N-W Regional Initiative: Transparency Questionnaire Results Sonia Brown Director – European...
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Transcript of N-W Regional Initiative: Transparency Questionnaire Results Sonia Brown Director – European...
N-W Regional Initiative: Transparency
Questionnaire Results
Sonia BrownDirector – European Strategy &
Environment19 September 2007
2
Welcome
Thank you to all those operators who have responded
18 TSO responses received – good quality of responses
Intention today is to discuss responses received
Explain how responses have been assessed against EFET wish-list – i.e. traffic light approach
Discuss possible areas for improvement in transparency – i.e. potential ‘quick wins’ where information could be released
Discuss the process going forward – i.e. RCC to discuss which information should be released
3
Key findings …
Most TSOs are providing the static information requested
Most TSOs are providing some dynamic data
More capacity information available than flow data (although some TSOs publish historic flows)
Some TSOs already improving transparency
TSOs have indicated willingness to look at further improvements
A lot of information provided on online booking systems vs. public websites
Most TSOs say line-pack data not relevant to systems
4
Areas for discussion today
Prioritisation
Which are the ‘quick wins’ and which are the highest priorities – are these the same?
Timing for delivery
Can we deliver improvements this year? What could be delivered in 2008?
Barriers
What – if any – are the barriers to progress this? Discussion needed to take forward with regulators where appropriate
Not for discussion today = costs
Identify only where this is a barrier – then we can discuss priorities together with RCC
5
How we have displayed information here
Red light indicates: information identified as a
key priority for EFET/IFIEC
Amber light indicates: information identified as a
medium level priority for EFET/IFIEC
Green light indicates: information identified as
lower level priority for EFET/IFIEC
6
Summary of responsesReal time capacity (booked, commercially and technically available
Most TSOs provide information already – improving frequency
Provision of real time gas flows TSOs have indicated willingness to improve
Daily aggregate day-ahead nominations Allow assessment system useage/ impact on costs
Daily aggregate upstream flows Most TSOs know how much gas is entering their system
Daily aggregate demand forecasts Most TSOs undertake for own purposes already
Preliminary imbalance volumes and costs Allows proactive management of balancing position/ costs
I mbalance charges per period real time Allows proactive management of balancing position/ costs
Historic daily flows, interruptions data published
I f already available to TSOs could be published
All non-confidential information published on public website
Moving data from online booking systems/ private website to public site
Daily prompt allocation information Allows quick cost determinationDaily maintenance schedules/ planned outages
Most TSOs already publish – improving frequency
Daily actual measured gas quality values TSOs providing some information – improving frequency/ range of parameters
All information provided in English and national language
GB Case Study
Release of gas flow information
8
GB case study – gas flow data
•Sub-terminal flow info D+2
•Sub-terminal flow info aggregated to north-south split hourly
•Sub-terminal flow info updated every 12 minutes
•Covers NTS terminals and other terminals >10mcm/day
Aim - to provide close to real time data on gas flows into NTS
At end 2004, a proposed enhancement of information provision relating to flows into the NTS was raised
Would increased gas flow information benefit customers?
Ofgem conducted cost-benefit analysis to inform decision
9
GB case study approach
Assume prices include a risk premium which reflects the uncertainty which exists when an offshore outage occurs
Model impact of near real-time flow data on prices
Near real-time flow data reduces uncertainty and the risk premium …
... leads to lower prices and costs to consumers
High impact Medium impact Low impact
Reduction in consumer costs
£59.08m £46.06m £20.03m
10
Impact – outage example• Unexpected closure
of CATS pipeline reduces flow into Teesside to zero
• Information would only have been
available to market via
rumour/speculation in real time previously
11
Short-term price effects
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
D-1 D D+1 D+2 D+3
SA
P (
p/t
herm
)
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
% c
han
ge f
rom
D-1
SAP (BEFORE info release) SAP (AFTER info release) % Change (BEFORE info release) % Change (AFTER info release)
Two CATS outages compared Pre-info release: more volatility, greater
increase in price Post-info release: less volatility, lower
increase in price
12
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
D-1 D D+1 D+2 D+3 D+4 D+5
SA
P (
p/t
herm
)
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
% c
han
ge f
rom
D-1
Y+1 forw ard price (BEFORE info release) Y+1 forw ard price (AFTER info release)
% Change (BEFORE info release) % Change (AFTER info release)
Long-term price effects
Similar impact for longer-term prices
13
Customers and markets can benefit from increased information transparency
Need to consider costs and benefits of releasing information to market
Once it is clear that information can be released – then it is a question for regulators … should the information be released?
Reduces risk premium linked to
uncertainty
Lower prices and volatility in
short term
Lower prices and volatility in longer term too
Benefits to consumers
GB case study shows value of enhanced information provision …
Clearer economic
signals
Moving forward…
Considering the ‘quick wins’
15
Process from here …
Discussion today regarding what is possible – i.e. what info could be released
Discussion of findings with RCC on areas of potential improvement – establish what info should be released –
considerations of costs/benefits
TSOs to develop plans to take actions forward - areas identified as ‘quick wins’
TSO plans reviewed – RCC / stakeholder input
Plans to be signed off by RCC
RCC to monitor progress towards implementation
16
Thank you
Thanks once again for all the helpful responses received – feedback has been very constructive
Potential to make real progress as part of the Gas Regional Initiative
October stakeholder meeting will be key to demonstrate work and progress made to date
Today is a real step in that direction
17