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Transcript of National Centers for Environmental Prediction “Where America’s Climate, Weather and Ocean...
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
“Where America’s Climate, Weather and Ocean Services Begin”
Dr. Louis W. UccelliniDirector, NCEP
Fall COPC Meeting
Suitland, MD
November 14-15, 2007
2
Overview
• NCEP Overview
• Performance Metrics
• Computer Status
• 2006 Implementations
• Upcoming Implementations
• Plans for New Building
3
Deliver analyses, guidance, forecasts and warnings for weather, ocean, climate, water, land surface and space weather to the nation and the world. NCEP provides science-based products and services through collaboration with partners and users to protect life and property, enhance the nation’s economy and support the nation’s growing need for environmental information.
EMC - Environmental Modeling CenterHPC – Hydromet. Prediction CenterNCO - NCEP Central OperationsCPC - Climate Prediction CenterOPC - Ocean Prediction CenterSPC – Storm Prediction CenterSEC – Space Environment CenterTPC – Tropical Prediction CenterAWC – Aviation Weather Center
NCEP Review
CPCEMCHPCNCOOPCSEC
SPC
AWC
TPC
Striving to be America’s first choice, first alert and preferred partner for climate, weather and ocean prediction services.
4
5
NCEP: “From the Sun to the Sea”
- Model Development, Implementation and Applications for Global and Regional Weather, Climate, Oceans and now Space Weather
- International Partnerships in Ensemble Forecasts
- Data Assimilation including the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation
- Super Computer, Workstation and Network Operations
• Solar Monitoring, Warnings and Forecasts• Climate Forecasts: Weekly to Seasonal to Inter-annual• El Nino – La Nina Forecast• Weather Forecasts to Day 7• Hurricanes, Severe Weather, Snowstorms, Fire Weather• Aviation Forecasts and Warnings• Offshore and High Seas Forecasts and Warnings
6
Space Weather Name Change
As of October 1, 2007, the former Space Environment Center has a new name:
Space Weather Prediction Center
Need to solidify relative roles with regard to NOAA and DoD, especially for operational civilian prediction functions/backup and access to numerical model based prediction.
7
Commercial Space Transportation Airline Polar Flights
Microchip technology Precision Guided Munitions Cell phones Atomic Clock Satellite Operations Carbon Dating experiments GPS Navigation Ozone Measurements Aircraft Radiation Hazard Commercial TV Relays Communications Satellite Orientation Spacecraft Charging Satellite Reconnaissance & Remote Sensing Instrument Damage Geophysical Exploration. Pipeline Operations Anti-Submarine Detection Satellite Power Arrays Power Distribution Long-Range Telephone Systems Radiation Hazards to Astronauts Interplanetary Satellite experiments VLF Navigation Systems (OMEGA, LORAN) Over the Horizon Radar Solar-Terres. Research & Applic. Satellites Research & Operations Requirements Satellite Orbit Prediction Solar Balloon & Rocket experiments Ionospheric Rocket experiments Short-wave Radio Propagation
Growth of Space WeatherGrowth of Space WeatherCustomersCustomers
NOAA Space WeatherPrediction Center
Space Weather Prediction CenterEvolving Customer Base
8
Model Performance
Anomaly Correlation - Day-5 - 500 millibar
Southern Hemisphere
Northern Hemisphere
9
Product Generation Summary
Comms Upgrade
05
1015202530354045
JUL JAN JUL JAN JUL JAN JUL JAN JUL JAN JUL JAN JULN
umbe
r of H
its (M
illio
ns)
Popularity of NCEP Models Web Page
01 02 03 04 05 06 07
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Computing Capability
•Receives Over 1.7 Billion Global Observations Daily•Computational Speed: 13.99 Trillion Calculations/Sec•Global Models (Weather, Ocean, Climate)•Regional Models (Aviation, Severe Weather, Fire Weather)•Hazards Models (Hurricane, Volcanic Ash, Dispersion)•Backup in Fairmont, WV; guaranteed 15 min. switch over•Upgrade Operational January 24, 2007•Next procurement cycle to begin 2008-2009
Commissioned/Operational IBM Supercomputer in Gaithersburg, MD (June 6, 2003)
Primary Weather Primary Weather $13.9 M$13.9 MPrimary Climate Primary Climate $5.3 M$5.3 MBackup Backup $7.2 M$7.2 MTotal: Total: $26.4 M$26.4 M
11
Central Computing System
• Scheduled for Fall 2009• Will shift primary computer operations from
Gaithersburg, MD to Offutt AFB (AFWA)• Will also upgrade communication circuits
12
2007 ImplementationsChange (Additions) Planned Actual/ChangeGlobal Forecast System (GFS)
Hybrid Sigma-Pressure GFS Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) Analysis
3rd Qtr FY074th Qtr FY07
1 May 071 May 07
North Amer. Mesoscale (NAM)WRF Physics Upgrade DGEX Physics upgrade WRF model upgrade Hi-Res Window
3rd Qtr FY073rd Qtr FY074th Qtr FY073rd Qtr FY07
2nd Qtr FY08
Real-Time Mesoscale Anlys. (RTMA)RTMA upgradeExtension to OCONUS
3rd Qtr FY07 1st Qtr FY08
13
2007 ImplementationsChange (Additions) Planned Actual/ChangeShort Range Ensemble Forecast
Bias Correction for Precipitation 4th Qtr FY07 1st Qtr FY08
NAEFSIncrease U.S. Membership from 15 20 Increase in vertical levelsNew Products
2nd Qtr FY074th Qtr FY074th Qtr FY07
27 March 072nd Qtr FY08
Fire WeatherReinstate into operations 2nd Qtr FY07
Undergoing OSIP review 2nd Qtr FY08
Hurricane Modeling Hurricane WRF in parallel operationsProbabilistic Storm Surge
3rd Qtr FY073rd Qtr FY07
19 June 0712 June 07
14
2007 ImplementationsChange (Additions) Planned Actual/ChangeAir Quality Forecast
Expanded domain to CONUS 3rd Qtr FY07 4th Qtr FY07
Ocean ModelingMulti-grid Wave Model RTOFS/HYCOM assimil. upgradeGODAS
4th Qtr FY073rd Qtr FY071st Qtr FY08
1st Qtr FY085 June 2007
Rapid Update Cycle (RUC)Assimilation of additional data sourcesUpgrade radiation, convection, and land-sea parameterization
1st Qtr FY08 1st Qtr FY08
15
2008 Planned Implementations
Model Upgrade Planned
Short-Range Ensemble Forecasts (SREF) 12/4/07
North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) 12/4/07
Climate Forecast System (CFS) 12/18/07
Real-time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA) for Alaska 1/8/08
Regional Ensemble for Olympics 2/11/08
North American Mesoscale (NAM) Bundle 2/21/08
Great Lakes Wave Model 3/3/08
16
2008 Planned Implementations
Model Upgrade Planned
Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) 3/25/08
Real-time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA) for Hawaii, Puerto Rico 3/25/08
Global Forecast System (GFS) Bundle 5/5/08
Hurricane WRF Upgrade 5/30/08
Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) upgrade 6/17/08
Wave Ensemble 6/23/08
17
2008 Planned Implementations
Model Upgrade PlannedReal-time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA) for Guam
7/7/08
North American Mesoscale (NAM) Bundle 8/11/08
Short-Range Ensemble Forecasts (SREF) 8/18/08
Air Quality 9/26/08
18
Air Quality
WRF NMM/ARWWorkstation WRF
WRF: ARW, NMMETA, RSM GFS, Canadian Global Model
Satellites99.9%
Regional NAMWRF NMM
North American Ensemble Forecast System
Hurricane GFDLHWRF
GlobalForecastSystem
Dispersion
ARL/HYSPLIT
Forecast
Severe Weather
Rapid Updatefor Aviation
ClimateCFS
1.7B Obs/Day
Short-RangeEnsemble Forecast
NOAA’s NWS Model Production Suite
MOM3
NOAH Land Surface Model
Coupled
Global DataAssimilation
OceansHYCOM
WaveWatch III
NAM/CMAQ*
19
NCEP Production SuiteWeather, Ocean & Climate Forecast Systems
Version 3.0 April 9, 2004
0
20
40
60
80
100
0:00 0:30 1:00 1:30 2:00 2:30 3:00 3:30 4:00 4:30 5:00 5:30 6:00
6 Hour Cycle: Four Times/Day
Perc
ent U
sed
RUCFIREWXWAVESHUR/HRWGFSfcstGFSanalGFSensETAfcstETAanalSREFAir QualityOCEANMonthlySeasonal
GD
AS
GFS analysis
NA
M analys
CFS
RTOFS
SREF NAM
AQ
GFSHUR
RD
AS
Data processingCurrent (2007)
GENS/NAEFS
Current - 2007
NCEP Production SuiteWeather, Ocean, Land & Climate Forecast Systems
20
Forces for Change• Increasing emphasis on ensemble approaches
– Multi-model ensembles• SREF• NAEFS• Climate Forecast System
• Entering the NPOESS era– More rapid access to
hyperspectral data– GPS soundings– Higher resolution surface
radiance data• All models run within ESMF
– Models run concurrently – Hybrid vertical coordinate– Coupled– Spanning all scales
• Operational Earth System model – more explicit hydro, climate and ecosystems applications
Model Region 1
Model Region 2
Global/Regional Model Domain
ESMF-based System
21
CFSMFS
NCEP Production SuiteWeather, Ocean & Climate Forecast Systems
Version 3.0 April 9, 2004
0
20
40
60
80
100
0:00 0:30 1:00 1:30 2:00 2:30 3:00 3:30 4:00 4:30 5:00 5:30 6:00
6 Hour Cycle: Four Times/Day
Perc
ent U
sed
RUCFIREWXWAVESHUR/HRWGFSfcstGFSanalGFSensETAfcstETAanalSREFAir QualityOCEANMonthlySeasonal
WAV
CFS & MFS
GENS/NAEFSGFS
Next Generation PrototypePhase 4 - 2015
Regional
Rap Refresh
GlobalHUR
SREF
Reforecast
Hydro / NIDIS/FF
Hydro
NAM
GDAS
RDAS
RTOFS RTOFSAQAQ
Computing factor: 81
22
NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction
• Defined requirements for 268,762 RSF at the University of Maryland’s Research Park (M-Square)
• Includes housing 800+ Federal employees, contractors, and visiting scientists • 5 NCEP Centers• NESDIS research and satellite services• OAR Air Resources Laboratory
• Groundbreaking: 13 March 2006• 40 spaces for visiting
scientists
Date
Construction Start May 9, 2007
Move Start Dec 2008
Move Complete July 2009
Construction Schedule
23
Construction photographs – November, 2007
NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction
24
NORTH
NOAA Centerfor
Weather and ClimatePrediction
NCWCP
25
NCWCP
U Md
NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction
1 Mile
Silver Spring
26
Summary• NCEP sustaining an aggressive schedule for updating all forecast
components from models to service centers • Need to continue to maximize cooperation between OPCs
– ConOps– NUOPC - models– Backup!
• Many science-service opportunities/challenges exist– Must ensure that backup / COOP relationships are solidified
• Highest Priority Items:– Moving NCEP to new building and moving primary CCS to AFWA
• will pose many challenges over the next 1-2 years.