MYERS: DIGITAL AD SHARE STILL GROWING · mobile/apps advertising, Olympics, World Cup and election...
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[email protected] Copyright 2018.The Daily News of TV Sales Thursday, March 1, 2018
MYERS: DIGITAL AD SHARE STILL GROWINGFACEBOOK, GOOGLE, AMAZON DOMINATE Veteran forecaster Jack Myers says real ad spending for 2018 will only be in the 2.2% to 2.7% range. That excludes mobile/apps advertising, Olympics, World Cup and election year spending. And while that is growth, Myers notes that the previous three election years saw real ad spending growth of 6.1% in 2012, 4.2% in 2014 and 6.1% in 2016. “The 2018 economic realities for the ad economy are flat to slight increases for media companies that are unable to capitalize on election-/Olympics-year cyclical growth,” he noted in an online commentary. Jack Myers TomorrowToday projects overall 2019 ad spending, excluding mobile/apps advertising, will decline 1.0%-1.5%. Mobile is projected to increase 20% annually to $42.3 billion in 2019. Myers’ company is offering the entire forecast through 2020 for sale at this link. While overall ad spending is hardly growing, digital advertising is still growing and taking share way from traditional media. Myers says Facebook, Google and Amazon are poised to capture the lion’s share of growth in 2018 and 2019 U.S. ad spending. That’s based on a survey of more than 1,200 U.S. brand marketers and agency executives conducted in the fourth quarter of 2017. It asked respondents to identify how likely they are to increase investments with 55 individual media companies in the next 12 months. Facebook ranked first with 64% of qualified respondents stating increases were probable/definite, followed by Amazon and Google/YouTube with 55% responding positively. Ranking fourth was Hulu, with 43% likely/probable to increase investments. The fifth ranked company, AT&T Adworks, dropped to 38%, followed closely by Roku and Oath. Only an average of 23% of respondents expect any budget increases for media categories other than the top three digital players (Facebook, Google and Amazon). And only 11% of respondents say they are unlikely to underwrite increases for these three companies. How did TV do? 26% said they would definitely or probably increase spending on Syndication/Specialty TV, while another 26% said they definitely/probably would not. The numbers were similar for General Entertainment TV Networks: 25% were inclined to boost spending and 23% were inclined not to. For News/Sports, the likely boosters were 25% and those on the negative side 28%. Of course, in all three cases that leaves around half undecided. Only 19% indicated they definitely/probably would increase ad spending on Targeted Cable, while 30% said they definitely/probably would not. For Ethnic media, the percentages were 20% likely to increase and 35% not. To see the chart, click here.(Continued on page 3)
ADVERTISER NEWS Pizza Hut is the new official pizza sponsor of the NFL. The announcement comes a day after Papa John’s severed its ties with the league to focus on deals with specific teams and players. The sponsorship will begin with the 2018 NFL Draft, which will be held near Pizza Hut’s headquarters in North Dallas. Pizza Hut expects the deal will be help it to expand to new markets and bolster its digital and delivery initiatives at its 7,500 restaurants....Apparel retailer TJX on Wednesday beat analysts’ estimates for holiday-quarter same-store sales
as discounts drew more shoppers to its Marmaxx and TJX Canada stores, sending its shares to a record high. Same-store sales rose 4 percent in the reported quarter, beating estimates of 2.1 percent. Marmaxx, the company’s biggest and most profitable unit which
includes T.J. Maxx and Marshalls stores, recorded comparable-store sales that rose 3 percent, beating estimates of 1.5 percent....Lowe’s says fourth quarter sales fell 1.8% to $15.49 billion, down from $15.8 billion in the year-ago quarter, but its same-store sales increased 4.1%. Same-store sales in U.S. locations rose 3.7%. Lowe’s stock took a dive after the report, probably In part because Home Depot last week reported a fourth quarter revenue rise of 7.5% to $23.9 billion, and a same-store sales rise 7.5% over the year-ago quarter, beating analyst forecasts...J.C. Penney has launched an exclusive line of girls’ apparel and bedding inspired by Nickelodeon star and social media sensation JoJo Siwa. The line is currently available on the retailer’s website and will debut in 600 Penney stores beginning tomorrow....CEC Entertainment Inc. has named Ashley Zickefoose as chief marketing and concept officer. CEC owns and franchises 607 Chuck E. Cheese’s units and 147 Peter Piper Pizza locations in 47 states and 13 countries and territories....Walmart is banning sales of guns to people younger than 21, becoming the second major retailer to make such a move Wednesday following the Parkland, Fla. school shooting. Walmart said it would make the policy change “as quickly as possible” and said it would require shoppers to be 21 to buy ammunition....Best Buy is closing all of its 250 mobile-phone stores by end of May, the latest retail chain to shrink its footprint as shopping habits shift and the smartphone market matures. The mobile stores were introduced to capitalize on the nascent but fast growing cellphone market. In 2011, Best Buy executives laid out plans to open as many as 800 even as they closed some of the bigger boxes....Fooddive.com says Coca-Cola plans to cut between 250 and 350 jobs — mainly management positions at its Atlanta headquarters — as part of an ongoing reorganization. The layoffs will start this week and be staggered during the next few months.
PAGE 2 The Daily News of TV Sales @ www.spotsndots.com
NETWORK NEWS A new one-hour talk show hosted by Alec Baldwin has been picked up by ABC. The show titled Sundays with Alec Baldwin will feature one-on-one conversations with people from American pop culture. The network has scheduled a sneak peek of the show for this Sunday, March 4th at 11:35 PM (ET), following the 90th Annual Academy Awards telecast. The first show will feature intimate and engaging conversations with two comedic icons. First, Baldwin will have a conversation with his long-time friend Jerry Seinfeld on the state of comedy in the current social and political climate, and his life before and after Seinfeld. Next will be a conversation with Kate McKinnon of NBC’s Saturday Night Live. She will discuss her experiences at the long-running sketch comedy show and her early childhood performances that borrowed from scandalous headlines, and the cast of characters that have made her a household name. Baldwin also hosts, and executive produces Match Game, now in its third season on ABC……The CBS untitled multi-camera pilot from Tim McAuliffe and Austen Earl has cast Australian actor Felix Mallard to play opposite Damon Wayans Jr. The pilot centers on a 30-something couple with Wayans Jr. set as the husband. They grow tired of their mundane life and start to reconnect with their younger, cooler selves when an emerging pop star, played by Mallard, is drawn into their super normal suburban life and moves into their home. Mallard previously starred in the Australian series Neighbours……Film actor Toby Kebbell (Planet of the Apes, Kong: Skull Island, The Fantastic Four, Warcraft, RocknRolla) has been tapped to play the male lead in the new ABC pilot Salvage. He joins previously announced female lead Charity Wakefield. Kebbell will play an ex-cop who is drawn into a murder investigation in his rural Florida hometown……The untitled Fox pilot from Ilene Chaiken and Melissa Scrivner Love has cast Mark Moses in a lead role. Moses’ credits include Desperate Housewives, Mad Men, Law & Order True Crime, Salvation, Berlin Station and The Last Ship. He joins a cast that includes Katie Holmes as FBI Special Agent Hazel Otis, who is in the middle of an investigation of a domestic terrorism threat when a personal indiscretion shatters her life and threatens her career. Moses will pay her boss at the FBI in the pilot……The NBC comedy Superstore has been renewed for a fourth season by the network. The renewal comes in the middle of the show’s 22-episode third season. So far this season, Superstore is up 6% versus one year ago in adults 18-49 averaging a 1.7 rating and up 3% in total viewers averaging 5.195 million, according to Nielsen……. Veteran actress Lea Thompson (Caroline in the City) has signed on to star as a series regular in Our People. The single-camera project is from Lee Daniels (Encore, Star) and Modern Family executive producer Vali Chandrasekaran. Thomson will play a feisty and opinionated fleece-and-Birkenstock hippie in the comedy directed by Trent O’Donnell. The project is based on the Israeli format Nevsu: A Young Multicultural Couple.
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NBC CUTS PRIMETIME AD UNITS NBCUniversal announced Wednesday it’s reducing the number of spots that air during prime-time TV shows in an effort to boost the value of its advertising. The company plans to cut the number of ads in commercial breaks by 20% and to decrease advertising time by 10% during original prime-time programming on broadcast and cable networks. The move is an apparent response to the changing habits of viewers who are spending more time streaming video content online from Netflix, Amazon and other services that can be watched commercial-free. Also, a growing number of viewers record TV shows and watch them on their own schedule, but many don’t watch the commercials during playback. “The industry knows that television is already the most effective advertising medium there is, but we need to make the experience better for viewers,” said Linda Yaccarino, chairman of advertising and client partnerships at NBCUniversal, was quoted in the Wall Street Journal, adding, “We’re reimagining the advertising experience for consumers, marketers, and the entire industry.” NBC also announced a new :60 commercial pod in the first or last break of a show that will be dedicated to up to two advertisers. The goal is to create a “stronger impact with viewers.” TV networks for the last few years have been experimenting with new ad formats and reducing ad loads. For example, Fox introduced six-second TV ads this summer. Two years ago, NBC said it would reduce ads on “Saturday Night Live” by 30%. Around that time, Time Warner Inc.’s Turner also said it would like to cut advertising by 50% in a few dramas.
After years of bad publicity, SeaWorld’s CEO is stepping down. He wasn’t sure what was worse – emptying his desk, or the seals clapping
as he left.
The Daily News of TV Sales @ www.spotsndots.com PAGE 3
ONLINE GROCERY PRICE WAR Walmart online grocery prices are edging closer to Amazon, with only a slim gap separating prices between the two retailers, according to a new study by e-commerce analytics firm Profitero. After analyzing pricing for 21,000 products in grocery, beauty and household supplies, Profitero found only a 1.8% average difference between Walmart’s and Amazon’s prices for grocery. Target and Jet.com were both found to be, on average, about 6% higher in grocery than Amazon. Profitero says Walmart is getting aggressive with price matching. The retailer matched Amazon prices on 53% of all CPG products studied, and 67% in grocery. Also, the Amazon Prime Pantry program is paying off, helping create price separation from the competition. Prices on products listed in the Prime Pantry program average about 11% less than those found at other retailers. “Amazon still reigns as the low-price leader online, but it’s evident that Walmart is making grocery a key battleground for challenging that leadership,” said Keith Anderson, SVP of Strategy & Insights at Profitero. Amazon regained its price lead over Walmart in beauty compared with Profitero’s October findings. Jet.com is now nipping at Amazon’s heels in the beauty category with a price gap of just 1.4% between the two. Walmart beauty prices averaged about 5% more, while Target was almost 7% higher. Specialty retailers continue to lose ground in the battle for price supremacy. Online beauty prices at Walgreens.com and CVS.com averaged about 30% higher than Amazon, the Profitero analysts reported.
AUTOMOTIVE UPDATE Forecasters are in agreement that February sales of new cars and light trucks will be down when the manufacturers report sales today. Cox Automotive and Edmunds each expect a drop of 4% in unit sales from a year ago. The joint forecast from J.D. Power and LMC Automotive is for a 2.1% decline……Lithia Motors has expanded in the Pittsburgh area, acquiring Day Automotive Group in suburban Monroeville, PA. The Day group is estimated to generate $340 million in steady state annual revenue. Day joins Baierl as the second acquisition in 10 months in the Pittsburgh metro area and creates a combined platform with nearly $1 billion in annual revenue. Lithia now has 179 stores representing 30 brands in 18 states.
MYERS: DIGITAL AD SHARE STILL GROWING(Continued from page 1) Turning back to the forecast, Myers predicts that, between 2010 and 2020, annual total marketing communications legacy/linear spend will decline by $190 billion. Annual digital marketing communications spend is expected to reach $245.8 billion by 2020: 41.2% of total U.S. marketing communications spend. So, by 2021, digital marketing communications spend is expected to represent 50% of total U.S. marketing communications spend.
HOME PRICES STILL RISING The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index rose 6.3% in December, with prices continuing to rise despite higher mortgage rates. It was an even bigger gain than the 6.1% boost in November. The reason? Record low inventory, which continued to elevate prices through the end of last year. “The rise in home prices should be causing the same nervous wonder aimed at the stock market after its recent bout of volatility,” said David Blitzer, managing director and chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones.
He noted that the national index, which reached its low point in 2012, is up 38% in six years after adjusting for inflation, a real annual gain of 5.3%. The index’s average annual real gain from 1976 to 2017 was 1.3%. Seattle continued to lead the 20-City index in December, posting a 12.7% year-over-year price increase, followed by Las Vegas up 11.1% and San Francisco 9.2%.
LESS SPLURGING WITH TAX REFUNDS While 65% of U.S. taxpayers expect to get a refund this year, a survey by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Prosper Insights & Analytics finds that 49% of them say they will put it into savings. That’s up from 48% last year and the highest level in the 12-year history of the survey. Meanwhile, 35% will pay down debt, in line with last year and the lowest level since 2016—all far below the peak of 48% seen during the recession in 2009. Only 22% will spend this year’s refunds on everyday expenses, the second-lowest level in survey history after last year’s 21%. Beyond that, 12% will use the money for a vacation; 10% will “splurge” on dining out, trips to a spa or apparel; 9% will invest in home improvements; and 8% will make major purchases ranging from a television or furniture to a car.
Anheuser-Busch says it will begin selling a new organic beer called “Michelob Ultra Pure Gold.” As in, “Sorry,
all we have left is Michelob Ultra Pure Gold.”
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