Name Here ISA Region Report South America July 2015 Edition.

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ISA Region Report

South America

July 2015 Edition

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Table of Contents

• Recent Political Events

• Recent Economic Events

• Other Recent Events

Current Events: Economic Outlook: • Economic Overview• GDP Growth Forecasts• Keys to Regional Economic Growth• Inflation Forecasts• Regional Exchange Rate Forecasts• Labor Force Overview• Foreign Investment Outlook• Key Regional Economic Issues• Regional Economic Risk Outlook

• Regional Political Overview• Recent Elections or Government Changes• Upcoming Elections• Key Regional Disputes or Conflicts• Potential Conflicts• Regional Military Outlook• Key Regional Political Issues• Regional Political Risk Outlook

Political Outlook:

• Population Overview

• Population Characteristics• Development of Leading Urban Centers• Key Demographic Issues• Key Environmental Issues• Regional Demographic and Environmental Risk Outlook

Demographic & Environmental Outlook:

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Current Events and Recent Changes Overview

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South America: Recent Political Events and Changes

• The Colombian government and the FARC rebels agreed to establish a truth commission if the two sides are able to reach a comprehensive peace deal. However, fighting between the two sides continued in many areas of the country, threatening Colombia’s peace process.

• Venezuela’s electoral authority announced that the country’s next parliamentary elections would take place in December 2015. The political opposition had feared that these elections would be cancelled due to the sharp drop in support for President Nicolas Maduro’s government.

• Officials from the United States and Venezuela met in Haiti in a bid to improve the bilateral relations between the two rivals.

• Venezuela’s territorial dispute with Guyana resurfaced in mid-2015 after oil exploration began in Guyanese waters that are claimed by Venezuela.

Key Political Events and Changes:

• With an economy that is in the midst of a severe downturn and with the Petrobras scandal continuing to widen, Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff has seen her support levels fall dramatically over the past year. In recent polls, only 10% of Brazilian voters approved of the job that President Rousseff and her government were doing, while 75% of voters thought that she was doing a poor job.

• Polls taken in Argentina showed that Buenos Aires Governor Daniel Scioli had the support of 33% of voters ahead of October 2015’s presidential election. He was followed closely by Buenos Aires Mayor Mauricio Macri (32%) and Sergio Massa (14%). Meanwhile, rumors circulated that Mr. Macri and Mr. Massa would form an alliance, with Mr. Massa withdrawing from the election to back Mr. Massa.

• The United States designated Peru’s far-left Shining Path rebel group as “drug traffickers”.

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South America: Recent Economic Events and Changes

• Brazil’s economy contracted by 1.6% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2015 as the country’s economic downturn continued to worsen in early 2015. This slump was the result of a weak consumer sector, low commodity prices and lower levels of business and investor confidence in Brazil.

• Economic growth in Chile accelerated to 2.4% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2015, easily beating expectations. Domestic consumption rose for the first time since 2013 in the first three months of this year.

• GDP growth in Colombia slowed to 2.8% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2015 as natural resource prices continued to fall. This was nevertheless a better performance than that of Latin America’s other large economies.

• Peru’s economic growth rate was just 1.7% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2015, continuing a recent run of poor economic results.

• In Peru, the Congress approved granting President Ollanta Humala special powers to enact economic reforms in order to improve Peru’s economic competitiveness.

Key Economic Events and Changes:

• Debt levels in Argentina rose sharply in the first half of 2015 due to a surge in government spending during that period.

• Transport unions held a series of strikes in Argentina to protest against high taxes and inflation. These strikes caused major disruptions to the country’s transportation infrastructure.

• Argentina and Uruguay reached a deal to conduct bilateral trade in their local currencies, instead of the US dollar.

• Uruguay’s economic growth rate accelerated to 4.0% year-on-year in the first quarter of this year.

• Paraguay’s GDP growth rate slowed to 4.2% year-on-year in the first quarter of this year.

• In Bolivia, new discoveries of oil reserves tripled that country’s known oil reserves.

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South America: Other Recent Events and Changes

• Officials from Brazil, Peru and China met to launch a study on the feasibility of the construction of a railway through the Amazon Rainforest that would connect Peru’s Pacific Coast with Brazil’s Atlantic Coast.

• Chile’s capital city, Santiago, declared an environmental emergency as a result of the high levels of smog over the city.

• Chile hosted the Copa America football (soccer) tournament, the latest football event in the Western Hemisphere.

• Paraguay ended the diplomatic immunity that it had granted to Conmebol, South American football’s (soccer’s) governing body. This move was made in the wake of the massive corruption scandal at FIFA, world football’s governing body.

Other Key Events and Changes:

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Regional Political Outlook

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Brazil: Most Recent ElectionsPresidential and Congressional Elections – October 2014

Presidential Election Results: Parliamentary Election Results:

Despite a weak economy and a number of corruption scandals, President Dilma Rousseff was able to win a second term in office, narrowly defeating her center-right

rival, Aecio Neves. President Rousseff’s center-left coalition also maintained its majorities in both houses of the Brazilian parliament.

Source: National election authority

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Bolivia: Most Recent ElectionsPresidential and Parliamentary Elections – October 2014

Presidential Election Results: Parliamentary Election Results:

President Evo Morales easily won a third term in office in October 2014’s presidential election, winning 61% of the vote. Moreover, his Movement for Socialism (MAS) party

retained their total control of the parliament in these elections.


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Colombia: Most Recent ElectionsPresidential Election – May and June 2014

The 2014 presidential election was dominated by the issue of the government’s peace talks with the FARC rebels.• Former President Alvaro Uribe was staunchly opposed to these peace talks and gave his backing to opposition candidate Oscar Ivan Zuluaga.

No candidate won the 50% of the vote require to avoid a run-off election in the first round of voting in Colombia’s presidential election in May 2014. • Surprisingly, President Santos finished only in second place with 25.6% of the vote. • The first place finisher in the first round of voting was another center-right candidate, Oscar Ivan Zuluaga, who won 29.3% of the vote. • Mr. Zuluaga was opposed to the government’s peace talks with the FARC rebels.

In the second round of voting in Colombia’s presidential election in June 2014, President Santos won a narrow victory. • President Santos won 51.0% of the vote, while Mr. Zuluaga won 45.0% of the vote.

Summary of the Last Elections: Results:


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Chile: Most Recent ElectionsPresidential Election – November and December 2013

As expected, former center-left President Michelle Bachelet easily won the recent run-off presidential election in Chile, returning to power after four years out of office. • After winning just under the 50% of the vote required to win the election outright in the first round of voting, Ms. Bachelet soundly defeated her center-right rival, Evelyn Matthei, by the wide margin of 62.2% to 37.8% in the second round of voting. • This, combined with the victory of President-elect Bachelet’s center-left alliance’s in the recent parliamentary elections in Chile, will result in a significant shift to the left for Chilean politics over the next four years.

Throughout the election campaign, Ms. Bachelet promised to introduce a series of major reforms for Chile’s economic, political and education systems.• One of the most controversial reforms involved raising taxes in order to provide free university education.• In addition, she has called for major wealth redistribution programs to reduce the level of wealth disparity in Chile.

Chile’s brief rule by the center-right came to an end in 2013 as the political left continues to enjoy more support than the political right in Chile.


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Chile: Most Recent ElectionsParliamentary Elections – November 2013

Chamber of Deputies Results: Senate Results:

In addition to the presidency, the political left swept the elections for both houses of the Chilean parliament in late 2013, giving the political left control of all levels of political

power in Chile.


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Paraguay: Most Recent ElectionsPresidential Elections – April 2013

Presidential Election Results:

Wealthy businessman Horacio Cartes won a clear victory in April 2013’s presidential election, returning the once-dominant Colorado Party to the presidency after a five-year interruption.• Mr. Cartes won 45.8% of the vote, more than had been predicted by pre-election polls.• The Liberal Party’s Efrain Alegre finished in second-place in this election with 36.9% of the vote.

The 2013 presidential election was a clear change of direction for Paraguayan politics after five years of leftist rule.• Among the changes that he proposed were greater independence for businesses in Paraguay and more for socially conservative policies.• Moreover, he vowed to restore relations with Paraguay’s neighbors that had been damaged by the impeachment of former President Fernando Lugo in 2012.


Summary:

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Venezuela: Most Recent ElectionsPresidential Election – April 2013

Interim President Nicolas Maduro won a much closer-than-expected victory in Venezuela’s presidential elections in April 2013 that were held following the death of President Hugo Chavez. • The fact that this election was so close has led to a significant increase in political tensions in Venezuela. • Moreover, President Maduro’s inability to win a comprehensive victory such as those won by his predecessor suggests that he will struggle to assert his authority over his country and dominate the political left as President Chavez did for more than 15 years.

President Maduro managed to defeat the center-right candidate Henrique Capriles by a margin of just 50.8% to 49.0%, a much closer result than polls had suggested. • Moreover, Mr. Capriles and his supporters rejected the result, claiming that the election was marred by widespread fraud and other irregularities. • This led to major protests by supporters of both candidates that led to violence in many areas of Venezuela.



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Ecuador: Most Recent ElectionsPresidential Election – February 2013

President Rafael Correa was re-elected for a third term in office in February 2013’s presidential election.• President Correa won the election outright in the first round of voting by winning nearly 57% of the popular vote.• President Correa faced seven challengers in this election, but none of them mounted a serious challenge to the popular left-wing president.• Businessman Guillermo Lasso finished in a distant second place in this election, winning just below 23% of the popular vote.

President Correa’s popularity remained very high at the time of the 2013 presidential election.• The president was widely credited with bringing political stability to what had been one of the most unstable countries in South America.• Furthermore, he continued to enjoying the overwhelming support of Ecuador’s poorer segments of society.



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Key Political Issue in South AmericaDealing With the Past

The legacy of dictatorships and politically-motivated violence continues to haunt most South American countries.• As much of this violence occurred in the past thirty years, it continues to have a major impact on contemporary politics.

Today, South American governments are becoming more confident in dealing with these past issues.• The popular will to come clean about the past has grown in recent years.• In many countries, the influence of the military has waned significantly in recent decades.

By dealing with their pasts, many South American countries are putting their democracies on firmer ground, despite growing despair with democracy in many of the region’s countries. As the “old guard” dies out or is imprisoned for past wrongs, a new

generation will be able to firmly entrench regional democracy.

ArgentinaThe government has lifted the immunity of

government and military leaders in the country’s “Dirty War”.

ChileNumerous members of the regime of former

dictator Augusto Pinochet are on trial for human rights abuses.

PeruThe government is pushing for the extradition

of ex-president Fujimori and has his former spymaster on trial.

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Potential Flashpoint: Northwestern South America

Colombia• Colombia has had success against leftist rebels in recent years, but it fears that support from left-wing governments could bolster the rebels.

Venezuela• The Venezuelan government has attempted to use his country’s oil income to fund left-wing groups throughout Latin America and to lessen US influence in the region.

Ecuador• Left-wing FARC rebels in Colombia have numerous bases in northern Ecuador.

United States• The US has backed Colombia in its disputes with its neighbors and provides significant military aid.

US Leadership in Latin America• Colombia is the US’ closest ally in South America at a time when its influence in that region is being contested by Venezuela, Brazil and even China.

Latin America’s Political Left• Venezuela has been at the forefront of Latin America’s leftwards political shift in recent years, using the country’s oil money to fund left-wing movements throughout the region.

Brazil as a Regional Power• Brazil projects itself as the new leading power in South America, but has refused to take sides in the ongoing dispute in northwestern South America.

Flashpoint Summary Main Actors Global Implications

• The increased presence of US military forces in Colombia deters any outright act of aggression by Venezuela, but arms and money continue to flow from Venezuela to the FARC and other leftist rebels in Colombia in a bid to weaken Colombia’s right-wing government.

• Clashes break out along the border of Colombia and Venezuela, prompted by leftist rebels in that region. The US and Brazil intervene to prevent an escalation into a full-blown military conflict, but arms spending soars in the region as a result. The US continues to increase its military presence in Colombia, increasing anti-US sentiment in the region.

Maps

Tensions between Colombia’s right-wing government and the left-wing governments of neighboring Venezuela and Ecuador have intensified in recent years. Colombia has accused Venezuela and Ecuador of sheltering and arming left-wing rebels in Colombia. In return, Venezuela claimed that Colombia and its giant ally, the United States, were preparing to overthrow the Venezuelan government after the decision to allow US armed forces to use bases inside Colombia.

These rising tensions have led to an arms race in the region, with Venezuela dramatically increasing its military spending, leading Colombia to strengthen its military ties with the United States.

Potential Outcomes

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South America: Political Risk Outlook

• Political risk levels across much of South America remain relatively low, but have grown in a number of countries over the past year.

• South America is largely immune from most of the global disputes, thus most of the current political risk comes from internal unrest.

• Northwestern South America has the highest rates of political risk, with Venezuela and Colombia having some of the world’s highest political risk levels.

Current Political Risk Ratings:

Low Risk………………High Risk

Political Risk Outlook:

• ISA Risk Ratings– 0.0 to 1.9 = Low Risk– 2.0 to 3.9 = Low to Moderate Risk– 4.0 to 5.9 = Moderate Risk– 6.0 to 7.9 = Moderate to High Risk– 8.0 to 10 = High Risk

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Regional Economic Outlook

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South American Economic Overview

Per Capita GDP at PPPA

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South America’s economic performance has been highly uneven in recent years.• The region’s largest economy, Brazil, has seen a number of ups and downs in recent years.• Hyperinflation has severely damaged the important Argentine and Venezuelan economies.• Natural resource exporters such as Peru and Chile have outperformed most other countries in the region thanks to soaring export demand in Asia.

Economic diversification and improved export competitiveness are the keys to South America’s economic future.• Brazil’s expanding oil and gas industry will help boost growth in the region’s largest economy.• However, the region’s manufacturing sector must expand and modernize in order for the region to attain more sustainable long-term growth.

South America’s economic future is dependent upon the development of new industrial and service sectors and an end to the reliance on raw material exports. Foreign

investment will be a key catalyst in this change, but continued regional stability is a must in order for this transformation to succeed.

Source: ISA Economic Forecasts,

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Northern South American Economic Growth Outlook

Economic growth rates in northern South America slowed significantly over the past three years as export demand slackened. While Colombia’s economy is expected to

rebound in the years ahead, its neighbor Venezuela is likely to experience much more economic turbulence.

Source: ISA Economic Forecasts, national statistics

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Central South American Economic Growth Outlook

Brazil accounts for more than half of South America’s total economic output. Brazil’s economy slowed sharply in recent years due to decline export competitiveness.

Meanwhile, Peru had experienced some of South America’s most steady economic growth over the past few years, until a sharp slowdown in 2014.


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Southern South American Economic Growth Outlook

Led by Argentina, southern South America recorded very high rates of economic growth prior to the recent downturn. However, the outlook for this region has

deteriorated as it loses export competitiveness and is forced to combat serious inflationary pressures.


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South American Economic Growth Summary

The economic crisis in the early years of this decade forced major policy changes

across the region.

Key Factors

Brazil accounts for 50% of regional economic output, so its performance

impacts the whole region.

Venezuela’s political unrest could cause another economic collapse in that region.

Growth in the mountain countries has been relatively robust in comparison to

the rest of the region.

South America continued to lag behind other

emerging regions in terms of growth, although some countries have performed

well.

Economic growth had been relatively strong in recent years before the 2009 economic downturn. Exports will be the key for future growth, as manufactured exports from

Brazil and Argentina find markets in North America and Europe, while natural resources from the region are in high demand in Asia.

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Northern South American Inflation Outlook

Inflation rates in northern South America will generally fall over the forecast period, though the potential for sudden spikes in the inflation rate will exist for all countries.

Venezuela is the notable exception, where the lifting of price controls is leading to higher inflationary pressures that could become hyper-inflationary.


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Central South American Inflation Outlook

Inflationary pressures resurfaced in central South America in recent years as food and energy prices rose sharply. These inflationary pressures will ease slightly later in the

forecast period.


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Southern South American Inflation Outlook

Southern South American inflation rose sharply in recent years, raising fears of 1980’s-style hyperinflation returning. Inflation will hold steady over the short-term as oil and

food prices remain high.


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South America Key Exchange Rates Against the US Dollar(1 US$ = Local Currency)

Source: ISA Economic Forecasts, OANDA

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Foreign Investments in South America

Foreign investment in South America has risen in recent years as a result of rising demand for the region’s natural resources by the large emerging markets of Asia.• Foreign investment in other sectors of South America’ economy has been more sporadic, apart from Brazil and Chile.• Nevertheless, manufacturing firms are taking a closer look at the region thanks to its recent run of strong economic growth.• If Brazil and other countries in the region continue to develop their domestic markets, foreign investment will become more diversified away from a dependence upon natural resources.

South America must achieve economic stability in order to attract significantly more foreign investment. Furthermore, the governments of the region must do more to

attract export-oriented foreign investment in order to compete with China and other emerging centers of foreign investment.

Source: UNCTAD

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Foreign Investment in Northern South America

Colombia has seen a surge in foreign investment in recent years, most of which has been directed at the country’s growing mining industry. Meanwhile, foreign investment

in Venezuela remains well below its potential thanks to the growing political mismanagement of that country’s economy.

Source: UNCTAD

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Foreign Investment in Central South America

Brazil is easily the largest recipient of foreign investment in South America. This trend will continue as Brazil’s manufacturing export sector develops further. Peru has the

potential for increased FDI thanks to a growing domestic market and continued demand for its natural resources.

Source: UNCTAD

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Foreign Investment in Southern South America

Foreign investment levels in southern South America have gradually risen in recent years, particularly in Chile. However, Argentina continues to struggle to attract foreign

investment in recent years.

Source: UNCTAD

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Regional Foreign Investment

Brazil is easily the largest recipient of foreign investment in South America, although its per capita FDI inflows are far below those of most other major emerging markets. Chile is the region’s second-largest recipient of foreign investment and leads the region by a

wide margin in terms of per capita FDI inflows.

Source: UNCTAD

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The Oil and Gas Industry in South America

The oil and gas industry will continue to be a leading recipient of foreign investment in South America.

• As North American demand continues to grow, further exploration and exploitation in South America will be needed.

At the moment, Venezuela is the dominant oil and gas producer in South America.

• The oil strike in late 2002 and early 2003 led to a serious decline in output there.

• Exploration activities in Colombia, Ecuador, Peru and Brazil will lead to increased output from these countries as well.

– It is unlikely, however, that these countries will become major oil and gas producers along the lines of Venezuela.

Venezuela’s continuing political instability will threaten further disruptions in South America’s oil and gas output. Furthermore, the oil and gas explorations in other

countries are all subject to political risk as well, as many potential fields are found in politically unstable regions.

0 2,500,000 5,000,000 7,500,000 10,000,000

Ecuador

Colombia

Argentina

Brazil

Canada

Venezuela

Mexico

USA

Oil Production in the Americas (bbl/day)

Source: EIA

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The Coffee Industry in South America

South America is the world’s leading coffee-growing region.

• Brazil and Colombia are the world’s two leading producers of coffee.

The decline in world coffee prices in recent years has had a major impact upon the industry in South America.

• In Colombia, many coffee growers have turned to drug production as coffee revenues have declined.

South America faces increasing competition from Asia.

• Countries such as Indonesia, Vietnam and India all are increasing their output.

South America will remain the world’s leading coffee producing region for some time, though Asia will continue to close the gap. The biggest risk is that increased global production will continue to drive coffee prices downwards, a trend that seems likely

given the expansion of coffee growing in other regions.

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000

Guatemala

Ethiopia

Uganda

India

Cote d'Ivoire

Mexico

Vietnam

Indonesia

Colombia

Brazil

Coffee Production by Country (bags)

Source: Commodityexpert

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Key Business Issue in South AmericaCorruption

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0

Ecuador

Venezuela

Paraguay

Bolivia

Argentina

Peru

Brazil

Colombia

Uruguay

Chile

Corruption Level Score (lower score = higher corruption)

Corruption remains a major problem for most South American countries.

• South America has higher levels of corruption than most other regions.

– It is on par with China in terms of corruption.

Chile has easily the lowest levels of corruption in South America.

• This has allowed Chile to be a leading recipient of foreign investment.

South America’s two largest economies, Brazil and Argentina both scored poorly.

• The countries of the interior scored worst of all, ranking among the world’s most corrupt countries.

In order to more effectively compete for foreign investment, South America must eliminate corruption. Chile is the perfect example of the potential stability and growth

the a low-corruption country can achieve.

Source: Transparency International

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South America: Economic Risk Outlook

• Economic risk levels in South America have fallen sharply over the past two years, although they remain high in a number of countries in the region.

• Political unrest and opposition to economic reform is threatening to raise risk levels across the region, as this would discourage much-needed foreign investment.

Current Economic Risk Ratings:


Economic Risk Outlook:


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Demographic and Environmental Outlook

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South America Population Trends

0

50,000,000

100,000,000

150,000,000

200,000,000

250,000,000

300,000,000

350,000,000

400,000,000

450,000,000

500,000,000

1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

Total Population

0

50,000,000

100,000,000

150,000,000

200,000,000

250,000,000

300,000,000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Working-Age Population

Working-Age Non-Working-Age

Unlike more developed regions of the world, South America’s working-age population will continue to grow as a percentage of total population until the 2020s. This will allow

the economies of the region to benefit from a larger pool of labor, provided that new jobs can be created.

Source: US Census Bureau


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South America Population Trends by Country

0

50,000,000

100,000,000

150,000,000

200,000,000

250,000,000

300,000,000

350,000,000

400,000,000

450,000,000

500,000,000

1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

Total Population

Brazil Colombia Argentina Peru

Venezuela Chile Ecuador Others0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

Others

Chile

Bolivia

Paraguay

Ecuador

Argentina

Venezuela

Peru

Colombia

Brazil

Contribution to Regional Population Growth (2000-2050)

Brazil still dominates.

Brazil will continue to dominate South America in terms of population, accounting for nearly half of the continent’s people. However, it will be the countries of north-western South America that provide half of the continent’s population growth by the middle of

this century.



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South America Ethnic Composition

0 100,000,000 200,000,000

Others

Blacks

Amerindians

Mestizos

Whites

Largest Ethnic Groups in South AmericaThe countries of southern South America have a predominantly white

population.

The European-descended population has controlled the political and economic systems in most South American countries, despite having a majority of the population in only

four countries (Argentina, Uruguay, Chile and Brazil).

Amerindians make up a sizeable portion of the population in the

Andes Mountains regions.

Mestizos have mixed White and Amerindian ancestries and are the largest group in seven countries.

60% of the Black population in South America lives in Brazil with large amounts also in the north.

The Asian community in Brazil and the Indian population in Guyana and

Suriname are also large.

Source: CIA

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South America Religious Composition

0 200,000,000 400,000,000

Others

Protestant

Roman Catholic

Largest Religious Groups in South America

86 percent of South America’s population is Roman Catholic.

No continent is dominated by a single religion as the Roman Catholic Church dominates South America. Nevertheless, Protestant churches will continue to grow throughout the

region.

South America is home to the world’s largest Roman Catholic

population.

Many Protestant churches have made significant inroads in a

number of countries in the region.

Nearly 75% of South America’s Protestant population lives in Brazil.

Other religious minorities in South America include Muslims, Jews and

Hindus.

Source: CIA

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South America Language Composition

0 100,000,000 200,000,000

Others

AmerindianLanguages

Spanish

Portuguese

Largest First Languages in South America

Due to its dominant role in Brazil, Portuguese in the leading language

in South America.

Despite having more Portuguese-speakers in the region, it is Spanish the dominates the continent as it is the leading language of all countries in the region outside of Brazil,

Guyana and Suriname. It is this dominance that has made Spanish the world’s number three language in terms of global importance, after English and Chinese.

Nearly 80% of the world’s Portuguese-speakers live in Brazil.

Outside of Brazil, Spanish is the leading language in most other

South America countries.

Amerindian languages such as Guarani, Aymara and Quechua are spoken in the interior of the region.

English is the primary second language learned by most South

Americans.

Source: CIA

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Largest Cities in South America

The slowdown in the overall population growth rates in most South American countries will ease the expansion of most South American cities, but not before additional strains

are placed on their fragile infrastructures and damaged environments.

South America’s largest cities continue to grow as more people move from rural areas in search of jobs.• Sao Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Buenos Aires are already among the world’s largest cities.• Meanwhile, cities such as Lima, Bogotá and Santiago continue to grow rapidly.• Brazil is currently home to five of South America’s ten largest cities.

Most large South American cities suffer from overcrowding and air pollution.• Most of these cities have huge slums with populations numbering in the millions.• Infrastructure improvement is desperately needed in most cities in the region.Source: World

Gazetteer

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Key Demographic Issue in South AmericaSouth America’s Roman Catholic Church

0

50,000,000

100,000,000

150,000,000

200,000,000

250,000,000

300,000,000

350,000,000

SouthAmerica

Europe NorthAmerica

Africa Asia

Roman Catholic Population by Continent

South America is home to more Roman Catholics than any other continent.• Moreover, the number of Roman Catholics in South America will reach 400 million later this century.

The Roman Catholic Church has had much influence on the region’s history.• Moreover, it retains more influence in South America than in many other arts of the world.• South American Catholics attend mass at a higher rate than their North American or European counterparts.• Attempts to create anti-church sentiments has failed in the countries were it was attempted.

The Western Hemisphere is home

to more the 50% of the world’s Catholics.

The South American Roman Catholic Church is growing in importance and is beginning to utilize its size and strength. No longer do Roman Catholics in Brazil or elsewhere

look solely to Rome for guidance. Moreover, South American church leaders are increasingly calling for the next pope to be from South America.

Source: CIA

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Top Environmental Issues in South America

The countries of the Amazon Basin are all increasing their economic activities in the region’s rainforests.• Agriculture, logging and mining are the main activities and agriculture in particular requires the clearing of much land.• This has led to an increase in the rate of deforestation in recent years.

South America’s largest cities continue to grow at a rapid pace.• This has led to a major increase in vehicle traffic as well as the spread of shantytowns on the outskirts of the cities.• As a result, air pollution in many major cities has reached high levels.

Pollution in the Major Urban Areas

Growing Exploitation of the Amazon Basin

El Niño has had a major impact upon fishing and agriculture in South America.• The fishing industries of the South American West Coast have suffered severe losses in El Niño years.• Agriculture too, has experienced major losses in these years.The Impact of El Niño

The Amazon Basin is the home to the greatest threat to South America’s environment (and the rest of the world’s). One positive sign for the continent’s environment is the

decline in population growth, which might stem some of the pressure.

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Key Geographic Issue in South AmericaProtecting the Amazon Basin

The Amazon Basin is home to the world’s largest rainforest.• Moreover, the Amazon Basin has the world’s richest diversity of flora and fauna.

Deforestation has already claimed 15% of the region’s rainforests.• Recent surveys have shown that the rate of deforestation is once again accelerating.• Logging operations are poorly controlled by the governments of the region.• Agricultural land is in increasing demand.• Oil and other mineral exploration activities are growing in the western Amazon Basin.

During the 1990s, much of the world was convinced that the deforestation of the Amazon Basin was being brought under control. Unfortunately, we have learned that this was not the case, and in fact, the situation had grown much worse. Without more

government intervention, it may yet become even worse.

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South America: Demographic and Environmental Risk Outlook

• Rampant population growth has eased in much of the region, easing demographic risk levels.

• The notable exceptions are found in north-western South America, where demographic risk levels remain high due to large-scale population growth.

Current Risk Ratings:

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Social Issues

Migration

Age-Characteristic Risk

Environmental Risk

Natural Disasters

Risk Measurements


Demographic Risk Outlook:


• Environmental risk levels remain among the lowest in the world, but could rise if pollution and deforestation are not contained.

Environmental Risk Outlook:

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Summary

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Future Outlook Summary

Demographic and Environmental Outlook• To the benefit of the entire region, the population growth in South America is slowing down, though a few countries such as Colombia and Peru will continue to see high rates of growth into the middle of this century.• South America’s influence in the Roman Catholic Church will grow with a pope from the region named in the near future.• Urban centers will continue to expand, creating further damage to the environment.• The exploitation of the Amazon Basin will expand as mining and agricultural activities grow in this region.

Political Outlook• The swing to the political left in South America over the past decade will result in leftist parties dominating the region for the next few years.• Governments and organizations will increasingly feel confident to deal with the abuses of the past in countries such as Argentina and Chile.• Brazil will increasingly push for a larger international role, including a permanent seat on the UN Security Council.

Economic Outlook• Economic growth will be highly uneven across South America, with some economies such as Brazil and Chile growing at a health pace while others, most notably Argentina and Venezuela, will continue to struggle.• The manufacturing sector in many countries will ebe hampered by the region’s general low level of export competitiveness. • Regional intergration will remain sporadic, though the long-term benefits of closer regional cooperation will increasingly be realized by a skeptical public.

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ISA Region Report

South America

July 2015 Edition

Name Here ISA Region Report South America July 2015 Edition.

Documents

Transcript of Name Here ISA Region Report South America July 2015 Edition.