Presentation on “Climate Mitigation and Adaptation in Bangladesh”

BANGLADESH CENTRE FOR ADVANCED STUDIES House # 10, Road # 16A, Gulshan- 1, Dhaka- 1212, Bangladesh Phone: (+880-2) 8857593, 8852614, 8852904; Fax: (+880-2) 8851417 E-mail: info@bcas.net; Website: www.bcas.net

Dr. Atiq Rahman Executive Director:

Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies (BCAS)

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Nansen Centers 25 years Colloquium in honour of Fridtjof Nansens 150 years

anniversary at VilVite Conference Center, Thormøhlens gate 51, Bergen

Friday 18 November 2011

Outline of the discussion

ó Geographical location and vulnerability context ó Climate Change Impacts: Bangladesh Case

Study ó Development Climate Change Linkages ó Climate Change, Poverty and MDGs Linkages ó Climate smart adaptation ó Climate Change, Disaster and Displacement ó Government of Bangladesh’s response ó Community Based Adaptation ó Concluding Remarks

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Relief Map of South Asia http://www.flickr.com/photos/ocean_of_stars/2785428699/sizes/o/in/photostream/

Nepal

India

Myanmar

Pakistan

The variability of onset, breaks and duration of the summer monsoon have enormous effects on water resources, agriculture, economics, ecosystems, and human mortality throughout South Asia and Bangladesh as well.

Location of Bangladesh in relation to major river basins in South Asia

Climate Change Impacts: Context of Bangladesh

ó The very geophysical location makes the country most vulnerable to climate change Impacts ó Himalayans in the north ó Sea (the Bay of Bengal) in the south with long coast ó Vast deltaic floodplain and riverine Charland

ó Large population with low resources base ó Wide spread poverty, malnutrition and food insecurity ó Frequent nature and man-made disasters ó Poor governance and institutional weakness ó Climate change is additional threat to: ó Overall development of the country ó Poverty alleviation and livelihood promotion ó Sectoral development (agriculture, water, health etc.) ó Infrastructure and rural development ó Disaster preparedness and risk reduction

Bangladesh at the lower end of Himalayan River Systems

vBangladesh is at the lower end of the Himalayan drainage ecosystem;

vComprises only 8 percent of the GBM system and carry about 92 percent of water flow;

vAverage monsoon flow varies from 80,000 to 140,000 cubic meter/sec

vCarries 1.4-2.5 billion tons of sediment to the Bay of Bengal

Location of the Bangladesh in South Asia

The Complex River Systems

1. Unique geographical location 2. Dominance of flood plain 3. Himalayan drainage eco-system

Water Tower

Water Sink 8

Vulnerability to Extreme Climatic Events: BANGLADESH CASE STUDY

1. Sea Level Rise 2. Increase of cyclone (Intensity & Frequency) 3. Enhanced intrusion of salt water 4. Increased flood (Intensity & Frequency) 5. Drought 6. River Bank Erosion 7. Erratic Rainfall

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7 major region based impacts

These above impacts combined to create 4 generic impacts

8. Food security 9. Water security 10. Health impacts 11. Displacement and migration

Sea

Leve

l Ris

e 10

Vulnerability to Extreme Climate Events: Bangladesh case study

Cyclone

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Err

atic

Rai

nfal

l

12

Flood

Flood 2004

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Flood

Flooded Area

Return period (Years)

2 5 10 20 25 50 100

Area affected %

20 30 37 43 52 60 70

Last 30 years

5 3 2 2

Last 10 years

3 2 1 1

Inundated Area during Different Floods and Number of Occurrences in Last 30 Years

For Example: A flood event with return period of 20 years has already occurred twice during the last 10 years.

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Riv

er B

ank

Ero

sion

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EXISTING DROUGHT SITUATION, AND DROUGHT SITUATION IN THE YEARS 2030 & 2075

EXISTING DROUGHT

DROUGHT CLASSES (RABI SEASON)

Very Severe Drought Severe Drought Moderate Drought Less Moderate Drought Slight Drought

Very Slight to Nil Severe & Moderate Moderate & Less Moderate Sunderbans Forest

ADDITIONAL DROUGHT PRONE AREAS IN 2030

ADDITIONAL DROUGHT PRONE AREAS IN 2075

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Health

Source: IPCC AR4, 2007 17

Food Security

n About 2.5 to 10% decrease in crop yield in 2020 and 5 to 30% by 2050 compared with 1990 CO2 levels

n Decrease production of livestock, n Increase of pest attack n Decrease production of fisheries

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CC-WatSan-Health-Livelihood-Poverty

60-70% global impacts of climate change can be reflected in water. This is: a. Too much water b. Too little water c. Wrong type of water d. Wrong timing of water

CC Health Livelihood

WatSan

Poverty

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Bangladesh: Major Concerns

óWater Security ó Food Security ó Livelihood Security ó Health Security ó Energy Security qALL ARE LINKED WITH POVERTY qEACH AFFECTED BY CLIMATE CHANGE

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POVERTY-CLIMATE CHANGE LINKAGES

Too much water Too little water Wrong type of water

Wrong timing of water

• Destroy sanitation system

•Water pollution through pathogens • Mosquito breeding

• Poor sanitation • Saline water •Water polluted

with fecal coli form

• Water logging • Vector (Virus)

HEALTH HAZARD

POVERTY INCREASED

•Flooding •Damage to crop,

fisheries, LS

•No water for

Crop, fisheries, LS

•Reduce

production due to salinity

•Heavy rainfall in short

time cause damage to crop

• No rainfall during seedling, transplantation,

tillering, pinnacle initiation stage

LOSS OF LIVELIHOOD

POVERTY INCREASED

Food Security

& Health

Sanita- tion & Health

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Climate Change, Poverty and MDGs Linkages

Clim

ate Change Signal

Source: Saleem et al.., 2006

Poverty Alleviatio

n/M

DG

s Temperature (e.g. heat waves)

Hydrology (e.g. Floods & Droughts)

Extreme Events

(e.g. Cyclone &

Hurricanes)

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= å ò

X ò X ò

Intensity of Event

Baseline Conditions

Adaptive Capacity

Impact Event

Impact-Vulnerability-Adaptation: Relationship

WHY POVERTY IS A CONCERN?

“Cyclone is not the only disaster – poverty is the main disaster” ……..

…….Dr. M. Yunus, (Cyclone 91, BCAS)

Time (Year)

$ (D E V)

DISASTER/HEALTH

HAZARD

Time (Year)

$ (D E V)

Schematic Diagram Showing Severe Impact of Disaster and Health Hazards on Poverty and SD

HOUSEHOLD LIFE PERIOD/YEARS

WE

LL-B

EIN

G IN

DE

X

POVERTY LINE

PROGRESSION OF HOUSEHOLD WELL-BEING

DISASTER

HEALTH

HAZARD

OUTPUT

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Development over time in Climate Change Impacted scenario and Adaptation Achievements

Dividend in climate smart development

Deve

lopm

ent ($

)

Climate impacted development loss

Climate smart adaptation benefits

Time (t) years

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Key Components of Sustainable Development

Economic growth [goods & services]

Environment [integrity & sustainability]

Society [Justice & Access]

Climate Change Science and Sustainable Development Linkage

Climate Change regional and global policy implications

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Climate Change Development

Disasters

Displacement

Displacement potential and future strategies Reluctance to Move q Very few want to move from their own

homestead;

Move to Proximate Cities q First move to adjacent urban centres

(social network,, food habits, language (dialect) familiarity

Move to Megacities q National cities/megacities (mostly in

slums)

Move to Abroad (limited) q International migration

Mass migration q Who goes where????

Strategic Preference of Displacement

Clim

ate I

mpa

cted

Disp

lacem

ent D

ecisi

on

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Bangladesh Response to Climate Change

NAPA BCCSAP

Government of Bangladesh’s response

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Government of Bangladesh’s response Two funds created

vBangladesh Climate Change Trust Fund $200 million GoB own fund and programs

are being implemented by GoB agencies vBangladesh Climate Resilience Fund-

$120 million from development partners managed by World bank

National Action Plan on Adaptation (NAPA), Bangladesh

ó NAPA serves as simplified and direct channels of communication for information relating to the urgent and immediate adaptation needs to climate change.

ó NAPA has been prepared by the Ministry of

Environment and Forests as a response to the decision of the COP7 of the UNFCCC.

The Outcomes of NAPA vPreparation and approval of NAPA with

identification of Priority Areas (November 2005) vAgreement on 15 Project Ideas as Immediate and

Urgent needs vSubmission to UNFCCC

Bangladesh Climate Change and Strategy Action Plan (BCCSAP) qOnly the last step in a long journey – Since 1998 various studies, modeling, Bangladesh in IPCC qBangladesh in global negotiations; NAPA & BAP

submission by Bangladesh all contributed to the Strategy formulation and Action Plan q Basic principles of Strategy q Four securities inviolate – Food – Water – Energy and – Livelihood (including health) qAll four Bali elements – adaptation, mitigation, technology

transfer and finance to be addressed • Integral part of development process, poverty reduction

and employment generation qCommensurate institutional and human capacity

development

SIX PILLARS of Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan (BCCSAP)

(1) Food Security, Social Protection and Health; (2) Comprehensive Disaster Management; (3) Infrastructure Development; (4) Research and Knowledge Management; (5) Mitigation and low-carbon development; and (6) Capacity Building and Institutional Development The Action Plan consists of 44 programs and 145 projects for

implementation within the time period of 2009-2018. BCCSAP will be an integral part of national development policies, plans and programs.

PEOPLE’S ADAPTATION ADAPTATION IS HAPPENING

qClimate Change is here and now.

qCommunities across the world facing impacts and adapting.

qSome are adapting in the fullest knowledge of CC impacts

qOthers are adapting intuitively/experientially

Peo

ple

s resp

on

se

BCAS with IIED has organized five world conference on community based adaptation (CBAs)

oSharing of experiences of CBAS by scientists, practitioners and policy makers

o Emergence of a science of CBA

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Community Based Adaptation

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o Increasing sectoral and integrated CBA approaches o CBA 4 Dar es Salam, Tanzania, November 2009-CBA in

Africa o CBA 5 Dhaka, Bangladesh March 2011-Beyond pilots o CBA 6- April 2012 Vietnam-communicating CBA

Peoples response

350 international Participants to the 5th International Conference on CBA (Community Based Adaptation ) visited sites in March 2011

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CONCLUDING REMARKS

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CRITICAL ISSUES- 1 vMitigation must, adaptation too vImplementing principle of “common but

differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities” vBali Action Plan

oMitigation oAdaptation oFinancing and oTechnology transfer

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vCOP 15 Copenhagen 2009-”Hopenhagen” to “Brokenhaven!!!” vCOP 17, Durban, the burial of Kyoto Protocol vTomorrows world: enhanced disasters and

extreme events vPoorest will be hardest hit, rich keep on

emitting vWho will reduce emission, when???

CRITICAL ISSUES- 2

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vAnnex 1 countries paralyzed by economic crisis and financial mismanagement vGlobal leaders incapacitated vClimate change impacts more visible vCC the greatest injustice in human history

CRITICAL ISSUES- 3

Source: Char Livelihood Program of DFID

Raised Plinth Height

Hom

este

ad G

arde

n on

Ra

ised

Plin

th

Raised Plinth of Toilet

Livestock During Flood

Raising Plinth

Preservation of Household Assets Over False Ceiling

Storage of Food during Flood

Storage of Safe Drinking Water & Dry Food

Community based rain water harvesting

Household based rain water harvesting

Floating Garden During Flood

Locally Known as Baira Cultivation

Raised Tube Well

Store Extra Furnace

Protecting from Erosion

Protecting Income Generating Activity

Water Collection in Hilly Region

Community People Using the Water of Re-excavated Pond

Pond Sand Filter

Household Based Rain Water Harvesting in Drought Prone Area

Drip Irrigation

Household Based Irrigation Farming

Crab Farming in Saline Water

Saline Tolerant Rice

Chickpeas in Drought Area

Seed storage system/seed bank

Adjustment in Cropping pattern Hanging Nursery

Making Soil heap

Local Adaptation Practices in Nepal

THANK YOU

WAY FORWARD

ó Things are happening ó Cooperation in Action óWater-Energy Security Nexus ó Climate Change: An Emerging Threat for South Asia

THANK YOU

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