NAM Alamo v1 - The Manufacturing Institute339112 Surgical and medical instrument manufacturing 25...

Economic Modeling Specialists Inc. ● 1187 Alturas Dr., Moscow, ID 83843 ● 866.999.3674 ● www.economicmodeling.com

April 21, 2009

Region: San Antonio MSATimeframe: 2006-2008; 2006-2011Prepared for: Alamo Community College District

Manufacturing Overview

http://www.economicmodeling.com


Manufacturing Overview | San Antonio MSA 2006-2008

EMSI 1

Introduction

Purpose and Goals

This report was assembled to help supplement the planning activities of Alamo Community College District. The goal is to provide solid and timely data about the manufacturing sector to augment their first hand knowledge and in doing so, equip the college to allocate resources more effectively and drive regional collaboration around needed skills training for manufacturing.

Because of the amount of economic turmoil in the past few months, the past three years of historical data were chosen for the first part of this report about the Manufacturing sector. The point was to provide perspective on what has actually happened in the region and highlight how those changes might affect the work of the college.

The second portion of the report considers the Manufacturing workforce and looks forward 3 years to provide some perspective on the employment outlook for occupations within the field. With the amount of change that has occurred, these projections should be taken with a grain of salt and vetted both by applying the reader’s local knowledge and by conversations with with local stakeholders.

Background

This report integrates data from multiple perspectives to assess regional wages, growth, and industry employment patterns.

The report is driven by a proprietary database created by Economic Modeling Specialists, Inc. that is based on data from over 90 government sources (including the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of the Census, and individual state agencies). The goal is to produce a simple and concrete source of regional economic information.

Note: Based on the fact that we are including so many data sources EMSI's data will usually differ from what is published by any single government agency. For more information, see the final page of this report.

Terms and DefinitionsUnderstanding the following terms is crucial to interpreting the data included in this report.

Jobs: Annual average full-time and part-time positions (not unduplicated head-count of workers) for nearly all types of workers (payroll employees, proprietors, railroad workers, military personnel, and more) in both the public and private sector.

Industry: A category of business activity defined by the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS).

Occupation: A category of workers defined by the Standard Occupational Classification (SOC).

Wage: Occupational wages are reported as median hourly wage only.

Projections/Forecasts: Estimates of future job numbers based on (1) recent historical regional trends and (2) published forecasts created by a consensus of state and federal agencies.

State: For region/state comparisons, regions that include portions of multiple states are compared to the aggregate data for all states. Regions that include an entire state are compared to the nation only.

RegionSan Antonio Metropolitan Statistical Area, Texas

TimeframeHistorical Industry Overview: January 2006 through December of 2008 Occupational Outlook: 2006 through 2011

Description 2006 Jobs 2008 Jobs Growth % Growth 2009 EPW

Agriculture, natural resources, and mining 24,675 26,164 1,489 6% $45,403

Construction 83,438 92,239 8,801 11% $42,119

Manufacturing 51,374 51,208 (167) 0% $54,040

Trade, transportation, and utilities 185,818 193,878 8,060 4% $41,062

Information 23,684 24,513 828 4% $78,104

Financial activities 113,802 118,287 4,485 4% $46,123

Professional and business services 153,553 159,374 5,820 4% $43,950

Education and health services 129,667 139,586 9,919 8% $39,141

Leisure and hospitality 108,883 116,721 7,839 7% $19,545

Other services 49,062 53,348 4,286 9% $21,445

Government 179,029 187,031 8,001 4% $61,325

1,102,987 1,162,348 59,362 5%

Source: EMSI Complete Employment - Spring 2009


EMSI 2

Industry Size and GrowthThis section highlights the changes in primary economic sectors within the San Antonio MSA (SA-MSA) from 2006-2008. The Manufacturing sector is highlighted by the red “cross hairs” within the chart.

Description 2006 Regional Jobs % Regional Jobs 2006 State Jobs

% State Jobs

Agriculture, natural resources, and mining 24,675 2.2% 616,909 4.6%

Construction 83,438 7.6% 947,705 7.1%

Manufacturing 51,374 4.7% 974,107 7.3%

Trade, transportation, and utilities 185,818 16.8% 2,565,118 19.1%

Information 23,684 2.1% 262,313 2.0%

Financial activities 113,802 10.3% 1,237,589 9.2%

Professional and business services 153,553 13.9% 1,829,926 13.7%

Education and health services 129,667 11.8% 1,386,837 10.3%

Leisure and hospitality 108,883 9.9% 1,111,899 8.3%

Other services 49,062 4.4% 655,961 4.9%

Government 179,029 16.2% 1,811,688 13.5%



EMSI 3

Sectoral CompositionThis section compares the SA-MSA to the state data for 2006.


EMSI 4

Current Economic BaseEconomic base analysis models the regional economy to show which groups of industries bring money into the region rather than simply circulating dollars that are already present. The first type of industries is called “basic” while the second type is called “non-basic.” Examples of common basic industries include manufacturing, agriculture and natural resources, and state or federal government enterprises. Basic industries are important because growth or decline in them results in large ripple effects across the economy.

Basic industries generally export products and services to non-regional purchasers. (There are also other ways that a region can bring in money: for example, the income of out-commuters in a bedroom community, or residents’ Social Security benefits from the federal government.) The model calculates how much of each industry’s jobs and earnings rely on its exports, then uses multiplier effects to attribute jobs and earnings from other industries to the original “basic” industry. So Manufacturing might account for only 1,000 direct jobs and $50m direct earnings in a region, but as a basic industry it might support an additional 500 indirect jobs and $20m in indirect earnings throughout the economy.

Note that economic base sector names and definitions are different from those used elsewhere in this report.

Economic Base, Jobs

Economic Base, Earnings

Economic Base Data

Sector Jobs Earnings(K) Jobs % Earnings % EPW(K)

Government 325,068 $16,435,203 28% 33% $51

Services 191,882 $7,533,398 17% 15% $39

Residents` Outside Income 135,190 $4,708,527 12% 9% $35

Finance 106,917 $5,000,835 9% 10% $47

Visitors 92,991 $2,958,955 8% 6% $32

Exogenous Investment 73,516 $2,999,422 6% 6% $41

Manufacturing 58,530 $2,687,798 5% 5% $46

Communications 58,239 $2,709,898 5% 5% $47

All Other 45,836 $2,323,705 4% 5% $51

Mining 28,982 $1,589,287 3% 3% $55

Construction 27,547 $1,135,618 2% 2% $41

Agriculture 9,402 $188,540 1% 0% $20


Manufacturing--Jobs Multiplier


EMSI 5

“Jobs”: Total direct and indirect jobs dependent on each sector as a basic industry. “Earnings”: Total direct and indirect earnings dependent on each sector as a basic industry, in thousands of dollars. “EPW”: Annual average earnings per worker for all jobs and earnings dependent on each sector, in thousands of dollars. “Residentsʼ Outside Income”: Includes investment dividends, interest, royalties, rents, transfer payments, and other forms of income gained from outside the region itself.

In the SA-MSA the Manufacturing sector directly employs 51,208 workers. That employment ripples out through the economy to produce another 7,322 jobs. In effect, the Manufacturing sector is responsible for supporting 58,530 jobs in the SA-MSA or five percent of all employment.

A common way of communicating that relationship is through the “multiplier.” In this case, the Manufacturing jobs multiplier is 1.14. For every 1 job in Manufacturing another .14 jobs is created (or destroyed) in the SA-MSA.

Description 2006 Jobs 2008 Jobs Change % Change EPW

Regional Total 51,374 51,208 (166) 0% $54,040

State Total 974,107 970,166 (3,941) 0% $78,687

National Total 14,654,607 13,937,640 (716,967) (5%) $73,259



EMSI 6

Manufacturing Change ComparisonThis chart and table highlight the change within the Manufacturing sector for the Region (SA-MSA), the state (Texas), and the nation.

NAICS Code Description 2006 Jobs 2008 Jobs Change % Change

337110 Wood kitchen cabinet and countertop mfg. 3,588 2,014 (1,574) (44%)

336411 Aircraft manufacturing 2,169 2,151 (18) (1%)

311812 Commercial bakeries 2,147 2,397 250 12%

312111 Soft drink manufacturing 1,555 1,565 10 1%

333415 AC, refrigeration, and forced air heating 1,403 1,434 31 2%

336412 Aircraft engine and engine parts mfg. 1,273 1,176 (97) (8%)

323116 Manifold business forms printing 1,237 1,033 (204) (16%)

336322 Other motor vehicle electric equipment mfg. 1,032 982 (50) (5%)

336111 Automobile manufacturing 1,019 1,963 944 93%

325412 Pharmaceutical preparation manufacturing 994 1,134 140 14%



EMSI 7

Manufacturing Detail-- Largest Sub-sectorsThese are the largest sub-sectors within Manufacturing measured by number of workers employed in 2006.

NAICS Code Description 2006 Jobs 2008 Jobs Change Change %

336111 Automobile manufacturing 1,019 1,963 944 93%

336360 Motor vehicle seating and interior trim mfg. 319 1,231 912 286%

311615 Poultry processing 590 1,224 634 107%

336370 Motor vehicle metal stamping 168 547 379 225%

339112 Surgical and medical instrument manufacturing 25 324 299 1,190%

311119 Other animal food manufacturing 214 484 270 126%

311812 Commercial bakeries 2,147 2,397 250 12%

327390 Other concrete product manufacturing 608 833 225 37%

332510 Hardware manufacturing 102 305 203 199%

311813 Frozen cakes and other pastries manufacturing 10 204 194 1,851%



EMSI 8

Manufacturing Detail--Fastest Growing 2006-2008These are the fastest growing sub-sectors within Manufacturing measured by the number of new jobs (“Change” within the table) from 2006 to 2008.

NAICS Code Description 2006 Jobs 2008 Jobs Change Change %

337110 Wood kitchen cabinet and countertop mfg. 3,588 2,014 (1,574) (44%)

323112 Commercial flexographic printing 612 141 (471) (77%)

311611 Animal, except poultry, slaughtering 446 84 (362) (81%)

314121 Curtain and drapery mills 643 318 (325) (51%)

311612 Meat processed from carcasses 911 590 (321) (35%)

321214 Truss manufacturing 466 151 (315) (68%)

326199 All other plastics product manufacturing 747 493 (254) (34%)

311211 Flour milling 397 150 (247) (62%)

331111 Iron and steel mills 928 713 (215) (23%)

323116 Manifold business forms printing 1,237 1,033 (204) (16%)



EMSI 9

Manufacturing Detail--Fastest Declining 2006-2008

These are the fastest declining sub-sectors within Manufacturing measured by the number of new jobs from 2006 to 2008.

SOC Code

Description 2006 Jobs

2011 Jobs

Change % Change

New & Rep. Jobs

% New & Rep.

2009 Median Hourly

Earnings

51-2092 Team assemblers 5,433 5,900 467 9% 1,042 19% $10.18

51-1011 First-line supervisors/managers of production and operating workers

3,350 3,378 28 1% 381 11% $19.94

51-9061 Inspectors, testers, sorters, samplers, and weighers 2,204 2,226 22 1% 257 12% $15.38

51-9198 Helpers--Production workers 2,099 1,978 (121) (6%) 116 6% $8.40

51-9111 Packaging and filling machine operators and tenders 2,042 1,944 (98) (5%) 130 6% $9.90

51-4121 Welders, cutters, solderers, and brazers 2,033 2,357 324 16% 558 27% $12.49

51-6011 Laundry and dry-cleaning workers 1,878 1,950 72 4% 280 15% $7.43

51-2022 Electrical and electronic equipment assemblers 1,851 1,939 88 5% 506 27% $12.91

51-4041 Machinists 1,201 1,289 88 7% 202 17% $14.77

51-6031 Sewing machine operators 1,131 771 (360) (32%) (214) (19%) $8.37

51-7042 Woodworking machine setters, operators, and tenders, except sawing

994 737 (257) (26%) (169) (17%) $10.24

51-5023 Printing machine operators 957 842 (115) (12%) (1) 0% $14.57

51-7011 Cabinetmakers and bench carpenters 902 577 (325) (36%) (241) (27%) $10.69

51-2041 Structural metal fabricators and fitters 874 924 50 6% 128 15% $13.95

51-3021 Butchers and meat cutters 755 828 73 10% 199 26% $10.86

51-6021 Pressers, textile, garment, and related materials 737 644 (93) (13%) (55) (7%) $8.25

51-9083 Ophthalmic laboratory technicians 726 815 89 12% 160 22% $19.14

51-8031 Water and liquid waste treatment plant and system operators

638 737 99 16% 159 25% $14.79

51-3092 Food batchmakers 618 691 73 12% 158 25% $8.59

51-4031 Cutting, punching, and press machine setters, operators, and tenders, metal and plastic

613 633 20 3% 139 23% $12.50



EMSI 10

Largest Production Occupations-- 2006-2011Production occupations make up a large portion of manufacturing employment especially within the low-to-middle skill areas. This table highlights the demand for the top 20 largest (by 2006 employment) from 2006-2011.

Bachelor’s Degree

SOC Code Description 2006 Jobs 2011 Jobs Change % Change New & Rep. Jobs

Annual Openings

2009 Median Hourly

Earnings

17-2051 Civil engineers 1,679 1,896 217 13% 450 75 $27.55

17-1011 Architects, except landscape and naval 935 1,038 103 11% 194 32 $26.74

17-2141 Mechanical engineers 746 826 80 11% 165 28 $29.73

17-2112 Industrial engineers 391 488 97 25% 151 25 $29.79

17-2072 Electronics engineers, except computer 668 734 66 10% 149 25 $34.91

17-2199 Engineers, all other 1,226 1,295 69 6% 142 24 $38.10

17-2071 Electrical engineers 580 647 67 12% 138 23 $34.64

17-2081 Environmental engineers 201 229 28 14% 59 10 $38.59

17-2171 Petroleum engineers 125 159 34 27% 53 9 $42.84

17-2061 Computer hardware engineers 173 186 13 8% 40 7 $37.99

17-2131 Materials engineers 147 166 19 13% 37 6 $41.09

17-2041 Chemical engineers 93 105 12 13% 25 4 $43.89



EMSI 11

Manufacturing Occupation ClusterThe previous table considered Production Occupations, which are in heavy decline within the SA-MSA. The following tables take a wider view of the potential occupations employed in Manufacturing. These range across a variety of activity types and education/training requirements. The tables display workers from several occupational areas including: Architecture and Engineering; Management; Installation, Maintenance, and Repair; and Transportation and Material Moving. The goal is to indicate areas where the NAM Skill Certification System might be applicable.

Occupations are grouped by education requirements. The top occupations within each education level, that show demand (2006-2011 Annual Openings), are displayed.

Occupational Area Key:

11-0000 Management17-0000 Architecture and Engineering49-0000 Installation, Maintenance, and Repair51-0000 Production53-0000 Transportation and Material Moving

Work Experience in a related Field

SOC Code Description 2006 Jobs

2011 Jobs Change % Change New & Rep. Jobs

Annual Openings

2009 Median Hourly

Earnings

49-1011 First-line supervisors/managers of mechanics, installers, and repairers

2,921 3,148 227 8% 580 97 $23.35

51-1011 First-line supervisors/managers of production and operating workers

3,350 3,378 28 1% 381 64 $19.94

53-1021 First-line supervisors/managers of helpers, laborers, and material movers, hand

1,220 1,370 150 12% 281 47 $18.68

53-1031 First-line supervisors/managers of transportation and material-moving machine and vehicle operators

1,164 1,291 127 11% 251 42 $21.81

11-3051 Industrial production managers 560 581 21 4% 135 23 $41.41


Associates Degree


Annual Openings

2009 Median Hourly

Earnings

17-3022 Civil engineering technicians 854 955 101 12% 188 31 $16.44

49-9062 Medical equipment repairers 318 375 57 18% 106 18 $12.77

17-3029 Engineering technicians, except drafters, all other

554 587 33 6% 88 15 $23.18

17-3023 Electrical and electronic engineering technicians

515 551 36 7% 87 15 $25.15

17-3027 Mechanical engineering technicians 340 378 38 11% 73 12 $20.93

17-3026 Industrial engineering technicians 191 219 28 15% 48 8 $23.70

51-9141 Semiconductor processors 102 114 12 12% 28 5 $17.50

17-3025 Environmental engineering technicians 78 88 10 13% 18 3 $20.13

17-3024 Electro-mechanical technicians 49 56 7 14% 12 2 $27.43

17-3021 Aerospace engineering and operations technicians

20 20 0 0% 2 0 $31.57



EMSI 12

Postsecondary Vocational Award


Annual Openings

2009 Median Hourly

Earnings

49-3023 Automotive service technicians and mechanics

5,219 5,654 435 8% 973 162 $13.95

49-3031 Bus and truck mechanics and diesel engine specialists

1,585 1,730 145 9% 324 54 $14.26

49-3011 Aircraft mechanics and service technicians 1,750 1,917 167 10% 260 43 $20.23

49-3042 Mobile heavy equipment mechanics, except engines

855 979 124 15% 214 36 $16.95

17-3011 Architectural and civil drafters 621 665 44 7% 134 22 $17.36

49-2098 Security and fire alarm systems installers 445 545 100 22% 132 22 $13.61

49-2094 Electrical and electronics repairers, commercial and industrial equipment

345 380 35 10% 96 16 $21.51

49-2097 Electronic home entertainment equipment installers and repairers

294 361 67 23% 83 14 $11.67

17-3013 Mechanical drafters 369 391 22 6% 75 13 $19.05


On the Job Training


Annual Openings

2009 Median Hourly

Earnings

53-7062 Laborers and freight, stock, and material movers, hand

12,031 12,102 71 1% 1914 319 $9.45

53-3033 Truck drivers, light or delivery services 6,250 6,920 670 11% 1247 208 $11.13

49-9042 Maintenance and repair workers, general 9,758 10,818 1,060 11% 1186 198 $12.03

51-2092 Team assemblers 5,433 5,900 467 9% 1042 174 $10.18

53-7061 Cleaners of vehicles and equipment 2,738 3,143 405 15% 966 161 $7.79

53-3031 Driver/sales workers 4,302 4,607 305 7% 809 135 $10.68

53-3022 Bus drivers, school 3,239 3,679 440 14% 665 111 $9.34

49-9021 Heating, air conditioning, and refrigeration mechanics and installers

2,816 3,123 307 11% 563 94 $13.88

51-4121 Welders, cutters, solderers, and brazers 2,033 2,357 324 16% 558 93 $12.49

53-7051 Industrial truck and tractor operators 3,223 3,325 102 3% 538 90 $11.07

51-2022 Electrical and electronic equipment assemblers

1,851 1,939 88 5% 506 84 $12.91

49-9021 Heating, air conditioning, and refrigeration mechanics and installers

1,982 1,944 (38) (2%) 126 21 $16.99



EMSI 13


EMSI 14

Data Sources and Methodology

Occupation DataEMSI’s occupation data are based on EMSI’s industry data and regional occupational statistics and staffing patterns taken from the Occupational Employment Statistics program (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics). Additional wage information is derived from the American Community Survey, and wages are adjusted and interpolated at the county and ZIP code level using EMSI earnings data from relevant industries.

Industry DataIn order to capture a comprehensive picture of regional industry employment (EMSI Complete Employment), EMSI basically combines unsuppressed covered employment data from Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) produced by the Department of Labor with total employment data in the Regional Economic Information System published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, augmented with County Business Patterns and Nonemployer Statistics published by the U.S. Census Bureau. Projections are based on the latest available EMSI industry data combined with past trends in each industry and the industry growth rates in national projections (Bureau of Labor Statistics) and state-level projections (individual state agencies). Unemployment data are based on the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Local Area Unemployment Statistics program.

EMSI also provides a more limited industry and occupation data set, EMSI Covered Employment, which is an unsuppressed version of QCEW.


EMSI 15

About EMSI

Products and ServicesEMSI provides integrated regional economic and labor market data, web-based analysis tools, data-driven reports, and custom consulting services. EMSI specializes in detailed information about regional economies for assessment and planning purposes, bringing together industry, workforce, economic development, and education/training perspectives.EMSI’s expertise is centered on regional economics, data integration and analysis, programming, and design so that it can provide the best available products and services for regional decision makers. EMSI recently merged with its sister company CCbenefits Inc.—well known for conducting socioeconomic impact studies for over 800 community and technical colleges across the nation—to offer an integrated portfolio of solutions for college, workforce, and economic development professionals.

ClientsEMSI’s diverse client base includes hundreds of colleges, workforce boards, economic development organizations, governmental agencies, economists, consultants, academics, and private-sector analysts. With over four thousand current clients in the U.S., Canada, and the United Kingdom, EMSI’s products and services are critical for strategic decision making and informed regional policy.

Contact EMSIFor more information about EMSI, visit us at www.economicmodeling.com. If you have any questions about this report please contact Luke Jankovic by phone at 509-878-3078 or email, [email protected].



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NAM Alamo v1 - The Manufacturing Institute339112 Surgical and medical instrument manufacturing 25...

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