , e s t a b l i s h our good f a i t h , i n c r e a set h e a c c e p t a b i l i t y of t h e p rogram i n t h e e ye sof t h i r d c o u n t r i e s , d e m o ns t ra t e v a l u e st r a n s c e n d i n g n a t i o n a l i n t e r e s t s , and w i ns u p p o rt w here r e q u i r e d i n i n t e r n a t i o n a l f orum swhich may address themselves on a p o l i t i c a lb a s i s t o t h e p ro bl ems o f w ea t h e r mo d i f i ca t i o n .The o f f i c e f o r r e g u l a t i o n a nd c o n t r o l , d i s c u ss e di n t h e p re c e di n g s e c t i o n , w i l l c e r t a i n l y havet o bz i nv olv ed . N a t io n a l r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s w i l lhave t o b e c l a r i f i e d a nd d e f i n ed . T h i s , h ow ev er ,i s 6 s u b j e c t ou ts id e th e scope of my ass ignm ent .( 2 ) B e n e f i t s and p o t e n t i a l p a y o f f s of w e a th e r

modi f i ca t ion exper iments on a n a t i o n a l sca l ehave a l ready been d i s c u s s e d i n t h e i n t r o d u c t i o nt o t h i s r e p o r t . When a p p l i e d on a g l o b a l s c a l et h e s e b e n e f i t s c o u ld i n c r e a s e g r e a t l y . Forexample , modi f i c a t ion and d i ve rs io n of t r o p i c a ls t o r m s o r typhoons i n t h e Weste rn P a c i f i c o r


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Indian Ocean would r e s u l t n ot o n l y i n t h ep rev en t i o n o f p ro p e r t y damage s e v e ra l ordersof m a g n i t u d e g r e a t e r t h a n i n North America,b u t a l s o , a nd m o r e i m p o rt a n tl y , i n t h e s a v in gof c o u n t le s s numbers of human l i v e s . S i m i l a rb e n e f i t s w ould o ccur f ro m p r ec i p i t a t i o na ug m en ta ti on b y r e l i e v i n g l a r g e areas fromt h e e f f e c t s of ex t ens ive d rough ts . Thus,v a l ua b l e e x p e ri en c e g ai ne d i n i t i a l l y on asma l l e r , n a t i o n a l sca le , may e v e n tu a l l y bei m po r ta n t i n t e r n a t i o n a l l y , p e r m i t t in g us t oc o o p e r a t e w i t h and a s s i s t o th er c o u n tr i e s i nt h e sav ing of human l i v e s and p ro pe r ty , andi n th e enhancement of human w e l f a r e . T h i si s a n o t h e r of th e b e n e f i t s t h a t may r e s u l t froma v i g o r o u s n a t i o n a l program s u ch a s t h a t d i s c u s s e di n t h e p r e c e d i n g s e c t i o n s .

Concludinq S t a t e m e n tI t i s b e l ie v e d t h a t t h e p la n I recommend h e r e i nwould pe rm it t h e development of a National WeatherMo di f i ca t ion Program wi th a s a t i s f a c t o r y f orw ard t h r u s ta t a r e a l i s t i c pace, would provide i n t e r e s t e d a g e n c i e s

w i t h a s u b s t a n t i a l and s a t i s f y i n g in v ol ve m e nt , w ouldmake good u s e o f t h e e x p e ri e n ce and i n t e r e s t of t h ev a r i o u s a g e n c i e s , i s c o n s i s t e n t w i t h ass igned agencyr e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s , c an d e ve lo p i n t o a w e l l- c o or d in a t edan d i n t eG r a t ed n a t i o n a l p ro gram, and s h o u l d av o i dp o t e n t i a l c o n f l i c ts .


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REFERENCES

1.

2.

3.

Final Report of the Panel on Weather and ClimateModification to the Committee on Atmospheric Sciences,National Academy of Sciences-National Research Council;"Weather and Climate Modification, Problems and Prospects,"Volume I- Summary and Recommendations, Volume II- Researchand Development, Publication No. 1350, 1966Report of the Special Commission on Weather Modification,National Science Foundation; "Weather and ClimateModification," Publication No. NSF 66-3, transmittedto NSF December 20, 1965Report to the Special Commission on Weather Modification,National Science Foundation; "Weather Modification Law,Controls, Operations," Publication No. NSF 66-7 (nodate)


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APPENDICES

I Panel on Weather and Climate Modification to theCommittee on Atmospheric Sciences, National Academyof Sciences-National Research Council: Membershipand Recommendations

I1 Special Commission on Weather Modification, NationalScience Foundation: Membership and Recommendations

I11 Report prepared by the ICAS Select Panel on WeatherModification; "Present and Future Plans of FederalAgencies in Weather-Climate Modification," datedJune 20, 1966

IV Memorandum for Dr. Homer E. Newel1 from J. HerbertHollomon, Chairman, ICAS, Subject: National WeatherModification Program, dated June 21, 1966

V NASA Panel to Study Weather Modification Activities;Membership, Chronology of Meetings, and a Compilationof Supporting Material used by the Panel

VI Budget Recommendations and Trends for a NationalWeather Modification Program


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PANEL ON WEATHER AND CLIMATE MODIFICATIONto the

Committee on Atmospheric SciencesNAS-NRC

MEMBERSHIPRECOMMENDATIONS

APPENDIX I

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Committee on Atmospheric Sciences, NAS-NRC

Gordon J. F. MacDonald, University of California at Los Angeles,Chairman

Julian H. Bigelow, Institute for Advanced StudyJule G. Charney, Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyRalph E. Huschke, The RAND Corporation

Francis S . Johnson, Southwest Center for Advanced StudiesHeinz H. Lettau, University of WisconsinEdward N. Lorenz, Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyJames E. McDonald, University of Arizona*Joanne Simpson, Environmental Science Services AdministrationJoseph Smagorinsky, Environmental Science ServicesAdministration

Verner E. Suomi, University of WisconsinEdward Teller, University of California at LivermoreH. K. Weickmann, Environmental Science Services AdministrationE. J. Workman, University of Hawaii

LIAISON MEMBERSDonald L. Gilman, Environmental Science Services AdministrationEdward P. Todd, National Science Foundation*Through 1964

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Committee on Atmospheric SciencesNational Academy of Sciences - National Research Council

AREAS AND RECOMMENDATIONSAdministration and Funding of Research and Development inWeather Modification

We recommend an immediate and thorough study of theadministration and support of research and developmentin weather modification.We recommend that immediate steps be taken by theagencies to raise the support from the 1965 level of$5 million to at least $30 million by 1970.

Projects in Stimulation of PrecipitationWe recommend the early establishment of several care-fully designed, randomized, seeding experiments, plannedin such a way as to permit assessment of the seedabilityof a variety of storm types.We recommend, therefore, that means be found, at federalexpense if necessary, to secure much better evaluativereports on operational programs than are currentlyavailable.We recommend that attention be given immediately tocareful monitoring and regulation of operational programsfor weather modification.

Re search PropertiesWe recommend that planning be started immediately on allthe following major field investigations:

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Major Research Facilities and Support SystemsWe recommend that all necessary steps be taken toencourage the computer industry to respond to theseprospective requirements.We recommend full U.S. support and leadership inpromptly establishing an advanced global-observationalsystem.We recommend that the civil research aircraft facilitiesbe enlarged to include diversified types of aircraftand supporting data-gathering systems to meet therequirements placed upon them.

Internal AspectsWe recommend that the federal agency assigned majoradministrative responsibilities in this field also beempowered to deal with the complex internationalissues arising from weather-modification projects.

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SPECIAL COMMISSION ON WEATHER MODIFICATIONNational Science Foundation

MEMBERSHIP

RECOMMENDAT ONS

APPEND IX I1

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A. R. Chamberlain, Chairman, Vice President, Colorado StateUniversity

John Bardeen, Vice Chairman, Departments of Physics andElectrical Engineering, University of Illinois

William G. Colman, Executive Director, Advisory Commission onIntergovernmenta Re la tions

John C . Dreier, School of Advanced International Studies,The Johns Hopkins University

Leonid Hurwicz, Department of Economics, University ofMinnesotaThomas F. Malone, Second Vice President, Research Department,Travelers Insurance Company

Arthur W. Murphy, Columbia University School of LawSumner T. Pike, Lubec, MaineWilliam S. von Arx, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

and Woods Hole Oceanographic InstitutionGilbert F. White, Department of Geograpny, University ofChicago

Karl M. Wilbur, Department of Zoology, Duke University

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CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

Progress and Prospecks in Weather and Climate ModificationThe Commission concludes that sound progress toward thetechnology of weather and climate modification must bebased on four fundamental pursuits:

a. Assessment and development of an understandingof natural climatic change.

b. Assessment of the extent and development of theunderstanding of inadvertent modifications of weatherand climate.c. Improvement of the process of weather predictionas a social benefit and as proof of scientificunderstanding of atmospheric behavior, andd. Development of means for deliberate interventionin atmospheric processes for weather and climatecontrol and evaluation of their consequences.

As steps toward these attainments the Corraiss ioi i recommendst k a t the following enterprises be fostered:

i . Examination of the routes, rates, and reservoirsof water substance and energy exchanges in all aspectsof the hydrologic cycle.2. Investigation by numerical laboratory and fieldexperiments of the dynamics of climate as a basicstudy for weather modification technology.

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The largest weather modification debit item is likelyto spring from the decreased stability of communities,which would manifest itself in an increase in pests,weeds, and pathogens. The identity of the species in-volved in these disruptions cannot be predicted, norcan their cost.For the present, weather and climate modification shouldbe restricted to iocal small-scale operations.Larger scale operations, such as an attempt to increasethe rainfall of any substantial part of this country,should not be undertaken, from a biological point ofview, in the present state of knowledge.

A l l weather modification experiments of a scale largeenough to have important biological consequences, sucha hose currently envisioned f o r the 'u'pper ColoradoBasin, should be preceded and accompanied by carefulecological monitoring and computer simulation studies.Manipulating the weather to obtain a net benefit willdemand much better understanding of the interactions ofweather, climate and organisms than now available.Adequate understanding of the interrelationship ofweatner, climate and ecology will demand a very expensivelong-term research program. Present resources ofecolagically trained investigators are inadequate toccjpe with these problems.Tho Working Group of the Ecological Society of America,which pri-vided background material for the Commission,was concerned primarily with modifications of weathersystems ranging from a single cloud to an extratropicalcyclonic storm. The Working Group stated that short-term modifications of weather of a magnitude similarto t h e fluctuations in nature are least likely to havedanqerous unforeseen consequences. If undesirableresults appear, the modifications can be discontinued.

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A program of carefully planned precipitation-orientedfield experiments should be carried out under completecontrol of the scientists, embodying the requiredtechnical knowledge, possessing continuity over a periodneeded for conclusiveness, and on sufficient scale topermit geographic conclusions, as well as statisticalstratification according to the type of seeding agent,mode of injection, cloud type, etc.

The Human Effects of Weather and Climate ModificationSteps should be taken to assure that wherever fieldexperimentation or commercial operations are undertakenin weather and climate modification arrangements bemade to study the social consequences.A special panel should be established to exchange andgive c r i t i c a l review to the results of such studies.The method of assessing impacts of weather modificationshould be the subject of research looking to its re-finement and extension.Freedom of field experimentation should be supportedby providing indemnification of Federally financedexperimenters against damage claims.Research should be encouraged on the basic relationshipsbetLeen weather characteristics and human activity.Decision rmking processes in the face of uncertaintyas to weather modification and its effects should besubjected to careful investigation as a means of increas-ing the government's abilizy to predict the results ofalternative policies and methods for weather modification.Interdisciplinary study of modifications which man makesinadvertently should be encouraged.

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Weather Modification and International RelationsThe Commission believes that it would be highly desirablefor the Government of the United States, in connectionwith the expansion of its program of weather and climatemodification, to issue a basic statement as to how itviews the relationship of this new national effort tothe interests, hopes, and possible apprehensions ofthe rest of the world. The Commission further believesthat emphasis upon international cooperation in thedevelopment of weather and climate modification programswill contribute substantially to scientific and technicalprogress and will also serve the national purpose ofseeking to build a peaceful world order.The Commission recommends the early enunciation of anational policy embodying two main points: (1) thatit is the purpose of the United States, with normal anddue regard to its own basic interests, to pursue itsefforts in weather and climate modification for peacefulends and for the constructive improvement of conditionsof human life throughout the world: and ( 2 ) that theUnited States, recognizing the interests and concernsof other countries, welcomes and solicits their cooperation,directly and through international arrangements, for theachievement of that objective. This cooperation shouldcover both research and operational programs of interestto other countries. It shouid be concerned not onlywith deliberate but also inadvertent human interventionsin the atmosphere that affect weather and climate. Sucha policy declaration could be issued by the Presidentor incorporated in any basic legislation on the subjectof weather and climate modification which the Congressmay enact.

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Funding and Administration RequirementsThe Commission has considered carefully the problemsattendant upon the assignment of responsibility forweather and climate modification activities within theExecutive Branch of the Federal Government.There are no easy solutions to these questions. TheCommissioii believes the adoption of the followingrecommendations would significantly improve the effective-ness of the Nation's efforts in this field, and wouldfaciiitate the achievement of the scientific and otherobjectives specified elsewhere in this report.

a. Responsibility for Research, Development, andOperationsThe Commission recommends: (1) the assignment ofthe mission of developing and testing techniquesfor modifying weather and climate to a single agencyin the Executive Branch of the Government - forexample to the Environmental Science ServicesAdministration of the Department of Commerce or to acompletely new agency organized for the purpose; (2)tne continuance and expansion of research in theatmospheric sciences by the National Science Foundation,including its program directed atproviding a satis-tictory scientific basis for weather and climatenx5fication and the maintenance of the National< t :!iiter for Atmospheric Research as a basic researchfaciilty for this purpose; and ( 3 ) the conduct orsupport, pursuant to Executive Order 10521, of suchbasic and applied research by other Federal agenciesas is required! for their varied missions as well asthe conduct of operational activities necessary forthe accomplishment of such missions (e.g., precipita-tion augmentation for the reservoir system of theBureau of Reclamation; lightning suppression by theU . S . Forest Service; military applications by theDepartment of Defense; etc.).

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If the general vission of developing the technologyfor climate modification is assigned to a singleagency, present overlap and lack of concerted effortamong the various agencies will be remedied to aconsiderable extent. Due to the great importanceof the field, however, and because of the necessityof maintaining an interdisciplinary and internationalapproach to weather activities, it is believed thatcontinuing attention must be forthcoming from theExecutive Office of the President. Consequently,some mechanism concerned solely with weather andclimate modification, with emphasis on the develop-ment and operational side, needs to be establishedwithin the OST. The OST's concern should embracefunding, basic research, applied research, develop-ment, testing and evaluation. Such a mechanism couldtake over from ICAS the weather and climate modifica-tion components. ICAS could continue to be concernedwith atmospheric research.d. An Advisory CommitteeThe Commission also recommends the utilization of theNational Academy of Sciences and the National Academyof Engineering for continuing review and adviceregarding the national program of weather and climatemodification.Both the President's Science Advisory Committee andthe Congress need to be able to obtain scientific andpublic policy advice from a group of knowledgeablepeople from outside the Government. This need couldperhaps be met by the appointment of a standingcommittee in the National Academy of Sciences incooperation with the National Academy of Engineering.Such a committee includes persons with experiencein the physical sciences, engineering, the biologicalsciences and the social sciences.

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Agency

AGRIC .ESSA

DOD

BUR.I i EC .NSF

NASA

FAA

TOTAL

- - 0.015 0.140 -- - 1.700 1.000 -0.100 0.300 0.140 0.180 0.6600.400 27.100 5.200 4.900 12.200

0.930 - - 0.0% 0.2101.030 - - 0.110 0.240

- 3 OOO- 70.0000;200 1.400 o 700 0.200 0.2000.500 2.500 1.650 0.500 0.750

1.430 4.700 0.855 0.610 1.0703.030 99.600 8.550 6.510 13,190

0.115 0.495 -3.250 9.350 -

- 1.380 0.1700.700 57.600 2.100

- 1.230 0.056- 1.380 0.060

01

--3.000- 70.000100 3.000 0.214

1.000 7.400 0.500

- 0.070 -- 0.150 0.0200.020 0.150 -- 0.950 -0.235 9.325 0.4344.950 1.46.830 2.680

includes boundary layer studies and remote sensing.# includes cl imate modif icat ion s tu dies and cumulus modif icat ion.

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Agency

AGRIG .

ESSA

DOD

BUR.R E G .

NSF

NASA

FAA

TOTAL

19671970ACILITIES FOR WEATIER MIDIFICATION --

n .

- 0.060 0.070 0.040 0.030 0.035 0.005 0,010 - 0.250- 0.220 0.350 0.950 0.300 1.880 0.100 0.200 - 4.0000.050 0.020 0.200 0.050 - 0.075 0.050 - 0.010 0.4558.000 13.100 .91.300 4.400. 2.600 2.000 0.800 - - 42.2000.040 0.060 ?$o.300 0.020 0.010 o . i io 0.050 - - 0.5900.050 0.070 3t0.330 0.020 0.010 0.130 0.060 - - 0.670

- 0.250 0.015 0.500 0.015 0.020 0.060 - - 0.8601.250 6.000 0.500 2.000 3.000 0.750 1.000 1.500 - 16.0000.200 0.080 0.045 0.165 0.070 0.080 0.012 0.085 - 0.7370.500 0.250 0.100 0.300 0.100 0.100 0.050 0.200 - 1.600

- 0.010- - - 0.010 - -- - - - - 0.015 - - - 0.015- 0.015- 0.090

- - 0.010 0.005 - - - -- - 0.040 0.050 - - - -

0.290 0.470 0.640 0.780 0.125 0.330 0.177 0.095 0.010 2.9179.800 19.640 12.620 7.720 6.010 4.875 2.010 1.900 - 64.575

i n c lu d e s r e s ea r c h a i r c r a f t o n l y .

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I

2

The proposed program would include computer simulation studies.The research plan woilld include a continuing comprehensive .analysisof prec ip i ta t ion da ta t o determine i f a measurable heneficial o rdetrimental effect occurred anywhere within the system.t h e r e would be comprehensive controlled ecological studies on theef fe ct on vegetat ion of dif fe re nt amounts and pat ter ns of prec ipi ta t ion .

Concurrently,

( 4 ) Boundary-Layer Energy Exchange. The e f f e c t of changing th eamount of advected energy through weather modification upon thep rocesses a t t he l ea f - a i r i n t e r f ace w i l l be evaluated and proceduresdeveloped t o minimize t he ef fe ct of spreading droughts, o r t o t ak eadvantage of bene f i t s from weather modification.Microclimate co nt rol measures W i l l be developed t o reduce evapo-t ranspi ra t ion , t o conserve s o i l mois ture reserves , and to assureadequate photosyn thetic ac t i v i t y of cropped and for est ed are as.The effects of weather modif icat ion on diffusion and eddytransferprocesses that are responsible for the exchange o f carbon dioxide,water vapor, and heat between leaf surfaces and the atmosphere w i l lbe c!.arif ied .( 5 ) Remote Sensing. Research w i l l be conducted to:

(a) Develop technology t o determine ecologic changes of p a s t20 yea rs re la te d t o inad ver ten t weather modi fication . Modernseq ilen tial a e r i a l photography compared wit h e a rl y photographycan provide some pre-weather mod ific atio n base s f o r measuringczlrrent and future trends.(b)multiscale remoie sensing which s ta r t s a t t he mi lac re p lo tand sc ale s upwards to s at el l i te -s ca le high res olut ion remotesensing.

Develop scaling laws and change detecting systems by

(c)i n biomass and i t s c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s and t r e n d s i n c h a r a c t e r i s t i c ssig nif

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