National Integrated Drought Information SystemSoutheast US Pilot for Apalachicola-Flint-Chattahoochee River Basin8 May 2012

Outline• Current drought status and how we got here David Zierden,

Florida Climate Center• Stream flows and ground water status

Brian McCallum, US Geological Survey• Outlook

David Zierden, FCC, FSU• Streamflow forecasts

Jeff Dobur, SE River Forecast Center• El Niño phase forecasts

Klaus Wolter, U Colorado, Climate Diagnostics CenterInternational Research Institute for Climate and Society

• Summary and discussion

Current drought status from Drought Monitor

http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html

Cumulative Rainfall Deficits

Past 30 days

Past 180 days

http://water.weather.gov/precip/

7-day Rainfall Totals

Realtime stream flow compared with historical monthly averages

Current:

http://waterwatch.usgs.gov

Previous Month:

Below Normal 7-day Average Streamflows

Below normal 7-day average streamflow as compared with

historical streamflow for day shown

http://waterwatch.usgs.gov

Current:

Previous month:

Lake Lanier Inflows

http://waterwatch.usgs.gov

Chestatee near Dahlonega (02333500)

Chattahoochee near Cornelia (02331600)

Current Streamflows

Chattahoochee at West Point (02339500)

Flint at Bainbridge (02356000)

http://waterwatch.usgs.gov

Streamflows

Apalachicola at Chattahoochee (02358000)

http://waterwatch.usgs.gov

Groundwater Status

http://groundwaterwatch.usgs.gov

Miller County, GA(Upper Floridan Aquifer)

5-Day Precipitation Forecast

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day1-5.shtml

7-day average Pacific Ocean SST Anomalies

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml

Precipitation Outlook

1-month

3-month (MAM)

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/

U.S. Drought Outlook

Above Normal

Near Normal

Below Normal

1-Month Streamflow Forecasts

Apalachicola WatershedSoutheast River Forecast Center

Lake Lanier Inflows

Whitesburg

West Point

Columbus

WF George

Columbus

Woodruff

Blountstown

Lovejoy

Carsonville

Albany

May 8 – June 8 2012

Above Normal

Near Normal

Below Normal

3-Month Mean Daily Streamflow Forecasts

Apalachicola WatershedSoutheast River Forecast Center

Lake Lanier Inflows

Whitesburg

West Point

Columbus

WF George

Columbus

Woodruff

Blountstown

May 8 – August 82012

Lovejoy

Carsonville

Albany

81%

10%9%

98%

1% 1%

64%24%

12%

91%

7% 2%

85%

12%3%

Multivariate ENSO ForecastAlthough ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue for the next couple of months, the latest MEI forecast suggests a surprisingly strong tilt in the odds towards La Niña later this yearSource: Klaus Wolter

Months P La Niña P El Niño

MJ 2012 27% 27%

JA 2012 47% 12%

SO 2012 73% 09%

ND 2012 75% 00%

Most models predict neutral conditions to continue through the summerAbout 40% of models forecast El Niño to develop in the fall

http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/currentinfo/figure1.gif

Summary• Recent rains have provided some relief to short term drought, but

streamflows and groundwater levels remain critical• Rain expected in the next 7 days should be sustain crops, but will

not likely recharge reservoirs, streams, and groundwater• There is a very high likelihood that streamflows will be below

normal for the next three months• We are currently in a Neutral phase, which is expected to continue

though the summer• There are contradictory forecasts for the fall, with 2 of 5 climate

models predicting the development of El Niño and the multivariate ENSO index forecast showing more than 7 of 10 odds that La Niña will develop

• Suggestion: Because water supplies are already low, it would be prudent to prepare for another La Niña though we have some hope that El Niño will develop and bring fall and winter rains

References

SpeakersDavid Zierden, FSUBrian McCallum, USGSJeffry Dobur, SERFC

Moderator:Keith Ingramm SECC

Additional informationGeneral drought information

http://drought.gov http://www.drought.unl.edu

General climate and El Niño information http://agroclimate.org/climate/

Streamflow monitoring http://waterwatch.usgs.gov

Groundwater monitoringhttp://groundwaterwatch.usgs.gov

Thanks for joining us!

Next briefing:

Tuesday, May 22, 1:00 pm EDT