NARD Legislative Conference Embassy Suites Lincoln, NE ... · Embassy Suites – Lincoln, NE ......
Transcript of NARD Legislative Conference Embassy Suites Lincoln, NE ... · Embassy Suites – Lincoln, NE ......
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NARD Legislative Conference Embassy Suites – Lincoln, NE
January 30, 2013
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Review of Project Background, Goals, and Activities
Methodology Recommendations Next Steps
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Project History
CPNRD working on IMP
Statutes link IMP to evaluation
▪ Current evaluation methodology is not linked to IMP
Result: CPNRD and NDNR lead effort to look at methodology
Goals:
▪ Best represent supplies and uses in basins
▪ Link evaluation to the IMP process.
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From minor tweaks to wholesale revisions were on the table
Possible changes to rules and procedures Approach:
Research what’s being done elsewhere – not necessarily looking to reinvent the wheel
Identify desired elements of methodology
Develop methodology for testing
Final recommendations
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Sources
State Statutes
Administrative Rules
Special Management Areas
Compacts and their accounting methods
Result = No “off-the-shelf” solution
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Flexible time period – reflect cyclical nature of water budget
Reflect seasonal variations Independently accounts for SW/GW use and supply Considers variation in water supply from year to
year Consumptive/Non-consumptive use Utilize existing datasets when possible Consider impacts of conservation practices
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Methodology for Testing Supply - Virgin Natural Flow Hydrograph for Supply
Demand - Identify SW and GW consumptive and non-consumptive uses
SW/GW Integration - Best available technology for SW-GW interaction (analytic, numerical modeling, etc.)
Flexibility in tools for analysis Applications to Upper Niobrara, Lower Platte
River, and full Platte River basin
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Supply Demand Evaluation
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Virgin Flow Hydrograph
Estimate of streamflow hydrograph “undepleted by activities of man”
Historic gaged flows + upstream consumptive uses:
Virgin Flow = Historic flow
+ historic SW CU
+ estimated GW depletions
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Historic Gage Flow
GW Depl
SW CU Virgin Flow
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What are ‘SW Consumptive Uses’?
Irrigation Canal Diversions
Individual irrigation appropriators
Reservoir evaporation
Municipal and Industrial
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Reservoir Storage
Account for change in storage in supply
For Lake McConaughy – account for change in storage AND total available storage in supply
=> accounts for carryover storage
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Discrete components of computed virgin natural flow provide insight into:
Relative magnitudes
Trends
Illustrates importance of key assumptions and areas of future refinements
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Statistical Analysis to select time periods for analysis
Kendal Tau
▪ Trends
Auto-Correlation
▪ Cycles
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Differentiate between SW and GW uses Represent discrete demands of each
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GROUND WATER DEMANDS
Ground water irrigation (CU) M & I wellfields (CU)
SURFACE WATER DEMANDS
Irrigation Canal Diversions (CU) Individual irrigation appropriators (CU) Hydropower (NonCU) Instream flow appropriations (NonCU) Reservoir evaporation (CU)
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Consumptive Use
Ground Water Irrigation
Surface Water Irrigation
Municipal and Industrial
Reservoir Evaporation
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Non-Consumptive Use
Hydro-Power – 3 scenarios
▪ No hydropower demand
▪ Full appropriation for hydropower
▪ Intermediate demand (historic flows, physical capacity, etc.) – case specific
Instream Flow Appropriations
▪ Appropriated right, capped to the flow available at the time of granting
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Representation of Downstream Demands
Use ratio of virgin natural flows to allocate downstream demands to upstream reach
Precipitation – adjusted crop irrigation requirements
Variations in climatic conditions can be reflected in demands
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Evaluation of GW demands using both depletions and consumptive use
Depletions illustrate historic usage impacts on current water supplies
Consumptive use illustrates current usage impacts (lag effect)
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Use of Surplus (Supply – Demand) as a metric
To retain the paired supply/demand for each year the surplus or deficit each year is calculated.
This surplus is then plotted for each year (arithmetic curve) in addition to being ranked and plotted using a frequency curve.
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Step 1 – Apply CU, Non-CU and Instream Flow Demands
Step 2 – Apply Demands of Step 1 less Instream Flows Step 3 – Instream Flow Test
Demands greater than Supply
Demand less than Supply
Demands greater than Supply
Demand less than Supply Current supply ≥
historic supply
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Not FA
FA
Current supply ≤ historic
supply
Not FA Further Analysis Required
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Instream Flow Test Statute ties appropriation to that available at time
of granting.
Two time periods (chosen by statistical analysis) ▪ 1) Analysis Period Prior to Water Right Issued ▪ Corrections made to account for level of development at time
water right issued.
▪ 2) Current Analysis Period ▪ Correction made to account for current level of depletions.
Lesser of adjusted flows (“reasonably expected”) or instream flow appropriation.
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Level of GWCU at time water right issued
GW Depletions prior to water right issued
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Level of Depletions Today
GW Depletions during current analysis period
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Lesser of Historic Flow and Instream Flow Appropriation
Full Instream Flow Appropriation
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Lesser of Historic Flow and Instream Flow Appropriation
Shift-subtract off ∆ of CU at time of granting (account for development)
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Lesser of Historic Flow and Instream Flow Appropriation (Current Analysis Period)
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Lesser of Historic Flow and Instream Flow Appropriation (Current Analysis Period)
Shift - subtract off ∆ of current depletions (account for current depletions)
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Historic flows comparison
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Adjusted flows comparison
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Step 1 – Apply CU, Non-CU and Instream Flow Demands
Step 2 – Apply Demands of Step 1 less Instream Flows Step 3 – Instream Flow Test
Demands greater than Supply
Demand less than Supply
Demands greater than Supply
Demand less than Supply Current supply ≥
historic supply
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Not FA
FA
Current supply ≤ historic
supply
Not FA Further Analysis Required
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Virgin natural flow hydrograph Statistical testing of virgin natural flow Discrete components of supply and demand Use of reservoir total and change in storage Consumptive use demands Non-consumptive uses (hydropower and
instream flows) Consider GW depletion and full consumptive use Consideration of downstream demands Use of surplus (supply-demand) as a metric Three-step analysis in determining basin status Instream flow erosion test
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Incorporation of Platte River Basin analysis and Final Recommendations into Final Technical Memorandum
DNR begin the rulemaking process
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Questions?
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