Mylovanov eerc economic-political-situation-in-ukraine (1)
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Transcript of Mylovanov eerc economic-political-situation-in-ukraine (1)
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Economic and Political Situation in Ukraine
Tymofiy Mylovanov, U of Pittsburgh
Also, VoxUkraine+iMoRe teams
Yuriy Gorodnichenko, UC Berkeley
Yuriy Zhukov, U of Michigan
Natalia Shapoval, Kyiv School of Economics
Dmitry Ostapchuk, VoxUkraine
Mikhail Minakov
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Dynamics of the violence
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Macroeconomic Outlook
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OUTPUT
-30
-20
-10
010
pe
rcen
t, y
ea
r on
ye
ar
2013Q12013Q2
2013Q32013Q4
2014Q12014Q2
2014Q32014Q4
2015Q12015Q2
2015Q3
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OUTPUT
Economy was in a recession before the Maidan movement.
-30
-20
-10
010
pe
rcen
t, y
ea
r on
ye
ar
2013Q12013Q2
2013Q32013Q4
2014Q12014Q2
2014Q32014Q4
2015Q12015Q2
2015Q3
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OUTPUT
Free fall until early 2015.
-30
-20
-10
010
pe
rcen
t, y
ea
r on
ye
ar
2013Q12013Q2
2013Q32013Q4
2014Q12014Q2
2014Q32014Q4
2015Q12015Q2
2015Q3
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OUTPUT
Notes: Real GDP in 2015Q3 grew 0.5% relative to 2015Q2 and preliminary data suggest
1.5% growth in 2015Q4 relative to 2015Q3.
-30
-20
-10
010
pe
rcen
t, y
ea
r on
ye
ar
2013Q12013Q2
2013Q32013Q4
2014Q12014Q2
2014Q32014Q4
2015Q12015Q2
2015Q3
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OUTPUT VS. PRIVATE CONSUMPTION
Massive fall in private consumption, a sign of economic disaster
-30
-20
-10
010
pe
rcen
t, y
ea
r on
ye
ar
2013Q12013Q2
2013Q32013Q4
2014Q12014Q2
2014Q32014Q4
2015Q12015Q2
2015Q3
GDP
Private consumption
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INFLATION
-50
510
15
pe
rce
nt, m
on
th o
n m
onth
2013 2014 2015 2016
PPI CPI
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INFLATION
Spike (one-time!) in early 2015
-50
510
15
pe
rce
nt, m
on
th o
n m
onth
2013 2014 2015 2016
PPI CPI
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INFLATION
Disinflation and deflation recently
-50
510
15
pe
rce
nt, m
on
th o
n m
onth
2013 2014 2015 2016
PPI CPI
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Political Outlook
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Dynamics of the violence
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Реформи?
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President consolidates power
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Political outlook for Ukraine
Weak majority
President continues to consolidate power
No signs of substantive polarization
No signs of change of pace in reform legislation
No signs of change in fighting corruption
Progressive legislation passed
The situation continues to be fragile
elections?
Ukraine needs to clean up governance in order to
realize growth potential