Nate Silver - What Do Poker, Presidential Elections, & Sports Have in Common with Big Data? - Data...
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Nate Silver, Statistician, Author & Founder, ESPN'S FiveThirtyEight blog His presentation at the 4A's Data Summit on Oct. 16 in NYC. Visit http://datasummit.aaaa.org/ for more information.
Transcript of Nate Silver - What Do Poker, Presidential Elections, & Sports Have in Common with Big Data? - Data...
Big Data… Big Problems?
Big Data… Big Problems?
Big Data… Big Problems?
The Lessons of 2012
1. Average the Polls
2. Count to 270
3. Account for Margin of
Error
The 538 Method (Simplified)
The Lessons of 2012
The Lessons of 2012
The Lessons of 2012
The Lessons of 2012
“nate silver”
“joe biden”
The Lessons of 2012
“justin bieber”
Problem #1: Big Data… Big Bias?
Problem #1: Big Data… Big Bias?
Problem #1: Big Data… Big Bias?
The Signal-to-Noise Ratio
𝟓𝒙 𝟒𝟐
=𝟏𝟎
The Signal-to-Noise Ratio
𝟏𝟎𝒙𝟗𝟐
=𝟒𝟓
The Signal-to-Noise Ratio
𝟏𝟒𝟖 ,𝟎𝟎𝟎𝒙𝟏𝟒𝟕 ,𝟗𝟗𝟗𝟐
=𝟏𝟎 ,𝟗𝟓𝟏 ,𝟗𝟐𝟔 ,𝟎𝟎𝟎
Problem #2: Desperately Seeking Signal
http://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/sports.png
Problem #2: Desperately Seeking Signal
Problem #2: Desperately Seeking Signal
The Limits of Artificial “Intelligence”
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The Limits of Artificial “Intelligence”
+1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +3 +3 +3 +5 +9 = 29
+1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +3 +3 +5 +5 +9 = 30
Kasparov
Deep Blue
The Limits of Artificial “Intelligence”
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The Limits of Artificial “Intelligence”
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The Limits of Artificial “Intelligence”
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Problem #3: Feature or Bug?
Problem #3: Feature or Bug?
Problem #3: Feature or Bug?
Suggestions
Suggestions
1. Think Probabilistically
2. Know Where You’re Coming From
3. Try, and Err
Suggestion #1: Think Probabilistically
Levee: 51’Flood Prediction: 49’
Suggestion #1: Think Probabilistically
Levee: 51’Flood Prediction: 49’
Margin of Error: ±9’
Suggestion #1: Think Probabilistically
Suggestion #2: Know Where You’re Coming From
Suggestion #3: Try, and Err
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80%
100%
Effort
Accuracy
Suggestion #3: Try, and Err
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100%
Suggestion #3: Try, and Err
Effort
Accuracy
Suggestion #3: Try, and Err
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Suggestion #3: Try, and Err
Effort
Accuracy
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Suggestion #3: Try, and Err
Effort
Accuracy
Suggestion #3: Try, and Err
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Effort
Accuracy
Water level
Suggestion #3: Try, and Err
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Effort
Accuracy
Competitive Advantage
Suggestions
1. Think Probabilistically
2. Know Where You’re Coming From
3. Try, and Err
Suggestions
(Know Your Limitations)
2. Know Where You’re Coming From
3. Try, and Err
Suggestions
(Know Your Limitations)
(Consider Your Assumptions)
3. Try, and Err
Suggestions
(Know Your Limitations)
(Consider Your Assumptions)
(Refine Your Process)
Suggestions
“In Science, We Seek to Balance Creativity and Skepticism”
-- Michael Babyak, PhD, Department of Psychiatry and Behavioral Science, Duke University MedicalCenter
