NADIR – Focus Area V:Forecasting Geomagnetic Activity

MURI All-Hands Meeting, Boulder, CO, October, 21-22, 2008

David Falconer University of Alabama & NASA/MSFC,

Huntsville, AL

Tim Fuller-Rowell University of Colorado/CIRES & NOAA/SWPC, Boulder, CO

Dusan Odstrcil University of Colorado/CIRES & NOAA/SWPC, Boulder, CO

Vic Pizzo NOAA/Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder, CO

Jimmy Raeder Space Science Center, University of New Hampshire, New Hampshire, NH

Lead Times in Forecasting

Observations Lead time

Heliospheric disturbances at L1 ~30-50 min

Coronal eruptions ~1-3 days

Solar active regions ~3-5 days

Larger Lead Time of Geoeffectivity Predictions

DAY 1 DAY 2 DAY 3 DAY 4

Probabilities of the solar eruption (A%), interplanetary shock (B%), and ejecta (C%), and geo-effectivity (D%) before the actual eruption

Pre-computed scenarios ready if actual eruption happens

EARTH

ACTIVE REGION

EARTH EARTH EARTH

SHOCK SHOCK SHOCK

EJECTA

ACTIVE REGION ACTIVE REGION ACTIVE REGION

Photospheric Magnetic Field CME Probabilistic Model

2006-12-10 2006-12-11 2006-12-12 2006-12-132006-12-09

2006-12-09

CAR=E26S10

PCME = 16%

RCME = 470

VCME = slow

2006-12-10

CAR=E13S10

PCME = 15%

RCME = 490

VCME = slow

2006-12-11

CAR=E00S10

PCME = 13%

RCME = 510

VCME = slow

2006-12-12

CAR=W13S10

PCME = 17%

RCME = 520

VCME = slow

2006-12-13

CAR=W26S10

PCME = 15%

RCME = 500

VCME = slow

CME Probabilistic Model CME Initial Parameters

2006-12-09

CAR=E40S10

PCME = 16%

RCME = 470

Run 1V=1000 km/sR = 200

Run 2V=1000 km/sR = 400

Run 3V=1000 km/sR = 600

Run 4V=1500 km/sR = 200

Run 5V=1500 km/sR = 400

Run 6V=1500 km/sR = 600

Run 7V=2000 km/sR = 200

Run 8V=2000 km/sR = 400

Run 9V=2000 km/sR = 600

CME Initial Parameters ICME Propagation

RUN 7: V = 2000 km/s, R = 200

RUN 4: V = 1500 km/s, R = 200

RUN 1: V = 1000 km/s, R = 200

ICME Propagation Ensemble StudyRUN 2: V = 1000 km/s, R = 400 RUN 3: V = 1000 km/s, R = 600

RUN 5: V = 1500 km/s, R = 400 RUN 6: V = 1500 km/s, R = 600

RUN 8: V = 2000 km/s, R = 400 RUN 9: V = 2000 km/s, R = 600

Ensemble Study Disturbances at Geospace

Ensemble Study Disturbances at Geospace

Ensemble Study All-Clear Conditions

12/09 12/1112/10 12/12 12/14 12/1512/13

SUN-EARTH

Run 1V=1000 km/sR = 200

Run 3V=1000 km/sR = 600

Run 4V=1500 km/sR = 200

Run 5V=1500 km/sR = 400

Run 6V=1500 km/sR = 600

Run 7V=2000 km/sR = 200

Run 8V=2000 km/sR = 400

Run 9V=2000 km/sR = 600

EAST LIMB

WEST LIMB

25% - 50%

50% - 75%

75% -100%

Strength:

Run 2V=1000 km/sR = 400

0% - 25%

Ensemble Studies All-Clear Conditions

12/09 12/1112/10 12/12 12/14 12/1512/13

SUN-EARTH

EAST LIMB

WEST LIMB

25% - 50%

50% - 75%

25% -100%

Strength:

0% - 25%

2009-12-09

12:00Run1 Run2 Run3Run4 Run5 Run6Run7 Run8 Run9

2009-12-11

12:00Run1 Run2 Run3Run4 Run5 Run6Run7 Run8 Run9

2009-12-10

12:00Run1 Run2 Run3Run4 Run5 Run6Run7 Run8 Run9

All-Clear Conditions Probabilistic Forecast

12/09 12/1112/10 12/12 12/14 12/1512/13

25% - 50 %0% - 25 % 25% - 50 % 25% - 50 %Probability:

Based on Observations of 2006-12-09 12:00 UT

12/09

12/10

12/11

12/12

12/13

Date of Disturbance at Earth

Dat

e of

Eru

ptio

n at

Sun

Eruption Observed Prediction of ICME ParametersLead Time ~ 1-2 days

Computational System at Univ. New Hampshire

• Meerkat: cluster of 40 PlayStation 3 game consoles

• Cluster is controlled from a quad-processor head node

• OpenGGCM has beedn ported to the cluster; runs > 5 times faster than on Opteron 246 nodes Zaphod cluster

• ENLIL has been ported on quad-processor head node; runs > 5 times faster than on devmoels-01 at SWPC

Solar Wind Velocity – Messenger/Mercury Flyby

Solar Wind Predictions – Streams at Earth

ENLIL-OpenGGCM: Shock Interaction with MagnetosphereWork in progress..