Imaging a World Free of Nuclear WeaponsDay 1: March 16, 2015, Morgan Matthews and Paul Carroll

Welcome!

Welcome!

• What is N Square?

• Who are these people in front of you?

• Paul Carroll, Director of Programs for Ploughshares Fund

• Morgan Matthews, Program Manager + Strategist for N Square

N Square, TEDActive Workshop, March 2015

AgendaTime Activity

3:00 – 3:15 • Welcome + introduction

3:15 – 3:35 • Participant introduction Index introduction exercise

3:35 – 4:00 • Nuclear security trivial pursuit Participants compete in teams for prizes

4:00 – 4:25 • Introduction to problem typology and problem map concept

4:25 – 4:50 • Nuclear Issue, Human Issues Participants explore past, present, and future personas

4:50 – 5:00 • Group Reflection and part 1 conclusion

N Square

ON THE INDEX CARD IN FRONT OF YOU

Name:Where you’re from:

Finish ONE of these sentences:Nuclear weapons are like…. Nuclear weapons are good for…. Nuclear weapons make me think of…

Introductions

N Square, TEDActive Workshop, March 2015

Nuclear Trivial Pursuit

• Just like Pub Trivia

• Teams of 3 to 5

• Pick Team Name

• 3 rounds of 4 questions

• Winners take all!

N Square, TEDActive Workshop, March 2015

Problem Typology and Problem Maps

I got 99 problems…

In a group of 3. Take 3 minutes and brainstorm as many problems as you can…Please write them on sticky notes.

Example:My roommate never does the dishes.

The city buses never arrive on time.

N Square, TEDActive Workshop, March 2015

Problem Types

** The following slides on the Problem Typology have been included with permission from Collective Invention Inc. and Jerry Talley.

Problem Types

Problem Types

Problems are not all the same. A problem typology helps us in two ways:

1. It allows us more quickly to “diagnose” the nature of a given challenge, and

2. It helps us to work systematically to document and then to “prescribe” best practices for addressing the challenge

Problem Typing

numerous possible futures but an undeniable need for a present decision

Puzzles

legitimate competing interests requiring negotiation and compromise

Too Rich

overwhelming number of options and only subjective criteria

two or more seemingly opposing ideas that must both be managed; choosing between them is not an option

large, complex systems with their own momentum

Dilemmas

Six Types of Problems

Uncertainties

Disputes Complexities

problems with objective criteria for solutions

*Adapted with permission from “Problem Solving 2.0” Framework by Jerry Talley

Problem Typing

numerous possible futures but an undeniable need for a present decision

Puzzles

legitimate competing interests requiring negotiation and compromise

Too Rich

overwhelming number of options and only subjective criteria

two or more seemingly opposing ideas that must both be managed; choosing between them is not an option

large, complex systems with their own momentum

Dilemmas

Six Types of Problems

Uncertainties

Disputes Complexities

problems with objective criteria for solutions

*Adapted from “Problem Solving 2.0” Framework by Jerry Talley

Recognizing Problem Types

Building a bridge

Creating a retirement fund

Getting a person to the moon

Examples of Puzzles

*Adapted from “Problem Solving 2.0” Framework by Jerry Talley

Solutions to Problem TypesApproach to Solving a PuzzleSolution Approach:1. Analyze the data; explore empirical nature of situation2. Challenge your assumptions about situation, what makes it problematic, or even

whether it should be solved at all3. Define the problem4. Find earlier or similar versions of the problem which might provide clues for the

present situation5. Separate areas requiring novel solutions vs. areas to apply standard solutions6. Leverage experience, expertise, "best practices", industry standard approaches7. Create options8. Test solutions9. Manage implementation

*Adapted from “Problem Solving 2.0” Framework by Jerry Talley

Problem Typing

numerous possible futures but an undeniable need for a present decision

Puzzles

legitimate competing interests requiring negotiation and compromise

Too Rich

overwhelming number of options and only subjective criteria

two or more seemingly opposing ideas that must both be managed; choosing between them is not an option

large, complex systems with their own momentum

Dilemmas

Six Types of Problems

Uncertainties

Disputes Complexities

problems with objective criteria for solutions

*Adapted from “Problem Solving 2.0” Framework by Jerry Talley

Recognizing Problem Types

Design of website

Look and feel of architectural design

Kitchen remodel

Examples of Too Rich

*Adapted from “Problem Solving 2.0” Framework by Jerry Talley

Solutions to Problem TypesApproach to Exploring Problems that are Too RichSolution Approach:1. Immerse yourself in the data, in its subtlety and nuance; this step is not analytical,

but more intuitive and serendipitous2. Bring Together diverse people and ideas3. Expand your thinking and your options4. Envision a successful outcome, a novel future5. Test most promising ideas6. Follow the energy provoked by the vision; ensure that others begin to contribute

their commitment to the change work required7. Tell the story so that others can see the same future vision

*Adapted from “Problem Solving 2.0” Framework by Jerry Talley

Problem Typing

numerous possible futures but an undeniable need for a present decision

Puzzles

legitimate competing interests requiring negotiation and compromise

Too Rich

overwhelming number of options and only subjective criteria

two or more seemingly opposing ideas that must both be managed; choosing between them is not an option

large, complex systems with their own momentum

Dilemmas

Six Types of Problems

Uncertainties

Disputes Complexities

problems with objective criteria for solutions

*Adapted from “Problem Solving 2.0” Framework by Jerry Talley

Recognizing Problem Types

How many children will enroll in San Francisco kindergartens in 2020?

What funding levels can we rely on as California confronts its budget crisis?

How will social media transform the political process in California?

Examples of Uncertainties

*Adapted from “Problem Solving 2.0” Framework by Jerry Talley

Solutions to Problem TypesApproach to Planning for UncertaintiesSolution Approach:1. Define the problem2. Identify key variables that define relevant scenarios3. Imagine scenarios4. Find commonalities5. Build indicators6. Watch indicators7. Monitor and react

*Adapted from “Problem Solving 2.0” Framework by Jerry Talley

Problem Typing

numerous possible futures but an undeniable need for a present decision

Puzzles

legitimate competing interests requiring negotiation and compromise

Too Rich

overwhelming number of options and only subjective criteria

two or more seemingly opposing ideas that must both be managed; choosing between them is not an option

large, complex systems with their own momentum

Dilemmas

Six Types of Problems

Uncertainties

Disputes Complexities

problems with objective criteria for solutions

*Adapted from “Problem Solving 2.0” Framework by Jerry Talley

Recognizing Problem Types

Labor and management fight over salaries, benefits, and working conditions. Common concern: health and growth of the firm

Environmentalists, developers, and local government struggle over siting of a new freeway. Common concern: making the locale a welcoming place to live

Property owners and cities fight over how much development to allow around Lake Tahoe. Common concern: preserve value of the Lake

Examples of Disputes

*Adapted from “Problem Solving 2.0” Framework by Jerry Talley

Solutions to Problem TypesApproach to Resolving a DisputeSolution Approach:1. Create a safe forum (norms, structure, facilitation)2. Call for candor and advocacy3. Highlight the common interests4. Push for the interests behind the positions5. Demand adherence to the rules of engagement

*Adapted from “Problem Solving 2.0” Framework by Jerry Talley

Problem Typing

numerous possible futures but an undeniable need for a present decision

Puzzles

legitimate competing interests requiring negotiation and compromise

Too Rich

overwhelming number of options and only subjective criteria

two or more seemingly opposing ideas that must both be managed; choosing between them is not an option

large, complex systems with their own momentum

Dilemmas

Six Types of Problems

Uncertainties

Disputes Complexities

problems with objective criteria for solutions

*Adapted from “Problem Solving 2.0” Framework by Jerry Talley

Recognizing Problem Types

Low cost and High quality

Centralized control and Local customization

Rewarding the individual to motivate effort and Rewarding the team to support cooperation

Examples of Dilemmas

*Adapted from “Problem Solving 2.0” Framework by Jerry Talley

Solutions to Problem TypesApproach to Managing a DilemmaSolution Approach:1. Challenge advocates to become partners2. Understand how goals are linked3. Build new relationships to replace conflict with collaboration4. Capture the process; it's even more important than the outcome5. Design a process for experimentation and learning6. Define early warning signs of imbalance

*Adapted from “Problem Solving 2.0” Framework by Jerry Talley

Problem Typing

numerous possible futures but an undeniable need for a present decision

Puzzles

legitimate competing interests requiring negotiation and compromise

Too Rich

overwhelming number of options and only subjective criteria

two or more seemingly opposing ideas that must both be managed; choosing between them is not an option

large, complex systems with their own momentum

Dilemmas

Six Types of Problems

Uncertainties

Disputes Complexities

problems with objective criteria for solutions

*Adapted from “Problem Solving 2.0” Framework by Jerry Talley

Recognizing Problem Types

Finding scarce talent in national labor markets

Reforming the health care system

Improving a sour organizational culture

Examples of Complexities

*Adapted from “Problem Solving 2.0” Framework by Jerry Talley

Solutions to Problem TypesApproach to Living in a ComplexitySolution Approach:1. Map the system...as best you can2. Define the evolving entities3. Discover how the system "learns"4. Find the health in the system.5. Look for the smallest, high-leverage actions6. Enrich feedback to the system7. Respect the power of symbolic acts8. Learn from interactive cycles of small "nudges" to the system

*Adapted from “Problem Solving 2.0” Framework by Jerry Talley

Categorize your problems…

Take 5 minutes to categorize your problems using the problem typology framework.

N Square, TEDActive Workshop, March 2015

Nuclear Security = Super Wicked Problem

What is a Wicked Problem?

A wicked problem is a problem that is difficult or impossible to solve because of incomplete, contradictory, and changing requirements that are often difficult to recognize. The use of term "wicked" here has come to denote resistance to resolution, rather than evil. Moreover, because of complex interdependencies, the effort to solve one aspect of a wicked problem may reveal or create other problems.

N Square, TEDActive Workshop, March 2015

Wicked Problem Framework Horst Rittel, 1972

Wicked Problems1. No definitive formulation.2. Problems bleed into each other.3. Solutions can be only good or bad, not true or false.4. Teams must literally make things up as they go along.5. More than one explanation, each depending on perspective.6. A symptom of another problem.7. No definitive scientific test.8. Trial and error tests are difficult.9. Every wicked problem is unique.10. Those working on wicked problems must assume responsibility for outcomes

N Square, TEDActive Workshop, March 2015

Super Wicked Problem FrameworkLevin, Cashole, Auld and Bernstein, Policy Sciences, 2012

Wicked Problem Framework +

11. Time is running out.12. No central authority.13. Those seeking to solve the problem are also causing it.14. Present policies discount future irrationality.

N Square, TEDActive Workshop, March 2015

Approach to Super Wicked Problems…Adapted from work of Dr. Jonathan Rosenhead, London School of Economics

• Get multiple perspectives.• Use group interaction and iteration.• Generate ownership of the problem formulation through stakeholderparticipation and transparency.• Facilitate a visual representation of the problem space for systematicgroup exploration of a solution space.• Focus on relationships between discrete alternatives.• Use plain language to break down “tribal” boundaries and facilitateshared understanding and meaning-making.

N Square, TEDActive Workshop, March 2015

Nuclear Security Problems

• Non-proliferation• Safety and security• Disarmament

N Square, TEDActive Workshop, March 2015

Nuclear Issues, Human Issues

Nuclear Issues, Human Issues

A Persona is a fictionalized character that is a composite of many people, a research based but fictional character - we use them because it helps us focus on issues and characteristics that we know that many other people share - an experience of a single human that representative of a lot people like them.

N Square, TEDActive Workshop, March 2015

Reflection + Conclusion

You came here today to a session called “Imaging a world free of nuclear weapons” – we’ve learned a little bit about the nuclear security problem and had the chance to experience it from the perspective of another.

What is going to stick with you about that? What will you be thinking about before you come back on Wednesday?What were the most surprising things you discovered?

N Square, TEDActive Workshop, March 2015

Thank you!

Imaging a World Free of Nuclear WeaponsPart 2: March 18, 2015, Morgan Matthews and Paul Carroll

Welcome!

Agenda

TIME ACTIVITY NOTES12:45 – 12:50 Welcome back! Quick Overview of the day

12:50 – 1:15 Explore an area of the

problem map and wear the expert hat

Expert Crash Course

1:15 – 1:30 Team presentations Each team presents their expert learning1:30– 1:40 Inside the belly of the

beastSo… what’s missing?

1:40 – 2:05 Idea generation/Opportunity Identification

Reflecting on the problems on the “problem map”, participants generate ideas on where there might be opportunities.

2:05 – 2:10 Place your bets If you had $2Million, what would you invest in?

2:10 – 2:15 Closing Survey, Next Steps…

Outcomes•Deep dive into areas of the problem map•Brainstorm ideas and opportunities

V 0.001 Problem + Opportunity Map

Explore an Area of Problem Map, Wear Expert Hat

Explore the Problem Map, Wear Expert Hat

• Jig Saw Exercise – ‘Rapid Learning’• 10 MINS – Read your resource; use sticky

notes!• 10 MINS – Share with your team “fellow

experts”• 5 MINS – Create a creative 2 min presentation

about your topic demonstrating what you’ve learned

N Square, TEDActive Workshop, March 2015

Team Presentations

Inside the Belly of the Beast

Making the Abstract Tangible

N Square, TEDActive Workshop, March 2015

The Nuclear Family Generations

The Elders - 1940s-1960s US, USSR/Russia, UK, France, China - Mature doctrines, systems, NPT states

The Adolescents - 1970s-1990s Israel, India, Pakistan - immature or unknown doctrine, systems, non-NPT

The Terrible Twos North Korea - embryonic, opaque, left the NPT

N Square, TEDActive Workshop, March 2015

Idea Generation + Opportunity Identification

Idea generation/Opportunity Identification

Reflecting on your own experience and what you’ve just heard - generate ideas on opportunities and levers for change.

Where do you think the most promising opportunities are? Try make them as specific as possible.

N Square, TEDActive Workshop, March 2015

Idea generation/Opportunity Identification

Exe: Emerging technologies presents an opportunity – are you talking about AI, sensor technology, satellite imaging? And why? What is the opportunity?

Specific exe: I think that satellite imaging is an opportunity because the pixels per inch are improving rapidly and can allow us to monitor facilities around the world.

N Square, TEDActive Workshop, March 2015

Idea generation/Opportunity Identification

• 10 Mins to ideate as many opportunities as you can with your group-please use sticky notes to capture ideas

• 10 Mins: to pick and refine top 2 – write the name of your idea on the flip chart

• 1 Min Per Team: Present back your top 2 ideas; think sales pitch for millions of dollars

N Square, TEDActive Workshop, March 2015

PICK YOUR PONY!

Pick Your Pony

If you had $2Million dollars – which of these ideas would you fund?

Place your bets (dots, 1 dots represents $1Million)

N Square, TEDActive Workshop, March 2015

Reflection + Conclusion

You came to this session called “Imaging a world free of nuclear weapons” – we’ve learned a little bit about the nuclear security problem and had the chance to experience it from the perspective of another, and generated for new ideas on how to approach and solve parts of the problem.

What is going to stick with you about that?

What were the most surprising things you discovered?

N Square, TEDActive Workshop, March 2015

Reflection + Conclusion

• We will e-mail debrief materials – including a survey, information on how to stay engaged, and the problem typology. Please sign up on the e-mail sheet if you didn’t register through TED.

Contact Information:Paul Carrol: pcarroll@ploughshares.org Morgan Matthews: morgan@nsquarecollaborative.org Website: www.nsquarecollaborative.org

THANK YOU!!!

N Square, TEDActive Workshop, March 2015

Thank you!