National Chicken Council’s 57 th Annual Conference Situation & Outlook Panel October 5, 2011
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Transcript of National Chicken Council’s 57 th Annual Conference Situation & Outlook Panel October 5, 2011
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National Chicken Council’s57th Annual Conference
Situation & Outlook PanelOctober 5, 2011
Gerald A. Bange, ChairpersonWorld Agricultural Outlook Board
Office of the Chief EconomistU.S. Department of Agriculture
Washington, D.C.
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U.S. Corn Supply and Use2010 Estimate and 2011/12 Forecasts
2010/11 estimate(Sept. 12)
2011/12 forecast(May 11)
2011/12 forecast(June 9)
2011/12 forecast(July 12)
2011/12 forecast
(August 11)
2011/12 forecast(Sept. 12)
Planted area (Mill. acres) 88.2 92.2 90.7 92.3 92.3 92.3Harvested area (Mill. acres) 81.4 85.1 83.2 84.9 84.4 84.4Yield (bushels per acre) 152.8 158.7 158.7 158.7 153.0 148.1
Million bushelsBeginning stocks 1,708 730 730 880 940 920Production 12,447 13,505 13,200 13,470 12,914 12,497Imports 30 20 20 20 19 15Total supply 14,185 14,255 13,950 14,370 13,874 13,432
Feed and residual 5,000 5,100 5,000 5,050 4,900 4,700Food, seed, and industrial 6,430 6,455 6,455 6,550 6,510 6,410Ethanol 5,020 5,050 5,050 5,150 5,100 5,000Domestic use 11,430 11,555 11,455 11,600 11,410 11,110
Exports 1,835 1,800 1,800 1,900 1,750 1,650Total use 13,265 13,355 13,255 13,500 13,160 12,760
Ending stocks 920 900 695 870 714 672Percent
Stocks to use ratio 6.9 6.7 5.2 6.4 5.4 5.3Dollars per bushel
Average market price 5.20 5.50/6.50 6.00/7.00 5.50/6.50 6.20/7.20 6.50/7.50
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INDUSTRY
EXPECTATIONS
CROP
REPORT
EDBY NASS
WASDE9/12/11
AVERAGE
RANGE
-- million bushels --
Wheat
2,150
1/
2,046
1,959 - 2,247 Corn
1,128
920
962
820 - 1,050
Soybeans
215
225
225
202 - 240
GRAIN STOCKSAS OF SEPTEMBER 1, 2011
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Quarterly Corn Feed & Residual Use
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Ethanol Producer Net Returns Above Variable Costs / Spot prices
-0.20
-0.10
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
9/7/07 4/6/08 11/4/08 6/4/09 1/2/10 8/2/10 3/2/11 9/30/11
$/gal.
Note: USDA-WAOB estimates based on USDA-AMS plant reports and DOE-EIA estimates and forecasts for natural gas and electricity prices.
+ 37 cents / gal. (9/30/11)
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Ethanol and RBOB Nearby Futures Prices
1.40
1.60
1.80
2.00
2.20
2.40
2.60
2.80
3.00
3.20
3.40
3.60
9/1/10 10/27/10 12/22/10 2/16/11 4/13/11 6/8/11 8/3/11 9/28/11
$/gal.
Note: Ethanol prices based on CBOT nearby futures. RBOB (Reformulated Gasoline Blend Stock) based on NYME nearby futures.
Reformulate Gasoline Blend Stock (RBOB)
Ethanol
$0.12
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U.S. Soybeans Supply and Use2010 Estimate and 2011/12 Forecasts
2010/11 estimate(Sept. 12)
2011/12 forecast(May 11)
2011/12 forecast(June 9)
2011/12 forecast(July 12)
2011/12 forecast
(August 11)
2011/12 forecast(Sept. 12)
Planted area (Mill. acres) 77.4 76.6 76.6 75.2 75.0 75.0Harvested area (Mill. acres) 76.6 75.7 75.7 74.3 73.8 73.8Yield (bushels per acre) 43.5 43.4 43.4 43.4 41.4 41.8
Mill. bushelsBeginning stocks 151 170 180 200 230 225Production 3,329 3,285 3,285 3,225 3,056 3,085Imports 15 15 15 15 15 15Total supply 3,495 3,470 3,480 3,440 3,301 3,325
Crush 1,650 1,655 1,655 1,655 1,635 1,635Seed and residual 125 115 115 115 111 111Domestic use 1,775 1,770 1,770 1,769 1,746 1,746
Exports 1,495 1,540 1,520 1,495 1,400 1,415Total use 3,270 3,310 3,290 3,264 3,146 3,161
Ending stocks 225 160 190 175 155 165Percent
Stocks to use ratio 6.9 4.8 5.8 5.4 4.9 5.2Dollars per bushel
Average market price 11.35 12.00/14.00 13.00/15.00 12.00/14.00 12.50/14.50 12.65/14.65
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Soybean Meal Prices 1995 - 2011
Dollars per ton
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U.S. Monthly Biodiesel Production
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U.S. Domestic Soybean Oil-based Biodiesel Production Margin
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Biodiesel Price Comparisons
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Renewable Fuel Mandates(RFS 2 -- Excluding Corn-Based)
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Monthly canola oil stocks
0
100
200
300
400
500
Oct-06Apr-07
Oct-07Apr-08
Oct-08Apr-09
Oct-09Apr-10
Oct-10Apr-11
Oct-11
Mil. Lbs.
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1.81.92.02.12.22.32.42.52.6
Aug-10Oct-
10Dec-
10Feb-11
Apr-11
Jun-11Aug-11
Oct-11
2011 2012
Soybean/Corn Price Ratio (March 2012 Futures)
ratio
1.94
2.07
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World Corn Production
Country or Region2010/11 estimate
2011/12 forecast
Change from previous month
Change from 2010/11
Million Tons Percent PercentWorld 824.0 854.7 -0.7 3.7United States 316.2 317.4 -3.2 0.4
Foreign 507.8 537.2 0.9 5.8Argentina 22.0 27.5 5.8 25.0Brazil 57.5 61.0 7.0 6.1Mexico 20.6 24.0 0.0 16.5Canada 11.7 10.0 -9.1 -14.6European Union 55.9 61.0 1.6 9.2FSU-12 18.6 27.6 5.7 48.7Ukraine 11.9 18.0 9.1 51.0
South Africa 12.0 12.5 0.0 4.2China 173.0 178.0 0.0 2.9September 12, 2011
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September 12, 2011
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Soybean Price (in Brazilian Real)
$13.00/bu
$9.50/bu