Nathaniel Beck, David Epstein, Simon Jackman & Sharyn O’Halloran
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Alternative Models of Dynamics in Binary Time- Series—Cross-Section Models: The Example of State Failure Nathaniel Beck, David Epstein, Simon Jackman & Sharyn O’Halloran
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Alternative Models of Dynamics in Binary Time-Series—Cross-Section Models: The Example of State Failure. Nathaniel Beck, David Epstein, Simon Jackman & Sharyn O’Halloran. The Problem of State Failure. Question: Why do countries “fail”? - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of Nathaniel Beck, David Epstein, Simon Jackman & Sharyn O’Halloran
Alternative Models of Dynamics in Binary Time-Series—Cross-Section Models: The Example of State Failure
Nathaniel Beck, David Epstein, Simon Jackman & Sharyn O’Halloran
Emory, 7/20/01 Beck, Epstein, Jackman & O'Halloran
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The Problem of State Failure
Question: Why do countries “fail”?Is it a function of political, social or economic conditions?Ultimately, can we predict failure and take steps to prevent it?
CW: The factors which induce failure are not the same ones that alleviate itTheoretical hook: basis of rule of law
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Failure Definition
Sample: 147 countries from 1955-97States can fail in any of 4 ways:
Revolutionary War (50 episodes/359 case-years)
Ethnic War (60 episodes/692 case-years)
Adverse Regime Change (87 episodes/255 case-years)
Genocide/Politicide (36 episodes/265 case-years)
Dependent variable is coded as a 1 if any of these failure modes is present
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Summary Statistics on Failure
Total of 4596 country-years in studyNon-rectangular due mainly to appearance and disappearance of states over time
18.47% of all country-years are failures68 countries (46%) had no failures
4 countries had only failures
IV’s: trade openness, democracy, infant mortality, population density
Emory, 7/20/01 Beck, Epstein, Jackman & O'Halloran
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1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995
Year
Failures
New Failures
Total Failures
New & Total Failures, 1955-97
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1y* = x + Probit: 1(0,1)P(y=1) = Probit(y*)
Probit Analysis
The Standard Case
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1Probit(x´)
Probit Analysis
Impact of Changing
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Probit Analysis
Error Terms for MLE
11*11 01 xPyPyP
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Probit Analysis
Time Series
t = 1 2 3… T
0½1
Country 1
0½1
Country 2
0½1
Country 3
0½1
Country 4
Probit Analysis – Time Series Cross Section
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Probit Analysis
Restricted Transition Model (LDV)
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Probit Analysis
Restricted Transition Model (LDV)
y* = Probit(x)
y* = Probit(x)
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Probit Analysis
Full Transition Model
y* = Probit(x)
y* = Probit(x)
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Probit Analysis
Lagged Latent Model
