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2013 -2014 Seasonal Rainfall Performance and Outlook

Rainfall Summary

Analysis of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) satellite-

derived rainfall estimates suggests that by the end of the second dekad ( third week)

of November 2013, most areas in Namibia had not yet experienced substantive rains

(Figure 1). This is supported by available rainfall station records from the Namibia

Meteorological Services which shows little or no rainfall over most areas of the

country. Station rainfall data, recorded by Namibia Meteorological Services, show

significant rainfall having been received at Katima Mulilo 25 mm, Rundu 38.6 mm

Grootfontein 17.8 mm and Ondangwa 36.7 mm between the October-November

2013 period. These rainfall amounts are above what was recorded same time last

year. However, the amounts received remain below the stations’ normal rainfall

(Figures 2). Only Ondangwa received rainfall slightly above its normal rainfall of 35.6

mm. However, these rainfall amounts were very low to trigger farming activities.

The onset of the 2013/2014 rainfall season has been delayed in the northern areas

where the season usually starts in October. By the third week of November, Rundu

and Grootfontein had recorded a 2-week delay while Katima Mulilo and Ondangwa

recorded a week’s delay. This may result in a shorter season if the rains end at the

normal time.

This report is a dry run of the food

security updates that will be regularly

produced every quarter once the

monitoring system is launched early next

year. The food security monitoring

system will monitor a set of key food

security indicators that include:

Food market prices (monitor price

fluctuations and household food access

of key staple commodities)

Informal Cross border Monitoring

(monitor volumes of trade involved and

food items being traded to and from

neighbouring countries)

Food consumption patterns (monitor

dietary diversity and intake)

Incomes (monitor the sources of the

monetary payment received for goods or

services and their levels in order to

determine household food access)

Coping strategies (monitor efforts,

(means and ways households/

communities use in order to survive

when faced with food shortages)

Programme interventions (monitor the

number and type of responses being

implemented and the number of

beneficiaries for each programme)

This dry run report is based on the

secondary information gathered from

food security stakeholders.

ISSUE NO: DRY RUN UPDATED FOR SEPTEMBER - NOVEMBER 2013

Namibia Food

Security Monitoring

Food Distribution - Omusati (Photo/WFP)

Republic of Namibia

Highlights

The food security situation continues to

deteriorate with the number of people

requiring food assistance increasing as the

lean season approaches. The government is

targeting a total of 755,000 people for food

assistance until March 2014.

The delayed start of season in the north will

have significant impact on the production

Table of Contents:

Page 1: 2013 - 2014 Seasonal rainfall

Performance and outlook

Page 2: Preparations for the 2013-14

Agricultural Season

Page 2: Food security & Nutrition Update

Page 3: Market Prices and Trend

Page 4: Implications on food Security

Conditions

of early greens that households usually consume before harvesting, prolonging the

lean season and dependency on drought relief and other external assistance.

The monthly average maize prices per kg (September, October and November) are

lower this year compared to the same time last year in most of the regional markets.

Reasons for these lower prices although not yet fully established could be linked to

increased household food access through drought relief programmes resulting in

reduced market purchases forcing prices to reduce due to low demand.

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Rainfall

Figure 1 NOAA satellite-derived rainfall estimates

as at the 20th November 2013 (Image extracted

from Africa Risk View (ARC).

Rainfall outlook

In its annual seasonal rainfall outlook

issued in September 2013, the Namibia

Meteorological Services (November

2013 to January 2014) predicted normal

to above normal conditions over the

north-eastern parts of the country

covering the Zambezi and Kavango

regions as well as parts of the northern

regions including Ohangwena, Oshana,

northern parts of Oshikoto, eastern

parts of Omusati region, and northern

parts of Otjozondjupa region. A forecast

of normal to below normal was issued

for the rest of the country.

For the January to March 2014 period, a

forecast of normal to above normal is

expected over the Coastal areas while

normal to below conditions are

expected for the rest of the country.

The regional rainfall outlook for the

Period 22nd

November to 7th

December

2013 predicts more rains in

neighbouring countries upstream which

could lead to possible flooding

downstream – a cause for concern for

northern and northeastern Namibia

especially the Zambezi region.

Preparations for the 2013-2014

Agricultural Season

Free seed distributions in preparations

for the 2013/14 agricultural season

commenced with the Namibian

Government distributing approximately

200 MT of pearl millet seed to

vulnerable households across the

country. Additionally, procurement of

200 MT of certified maize seed is in the

pipeline.

Government’s efforts to distribute seeds

have been complemented by partners

such as the Red Cross Society which has

procured 200 MT of small grains to be

distributed in the northern regions.

Food Agriculture Organisation (FAO) has

earmarked USD 500,000 for provision of

seeds for emergency support to 54,940

small-scale vulnerable farmers affected

by drought in Kavango, Oshikoto,

Ohangwena, Omusati, Kunene, Oshana

and Zambezi. The seed perks will

include 6 kgs of pearl millet seed and 2

kgs of cowpea seed.

The United States Agency for

International Development (USAID) has

an on-going programme to support

conservation and agriculture in

Kavango, Kunene, Ohangwena and

Oshikoto regions through the

Cooperative League of the United States

of America (CLUSA).

Although farming inputs are reportedly

readily available on local markets,

access to inputs will remain a challenge

for the very poor and under resourced

households due to prohibitive input prices.

A nationwide assessment on the

preparations of the upcoming season is

underway, and is being led by the National

Early Warning Unit under Ministry of

Agriculture, Water and Forestry. The

objective of this assessment is to find out

the status of the preparations of the

2013/14 season. Findings from this

assessment will provide more detail on the

state of the agricultural preparations and

seed availability in local markets.

Food Security and Nutrition Update

The food security situation continues to

deteriorate with the number of people

requiring food assistance increasing as the

lean season approaches. A total of 755,000

people are being targeted for food

assistance until March 2014.

Food Availability

Food availability addresses the “supply

side” of food security and is determined by

the level of food production, stock levels

and net trade (imports). Food supplies in

local markets remain adequate with most

retail shops being adequately stocked.

Available statistics shows an upward trend

in white maize production (both dry-land

and irrigated crop) marketed locally (sold

to millers or to government silos), with

2011/12 and 2012/13 marketing years

showing production levels of 63,228 and

72,438 metric tonnes respectively.

However local production is still

insufficient to satisfy local demand and is

therefore being supplemented by

commercial grain imports.

Figure 2 October –November Rainfall compared to last year and to normal (source: Namibia Meteorological

Services)

Warehouse - Hadarp (Photo/DDRM)

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Response Programme

Implementing Agency

Target beneficiaries

Target regions

Drought Relief OPM-DDRM 755,000 People

All 14 regions

Drought Relief CARITAS 96,050 People *

12 regions except Khomas and

Erongo Regions

Soup Kitchens NRCS, CCN 12,320 Beneficiaries

CCN (All regions) & NRCS (Kunene, Ohangwena, Kavango and Oshikoto)

Cash Transfers LWF 4,800 Beneficiaries

4 regions (Hardap, Kunene, Omusati and Kavango)

School Feeding

Ministry of Education

15,000 school children

**

All 14 regions

Market Prices and Trend

Monitoring of prices provides an indication of

household affordability given its income levels.

Any food price increases can actually limit

access of households to food commodities

thereby compromising households’ food

security.

The three-month-average price per kilogram

for maize meal in 8 regional markets

(Swakopmund, Gobabis, Keetmanshoop,

Mariental, Windhoek, Katima, Otjiwarongo and

Oshakati) showed lower prices for the

September- November period compared to

same period last year (Figure 4a ). However, the

price average is very close to the same period

last year at Mariental and above last year at

Katima Mulilo. Reasons for these lower prices

although not yet fully established could be

linked to increased household food access

through drought relief programmes resulting in

reduced demand for market purchases.

Typically in drought years market purchases are

expected to increase resulting in price

increases. However in Namibia, despite being a

drought year, prices are below last year’s levels

indicative of low demand on the markets.

Maize stocks in the national silos stand

at 10,000 metric. This amount has

been procured by the Office of The

Prime Minister for drought relief.

A 55 percent decline in Mahangu/Pearl

millet production was recorded this

marketing year. Therefore there is

need to promote small grain

production this growing season.

Food Access

In simple terms “food access” is

defined as having sufficient

resources/means to obtain

appropriate foods for a nutritious diet.

The number of people accessing food

through food assistance has increased

significantly since May 2013 as

government intensifies its efforts to

feed those in need through its drought

relief scheme. The government has

distributed a total of 54,038 metric

tonnes of maize meal to 755,000

beneficiaries per month since August

onwards in 14 regions. The

government has procured additional

21,175 metric tonnes of maize meal to

last until December 2013 for all 14

regions. Other commodities

distributed include dried fish, canned

beef, canned beans, fresh beef and

game meat.

Interventions such as soup kitchens,

cash transfers and school feeding

programmes have complemented the

drought relief response and a

breakdown of beneficiaries by

programme is presented in Table 1.

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

Maize production marketed (mt)

Figure 3 Maize production marketed 200/1 to 2012/13 marketing years (source: NAB)

Table 1. Drought Relief programmes and number of beneficiaries

*CARITAS is only operational in 11 regions (Kunene, Omusati, Oshana, Ohangwena, Oshikoto, Omaheke,

Kavango East, Kavango west, Zambezi, Hardap, and //Karas).

**Current school feeding supports 300,000 primary school children. The 15,000 school children are additional

due to drought.

A price trend analysis show maize meal trading at

much higher prices in the south compared to the

central and northern regions. Figure 4b shows

the monthly price variation at Keetmanshoop

(South), Otjiwarongo (Central) and Oshakati

(north).

Figure 4a: Average maize meal price in N$ per Kg in selected regional

markets (Source National Statistics Agency)

Figure 4b: The monthly price variation at Keetmanshoop (South),

Otjiwarongo (Central) and Oshakati (north).

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Contributing Partners:

National Agronomic board

National Statistics Agency

Council of Churches in Namibia

Namibia Red Cross Society

UN Country Team

Ministry of Health and Social Services

Ministry of Agriculture,

Water and Forestry

Directorate of Disaster Risk

Management (DDRM)

Water and Sanitation

Lack of safe drinking water and

sanitation impact negatively on access

to proper nutrition and food security.

Open defecation, poor sanitation

facilities and improper waste disposal

contaminate food in many communities.

At the same time, unsafe drinking water

and poor hygiene frequently lead to

increases in diarrheal diseases,

rendering efforts to improve nutrition

ineffective.

In May 2013, the EFSA found out that

28.6 percent of unprotected wells and

26.5 percent of boreholes were affected

by drought due to low water levels. The

situation has since worsened as more

wells and boreholes have since run dry

as the drought intensifies – a situation

attributable to continued depletion of

underground water. As a result drinking

water for both human and livestock is

increasingly becoming scarce especially

in the drought stricken areas. Drilling of

new boreholes meant to alleviate the

problem is at a slow pace- only 141 out

of the planned 339 boreholes have been

drilled by November 2013. This is due to

low capacity on the government side.

Sanitation, a measure factor of food

utilization, has seen no major

improvements since the EFSA in May

2013. About 75 percent of the sampled

households were estimated to have

been using bush or fields as latrines

countrywide. To address this imbalance,

programmes to distribute water

treatment tablets, water container and

hygiene kits have been implemented.

Awareness campaigns are being

undertaken at community level through

NRC’s volunteers with support from

UNICEF. The impact of these

interventions is yet to be assessed.

Implications on Food Security

Conditions

The delayed start of season in the north

will have significant impact on the

production of early greens that

households usually consume before

harvesting, prolonging the lean season

and dependency on drought relief and

other external assistance. This could in

turn require review of existing drought

relief plans as the numbers of

beneficiaries may continue to increase

beyond targeted levels. On the other

hand the regional satellite-derived

rainfall estimates depicts substantial

amounts of rainfall being received up

north in Angola and Zambia. This could

result into downstream flooding in the

Zambezi, Kavango and Cuvelai basins in

the north-east and north-central

regions. Flooding could further strain

the ailing livelihoods in these regions

and worsen food insecurity. The

situation needs close monitoring and

setting up mechanisms for early

response.

The prediction of below-normal rains

during the second half of the season

(January to March) for the rest of the

country, except the coastal areas, will

most likely lead to the deterioration of

pasture conditions and drinking water,

worsening food insecurity conditions from

January onwards. As a result, animal

conditions are likely to deteriorate further

leading to unfair terms of trade for

livestock and low milk production.

Furthermore, despite the current

marketing incentives set by government

for farmers to destock, the uptake of the

programme is very low and this could

have serious consequences if the drought

conditions extend into the 2013-14

agricultural season.

Timely distribution of seeds in

preparation for the upcoming planting

season is vital at this point in time in order

to ensure good harvests next year. This in

turn will increase availability of food from

own production at household level – all

factors being favorable.

A significant proportion of people

continue to have access to income

through pensions and other social grants

(Emergency Food Security Assessment

May 2013) that improve significantly their

food security conditions. Remittances

continue to play a pivotal role in

stabilizing food security conditions for

some households with relatives

employed within and outside the country.

Nutrition

A total of 778 admissions of

malnourished children under five and a

total of 119 deaths (15% mortality) have

been recorded between January and July

2013 across the country. The cause of

this mortality is yet to be ascertained.

The Ministry of Health and Social Services

(MoHSS) supported by UNICEF, Centre for

Disease Control (CDC) and the Global

Fund (GF) is managing and treating acute

malnutrition.

The Namibia Red Cross Society (NRCS)

and faith based organizations are

currently engaged in home based care

including monitoring nutrition status and

referrals to Hospitals and Clinics for

management of malnutrition.

Borehole water - Kunene (Photo/DDRM)

Soup Kitchens - sesfontein (Photo/DDRM)