NAB Business Survey December 2012

7/29/2019 NAB Business Survey December 2012

1/11

Embargoed until:

11.30am Tuesday 29 January 2013

Monthly Business Survey December 2012

Business confidence posts a sharp jump in December, but not so activity and forward

indicators, which remain poor particularly wholesale, manufacturing, retail andconstruction. Better external sentiment (temporary avoidance of the US fiscal cliff),strengthening in Chinese data and lower rates have all helped confidence. Despite thisforward indicators point to a further slowing in Q1 growth. Survey highlights weak coreinflation. We still expect three rate cuts (starting in Feb) and growth of only 2% in 2013.

Business confidence improved considerably in December, after deteriorating to its weakest level since April2009 in the previous month. Firms appear to have taken relief from a last minute agreement to delay the USfiscal cliff, while signs of strengthening in the Chinese economy have also helped. This, combined with anotherRBA rate cut in December is likely to have helped confidence.

Business conditions however remain poor albeit a touch improved in December. Of greater concern is theweakness in forward indicators of demand: with poor forward orders; capacity utilisation and capex atdepressed levels; and credit demand back to record low levels.

Wholesale business conditions collapsed in the final months of 2012 - to its lowest level in the history of thesurvey (since 1997). The weakness in wholesale conditions is a real concern as it appears to be a leadingindicator of overall business conditions (see Box on this at page 3).

The slight tick up in business conditions in December reflected modest improvements in profitability andemployment conditions, partially offset by a slight deterioration in trading conditions. Overall, the survey impliesunderlying demand and GDP growth in the March quarter of around 2% and 2% respectively a furtherslowing in growth from already below trend rates.

Labour costs growth rose in December but remained fairly contained, purchase costs and product price inflationmoderated slightly, all consistent very subdued on going inflation now confirmed by the core CPI measures.Retail price growth in the survey remained soft overall.

Implications for NAB forecasts (See latest Global & Australian forecasts report also released today):

Financial markets have lifted as confidence builds on a global recovery. Central bank action in the Euro-zone,US and Japan has helped sentiment but growth to remain subdued in 2013 (3.3%) rising to nearly 4% (abovetrend) in 2014. Developed economies to strengthen from H2 2013 (with Europe starting to grow) but emergingmarket economies (especially China & India) to drive global growth. Possible upside risks in China and the US.

The Australian economy has softened, with leading indicators suggesting the first half of 2013 will be difficult.Near-term outlook very soft GDP forecasts 2.0% in 2013 and 3.3% in 2014 (unchanged from 11 January).CPI inflation surprisingly low for Q4 2012. We see core inflation (inc. carbon) of 2.6% through 2013 and 2.8%through 2014. Downward demand and price pressures have shifted the balance of risks towards an RBA ratereduction in February (rather than March). But with unemployment rising to 5% by mid-2013, we still see theneed for two additional 25 bp rate cuts possibly in May and August, taking the cash rate to 2.25%.

Key monthly business statistics*

Oct Nov Dec Oct Nov Dec

2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012Net balance Net balance

Business confidence -1 -9 3 Employment -6 -5 -3

Business conditions -5 -6 -4 Forward orders -6 -11 -5

Trading -3 -3 -4 Stocks -2 -4 -2

Profitability -7 -11 -6 Exports -2 -3 -4

% change at quarterly rate % change at quarterly rate

Labour costs 0.7 0.7 0.9 Retail prices -0.1 -0.2 0.4

Purchase costs 0.6 0.6 0.4 Per cent

Final products prices 0.2 0.1 0.0 Capacity utilisation rate 80.1 79.5 79.7

* All data seasonally adjusted and subject to revision. Cost and prices data are monthly percentage changes expressed at a quarterly rate. All other data are netbalance indexes, except capacity utilisation, which is an average rate, expressed as a percentage. Fieldwork for this survey was conducted from 9 to 15 January,covering over 500 firms across the non-farm business sector.

For more information contact:Alan Oster, Chief Economist(03) 8634 2927 Mobile 0414 444 652

Next release:7 February 2013 (December quarterly)12 February 2013 (January monthly)
http://www.nab.com.au/wps/wcm/connect/nab/nab/home/business_solutions/10http://www.nab.com.au/wps/wcm/connect/nab/nab/home/business_solutions/10


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Embargoed until 11:30am Tuesday, 29 January 2013

Analysis

Conditions still subdued with littlerecovery in sight

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IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV

2010 2011 2012

Seasonally adjusted TrendConds 1990s recn Conds GFC

Business conditions (net balance)

Average of the indexes of trading conditions, profitability andemployment.

Business conditions improved a touch in December up 2 to -4 index points though remained difficultoverall. When combined with particularly weak activityreadings in the preceding three monthly surveys, the

December monthly survey provided further evidencethat the Australian economy slowed into the back endof 2012. Business conditions remained particularlychallenging in wholesale, manufacturing, retail andconstruction though the latter two industries didimprove a touch in the month. On the other hand,conditions in transport & utilities and recreation &personal services were relatively favourable in themonth. Forward looking indicators of demand, whilegenerally better than reported in the previous month,remained weak and suggest that activity is likely toremain poor in the near term.

The business conditions index is currently 9 points

below its medium-term average (since 1997 for theMonthly Survey) of +5 index points. Over the timeperiod of the full Quarterly Survey (since 1989),conditions are 5 points below the long-run average (of+1 point).

Business confidence rebounded sharply inDecember up 12 points to +3 index points morethan unwinding a sharp deterioration in the previousmonth. With activity indicators suggesting continuedweakness in economic activity in December, it is likelythat much of the change in sentiment was a result ofimprovements in financial and equity markets.

Offshore, a last minute agreement to avert the USfiscal cliff in early January (just prior to thecommencement of surveying), as well as signs ofstrengthening in Chinese activity all helped with theVIX (or fear) index, for example falling to levels notseen since early 2007. This, combined with anadditional 25 bp rate cut by the RBA in December islikely to have lifted local confidence. Whether thisfeeling of relative optimism will be sustained into thenew year remains to be seen. Overall confidencereadings are, however, still a touch below the serieslong-run average (of +5 points since 1989).

Confidence spikes up, but will it last?

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2010 2011 2012

Seasonally adjusted TrendConf 1990s recn Conf GFC

Business confidence (net balance)

Excluding normal seasonal changes, how do you expect thebusiness conditions facing your industry in the next month tochange?

Business conditions by industry. Business conditions deteriorated particularly sharply in wholesale in

December, with this industry the worst performing overall. It is likely that generally poor conditions inindustries that utilise wholesale services primarily retail and manufacturing are compounding theweakness in this industry. Manufacturing also reported a modest deterioration in conditions in the month,while activity improved across all other industries. The biggest turnaround in conditions occurred intransport & utilities and construction up 8 and 6 points respectively. The overall level of conditionsremained poor in wholesale, manufacturing, retail and construction, while conditions appear relativelyhealthy in transport & utilities and recreation & personal services.

Business conditions by state. Conditions deteriorated heavily in SA and WA in December, whereconditions were extremely subdued. Part of the softening in these regions may reflect the flow on impactthat recent scaling back of mining investment is having on supporting industries. However, a similarconclusion cannot be drawn for Queensland Australias second largest mining state where conditionsstrengthened. Overall conditions remained difficult across all states in December, with no state reporting

positive conditions for a second consecutive month.

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Analysis (cont.)

Business confidence by industry. Confidence strengthened considerably across nearly all industries inDecember, with the net balance statistics increasing by between 10 and 20 index points. The onlyindustry that did not report better confidence was wholesale, where it softened marginally. The generalimprovement in sentiment is likely to have partly reflected some resolve on the US fiscal cliff front, the

additional interest rate relief provided by the RBA at its meeting in December, as well as the generalstrengthening in local equity markets. Confidence was strongest in transport & utilities and finance/business/ property, while it was still subdued (and negative) in wholesale and mining.

Business confidence by state. Confidence improved across all mainland states in December. The mostnotable turnaround was in WA, followed by Queensland and NSW, which may reflect better data out ofChina pointing to continued commodities demand over the year ahead as well as reasons outlinedabove. Confidence was strongest in WA, followed by Queensland, while it was most subdued (marginallynegative) in Victoria. Confidence improved solidly in Tasmania, albeit on a small sample.

Wholesale: Signalling a significantslowdown coming?

Wholesale weakness a worry

The weakness in wholesaling that has persisted for thebest part of three and a half years was accentuated inDecember, with trend conditions falling to the lowestlevel in the history of the survey (-20 points).

Based on historical relationships, wholesale conditionsappear to be a reasonably good forward indicator ofoverall business conditions certainly there is strongstatistical evidence of a leading relationship (Grangercausality). Our analysis suggests that if the Decemberreading for wholesale conditions were to continue in Q12013, overall business conditions could be expected tofall to around -8 index points. That, in turn, is suggestiveof an economy running at around 1 per cent growth inannualised terms.

In addition, the forward orders reported by wholesaleare quite alarming with wholesale orders slumping totheir lowest level in history (-30 points). Furthermore,capital expenditure in wholesaling fell to the lowest levelof all industries in the month. Thus, the outlook forwholesale activity remains grim, and it is likely thatactivity in the domestic economy will weaken further inearly 2013.

Wholesale as a leading indicator of

business conditions

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2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

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Business c onditions

Prediction from wholesale leading indicator

Net bal. Net bal.

Indicator = f(business conditions_wsl, business

conditions_wsl(-1 to - 4), ar( 1), ar(3))

The forward orders index improved significantly in December up 6 to -5 index points throughremained very subdued after reporting its weakest outcome since May 2009 in the previous month. Thepick up in orders was apparent in all industries except for wholesale, where it fell by 16 points to-30 index points; this was the weakest outcome in the history of the survey (since 1997). Orders were up

strongly in mining and construction, where they were among the least subdued. While orders weregenerally better in December, the low level of capacity utilisation was still very apparent, with utilisedcapacity rising only marginally to 79.7%. The slight increase largely reflected improvements in utilisedcapacity of mining and finance/ business/ property, which were partly offset by a solid fall in retail.Overall, capacity utilisation was highest in transport & utilities and recreation & personal services, while itwas lowest in manufacturing, construction and retail. The stocks index improved modestly in December(up 2 to -2 points), unwinding the decline in November. The general level of stocks remains depressed,which may reflect firms looking to maintain low inventories in the expectation that near-term demand willremain subdued, as indicated by weak forward orders. The stocks series has previously tended to movepro-cyclically and despite a slight up tick, adds weight to the general weak tone of the survey.

The capital expenditure index was unchanged at zero index points in December, following a modestrise in the previous month. Within the month, capex improved very sharply in mining, while it alsostrengthened solidly in transport & utilities, manufacturing and construction. However, these gains were

entirely offset by falls in wholesale and retail capex. In levels terms, capital expenditure was highest inmining (+19) a marked turnaround from outcomes over recent months recreation & personal services(+11) and finance/ business/ property (+6), while it was lowest in wholesale (-13) and construction (-11).

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Analysis (cont.)

Demand growth to remain subdued

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03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

Domestic demand Prediction from orders

Forward orders (change & level) as an indicator of

domestic demand (6-monthly annualised)

Based on average monthly forward orders over theDecember quarter, the survey implies 6-monthlyannualised demand growth was a subdued 2% inthe December quarter. If we assume forward orderscontinue at a similar level into the new year, thesurvey implies demand growth will soften a touch inthe March quarter - to around 2 - 2%.

Similarly, the average of monthly business conditionsover the December quarter implies 6-monthlyannualised GDP growth of around 2% in theDecember quarter. If we assume average monthlybusiness conditions over the December quarterpersist into the March quarter, the survey implies GDPgrowth will pick up a touch to around 2% in theMarch quarter, albeit a still below trend outcome.

Elsewhere in the survey, cash flow (not seasonallyadjusted) was strongest in finance/ business/

property, recreation & personal services andconstruction, and weakest in manufacturing and retail.

Labour costs growth (a wages bill measure) rose inDecember, up 0.2 ppts to 0.9% (at a quarterly rate).While the pace of growth has strengthened, it remainsbelow the series average (of 1.2% since 1997);suggesting overall cost pressures remain withinacceptable ranges. Solid rises were reported inconstruction and, to a lesser extent, manufacturingand mining, while retail cost pressures softenedmodestly and finance/ business/ property andrecreation & personal services growth was a littlesofter. Overall, labour costs growth (quarterly rate)was strongest in construction (1.8%) and transport &utilities (1.3%) and softest in retail (0.1%), wholesaleand finance/ business/ property (both 0.7%).

GDP (ex coal) growth to weaken inQ4, before ticking up in early 2013

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03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

GDP Predic tion from bus conds

Business conditions (change & level) as an indicator of

GDP (6-monthly annualised)

Price inflation was zero in December, following verytepid growth of 0.1% (in quarterly terms) in November.The inflation rate implied by the survey remains quitesubdued, with restrained consumer spending, apersistently high AUD and soft labour market keepingprices contained. The tick down in prices growthlargely reflected a heavy decline in wholesale prices with this industry possibly discounting on the back of

faltering demand as well as modest declines intransport & utilities price inflation, which were partlyoffset by rises in retail price inflation. Inflation wasleast subdued in retail (+0.4%) and weakest inwholesale and mining (both -0.7%).

Purchase cost pressures weakened a little inDecember (down 0.2 ppts to 0.4%; at a quarterlyrate). Across industries, purchase cost pressureseased a touch in wholesale, finance/ business/property and retail and strengthened modestly inmining and transport & utilities. Purchase costs growthwas strongest in recreation & personal services(1.1%; at a quarterly rate) and mining (0.8%), while it

was weakest in wholesale (zero).

Labour cost pressures tick up butstill contained

-1.0

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2010 2011 2012

Labour Product price Reta il p rice

Costs & prices (% change at a quarterly rate)

Based on respondent estimates of changes in labour costsand product. Retail prices are based on retail sector productprice estimates.

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Current business conditions

Profitability and employmentstrengthen, trading slips back

The business conditions index improved a touch inDecember, rising by 2 points to -4 index points. In trendterms, conditions were unchanged at -5 index points,which remains clearly below the series long-run average(of +1 point).

Trading, profitability and employment

The improvement in activity in the month reflectedmodest improvements in profitability and employmentconditions, which were partly offset by a slightdeterioration in trading conditions.

The deterioration in trading conditions in Decemberlargely reflected a collapse in wholesale trading (down28), with this industry reporting its worst tradingperformance in the history of the survey. Tradingconditions also deteriorated notably in manufacturing

(down 6) and retail (down 4), while in contrast,conditions picked up in recreation & personal services(up 7), transport & utilities (up 6), construction andmining (both up 3). In levels terms, trading conditionswere weakest in wholesale (-38 points; the weakestoutcome ever reported for this industry), retail (-18) andmanufacturing (-17), while they were strongest inrecreation & personal services (+18), mining (+14) andtransport & utilities (+11).

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2010 2011 2012

Trading Profitability EmploymentConds 1990s recn Conds gfc

All components of business conditions (net bal., s.a.)

Net balance of respondents who regard last monthstrading / profitability / employment performance as good.

Employment conditions were either better or unchanged in December, with finance/ business/ propertythe only exception (where conditions were marginally weaker). The most notable improvements inconditions were in transport & utilities (up 13), construction (up 9) and retail (up 6). In levels terms,

employment conditions were strongest in transport & utilities (+10), while they were weakest inmanufacturing (-12) and wholesale (-10).

Profitability improved across most industries in December, with the exception of manufacturing (down12 points) and wholesale (down 6). Profitability rose marginally in retail, while it improved modestlyeverywhere else. Despite the general improvement, profitability remained very poor in manufacturing(-28), retail (-16), wholesale (-15) and construction (-13), while it was reasonably positive in transport &utilities and recreation & personal services (both +8).

Business conditions components (net balance)

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IV I II III IV I II III IV

2011 2012

Seasonally adjusted Trend

Trading performance

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2011 2012


Profitability

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2011 2012


Employment

Net balance of respondents reporting trading performance / profitability / employment as good or very good (rather than poor orvery poor).

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Current business conditions (cont.)

Forward orders New demand strengthens but still poor

In December, the forward orders index anindicator of domestic demand bounced back, after

falling to the weakest level since May 2009 in theprevious month. While the index improved modestly,forward orders remain subdued overall and suggestlittle improvement in near-term demand.

The improvement in orders in December reflected asharp bounce back in mining orders and a solid risein construction orders however, a heavy decline inmanufacturing orders in the previous month was notunwound. Of most concern was the collapse inwholesale orders (down 16) the only industry toreport a fall in the month which fell to theirweakest level in the history of the survey (-30). Inlevels terms, orders were also weak in

manufacturing (-11), while they were least subduedin construction (+2) and transport & utilities (+1).

Net balance of respondents with more orders from customers lastmonth.

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2010 2011 2012

Seasonally adjusted TrendOrders 1990s recn Orders GFC

Forward orders (net balance)

Capacity utilisation Capacity utilisation trends lower

Capacity utilisation was marginally higher at 79.7%in December, up from 79.5% in November. Despitethe up tick, the overall level of capacity utilisationremained low by historical standards, and the trendmeasure continued to decline. In the month, utilisedcapacity rose solidly in mining (up 1.5 ppts),followed by finance/ business/ property (up 1 ppt),

while it fell considerably in retail (down 2.8 ppts) andconstruction (down 2 ppts). In levels terms, capacityutilisation remained highest in transport & utilities(83.0%) and recreation & personal services (82.0%) with these outcomes consistent with the relativestrength in these industries while it was lowest inmanufacturing (75.0%), construction and retail (both77.7%).

Full capacity is the maximum desirable level of output usingexisting capital equipment.

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2010 2011 2012

Seasonally a djus ted TrendCapU 1990s recn CapU GFC

Capacity utilisation (per cent)

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Stocks De-stoking slows

The stocks index lifted in December, unwindingthe previous months fall but it remains relatively

low overall. The index rose by 2 points to -2 pointsin December, but in trend terms the index easedto its lowest level since October 2009 (-3).

The rise in stocks reflected a considerable rise inconstruction (up 17) and transport & utilitiesstocks (up 11), which was partly offset by a sharpdeterioration in mining stocks (down 24). Thelatter may reflect weather related supplydisruptions in the Pilbara combined with therecent run up in Chinese demand for iron ore. Inlevels terms, the stocks index was lowest inmining (-24), while it was highest in construction(+4) and recreation & personal services (+3).

Net balance of respondents with a rise in stocks last month

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2010 2011 2012

S eas onally a djus ted Trend

Stocks (net balance)

Capital expenditure Capex unchanged at a low level

Capex was unchanged at zero index points inDecember, a relatively low outcome compared tohistory. While mining capex strengthenedconsiderably this was offset by falls in wholesaleand retail investment. Nonetheless, capex did pickup, to a lesser degree, in transport & utilities,manufacturing and construction, though indices inthe latter two industries imply very low levels ofinvestment overall. In levels terms, capex was

highest in mining (+19) and recreation & personalservices (+11), while it was lowest in wholesale(-13) and construction (-11).

Net balance of respondents with an increase in capitalexpenditure last month.

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2011 2012


Capital expenditure (net balance)

Exports Exports falter perhaps due to high A$

The exports index, which represents exportconditions for the economy as a whole, fell by1 point to -4 index points in December. It is likely

that the persistently high AUD is partlyresponsible for the current weakness in exports.

By industry, the exports index fell very sharply inwholesale (down 17), following a modestdeterioration in the previous month, while itstrengthened modestly in construction and mining.In levels terms, the exports index was by far thelowest in wholesale (-24) and manufacturing (-15),while it was highest (and positive) in mining (+5)and transport & utilities (+2).

The exporters sales index, which representsexport conditions for exporting industries, also fell

in the month down 9 to -22 points.Net balance of respondents with an increase in export saleslast month.

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2010 2011 2012

S eas onally a djus ted Trend

Exports (net balance)

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Credit availability Demand for credit falls to (equal) lowest leveldespite easier borrowing conditions

While firms reported somewhat less difficultborrowing conditions in December, demandfor credit fell to its equal lowest level in thehistory of the survey, with the previouslowest demand outcome reported only twomonths prior to this survey. This outcomecomes despite the recent reductions inborrowing costs.

The net borrowing index (easier minusharder) improved by 3 points to -2 indexpoints in December. This months outcomereflected a reduction in the proportion offirms finding borrowing more difficult toobtain, which was partly offset by a fall in

the proportion of firms reporting that financewas easier to obtain. The proportion ofbusinesses requiring finance fellconsiderably, from 50% to 28%; the lowlevel of demand for credit is consistent withthe low level of business investment impliedby the survey (ex. mining), suggesting firmsremain cautious.

In terms of the borrowings required for your business inthe last month, has it been

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III IV I II III IV

2011 2012

More difficult Unchanged E as ier No borrowing required

Borrowing conditions (% of firms)

Variation in business conditions acrosssectors has remained quite pronounced

since late 2009, although the gap hasnarrowed over the second half of 2012. Thiscan be observed by comparing trendconditions of the recently strongestperforming sectors (mining, transport &utilities, recreation & personal services andfinance/ business/ property) with trendconditions of the weakest performingsectors (retail, manufacturing, constructionand wholesale).

The persistent divergence in industryconditions indicates that the Australianeconomy is undergoing a structural

transformation towards mining and service-based industries, and away from traditionalmanufacturing and discretionary retailing.However, the recent softening in miningconditions may restrain the pace of thisrestructuring.

Economy undergoing structuraltransformation

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2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2002 2005 2008 2011

Net

bal.

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Net

bal.

Weak**

Industry business conditions3-month moving average; seasonally adjusted

Strong*

* Strong industries include mining, transport & utilities, recreation & personal

services and finance/business/property

** Weak industries include retail, manufacturing, construction and wholesale

Gap between weak &

strong industry conditions

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Industry sectors

Business confidence Business confidence more upbeat across all industries;except for wholesale.

It appears that business came back from the holiday season feeling reenergised, with confidence

strengthening considerably across all industries in December, with wholesale the only exception, whereconfidence moderated a touch. The biggest improvement in sentiment was in transport & utilities (up 20to +12 points), recreation & personal services (up 15), finance/ business/ property and mining (both up13). It is likely that the resolution of the partial US fiscal cliff provided a solid boost to businessconfidence locally, particularly given the flow through to equity markets, while better data out of Chinahave also alleviated some concerns about the outlook for the worlds second largest economy.Confidence was strongest in transport & utilities (+12) and finance/ business/ property (+10) inDecember, while it was most subdued in wholesale (-10) and mining (-4). It remains to be seen whetherbusiness can hold onto this optimism in the face of weakening demand conditions.

Business confidence by industry (net balance)

3-month moving average

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2011 2012

Mining Manuf Constn

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2011 2012

Retail W sale Transp

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2011 2012

Fin, bus, prop Rec, pers

Business conditions Conditions very bad in wholesale and manufacturing.Recreation & transport remain least subdued

Business conditions generally improved in December, though heavy declines were reported in wholesale(down 11 to -22 points) and manufacturing (down 6). In contrast, conditions strengthened notably intransport & utilities (up 8 to +8 points), followed by construction (up 6) and recreation & personal services(up 3). Overall, conditions were strongest in transport & utilities and recreation & personal services (both+8), while they were weakest in wholesale (-22), manufacturing (-18), retail (-12) and construction (-8) the four industries that have underperformed over most of the post-GFC period.

Business conditions by industry (net balance)


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2011 2012

Mining Manuf Constn

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Retail W sale Transp

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2011 2012

Fin, bus, prop Rec, pers

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States

Business confidence Confidence up in all states, WA much more optimistic.

Business confidence strengthened across all states in December, with massive rise reported in WA (up25 points), more than offsetting a sharp deterioration in the previous month. Just as we had previouslyguessed that a gloomy outlook for the mining sector may have caused the most recent bout of pessimism

in WA, it appears that the sharp rally in the price of iron ore together with a strengthening in the Chineseeconomy may have provided businesses in WA with more optimism in December. Confidence in themonth was strongest in WA (+13) and Queensland (+8) the two largest mining states while it wasweakest in Victoria (-1) and SA (zero). Trend confidence was unchanged at +2 index points. Tasmanianconfidence in trend terms was a little better than the national trend.

Business confidence by state (net balance)


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2011 2012

Australia NSW VIC

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2011 2012

Australia QLD WA

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2011 2012

Australia SA TAS

Business conditions Conditions poor across states; SA & WA very weak

Business conditions were mixed across states in December. Conditions deteriorated heavily in SA (down16) and WA (down 10), which may reflect previous weakness in mining activity still filtering through to thebroader economy. Against that conditions were much stronger in Queensland (up 16). In seasonallyadjusted terms conditions were weakest in SA (-22), WA (-12) and Victoria (-6), while they were leastsubdued in Queensland and NSW (both zero). In Tasmania, trend conditions softened a touch inDecember (down 2 points to zero; on a small sample). Nonetheless, trend conditions in Tasmania appearto have improved markedly over the past twelve months.

Business conditions by state (net balance)


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2011 2012

Australia NSW VIC

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2011 2012

Australia QLD WA

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Australia SA TAS

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Macroeconomic, Industry & Markets ResearchAustralia

Alan Oster Group Chief Economist +(61 3) 8634 2927

Jacqui Brand Personal Assistant +(61 3) 8634 2181

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NAB Business Survey December 2012

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Transcript of NAB Business Survey December 2012