NAEA September Market Report
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Transcript of NAEA September Market Report
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KCM Divided intoThree Sections
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4,000,000
4,500,000
5,000,000
5,500,000
Jan2012
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan2013
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan2014
Feb Mar Apr May Jun July
EXISTING Home Sales
NAR 8/2014
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100 = Historically Healthy Level
NAR 8/2014
PENDING Home Sales
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“Unit sales are currently down 5 percent year-over-year, but we
expect 2014 to end up close to last year’s totals at a little more than
5 million units sold.”
Lawrence YunNAR’s Chief Economist
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“Our June data shows monthly inventory picking up in markets already experiencing price increases and fast property turnover. These dynamics will result in strong home sales and extend the buying season past the usual June/July peak to later in the third quarter.”
Jonathan SmokeChief Economist for realtor.com
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reator.org
Foot Traffic (indicator of future sales)
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Searches for Real Estate Related Terms
Google Data, Indexed Search Query Volume, U.S.
July 2008 Jan 2009 July 2009 Jan 2010 July 2010 Jan 2011 July 2011 Jan 2012 July 2012 Jan 2013 July 2013 Jan 2014 July 2014
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PRICES
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2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013App/Dep 4.2% 4.5% 3.6% 7.4% 7.1% 1.9% -1.6% -8.9% -7.0% 0.4% -1.8% 1.9% 6.8%
-10.0%
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
Annual Home Price Gains
Source: Wall Street Journal
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Prices Back to 2005 1Q Prices
Case Shiller 8/2014
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
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The Impact of Monthly Housing Inventory on Home Prices
LESS THAN 6 MONTHS
BETWEEN6-7 MONTHS
GREATER THAN7 MONTHS
SELLERS MARKETHomes prices will appreciate
NEUTRAL MARKETHomes prices
will only appreciate with
inflation
BUYERS MARKETHomes prices will depreciate
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4.6
4.95.0
5.2
5.75.5 5.5 5.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
Months Inventory of HOMES FOR SALE
NAR 8/2014
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S&P Case Shiller 8/2014
Year-Over-Year
PRICECHANGES
CaseShiller
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13.2% 12.9% 12.4%
10.8%
9.3%8.1%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
S&P Case Shiller 8/2014
Year-Over-Year PRICE CHANGESCase Shiller
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“For the first time since February 2008, all cities
showed lower annual rates than the previous month.”
David M. BlitzerChairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices
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“We’re lowering that forecast to 4% year-over-year in light of the
latest slowdown, but we’re sticking with our existing forecast
of 4% in subsequent years.”
Paul DiggleProperty Economist with Capital Economics
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"This reversion to normality that we are finally experiencing is expected to continue across the country and
should further alleviate concern over diminishing affordability and the risk
of another asset bubble."
Mark FlemingChief Economist for CoreLogic
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“The simple visualization of complex data for things like real estate trends empower the real estate professional
to educate their consumer and positions the agent as THE reliable
source for this information.”
Matt DollingerPresident and Founder, Gearbox Consulting
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Prices 2Q 2014 vs. 2Q 2013
FHFA 2014 2Q Home Price Index
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Prices 2Q 2014 vs. 2Q 2013
FHFA 2014 2Q Home Price Index
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12-Month Home Price Change
CoreLogic Market Pulse 8.2014
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1-Month Home Price Change
CoreLogic Market Pulse 8.2014
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Prices & Time Since The Peak
CoreLogic Market Pulse 8.2014
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Home Price Expectation
SurveyA nationwide panel
of over one hundred economists, real
estate experts and investment & market
strategists.
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Home Price Expectation Survey 2014 3Q
Average Annual % APPRECIATION
Pre-Bubble
Bubble
Bust
RecoveryTo Date
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Home Price Expectation Survey 2014 3Q
PROJECTEDMean Percentage Appreciation
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Home Price Expectation Survey 2014 3Q
Cumulative House Appreciation by 2018
19.4%
27.8%
19.5%
11.2%Pre-BubbleTrend
Bulls All Projections
Bears
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S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
S&P Case Shiller 8/2014
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Freddie Mac 9/2014
Freddie Mac Actual Rates
January 2013 – August 2014
30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgages
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% Change in Sales from last year
by Price Range
NAR 8/2014
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Months Inventory of HOMES FOR SALE
NAR 8/2014
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Months Inventory of HOMES FOR SALE
NAR 7/2014
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NAR 8/2014
Year-over-Year Inventory Levels
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RETURN ON INVESTMENTJanuary 2000 – September 2014
Yahoo & Case Shiller
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0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35% Percentage of Distressed Property
Sales
35%
9%
15%
NAR 8/2014
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Resources
KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM
Slide Slide Title Link
4, 5, 14, Existing Home Sales, Pending Home Sales, Months Inventory,
www.realtor.org/
6 Lawrence Yun Quote http://realtormag.realtor.org/daily-news/2014/08/08/2014-expected-have-strong-finish
7 Jonathan Smoke Quote http://www.realtor.com/news/realtor-com-report-surging-home-sales-predicted-10-metro-markets/
8 Foot Traffic https://magic.piktochart.com/output/2318478-foot-traffic-june-2014
9 Google Study http://www.thinkwithgoogle.com/articles/house-hunting-season.html
11 Annual Home Price Gains https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BttrHkxCcAEREHB.jpg
12, 15, 16, 17,
Prices Back to 2005 1Q, Year-over-Year Price Changes, David Blitzer Quote
http://us.spindices.com/index-family/real-estate/sp-case-shiller
18 Paul Diggle Quote http://www.housingwire.com/articles/31210-heres-why-home-price-growth-will-slow-to-4-in-2015
19 Mark Fleming Quote http://www.housingwire.com/articles/30915-home-price-gains-slow-to-75-as-forecast-calls-for-further-decline
21 FHFA 2Q Regional, 2Q State, http://www.fhfa.gov/Media/PublicAffairs/Pages/FHFA-House-Price-Index-Shows-Gains-for-Twelve-Consecutive-Quarters.aspx
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Resources
KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM
Slide Slide Title Link
23-2512-Month Change, 1-Month Change, Price & Time Since Peak
http://www.corelogic.com/about-us/researchtrends/the-marketpulse.aspx#
27-29Average Annual Appreciation, Projected Mean Appreciation, Cumulative Appreciation
https://www.pulsenomics.com/Q3_2014_HPE_Survey.php
31 Case Shiller HPI http://us.spindices.com/index-family/real-estate/sp-case-shiller
32 30-Year Fixed Rate http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
33-35, 38
% Change in Sales, Months Inventory, Year-over-Year Inventory, % Distressed HomeSales
http://www.realtor.org
37 Return on Investment http://us.spindices.com/index-family/real-estate/sp-case-shillerhttp://finance.yahoo.com/
42 Marc Davison Quote http://1000watt.net/2014/08/real-estates-golden-prize/
58 Google Study http://www.thinkwithgoogle.com/articles/house-hunting-season.html
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If people gravitate to your brand, not just your
listings, you’ve got leverage against any portal.
Marc DavisonCo-Founder 1000watt Consulting
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Alexa Silva typically has about a dozen pieces up telling a story. Three years ago she wasn't in real estate. She will sell 50-60 homes this year. [email protected] 772-245-9158
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“Two in three people researched prospective agents extensively online prior to working with them.” - Google
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